Category Archives: Housing Crisis

King County Median prices fall over 10% YOY. Quite frankly, maybe today's Seattle Times headline will help the market.

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This has been on my mind for a while, so I’ll throw it out there for people to discuss.  Sometimes a non-agent can introduce topics that the real estate community may be uncomfortable in discussing with their clients.  So, here goes…..

The topic:  Is this lousy news for sellers just the spice to get them to realize that the white- hot markets of 2005-2007 are long gone?

Price reductions have been taking place for sometime.  Months and months.   But, many have been token reductions and the conversations I hear and read on blogs is that,  in some instances, resistance has been fairly strong.

What good does it do when a seller who reduces a price by $3K on a $650,000 listing that has been languishing on the market for months?  If today, after weeks of small incremental reductions, the listing is priced at $550,000, there is no agent on earth representing a buyer that will take it seriously.  Especially after seeing the price reductions go on and on for months.   I don’t know who is torturing who:  the homeowner doing this practice or an agent who can’t pull the plug on the listing?  I’ve heard that not taking a listing is not in the DNA of agents (I’m teasing of course.)

I know of some agents who have broken their backs and have spent a lot of money on listings only for the seller to eventually pull the plug on the listing out of frustration.   And then, (drum roll please) have the $500K+ listing end up renting for under $2000.00/mo.  Any sellers out there understand the rent-to-price ratio relationship over the history of residential real estate?  Now, on the other hand, many of today’s agents have little experience in working through a correction and pricing and marketing a home effectively.  If we are honest, there was not a lot to do in a white-hot market to generate the offer: place the listing on the NWMLS and arrange a time with the seller to accept multiple offers.  I hear some were even nice enough to offer coffee and pastries to the agents sitting in cars outside of a property waiting for their turn to submit their offer.  How times have changed.

I have seen a couple of examples of the substandard work ethic and marketing in my neck of the woods in Snohomish Co:  outrageously poor marketing, only to have another professional agent come to the rescue and have a successful sale.  Good for that agent and good for the seller to recognize when a change is needed.

Will agents bring the Seattle Times clipped article to listing presentations?  When is real estate bad news good for moving sellers in the right direction and getting the market moving?  Perhaps today.  Or, maybe we still have a long way to go in understanding how damaging the excesses of next to zero lending standards will turn out to be and the artificial appreciation it fostered.

PS.  Those who are currently in the market to buy should be in conversations with your loan officers regarding the recent drop in interest rates.   Just today, our office is hearing that there are 30 yr fixed rates at 5.5% at par, some even indicating a small rebate at that rate.  Consult with your loan officer.

WSJ Reporting Deal Near to put Fannie and Freddie into Conservatorship

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The Wall Street Journal is reporting tonight that the time is almost up for Fannie and Freddie. That didn’t take long. No wonder the bill was rushed to President Bush to be signed at the end of July.

The plan is expected to involve putting the two companies into the conservatorship of their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said several people familiar with the matter. That would mean the government would take the reins of the companies, at least temporarily.

Plans include the government gradually injecting capital into the two companies and a “top level management shakeup.”

Freddie and Fannie own or guarantee more than $5 trillion of mortgages. They have suffered combined losses of about $14 billion over the past four quarters as they make provisions for a wave of defaults. Investors worried that a government bailout would wipe out the value of existing stock, and those fears have sent the shares down about 90% from a year ago. Many U.S. banks as well as foreign governments own stock or debt in the two giants, meaning their financial woes could cause broad problems beyond the housing market.

Emphasis mine.

This breaking story has already been updated. Read more here at the Washington Post and NYTimes.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be put under control, sources say

U.S. rescue seen at hand for mortgage giants

Update:

Here’s Bloomberg; Paulson plans to bring Fannie, Freddie under government control

Reuters: Fannie Freddie shares fall after report of bailout

I’m sure there will be more stories posted all throughout the weekend.  This Fannie and Freddie takeover is something I could have never imagined when I started my career in mortgage lending 25 years ago.  When they raised the conforming loan limit several months ago and allowed F&F take on Jumbos, there were many who said F&F wouldn’t be able to survive if loan defaults continued to rise.  Firstam Core Logic says defaults will to continue to rise for at least the next 18 months.  We should now begin thinking about the FHA mortgage insurance program and their 3.5% down requirement.  That equity goes away fast during a down market.

I am heading out to the Edmonds Woodway High School Football game. I will post a link to that CoreLogic report and any updates when I return.  Link to CoreLogic PDF posted above. 

Update 2: Sunday morning press release from Paulson:

Statement by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. on Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency Action to Protect Financial Markets and Taxpayers

Washington, DC–

Good morning. I’m joined here by Jim Lockhart, Director of the new independent regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA. In July, Congress granted the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and FHFA new authorities with respect to the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since that time, we have closely monitored financial market and business conditions and have analyzed in great detail the current financial condition of the GSEs – including the ability of the GSEs to weather a variety of market conditions going forward. As a result of this work, we have determined that it is necessary to take action.
Continue reading here.

 

Readers, what effect do you believe a F&F conservatorship will have on the local and national real estate market?

Predatory Upfront Loan Modification Fees

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I’m troubled by a trend that I’m seeing.  Recently I’ve noticed that mortgage brokers/loan originators have become interested in learning about loss mitigation techniques. When I ask why, they say that they’re hearing there’s good money to be made doing loan modifications.  What? Wait a second. I thought loan modifications were done by the lender for free.

More and more spam is popping up in my spam bin advertising loan modification services, offered by loan originators so I decided to call one of these LOs today after sending an email late last night asking for more information and receiving no reply. 

This particular person goes by the title of “mortgage planner.”  On her website, she advertises a wide variety of mortgage products including the pay option ARM and the hybrid ARM (are those even available anymore?) but there’s nothing on her website about loan modifications. None of the staff bios show any experience in doing loan modifications. Here’s what I found out.  The upfront fee charged to the homeowner is $3500.  But the LO assures me that all the work is handled by attorneys, she says.  The borrower’s up front fee is placed into escrow.  If a request for loan modification is accepted by the lender for loss mitigation (statistics were offered that 93% of loans are being modified) the full fee is due.  If the loan does not get modified, $2,000 is refunded and the remaining $1500 is not.  I asked the LO why a homeowner wouldn’t just work directly with an attorney.  She said that she works with a network of attorneys with a high loan mod approval rate and homeowners are always free to hire their own attorney and not work with her.

I asked her how much of the $3500 goes to the attorney and how much of it she gets to keep.  Her response was, “why are you asking me that?” To which I replied, “because if the attorney is doing all the work, then I’m wondering how much of that fee is going to you.”  She said “Well I work with the clients. I put a package together and follow up with the lender.” I said, “but a few minutes ago you mentioned that everything is handled by attorneys.”  Of course at this point the conversation has turned a tad bit adversarial and she starts to probe deeper into my true intentions. My intentions are only to get closer to what’s really going on here. I need to know if this sort of gig is something that is a viable alternative for Realtors to know about when counseling homeowners in financial distress.  My intentions are to be able to help other loan originators evaluate whether receiving a referral fee on a loan modification is going to get them into trouble.  If I were to guess, I’d say that the LO earned $2,000 for a successful loan mod and the remaining $1500 went to the attorney. There are forums out there confirming my guess.

In some states, including Washington State, Mortgage Brokers and their LOs now owe fiduciary duties to consumers.  Fiduciary comes from the Latin word fiducia, meaning “trust.

Why do banks take so long to approve a short sale?

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This question comes up over and over again from Realtors, homeowners and homebuyers everywhere I go. A one sentence answer doesn’t exist for this question. If you truly want to know the answer to the question, “why” continue reading.  This means you will have to take a step back from your particular emotional situation enough to really listen to what’s being said because everyone wants their deal approved NOW. 

Banks are under no obligation to approve your short sale.  I know what you’re thinking, reader. You’re thinking, “Well if the G.D. bank would just approve my short sale faster, they wouldn’t be losing so much money!”

Let’s start at the beginning. A homeowner is said to be in a short sale situation when he or she owes more than what the home is currently worth, is in default and must sell.  Traditionally, homeowners agreed to pay back the difference between what was owed and the sales price. The short sale seller signed a new, unsecured note at closing and promised to pay back the difference in regular monthly installments.  The only cases where the debt was “forgiven” was for true financial hardship cases where there was absolutely no way the homeowner could ever repay the difference. An example would be the untimely death of one of the breadwinners. But that was then.

In today’s politically charged, loan modifications for all, HoHo, let’s-dump-everything-into-FHA environment, homeowners in a short sale situation today are receiving debt forgivness and even temporary tax exemptions on top of that.  Don’t worry, the rest of us tax payers will pick that up for you.

The first step in figuring out why your short sale is taking so long to be approved is to inquire about whether the homeowner is asking the bank to forgive the difference or if the homeowner is gainfully employed and able to pay back the difference.  This all must be proven and documented to the lender’s satisfaction.  If the homeowner is asking for debt forgiveness, the short sale will take longer to approve if the bank does not have all the required documentation.

Thought question: Why would any lender approve a short sale, especially one that requires debt forgiveness, unless there is proof that foreclosure is imminent? Answer: They won’t.  Lenders have to weigh the costs associated with the short sale proposal against the cost of foreclosure.  If a homeowner has not yet defaulted on their loan, the bank has little motivation to approve the short sale. Why not wait for a better offer to come along?  (Note, homeowners reading this article should always consult with an attorney if you are selling short, in default, or will be in default on your mortgage loan(s).)

All loan servicing departments have processes in place for dealing with short sale approvals.  They may not have fancy computer systems so that everything is automated but maybe that’s a good thing. Look where automated underwriting got us.

Next step: Homeowners must prove that they do not have the money to make up the shortfall. This means sending in copies of all bank statements, tax returns, w-2s, and other supporting documents to verify that the homeowners is financially insolvent. Short sales are reserved for people with NO MONEY. 

Gentle reminder: The new sale must be an arms-length transaction.   Another common problem that lenders must watch for is when the real estate agent on the transaction happens to be the “assigned” buyer on the purchase and sales agreement.  The lender is not going to be thrilled in paying a real estate commission on that kind of transaction. Further, there are plenty of foreclosure rescue scams happening nationwide. Lenders scrutinize short sale offers to look for signs of fraud.  Tanta reminds us:

Is it the job of the Loss Mitigation Department to care about clearing your local RE market? No. Is it their job to care about keeping your buyer wiggling on the hook long enough to get papers signed? No. Is a short sale supposed to be a painless alternative to foreclosure for anyone involved? No. There are no painless alternatives. There shouldn’t be. There cannot be.

Next, everyone who is patiently waiting for the bank to approve the short sale must now realize that once the bank says “okay” to the short sale, there very may be a long list of investors who own pieces of this mortgage loan. Each and every investor will have to give their approval for the short sale.  We enjoyed many years of growth in the real estate industry and the overall economy thanks to the invention of Residential Mortgage Backed Securities.  RMBS made millions of dollars for many people.  The downside to securitizing mortgage loans and then selling off slices of each mortgage to different investors is that when it comes time to tell the investor “you’re going to have to take a haircut” that investor gets to have a say in the matter.

Calling loan servicing and yelling at them over the phone will get you nowhere.

I would like to be first to predict that the next meltdown will be loan servicing.  But perhaps my prediction is so obvious as to not be much of a prediction at all.  How much longer can they sustain this level of stress and pressure, with their current staffing levels, while the banks are facing enormous losses?  Of course when that meltdown happens, I predict our government will step in and mandate harsher regulations on servicers, which will be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher interest rates.

Loan servicing use to offer what it said: “service.”  It was treated as a cost center on a bank’s balance sheet.  Over the past 15 years, servicing became a “profit center” and the highest expense, namely labor, was cut to achieve profit goals.  This is one more lesson in underpricing. The cost of “good” loan servicing in which phones are answered and files processed smoothly, would have cost us all way, way, way more on the retail end, than what we paid. 

Let’s say we could create instant loss mitigation nirvana today.  All phones are answered on the first ring, all short sales are approved with no questions asked, no documentation required, no proof of hardship necessary, no proof of financial insolvency needed, and all Realtors receive their full 6% commission. 

The consequences of not performing due diligence at the loss mit stage are disaster for all of us. Compare this to the current nirvana we just left behind: A world where anyone could get a mortgage loan with no verification of ability to repay, with massive fraud still being uncovered.  We need to do it right this time, and it takes TIME to do proper short sale loss mitigation.

Housing Market Predictions from RE Connect

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To follow up from last week’s Inman Connect, here are the answers from panelists to the question, “When will the housing market recover?”

Noah Rosenblatt, Founder of Urbandigs
Severe and deep recession, housing may bottom at the end of 2009 with recovery in 2011.

Dottie Herman, President, Prudential Douglas Elliman
We’ll hit bottom in the first quarter of 2009, after the election and stay flat for a few years.

Avram Goldman, President and CEO of Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate
We’re in a recession now. Some markets will do fine and go up, some markets will be down a long time.

Yves Smith, NakedCapitalism
I wish I could say 2010.  The Alt-A ARM resets bother me because they will peak in 2011.  Market will bottom in 2010 and stay flat for a long time.

John Williams, Economist; Shadowstats.com
We’ll have an L shaped decline, hyperinflation, and a great depression.

CR, CalculatedRisk
Foreclosures are moving upstream. Notice of defaults will rise in the mid and higher price ranges. They’ll never reach the foreclosure levels of the subprime loans, but foreclosures in the mid and higher price ranges will rise.  Wonders if our government is out of tricks; the new housing bill doesn’t do much, but we have to have confidence in our GSEs.  Different areas will bottom out at different times: 2010 to 2012.

Same question, two days later, different panel. Here are their answers:

Alex Perriello, CEO Realogy
We’ll have a sloppy, rocky, bumpy bottom. It’s not pretty where we are today. Inventory is key.  We can support 4.6 to 4.8 million sales nationwide. The last time inventory was this high (nationwide it is 11 months) was in 1986.  Inventory drives price.  Realtors should datamine their clients who bought 2002 and prior: Sell them a new home! Market to renters! Alex says it’s too early to call the bottom.

Joel Singer, EVP, California Assoc of Realtors
Prices are exploding downward in CA. Worried that if anything happens to the GSEs all bets are off. There’s a lot of wild cards in the financial sector. Cali seems to have hit a bottom but this may be a false bottom.

Patrick Stone, Chairman, The Stone Group
What hasn’t been fully communicated is that price stability has been achieved in a third of the country.  In the next six months, we’ll see another third achieve it.  The last third will achieve price stability in “probably one year” unless we have a cataclysmic event where the impact on our economy could be severe. The stability of our financial system is paramount to finding the bottom.

Jonathan Miller, Co-Founder, Miller Samuel, inc.
It’s very challenging for appraisers to come up with a value when there’s a lower pace of sales. Until progress is made with the credit markets, it is too soon to talk about the bottom.  To call a bottom is not professional. We can’t do it.

The Housing Rescue Bill

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Today President Bush signed a housing “rescue” bill HR 3221.  I’m really still absorbing all of this (I think it’s taking me a bit longer after my trip to Inman Connect).   Here are a few quick pointers:

The FHA risked base mortgage insurance pricing (which I’m in favor of) that was to be effective last week is now postponed until September 30, 2009.   FHA can now save some borrowers in trouble with their mortgage if their existing lender will forgive the underlying debt to 85% 90% of the current value of the home.   Gee…risked based MIP might be handy in these cases.

Also with FHA, Seller paid down payment assistance programs are will be gone and the minimum down payment for an FHA insured loan will be 3.5% (which is a very small increase) beginning October 1, 2008.

Jumbo FHA and Jumbo Conforming loan limits will be reduced from the current 125% of median home value to 115% of the median home value beginning January 1, 2009.   As I mentioned, your days of a loan amount of $567,500 are numbered.   The new conforming/FHA jumbo limit may be closer to $520,000.  

First time homebuyers (someone who has not had interested in a property for the past 3 years) are eligible to receive a tax credit…however, it’s really an interest free loan to be paid back over 15 years or from the proceeds when the home is sold (which ever comes first).  This is available only for homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009.  Income restrictions do apply.   For more information, check out this website.   

Last but not least (and I’m sure I’m missing stuff) Fannie and Freddie have a new regulator: The Federal Finance Housing Agency aka FHFA.   This from James B. Lockhart:

“Today President Bush signed the ‘Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.’ I thank President Bush and Secretary Paulson for their leadership in making government sponsored enterprise (GSE) regulatory reform a reality.

The Act creates a world-class, empowered regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), with all the authorities necessary to oversee vital components of our country’s secondary mortgage markets — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks — at a very challenging time.  As Director of the new agency I look forward to working with the combined Federal Housing Finance Board (FHFB), Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHEO) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) GSE Mission teams and with other regulators to ensure the safety and soundness of the 14 housing related GSEs and the stability of the nation’s housing finance system.

For more than two years as Director of OFHEO I have worked to help create FHFA so that this new GSE regulator has far greater authorities than its predecessors.  As Director of FHFA, I commit that we will use these authorities to ensure that the housing GSEs provide stability and liquidity to the mortgage market, support affordable housing and operate safely and soundly.”

Too much to write about in detail for one post…just wanted to throw you some bits.

The Housing Crisis is Like Hurricane Katrina

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There were four back-to-back panel sessions on the topic of Foreclosures at Real Estate Connect this morning. Here are some sound bites and quotes.

There are 25,000 homes per MONTH in California that are going back to the lender.  This is going to create a glut of housing inventory for many months into the forseeable future.  The percentage of loan modifications that are re-defaulting and going into foreclosure is high.  Estimates are 40% or higher.

In Cali, the very low end price range REO homes are now selling to long term investors who are are able to put a renter in that house and make their cash flow goals. 

There are an estimated 400,000 people living in their homes for free in California right now.  Lenders are stalling the foreclosure process because there simply is not enough people working in the loss mitigation departments to process all the paperwork.

There is a huge problem nationwide with listing agents who are taking short sale listings and have no clue on how to help the homeowner navigate through the short sale process.

Quote: “This [the housing crisis] is like Hurricane Katrina.”

Question to the panelists: How can consumers who are facing foreclosure help themselves?
Answer from Frances Flynn Thorsen, “Stay away from Realtors.” 

Jillayne here. That answer brought forth many laughs and suprised blurts of shock.  I personally think this took quite a lot of moxie to say in a room filled with Realtors. The point Frances was trying to make was that not all homeowners who are in default want to sell their home!  When real estate agents stick with only a single mindset that selling is the ONLY option, they are doing a grave disservice to their clients.  Frances said it is imperative that agents connect homeowners with either Acorn or NACA or some other HUD-approved Housing Counseling Agency that can effectively negotiate with the lender, and to make sure the homeowner receives legal counsel from attorneys who specialize in consumer protection law, which is something they can find at NACA. 

There are very few loan modifications being granted if the homeowner is seriously underwater. The example given was $2,000 in monthly income and $11,000 in monthly debts.  No loan mod for that consumer because the chances of re-defaulting are way too high.  This homeowner may be better served through the foreclosure process.

The loan modifications that are granted are often done by lowering the interest rate on the note to say, 3% for a fixed period of time such as three years, but with NO principal reduction. 

Jillayne again.  I say this practice may lead to a build up of shadow inventory that could end up hitting the market in 2011 and further drawing out the housing recession into 2012.

Short sales in Florida are a complete waste of time.  Buyers in Florida are looking at sellers with equity or REOs ONLY.  Banks are only now starting to dump their REOs by lowering the prices in order to get them off their boooks.

Florida should WISH FOR another Florida bank failure because then the other banks will become extremely nervous about the bank regulators poking around and will begin to get real with dropping the prices on REOs in order to clear out their inventory, especially the closer we get to the end of a quarter.

“Real estate agents have a moral and fiduciary duty to our clients.  We have a duty to try and maintain values.  We should be encouraging sellers to help hold the value by offering to “buy down” the interest rate instead of lowering the sales price.”

Jillayne here again.  That quote came from LJ Jennings, a real estate broker/owner.  I’m not so sure that holding prices artificially high could pass a fiduciary test.  This may NOT be in the client’s best interest.

VERY interesting insight from a data analyst. She said some companies would rather stick with data that their analysts have been using INSTEAD OF showing NEW data to their end users….because then their existing analysts would be proven wrong and the company doesn’t want to deal with that. 

Take aways:

  • Banks will begin to “throttle out” their inventory quarter to quarter,
  • A lot more big pools of scratch and dent (loans with problems) loans will start to be sold off in bulk to investors
  • Lenders will slow down the default process for due diligence and accounting reasons
  • In the second have of 2008, 100 billion (correction: dollars) in loans will reset.  If ONLY 13% default, this is a huge number of homes that will impact inventory levels for the years to follow.
  • Hundreds of thousands of Alt A loans will reset in 2009.
  • Foreclosure relief bill is a little too late.  Our problem right now is that lenders are afraid to lend on a declining asset and buyers are afraid to buy.  The bill does more to shore up confidence in Fannie and Freddie than anything else.
  • There ARE options for a homeowner in default who does not want to sell.
  • Foreclosure is only a temporary part of a person’s life.  Life goes on.
  • Loan modifications and short sales are being done faster through banks that have a history of predatory lending (this is a concept I’ve been teaching for 8 years now.)

I have an entire set of notes from the attorney who spoke on the liability issues agents face when listing REO homes. I’ll have to do a separate blog article on that for you.