Retweeting RCG just got easier

backtweetsI was at an tweetup last night with some great guys who run social media strategies for some pretty hefty newspapers and one of the tools they recommended I look into was BackTweets WP plugin

I like to think of myself as ahead of the social media curve, but I hadn’t played around with the BackTweets much, but after just a few hours of use, I can tell I’m definitely going to be able to enjoy how easy it makes following twitter conversations around websites… and in the case of RCG, around RCG posts.

To try it out the new tool, you only need to click on the button that says “retweet” that’s at the top-left of every RCG blog post (just under the title!).

Starter homes you can STAY in

First Time Buyer Big Red Flag = “I plan to sell in 2 to 3 years”.

Many people are out buying homes right now because of the $8,000 1st time homebuyer credit. Unless the credit is extended, these people have until mid to late October to find a a house and get into escrow, so they can close by the deadline of November 30, 2009 (“before December 1”). My best guess is there will be a 2010 homebuyer credit, but it will be a new one with different parameters, and not merely an extension of the current one. But all we know for sure at the moment, is the homebuyer credit we have at present will expire, if you don’t close by the end of November.

The credit is not the ONLY reason people are out buying homes. The fact that you can more readily buy a “starter home” for $350,000 or less in many areas, is likely a larger part of the reason people are buying. The linked post will show you that in the current market you are almost EIGHT times more likely to find a starter home for $350,000 or less in Kirkland, Bellevue or Redmond, than you were in 2007. In Bothell and Kenmore, homes selling for $350,000 or less represent more than a full third of all homes being sold.

This market is a blessing in disguise…lots of sadness for sellers, but an opportunity for some young families to get into a starter home for less.

My caution is this:  I don’t want to hear “I will probably sell it in….”. In the data sample I used in the link above I did not include any homes with less than three bedrooms or less than 1.5 bathrooms. I’m not saying you can’t or shouldn’t move in less than 5 years, I am saying don’t buy a house that you can’t stay in for more than 5 years. When choosing a home, you should have the option to stay in the home, as many people who are suffering today and must sell their homes, are doing so because they have grown out of them.

The moment I hear someone say “this will hold us for a couple of years”, that is a big red flag! The home below was purchased by one of my clients who already had a small baby. It was purchased in a great school district in Kirkland for about $310,000 and it is not likely they will “grow out of it”…well, maybe ever.

Moral of the story: If you can’t see yourself living in the house five years from now…don’t buy it.

starter home

Moving to Seattle – Bridges and Traffic

Feb2006Storm4185

Thinking about moving to Seattle? Wondering what the traffic is like around here? Before you look at homes on the internet, I strongly suggest you study the Transportation Layout of the Seattle Area.

Often where you live, involves which side of “the bridge” you work on. This Seattle Area Traffic map gives you an excellent broad overview of how you get to and from. Study the “black traffic clog points” on that map for a two week period at various times each day during that two week period. That will give you a pretty good idea of normal traffic patterns, except for the few times each year when the bridge is closed.

Take a long hard look at Lake Washington. It’s HUGE and worthy of due consideration as to how you are planning to get over or around it.

My perspective centers more around the 520 bridge, and around the north side of Lake Washington, with occasional travel over the 1-90 bridge. Locals always refer to this bridge as “The 520 Bridge”, but if you are looking for info on it,  you will find it under “Evergreen Point Floating Bridge” in wikipedia, even though the name was officially changed to “The Governor Albert D. Rosselini Bridge-Evergreen Point” in 1988.

Sometimes people will simply say “the 520”, but more often they will say that when referring to the part of that road that is on The Eastside, vs the floating bridge portion of that “road” going over Lake Washington.

One of the reasons I decided to write on this today, is because I was reading updates to the Pontoon Construction Project posted on The Washington State Department of Transportation website. On a good day, travelling back and forth across the 520 Bridge is not a huge deal. On a bad day (when the bridge is closed or partially blocked by a stalled vehicle) one would have been wise to consider the alternative travel options, when deciding where to buy a home.

My general advice is to buy a home on the side of the bridge where you work, unless there is a really good reason not to do that. Very often my first question of someone who calls me about buying a home here in the Seattle Area, especially if they are moving here for a new job, is “Where are you going to be working?”

Lower Interest Rate – Escrow Timeframe

1) How long is Escrow?

The correct answer is it can be as long or short as the buyer and seller want it to be. However a long escrow timeframe can cause an escrow to fail, because it can create a situation where the buyer no longer qualifies for the mortgage. Just because the buyer qualified when the offer was submitted, doesn’t mean the buyer will continue to qualify on the day the lender is supposed to fund the loan so the escrow can close.

A lender assumes a given interest rate when they qualify the buyer. If that interest rate is different for the reasons detailed below, at time of close, the buyer may not qualify at that changed interest rate.

2) Why do most agents write a contract to close in 30 days or less?

Dan Green of The Mortgage Reports wrote a post today explaining why a shorter escrow timeframe equals a lower mortgage interest rate. His post explains that a 60 day lock “costs more” than a 30 day lock, often in terms of higher interest rate vs. higher cash costs to close.

In order for the buyer to get the rate they think they are getting, they have to be able to lock that rate for no longer than 30 days. While the buyer is not required to lock that rate, it should at least be a possibility. If a buyer looks at a rate quote of 5%, they often are not told that assumes a rate lock period of no more than 30 days. So if they sign a contract to close in 60 days, and then try to lock the rate in the first week of their contract, they will find the rate to do that is higher than the rate they were quoted the day they made the offer.

The rate can change in a few hours without the issues noted in this post. But even if the rate does not change at all, the rate will be higher if you try to lock it through a 60 day closing vs. a 30 day closing.

The honest lender who asks “what is your proposed closing date” and gives you a “60 day lock rate quote” will be higher than the lender who assumes a 30 day lock. Be sure the lenders are using the same parameters when quoting you a rate prior to making an offer, so that you are comparing apples to apples. In this scenario the most trustworthy lender could appear to have a higher rate, when they are being most honest about the potential for rate if you lock for 60 vs. 30 days.

3) How does the closing date timeframe, chosen at time of offer AND ACCEPTANCE, impact the buyer and seller in other ways?

Buyer A gets a pre-approval letter the day they are submitting an offer. The lender pre-approves the buyer for a $300,000 mortgage at 5%.

Seller B accepts the buyer’s offer BUT asks for a 90 day closing, as the home they are moving to is new construction, and won’t be completed for 90 days.

Buyer A accepts the seller’s counter-offer as to closing date.

30 days later the buyer sees interest rates rising and wants to lock the rate. The lender quotes the “lock rate” and the buyer is confused. “I see the rate on your website is 5%. Why are you quoting me 5.25%?” Lender explains that a 60 day lock vs. a 30 day lock adds 1/4 of a % point to the mortgage interest rate.

Here’s where it gets REALLY complicated…if the buyer doesn’t qualify to buy the house if the rate is 5.25% vs. 5%, he can’t lock it. If he chooses to wait until the closing is within 30 days before he locks the rate, the rate could be at 5.5% at that time. If the timeframe for the finance contingency protecting the buyer’s Earnest Money expires prior to that time (and almost all do), the buyer is painted into a corner by circumstance.

Moral of the story is often a buyer CAN let the seller have 90 days to close if they are renting month to month. But a buyer must consider the impact of the interest rate floating out for 60 of those 90 days and/or the cost of locking for more than 30 days at time of contract.

Today, it is near impossible for a seller to stay in the property for more than 60 days from time of offer and acceptance. You can close in 30 days and let the seller stay or rent back from the buyer. BUT the buyer’s lender will not allow that seller to rent bank for an extended period. If the buyer is qualifying at an “owner occupied” interest rate, they will impose a maximum number of days that the buyer can rent it to the seller. Beyond that time period the buyer’s lender will consider it an “investment” mortgage, and higher investor interest rate and higher downpayment requirements, vs. an “owner occupied” purchase money loan.

The “ifs, ands or buts” that happen in a split second during negotiations, can change the “assumptions” made at the time the buyer received their preapproval letter. The lender is often not “in the room” while these negotiations take place, or consulted for every tiny change in close date or rent back terms. They most often don’t see those “changes” until the buyer and seller both sign the contract as finally negotiated.

These small changes can put the buyer’s Earnest Money “at risk” of loss. The agent is the “protector of the buyer’s Earnest Money”, as related to changes in contract terms during negotiations. Yet how many realize the changed position the buyer is put in when the seller counters for a longer close date?

We see thousands of articles on “How to choose an agent?” Perhaps asking the agent “what happens if the seller wants to close in 90 days, or wants to rent back for 90 days?”, is a better question than “How many homes have you ‘sold’ this year?” The cost of closing is VERY important to the buyer. Not closing at all, due to changes no one played out to the likely eventual worst case scenario, affects both the buyer AND the seller.

Agents don’t “sell” houses. Agents represent the buyer OR the seller AND the transaction as a whole, as it appears at time of offer…AND as it changes during negotiations and escrow.

Handing a contract to escrow and waiting for a commission check is no longer an option. Changes in lending BACK TO the old tried and true rules of the game, requires agents to be on their toes all the way to the day escrow closes…or doesn’t close.

Why are so many escrows not closing these days? Everyone asks that question. Truth is the skills needed by an agent have changed dramatically back to old school…and agents still think “it’s the lender’s job” vs. theirs.

$8K Tax Credit Closing Deadline of Nov 30 Could Slow Interest in Short Sales

Kary brings up an excellent point here. 

“One other agent short sale issue is going to pop up shortly, if it hasn’t already, but it will be a buyer’s agent issue. The $8,000 first time home buyer credit needs a property to close by November 30. Making an offer on a short sale property, without advising a first time homeowner of the risk of not closing by the deadline is probably malpractice. It’s sort of a “suitability” issue for real estate.”

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that falling in love with a short sale today means the transaction may not close by Nov 30, 2009.  I suppose there might be a chance that the tax credit will be extended or even expanded.  Yet many homeowners with Option ARMs were given verbal assurances that they would be able to easily refinance. 

I wonder what life is going to be like inside loan servicing during the month of November, when the pressure will be sky high to get these short sales APPROVED so the buyers can make the closing deadline?

Tales From the Dark Side #1

[Editor’s Note: As a long time member of the Rain City Guide community, Ray Pepper has offered to share stories with us about his on-the-ground experience working as a real estate broker with $500 Realty. We’re calling these “Tales from the Dark Side” and today, I’m please to hit publish on the first edition of this series. Please give a warm welcome to Ray Pepper as the latest contributor to Rain City Guide!]

walking home in the darkIn an attempt to educate the public and fellow agents of the NWMLS I offer an incident dated Sept 2008.

Client Sam and Tim have been Pre-Approved clients looking for a home in Des Moines with a current Buyers Agency agreement on file.  They attend Open Houses and call me for showings every month or so.  They have been educated on how to advise all fellow agents they are working with an Agent.

Sam found a home driving around and called me from her cell at the vacant residence.  It was a Sunday at 4pm and I got the message about 8pm.  The voice mail indicated she called the Agent on the sign, to inquire on the price,  and as it turned out the agent lived across the street.

As the story unfolds the Agent spent 2.5 hours with our client talking about the home, the history of it,  and the wonderful community she has lived in for decades. 

I receive a phone call to write an offer on the property Sunday night.   I asked my client how they got inside.   She stated the listing agent let me in.   I asked, ” Did you remind her you were working with an agent?”    She said absolutely!

An offer was written around midnight and was promptly sent Monday morning.

The next phone call I received was one that has been repeated before  but this time much harsher then I have ever heard.   It reminded me of my old female Drill Sergeant at Fort Leonard Wood.  ” Listen here Pepper!”  “I’m a million dollar producer!”  “I’ve seen the likes of you come and go!”  “My time is very valuable!”  “Don’t speak until I have finished what I’m saying!”  “Your clients lied to me!” ” We have a wonderful community here and I don’t think dishonesty is a good fit for our community!”  “I’m not here to do your work for you!”

I’m new here to RCG and I believe none of you know me personally.  Those who do will attest that there is nobody more sincere, honest, and willing to take any and all slanderous language.  I have listened to it for years at the Seattle/Tacoma Home Show  and Puyallup Fair.   I took it all in as usual.   I attempt to never laugh but always educate based on the rules set forth by the NWMLS and the State. 

I immediately contacted my clients and told them about the incident and how I had to remove myself from this transaction.   My clients stated to me SHE is the liar and the agent “offered” to just walk across the street and show her listing to them.   As it turns out while I was on the phone with my clients the listing agent called back for Round 2 of screaming and I continued to listen.   I must confess that at times I find this very therapeutic and relaxing.   I was threatened to be turned into the NWMLS, the State, and  her Broker.  I strongly encouraged her to do so. 

We all know how this story ends.  The Buyer wanted the home.  The Seller wanted it sold.  The buyers walked because they did not want to have this agent as their neighbor. 

It is my opinion the only one who ever loses from this type of behavior is the one who will never know it happened.   At last look the house still remains on the market today, this time with a new agent.  

Our clients closed on their new home in April 2009.

[photo source: Sir Mervs]

Price per square foot revisited

Are formal dining rooms becoming obsolete? Are huge master suites too “selfish” for today’s changing society? Is “keeping up with the Joneses” turning into “Cutting down with the Joneses”?

In a market projected to be flat at best for the foreseeable future, these questions are fast becoming very important for each home buyer to ask and answer, each in their own way.

In the age of “me”, me being the parents vs. the children, the places where children “go” in their home got smaller and smaller. Families used to spend more time together in the “living” room until the children were banished to the “family room” and the living room became a “formal” living room that most no one ever used. People gathered in the kitchen with friends and family, until the “formal” dining room became a place and space ONLY used once in a while when “guests” came. As if the kitchen was OK for the kids, but the visitors were somehow more important, so much so that we paid big money for a special room just for “guests” vs the family on an everyday basis.

Beyond price per square foot, it is time for home buyers to determine price per square foot of WHAT? Forget about how it currently “works”. It’s time to change how it works.

First Floor = 1,630 sf of which only 534 square feet represent rooms the children enter on a regular basis. The rest is “formal” living room, “formal” dining room, “Dad’s” study, “grand” staircase and foyer. Even if you throw in the 1/2 bath, the space the children live in is smaller than the square footage of the attached 3 car garage at 660 sf.

When did the children become entitled to less space than the cars?

Second Floor = 1,260 sf of which each child’s bedroom is only 130 sf. If you have two children and throw in the bathroom they share at 5 x 8, that gives them 380 sf on the second floor. Let’s be generous and give them an open loft “bonus” room to do their homework in at 15 x 15 and you still have a full HALF of the second floor devoted to master suites and grand staircases.

2,890 sf of home plus 660 sf of garage = 3,550 sf of which only 1,165 sf is space the children enter on a regular basis. The “children’s” place is not even double the amount devoted to housing the cars. Given the “children’s” space includes the kitchen and the family room, that’s just sad.

Let’s put a price tag of $550,000 on this home = $154 per square foot including the garage. 1,165 sf times $154 = $180,500 of that $550,000 devoted to the “family” and places where the children go on a daily basis. That’s about $370,000 for formal areas, master bedrooms and baths, showy staircases and places to put the cars.

Do you really want to spend $380,000 for places your children don’t enjoy?

Put this house on a small lot, as a zero lot line home, and we have to ask ourselves: I know we’ve come a long way, we’re changing day to day. But tell me, where do the children play?

Why Home Inspection Negotiations Fail

Properties “falling out of escrow” due to the home inspection negotiation failing, is on the rise. In many cases this is because the buyer is asking for something the seller can’t really say yes to, because what they are asking for just doesn’t make any sense. Consequently the answer often becomes no and the escrow “falls out”. See this example of a recent Extreme Home Inspection to see how difficult it is to say “no” when no is the most appropriate response for all parties, and still keep everything moving forward to a right conclusion.

A home inspection is not the same as the original contract negotiation. The original negotiation is more about price and terms than the house itself. Consequently both parties can decide what to do, and what to do next during the negotiation, in email or by fax. To successfully complete a home inspection negotiation, the negotiations need to start AT the property, and may take a few inspections by experts to complete the inspection negotiations properly.

The example in the link gives a better picture of why this is so, than I can describe here. But let’s look at the three main causes for inspection negotiations going sideways, and how the buyer is often moving in the wrong direction.

1) The new norm of not letting the seller’s agent be present at the inspection is not a good one. I agree that the seller should not be present, as the emotional level can get out of control and unmanageable. But the agent for the seller needs to take the ball and run with it once the buyer starts making a request. The BEST way for the agent for the seller to negotiate to a good conclusion is if they are AT the inspection and heard and saw what the inspector was talking about. Not permitting the agent for the seller to be present can lead to the seller fixing the wrong thing, or fixing it incorrectly. If the paper report were an adequate representation of all facts at hand, the buyer would not need to attend. We all know that is not the case, and to understand the inspection in its entirety, so as to negotiate the appropriate fix, requires that all relevant parties be present.

It is a great disservice to the transaction as a whole for buyers to insist that the agent for the seller not be present. Yes, I’ll agree that a lazy, crappy agent in the room doesn’t help anyone. But the right agent in the room can make everything work out even better than the buyer hoped for. The agent for the seller has the best chance of getting the seller to react appropriately to the “issue at hand”. Give that agent what they need to help you best. Let them be present during the inspection, in fact insist on it. The paper report does not replace being in the space with the inspector as he finds and discusses the issue at much greater length and detail then ends up in the written report.

If you have an agent who sits on the front step reading a book or doing “work they brought to do during the inspection”, and doesn’t stay “engaged in the process”, well…I think you know what I want to say there and can’t say out loud.

2) Successful negotiations require you to put yourself in the other side’s shoes. Often agents who have represented hundreds of buyers and sellers can do this better than any buyer or seller. When a buyer’s agent writes up an inspection response, they then have to read it back to themselves pretending they are the agent for the seller. How would the agent on the other side of the table take this request and run with it? Often the answer is, they can’t. The agent wrote what the buyer asked for, without analyzing whether or not the other side has enough information to respond well.

Example: “Fix everything.” Even if the seller says yes, there are some things you don’t want the seller to fix. Some things need a credit, some things need to be fixed, and most things need a whole lot more detail as to HOW to fix them than “fix everything on this list” explains. RARELY does ANYONE say yes to an unknown cost. Fix everything is just lazy. The buyer’s fix might cost $6,000. The seller’s fix might cost $300. The seller may be saying “yes” to $300 while the buyer is thinking they said yes to $6,000. Then you get to the end after closing and the fix is horribly inadequate. You must be VERY specific if you want a “fix”, and that fix has to have a “work order” attached. The work order dectates WHO will fix it and the cost of that fix, so the seller is saying yes to what the buyer really wants and needs.

3) The request has to make sense. When the inspector says (and they all do) I can’t tell what’s behind the wall, it is NOT usually appropriate for the buyer to ask for the wall to be opened. Sometimes yes (as in the linked example in the first paragraph) sometimes no.

Example: 200 amp panel is of the type that was recalled. The inspector says it needs a new panel (cost approx. $1,000). The inspector suggests the panel be moved from outside the house to inside the house (generally not an appropriate request – it’s like asking for the washer and dryer to be moved from the second floor to the first floor. A home inspection should not include a request to change the home from what it is, when that something is not “a defect” and is a suggestion vs. a needed repair.)

The inspector says “I see no problem besides the panel itself”, but as a CYA he adds, “I can’t trace the lines throughout the home as I can’t see behind walls”. Buyer asks the seller to replace the panel AND move it from outside to inside AND asks them to trace the lines throughout the home…no possible answer to all that besides “no”. The inspector can’t see through walls and neither can the seller or the seller’s electrician. You’re basically asking for someone to rip out every wall and see the wiring behind the wall and check it. Unless the inspector sees a problem in the wiring, and even when they do, there is a limit to what you can expect a seller to do. Handing them a to do with no work order…no cost…no detail as to what they are to do next, is begging for a no response.

RECAP:

1) Make sure both the agent for the buyer and the agent for the seller are in attendance and “engaged” during the inspection.

2) If there is a “potential” but unidentified problem as to specifics CALL FOR A 2ND INSPECTION of that item by a qualified specialist, before making a request.

3) Don’t simply ask for the biggest number you can get. Make sure your request matches the issue at hand.

Example: 35 year roof is 6 year’s old. Inspector sees 3 cracked shingles and flashing issues around the chimney. If you really want to buy the house, don’t ask for “a new roof”. Sure, getting ten grand is nice. But asking for a new roof when it doesn’t need a new roof will likely lead to the seller not trusting anything you want as “real”, and leads to the seller simply saying “NO!” and not wanting to negotiate any further and that equals #FAIL!

Is Your Open House In The NWMLS For ALL To See?

FrontThe last few weeks have been extremely busy open house wise for us in Seattle – mostly in the $400,000 and under price range or close to it.  Agent hits on the NWMLS for those listings has also soared and the web traffic in general has increased for this price point.   The buyers are definitely out there poking around!

Many of  my recent open house visitors have been Redfin buyers.  They seem to expect to be treated poorly by other agents at opens.   Maybe this is just my own perception, but they are physically cringing upon entrance.  I guess it could be my outfit or my hair, but more likely it must have to do with the typical reception a Redfin buyer might get.  The point of an open house has always been for the hosting agent to meet, network, and possibly pick up new clients.  Although it is also great exposure for the listed property, very rarely does the open house sell the home – at least it didn’t used to

Enter Redfin. 

Redfin arguably has one of the nicest real estate search websites and their open house feature is probably second to none.  I can’t keep up with their changing business model and have no idea how effective or not they are for their clients, but do love their site and always welcome Redfin buyers to my open houses.  Redfin buyers seem to almost always be actively looking for a home.  They meticulously schedule and map out the open houses they plan to visit and they come with questions prepared.  In short, they are serious.

One little problem: 

Open houses that show up on the site are swept from the NWMLS when a listing agent enters the information in the “public open houses” field of their listing and not all listing agents do this.  Some companies prefer to hold on to that information and only enter their open houses on their corporate site alone.   Soon enough, though, most agents will hopefully catch up and realize that not entering their opens for all to see is a disservice to the seller.    Just looking at Seattle stats alone in the NWMLS, Redfin has sold 62 residential properties and 9 condos since the beginning of the year.  Redfin buyers are clearly putting a dent in the inventory. 

Redfin aside, it is just smart business and good representation to enter your open house into the NWMLS so that you expose your seller’s property to as many potential buyers as possible.

The Third Bubble …

It has often been said that we have even more of a bubble in real estate agents than we have in real estate prices. In fact we have had three concurrent bubbles – house prices, number of purchases, and number of agents. Unfortunately for the members of the residential real estate sales profession, we are making a lot more ‘progress’ on reducing the first two bubbles than we are on the third bubble.

Last week I went through an exercise of trying to track the growth and reported decline of the number of licensed agents in King County, including metro Seattle and Bellevue, who are members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. I had heard that the NWMLS had expected about 25% fallout in 2008. As I got into it, it looked like taking the transaction volumes and median prices at the same time might produce some interesting insights into agent incomes and the desirability of the profession. ( I admit that I considered an alternate title for this post: ‘The Grass Is Not Always Greener…’)

So here’s what I found, using year-end data from published NWMLS statistical reports, but doing my own analysis (and making my own errors – please let me know if you find some or think I missed a point of interpretation).

First are three charts to show the Three Bubbles of King County Real Estate:
bubble-triptych

Second is to show how the growth in number of agents has affected the average number of transactions per agent. A couple of notes on methodology here. For transactions per agent, I split each transaction into two sides, and then just divided the total transaction sides by the number of agents. For the 2009 estimate, I took the business volume for the first four months, through April, and factored it up by the same ratio as the last 8 month of 2008 were to the first 4 months of that year. We’ll get another check on it shortly with the May 2009 data.

(Required disclaimer: Statistics not compiled or published by the Northwest multiple Listing Service)

agents-vs-transactions1

Note how the average number of transactions per agent have been dropping dramatically as the total number of agents rises and the total number of transactions falls. Total number of agents is only down about 10% so far. Some people expected a far faster fallout rate, including NWMLS in one talk I heard, but the inhibiting question is probably ‘Where would they go for an alternate job in this economy?’ A related article from Inman News appeared in the Times last Sunday – Less Experienced Hands Leaving the Business.

And third is to show how the combination of all three factors plays out in average agent earnings. For nominal earnings, I assumed 2.5% commission on each transaction side – we don’t always get 3%, and we often have to give up a bit here or there to keep everyone happy and on track. The data behind the charts is stored here.

agent-earnings1

So for the average agent (and I recognize that most clients would prefer to deal with an above average agent), earnings have dropped from a decent professional income to a pretty marginal income. Last year (2008) it was a little over $30,000 – about $15/hr if you work full time, and this year looks worse. How about $10/hr?

I guess the grass really isn’t always greener…