Psst – Want a free copy of Windows?

Granted, this post is not real estate related. However, since Rain City Guide is at the intersection of Real Estate Ave & Technology Blvd, I figured the goings on at Microsoft Way might interest some Rain City Readers.

Windows VistaFor good or ill, Microsoft is still the 800 lb gorilla of the technology industry. Because of this, the success of the company has sizable impact on the price & availability of housing in the region. Therefore, it’s fair to say, that I’m hoping that Windows Vista won’t suck, and its success will lead to another growth spurt at the company which will increase the value of every-body’s home in the greater Redmond/Seattle area. (That way both the geeks & realtors will be happy)

Anyway, the purpose of this post if to inform the geeky among us that Microsoft is having a Windows Vista Install Fair this weekend. Here’s what you need to do in order to get a free copy Windows Vista.

  • Have a computer that your willing to sacrifice that meets the following criteria..
    • Your important data has been backed up! (This is pre-release software after all)
    • Operating System is Windows XP SP2 (Home or Professional) English x86.
    • Intel/AMD Processor running at 1 GHz or higher.
    • Minimum of 512MB of RAM.
    • Video adapter is AGP4x/8x or PCIe with a minimum of 64MB of RAM.
    • Hard Disk has a minimum of 10GB of free space to allow for upgrade.
    • Has a DVD-ROM Drive.
  • Send mail to Windows Vista Install Fair Registration (wvifr@microsoft.com) and inform them that you wish to participate in either the Saturday (March 18th 2006) 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM session or the Sunday (March 19th 2006) 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM session.
  • Bring yourself and your computer over to Building 27 on the Microsoft Campus at the scheduled time.
  • Enjoy your free copy of Windows Vista Ultimate Edition (February 2006 CTP Version) 

Well, I’m looking forward to playing around with all the cool new features and using an OS built for the 21st century. Here’s to hoping my laptop enjoys the experience!

Crossing the MLS moat

One of the things I’ve noticed over the past few months is that an MLS feed is hard to get a hold of. The NWMLS places a 2 internet feed limit on brokers and agents are essentially handcuffed to their brokers IT decisions. The problem is that software engineers can’t develop new web sites for brokers unless they already have feed access and brokers can’t give you their feed access unless you already have their web site completed for them. Needless to say, this helps explain why online real estate search & estimation are relatively immature technologies, because the folks who could mature them, are kept out of the castle.

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Although, I got past the black knight guarding the castle, I can’t help but wonder how much better the technology would’ve been if things were less restrictive. This stance imposes artificially high technology switching costs on brokers. Oh well, in a way, I’m kind of happy there’s a black knight. The fewer unhappy Micro-softies that get into the castle, the easier it will be for me to get my share of the King’s gold.

Did you sell your SOLD before the bell?

As you may know, HouseValues (NASDAQ: SOLD) is a publicly traded company. As you may not know, they reported their earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2005, this afternoon.

To quote the highlights from the press release from MSN MoneyCentral

“For the year, HouseValues reported annual revenue and net income growth of 82 percent and 101 percent respectively. For the quarter, HouseValues reported revenue of $25.2 million, an increase of 75 percent from the comparable quarter last year. Fourth quarter 2005 net income was $4.0 million, up 117 percent from the prior year. Fourth quarter 2005 earnings per diluted share were $0.15 compared to $0.08 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2004. Net income for the fourth quarter and the year included an increase of $1.2 million as a result of the favorable settlement of a state tax audit.”[photopress:hv_logo.gif,full,alignright]

Blah, blah, Growth Opportunity, blah, blah…

“A recent National Association of Realtors study showed that 77 percent of consumers used the Internet as part of the home search process in 2005. The study also found that buyers who use the Internet to search for a home are more likely to buy through a real estate agent than non-Internet users.* Real estate and mortgage professionals are projected to follow consumer behavior, dedicating more of their marketing spend online than to any other medium by 2009, according to Borrell Associates.”

Blah, blah, Mortgage Opportunity, blah, blah, blah….

“On November 3, 2005, HouseValues announced its acquisition of The Loan Page, Inc. TheLoanPage.com helps consumers find the best deal on all of their home related financing needs by providing them with up to four competitive bids from the nation’s leading lenders.”

So far so good, right? Not according to “Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact” nature of the Street…

To quote another press release from MSN MoneyCentral

“Shares of HouseValues Inc. plunged in aftermarket trading Tuesday, after the company reported a jump in fourth-quarter profit, but said its first quarter and full-year 2006 results would come in well below Wall Street expectations. Shares of the online subscription service for real estate agents and mortgage bankers dropped $3.26, or 25 percent, to $10.14 in after-hours electronic trading, after closing down 25 cents at $13.50 on the Nasdaq.””HouseValues said it expects first quarter 2006 earnings of 3 cents to 4 cents per share, including about 3 cents per share in stock option expenses. Revenue is projected at $25.5 million to $26 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 14 cents per share, not including stock options, on revenue of $28.8 million.”

What’s your take on this? Does management think an upcoming war with Zillow is going to hurt HouseValues earnings? Is the slowing housing market at fault? Have enough people seen Ardell’s “Bottom feeder post” to cause this market cap hemorrhaging? Can TheLoanPage.com mount a credible threat to LendingTree.com? Can Batman & Robin save us?

Conspiracy theories and comments?

How cool is our home search? Ice Cold!

In case you haven’t dropped by our home search tool recently, we’ve made some improvementsicecube. Changes include…

Market Analysis Tool Improvements
We thought it would be helpful, if you could get a second opinion when you get an estimate. So, we’ve made arrangements with Zillow to use their Zestimate web services on our Market Analysis page. That way, when you type in a property address, we’ll give you our estimate, get your property’s Zestimate (and the link to it’s page on Zillow), and save you some typing.

Radius Search
Want to find the all houses, within 2 miles of your house or office? Now you can here! And yes, the search results pages are Bookmark-able, RSS-able, and Google Earth-able. (I wouldn’t have it any other way).

Improved Location Search
The list boxes on the location search page are multi-selectable. Big whoop, I hear you say? Well, ours doesn’t refresh the entire page when you change the city or download a big city / community list when you first navigate to the page. Yes, you are seeing AJAX in action. It’s not something most people are going notice, until they wonder “Gee how come your page is so much faster than all the other ones”?

As always, the results from the improved location search are Bookmark-able, RSS-able, and Google Earth-able.

What’s next
Well, it’s a given that at some point I’m going have to have Virtual Earth or Google Maps integration, instead of static Yahoo Maps. If I’m going to compete with the big boys of real estate search, I gotta do maps. I’m probably going to have to create profiles, so you can save your searches, favorite properties, favorite places and other stuff that requires server side persistence.

What features would consumers and realtors like to see next? I’m more interested in hearing what realtors would like to see next because they are the ones who’ll be writing the check, when I eventually decide to release this. I have a billion ideas for what I’m going to do, but I’d get to some more feedback to find out what features I should implement next. Otherwise, I’ll continue to make it up as I go along…

Robbie

The Lame List – Real Estate Web Sites that Suck

evccliftIn a recent post, Galen said “And no, it’s not what Windermere or ZipRealty already do: their sites s-u-c-k compared to true consumer-oriented sites like Amazon.com and Google.”.

Now, comparing nearly any web site to Amazon or Google isn’t a fair comparission. Google & Amazon have 1) many of the best software engineers on the planet working for them and 2) they have thousands of them working on their web site. Microsoft (which is in the same league as Google & Amazon) is said to spend over $100 million/year on it’s corporate web site (I’m sure they spend even more on MSN)!

The only real estate company that I can think of that could afford that level of R&D is Cendant (they own Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA). Ironically enough they also own Orbitz & CheapTickets.com (who are Expedia competitors). The vast majority of brokers are probably smallish companies that under-invest in technology (and Cendant is probably happy enough with the status quo that they aren’t going to rock the boat until the waves of change force it upon them).

Now, I do think ZipRealty’s site is medicore and Windermere’s site is average. But suck is way too strong a word. Could their sites be better? Yeah. But given they aren’t billion dollar internet/software companies with multi-million dollar R&D budgets, I think the sites are OK. I could do better, but don’t mistake a medicore site for one that sucks.

What I want you to do is tell me about the WORST agent & broker web sites out there. I only want to hear about the truly awful. Let me give you an example of how bad it can be.

Teri Herrera, is a very successful agent at John L. Scott with whom I purchased my first house with. However her web site makes me cringe in horror. Fortunately, she’s a much better agent than her web site would suggest, but her site is nothing but a flash link farm. Nothing of value other than links to other places and it’s wrapped up as an obnoxious flash app. At least ZipRealty & Windermere have branded MLS searches, instead of being just a link farm or framing somebody else content.

See, ZipRealty & Windermere look pretty good now, don’t they.

Robbie

Real Estate Search is an evil hard problem

google evilOne of my pet peeves about most real estate search sites is that I can’t search on what I want. All of them, ask the same 4 or 5 questions. Where is your house located? How much can you afford? How many bedrooms? Blah, blah, blah..

Well, I’m going to attempt to change that. I want to find houses with CAT-5 wiring built in! I want to find houses with home theaters & wine cellars. I want to find a home with air conditioning (believe it or not, summer is coming). And now, I can. I proudly present our new search remarks feature.

Using the power of SQL Server‘s Full-Text Indexing features, this is now possible. Granted, our search is a long long ways away from being Google good, but it’s a start. If somebody wants to throw a lot of money at me so I can turn around and buy a copy of Endeca In Front or a Google Search Appliance, I suspect we’d get a lot better.

For example, when I looked for “cat 5” and found a house that doesn’t have a black cat. I looked for “home theater” and found a lot of homes (but not lot of homes with home theaters). Do a search for “media rooms” and you’ll find a lot rooms (but not as many media rooms). Obviously, you need to pick your words carefully to get what you want. Also, I need to start adding words like “home” & “room” to SQL’s noise word list since those words appear on nearly every listing’s remarks section. But, let’s face it, writing a search engine is hard. Eventually, I’ll tweak things so I can get Google or Microsoft to do my dirty work.

In the mean time, I hope finding your dream home got a little easier.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

You don't know the power of the dark side

vaderAfter playing with Zillow for the past couple of days, the first words that come to mind are “Impressive, but you are not a Jedi yet”. I have a hunch the guys at HouseValues are going to get “Netscaped” if they don’t take their game to next level.

The Good
The UI is slick. The mapping isn’t quite Virtual Earth / Google maps slick but it’s close (if you add mouse wheel zoom, arrow key navigation support and resizeable maps, I’d put it in that league). Seeing all the lot boundaries displayed on the map is something that I haven’t seen done well before and is a feature that will be expensive or difficult for Zillow’s competitors to match. I like the fact that they partnered with GlobeXplorer, since I believe that will enable them to out map RedFin.

The Ugly
I find all the trash talk about uptime and availability amusing. As any experienced software engineer will tell you, the first days for any web based service that has had the anticipation & hype of Zillow are going be rough. After all, if the mighty Microsoft had troubles with X-Box Live when Halo 2 was launched a few years ago, the fact that Zillow’s first day had some minor troubles is hardly surprising. Besides, I’m sure Rich Barton and the boys will buy a few AMD Dual Core Athlons CPUs with the new WD Raptor drives during the next few days and cure that problem.

The Bad
I suspect biggest problem with Zestimates is the current lack of high quality data. (Gee, the same issue I keep complaining about). Any realtor will point out, doing an accurate completive market analysis house is a problem that involves many, many variables. I understand it’s a hard problem, but the fact that the Zetimates are so far off for my house (which I thought should be an easy case) is disappointing. I don’t expect accurate estimates for waterfront, hilltop views, high rise condos, Bill Gate’s house or rural properties. But my house is a cookie cutter house is suburbia (with lots of similar houses for sale). I would think my house would be an easy one to get right.

Just for kicks, I implemented a quick & dirty Compeitive Market Analysis feature for the Rain City Guide home search. I found it to be more accurate than Zillow for my house, and Dustin thought my estimate was right on the money for his home (after he entered the correct square footage). Anyway, play around with it and let us know how close to the “right” price it is for your area.

BTW – My version just goes against active NWMLS listings (so forget about trying it if don’t live in Washington). It’s pretty crude and it’s not as cool as Zillow, but then again, I hardly have $32 in venture capital (much less $32 million), so cut me some slack!

I think the nay sayer would be wise to recall the words my former boss once said, “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.” Zillow’s Zestimates may be off in Safeco Field right now, but I have no doubt they will get much better over time. And when they do get better (not if), you better be ready.

Well, I’m going to shut up now and let my code do the talking. I’m sure the engineers at Zillow are following suit.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

Quicker than a Ray Of Light

I’ve had the opportunity to live in Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Carnation & Issaquah since I first left my alma matter back in the days of when Mosaic ruled the web. However, of all those places, I’ve loved my current home the most.

What do I love about my current home in the Issaquah Highlands, you ask? To quote a cell phone company’s ad “It’s the network”.

fiberWe’re talking about the only housing development in the Pacific Northwest that I’m aware of that has fiber optic network connectivity in to the home. The community’s network is run by the Highlands Fiber Network (although ISOMedia is my ISP and Ecuity provides my VOIP service).

One of the nice things about a community owned network, is that the operators of the network are more focused on customer service than profitability. We probably have the best performing residential network in the county. Are you ready for HDTV over IP? I didn’t think so. If that wasn’t cool enough, our network traffic goes straight to the Westin building in downtown Seattle, so it’s very reliable (I’d say it’s very close to ‘five nines’ level of uptime). BTW, if your ISP is Qwest, Comcast or Verizon, your internet traffic usually goes to San Jose first, before it comes back to Seattle (which leaves you vulnerable to backhoe denial of service attacks).

Nearly every room has a phone jack, cable/satellite TV jack, and an ethernet jack. All of the cables get routed into a wiring closet in my master bedroom. So equipment upgrades are pretty painless. Even cooler, some outlets have 2 TV jacks, so if you have a dual tuner TIVO, you can record 2 TV shows at once, or watch live TV while recording a show on another channel at the same time.

Perhaps, best of all my network speeds are FAST. My download speeds currently approach 10 Mb/sec (typical DSL speeds are about 768 Kb/sec). My ISP says I could go even faster if I was willing to pay for it (contrary to popular belief network bandwidth isn’t free).

Yeah, the eco-friendly building materials, the gas stove w/ stainless steel appliances, the clawfoot tub, the easy access to I-90, the nearby parks, the new elementary school and kid friendly neighborhood were all things that my wife & I both love about the house & the neighborhood. But you can get all that stuff in many neighborhoods.

So, if you’re tech savvy person with a family, and want a nice place to live, look no further than here. Builders (& their real estate agents) are standing by.

Robbie

Electricity isn't a competitve advantage anymore

I find all the F.U.D. regarding opening up MLS data to be kind of overblown. Perhaps, it’s because I’ve been a software engineer my entire career, and the notion of technology changing business models and society at large seems anti-climatic to me. Perhaps, I have this attitude because my former employer, embraced the notion of “Only the Paranoid Survive“? Regardless of the root causes, the fact that the N.A.R., and other members of the real estate industry are so scared of the upcoming tidal-wave of technology changes just seems so short-sighted.

Your friendly neighborhood realtor from the 22nd century?
After all, during the past 100 years or so, the only constant has been change. So the fact that more technological change is coming, shouldn’t surprise anyone. I don’t remember the explosion of digital photography during the past decade cause anywhere near this much fuss, do you? What about the growth of photocopiers & other printing technologies during the last 40 years? Before computers, I’ve heard that people used to use a device called paper to exchange & store information, and the ability to manage these paper records efficiently was a key competitive advantage for many businesses. And yet, I can’t help but wonder if the MLS placed the same kinds of restrictions on printed property listings 30 years ago that they are trying to place on digital property listing today. Surely those all free real estate magazines at the grocery store are harming agents & brokers, by giving away valuable information for free?

I’d argue that associating digital photos with electronic MLS records on free web sites has done more to decrease the value that people place on a real estate agent, than anything I or other software engineers are going to invent during the next few years. Maybe the embrace of digital photography was just a way to get back at all those real estate magazine publishers?

Anyway, my advice would be to tell the powers that be to get over it. Things are changing: deal with it. Nobody thinks electricity is a competitive advantage anymore and in a few years from now, I suspect nobody will give the new generation of real estate web applications a second thought. I suspect very few realtors are afraid of the value that maids, handymen, and landscappers bring to the real estate industry but yet somehow software engineers & database administrators are out to destroy the industry. I can’t speak for all IT professionals, but I think it’s safe to say our area of expertise is NOT in the sale, finance, or purchase of properties (which should be the core competency of any real estate agent/broker). Similarly, it’s foolish for the real estate industry to think that they can job a better job of developing tools that let Joe & Jane Consumer search & browse listing data than software engineers. After all, if the engineers at Google can search 20 billion web pages in a fraction of second, processing the 20,000 properties in the MLS is sleepwalking by comparison.

On a related thought, how did people buy & sell homes in the “dark ages”? That seems more mind boggling to me than anything I or the folks at Zillow are going to be doing in the next year.

In closing, it’s not geeks with SQL Servers or even free web servers you should be scared of. It’s those real estate androids showing homes at a holodeck near you that should keep you up at night. That’s REALLY going to shake things up.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

Where's the Beef?

In my last post, I awoken Ardell from her winter hibernation. To which I feel I should both apologize and take the credit . Ardell raised many interesting points, that I feel that merit a response. First and foremost, I’ll admit I am somewhat biased, since I tend to view things through buyer-colored glasses and I overlooked the reasons why a seller might be less than completely forthcoming with their listing information.

Where's The Beef?Admittedly, my gripe about bad zip codes is pretty minor (less than 1% listings are affected). However, entering an incorrect zip code is like misspelling a street name, it just shows buyers a lack of attention to detail. If I’m a buyer looking for vacant land in an Issaquah zip code (98029), I don’t want to see listings in Bellingham. If I’m looking for rental property in a Redmond zip code (98052), I don’t want to see listings in Mercer Island.

Regarding my beef about school information; since only half the schools surrounding Lake Washington are above average, are only half are listed? I wonder if the MLS near Lake Wobegon has this problem? Besides, who makes the decision that the school that serves a property is bad? The buyer might think XYZ school district is great, but because the seller had a differing opinion (and didn’t disclose that information), they just lost a potential buyer who won’t bother looking at a property that they otherwise might have.

Regarding my beef about latitudes and longitudes; OK, you the agent have no control over this. It still doesn’t explain why the MLS does such a bad job of geocoding! Admittedly, most people probably don’t care (unless they use a computer). Unfortunately, since many people use computers to find property information (and that number is only increasing), it’s a problem that will only become more noticeable.

When you combine latitudes and longitudes with free digital maps and inexpensive computer databases, you can see the location of listings in the neighborhood and other points of interest with an ease that was impossible to do (or at least very expensive) only a few short years ago. As they say, the 3 most important words in real estate are “Location, Location, & Location”, which means the most important part of a real estate listing web site is going to be “Maps, Maps & Maps” (as you can see by the growth of map-based real estate listings web sites this past year). Not having accurate latitudes and longitudes, makes it harder for software engineers to develop features the real estate buying, real estate selling, & internet surfing public increasingly are going to demand.

Pop quiz, which house is the better value? This ~$800K house or this ~$800K house? Without knowing how much living space I’m getting for my $800K, it makes my job as a buyer more difficult.

Just because you can’t get an exact measurement, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t measure. Most real estate listings & transactions have more legal paperwork & disclaimers than a Microsoft EULA! Furthermore, the NWMLS has the source for the square footage information associated with a listing. Couldn’t an agent argue the source should be liable? I assume the agent pays only pays if the error was in the sellers favor? Otherwise, isn’t listing a property with 0 square footage is asking for a lawsuit? Granted, I’m not an attorney, but if the risk was meaningful, I’d suspect all properties would have a square foot value of 0! So, if you get 3 different answers, pick the lowest value! Throw out the measurements from the French & Russian judges! Inaccurate data is always better than no data (at least for buyers).

Lastly, as computer based listing search & analysis tools become easier to use and more sophisticated, bad data is only going to be easier & easier to spot and less & less tolerated. Missing data makes the buyers job harder. Perhaps ironically, it also makes the sellers job more difficult as well. How can you draft an accurate competitive market analysis report if you don’t know what the size of your competitors are / were? Sure an agent could do the extra leg work of looking at the county records, but it’ll cost you more time (and time is money).

I guess the moral of this post, is caveat emptor. Although buyers may want to trust MLS data, sellers have a motivation to give you a reason not to. Perhaps, there is a market for a CarFax like service, that provides better MLS data, than the MLS? Despite my complaining, none of these obstacles are going to stop software engineers from giving the internet home buying public what they want (complete & accurate listing data). The internet has given the buyer more knowledge & more power in the marketplace. Sellers (& their agents) would be wise to embrace this trend, instead of avoiding it.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

PS – This blog posting information is not warranted. Reader should verify all information to their satisfaction. Information is based on data available to the poster, including county records. The information has not been verified by the poster and should be verified by the reader. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall the poster (Robbie), Caffeinated Software, or its suppliers be liable for any special, incidental, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages whatsoever (including, but not limited to, damages for loss of profits or confidential or other information, for business interruption, for personal injury, for loss of privacy, for failure to meet any duty including of good faith or of reasonable care, for negligence, and for any other pecuniary or other loss whatsoever) arising out of or in any way related to the use of or inability to use this blog post.