How well does Zillow Zestimate your home?

Since everyone’s doing it, I thought it would be fun to have one place where people discuss how good Zillow’s “Zestimator” is working!

The process is simple…

1) Go to Zillow.com
2) Type in your address
3) Record the Zestimate of your home
4) Return here, and let us know in the comments how well their tool stacks up to reality.


Here are the Zestimates I’ve gathered so far:

  • My home: The zestimate is probably $40 to 60K too high. The home next door to mine, (which is almost identical) sold this summer for $80K less than the Zestimate
  • Ardell’s home: $200K less than she just paid for it!
  • Robbie’s current home: He estimates that it is $220K too low!
  • Rich Barton’s home: He may have “overpaid a bit” on his $2.6M Madison Park home.

How well does Zillow Zestimate your home?

Zats really cool…

Zillow has launched!

I just got an email from Zillow’s Director of Communications and she passed along the fact that not only is their blog live, but a beta version of their site is live as well… Rich and David flipped the switch!

So, what does Zillow do?

In two minutes of of a Skype conversation with my mom, we were able to find the “Zestimated” value of my home in Seattle, my mom’s home in Sacramento, and my grandmother’s home in Las Vegas… Very cool indeed, especially since my home value is zestimated to be worth $140K more than we paid for it two-and-half years ago!

From what I can tell, they’ve found a way to estimate the value of thousands upon thousands of homes (60,000,000+ homes by their count). For my neighborhood, they have lots of background information on each home… Not only does it tell you the size, square feet, lot size, etc. but it also gives information like a list of recently sold comparable homes. Very cool indeed.

zillow_screenshot_1

The site is loaded with tables, graphs, and charts for each home.

Probably the strongest selling point so far is that creating a set of comparables is so easy. I’ve worked a fair amount with Anna to develop comparable market analysis, and I can tell you that agents may have access to slightly better data on each home, but Zillow’s system is SO much easier to use that I imagine many agents will turn to Zillow from now on…

zillow_charts

Interesting, interesting stuff… It is interesting that the site has a complete lack of obtrusive ads and it will be really interesting to see how this plays out in the agent community. I’m not seeing a lot of negatives so far.

Here’s how Rich Barton explains their business model on the Zillow blog:

I’d like to make a comment on our business model, which I’ve found helps divine motives. Zillow.com will make revenues from advertisements on the site. We will always be crystal clear about what is content and what is advertising, just like any respectable content provider, and our advertising will not define our content. However, the beauty of “Web 2.0

Redfin – Something to think about.

One of the “big stories” in yesterday’s Seattle Times, was the piece on Redfin written by Elizabeth Rhodes.

My response is this:

According to the article, Redfin has the ability to reduce the Buyer Agent Fee to 1% of the purchase price. They have an “agent” who never goes to see the property “write up” an offer online, and Redfin gets paid 1% to do that. That assumes that the Buyer Agent fee offered by the seller and the listing company exceeds 1%, which is at present generally the case.

If the buyer only wants to “pay” 1% for Buyer Agent services, if that is the trend, then why wouldn’t I just go out and list property with a 1% Buyer Agent offering in the first place? Why shouldn’t the seller offer 1% and pay only 2% or 3% total fees when he lists the property, with 1% or 2% to the listing agent and 1% to the buyer’s agent?

If the “agent” in Redfin’s backroom is writing an offer without seeing the property for 1%, why wouldn’t the buyer just have the Open House Agent or listing agent write it up for 1% while in the house? At least that agent has seen the house and will know what amenities to write in that might be unique to this property, even if not offered in the mls, like bar stools that match the decor.

Clearly a buyer who can pick a property off the internet, who needs no assistance other than writing an offer and following escrow to closing, can get a real live agent for 1% or even less. Why not use one you can talk with in person inside of the house? If you remove the “responsibility” to assist in property selection from the agent. If you further remove the “responsibility” of the agent to “take care of you” because you are a savvy and informed consumer and don’t need “hand holding”. Then clearly you can negotiate those terms with anyone and still retain the right to “upgrade” the service if needed during the transaction.

The public’s perception that all fees are carved in stone is erroneous. I am concerned that buyers go to less than full service companies, when they can clearly negotiate less than full services with any licensee. Pick the best agent for the job and negotiate the terms. This way if you need greater assistance during the transaction than you thought you might need at the beginning, you have the option to upgrade to what you need, no more and no less.

Trulia Lands in New York

I just got an email announcing that Trulia launched in New York!

Congratulations Pete and Sami! I know that was pretty high on your list of ToDo items!

Are you wondering what Trulia is?

I wrote a post on their service when they launched in California. In general, they have one of the nicest interfaces around for real estate search. If someone is looking for inspiration on how to build a tight real estate search that is focused on providing a maximum of useful information to buyers, they they need to look no farther than Trulia to see how it can be done.

Trulia Launches New York

So is there anything wrong with Trulia? I only have two qualms about their service. One, they launched in New York before Seattle! 🙂 and two, they don’t have a comprehensive database of homes (The California agents I’ve talked to have all mentioned that Trulia does not include a lot of homes that are available and did include a lot of homes that had already been sold.)

With those two caveats in place, it is my opinion that they have one of the most interesting real estate search tools available!

More:

Electricity isn't a competitve advantage anymore

I find all the F.U.D. regarding opening up MLS data to be kind of overblown. Perhaps, it’s because I’ve been a software engineer my entire career, and the notion of technology changing business models and society at large seems anti-climatic to me. Perhaps, I have this attitude because my former employer, embraced the notion of “Only the Paranoid Survive“? Regardless of the root causes, the fact that the N.A.R., and other members of the real estate industry are so scared of the upcoming tidal-wave of technology changes just seems so short-sighted.

Your friendly neighborhood realtor from the 22nd century?
After all, during the past 100 years or so, the only constant has been change. So the fact that more technological change is coming, shouldn’t surprise anyone. I don’t remember the explosion of digital photography during the past decade cause anywhere near this much fuss, do you? What about the growth of photocopiers & other printing technologies during the last 40 years? Before computers, I’ve heard that people used to use a device called paper to exchange & store information, and the ability to manage these paper records efficiently was a key competitive advantage for many businesses. And yet, I can’t help but wonder if the MLS placed the same kinds of restrictions on printed property listings 30 years ago that they are trying to place on digital property listing today. Surely those all free real estate magazines at the grocery store are harming agents & brokers, by giving away valuable information for free?

I’d argue that associating digital photos with electronic MLS records on free web sites has done more to decrease the value that people place on a real estate agent, than anything I or other software engineers are going to invent during the next few years. Maybe the embrace of digital photography was just a way to get back at all those real estate magazine publishers?

Anyway, my advice would be to tell the powers that be to get over it. Things are changing: deal with it. Nobody thinks electricity is a competitive advantage anymore and in a few years from now, I suspect nobody will give the new generation of real estate web applications a second thought. I suspect very few realtors are afraid of the value that maids, handymen, and landscappers bring to the real estate industry but yet somehow software engineers & database administrators are out to destroy the industry. I can’t speak for all IT professionals, but I think it’s safe to say our area of expertise is NOT in the sale, finance, or purchase of properties (which should be the core competency of any real estate agent/broker). Similarly, it’s foolish for the real estate industry to think that they can job a better job of developing tools that let Joe & Jane Consumer search & browse listing data than software engineers. After all, if the engineers at Google can search 20 billion web pages in a fraction of second, processing the 20,000 properties in the MLS is sleepwalking by comparison.

On a related thought, how did people buy & sell homes in the “dark ages”? That seems more mind boggling to me than anything I or the folks at Zillow are going to be doing in the next year.

In closing, it’s not geeks with SQL Servers or even free web servers you should be scared of. It’s those real estate androids showing homes at a holodeck near you that should keep you up at night. That’s REALLY going to shake things up.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

Real Estate Search Article

Search Engine Watch has a real estate search tool write up. It’s mostly links, but some of them haven’t been mentioned here. I like to think that our write ups are a little more coherent.

Not mentioned is the much improved (aesthetically) Redfin (even in the last week or two – take a look!) and the still nascent ShackPrices.

-Galen
ShackPrices.com

Playing With Rain City Guide's Real Estate Search Tool

Robbie Paplin of Caffeinated Software has built a great home search tool for the Seattle area and he put some very interesting posts together giving background on his effort, but I’m not sure he’s done a great job letting everyone know just how cool it is.

So, let me clarify the situation… The search tool is AWESOME!

What’s so cool about it?

  1. google earthGoogle Earth. It exports any and all of your searches to Google Earth! This means that you can get extremely clear aerial images of the home and nearby neighborhood.
  2. RSS buttonReal Simple Syndication (RSS). Every search can be exported as an RSS feed an imported into a Blog Reader.
  3. Sort by Price/SqFoot. . This is subtle improvement, but it can lead to some surprisingly relevant insights. On any search, let’s say “Seattle Homes” or even “Million Dollar Listings“, you can sort the results by the price per square foot. (This would be an even more useful feature if more homes didn’t have “0” listed as their size, but that’s better left for another post… 🙂
  4. Rain City Guide Search StatisticsSearch Statistics. With every search result, a box is presented that gives you statistics like the average list price and size for homes for that search.
  5. Complete Seattle Listings. Unlike some of the other search sites that are cropping up, we’ve got a complete list of homes that are for sale by real estate agents in Seattle. (I’d tell you that it is “MLS” data, but I don’t think I’m allowed to say that… 🙂

So who might find this search tool useful?

  • Home buyers who want to be updated on new homes as they hit the market! (it only takes a few hours (minutes?) for a home to be listed by an agent before it hits our servers and is picked up by the blog reader of your choice!
  • Home owners who are curious what homes are being listed in their neighborhood (or zip code!)
  • Real estate agents (like home buyers) who want to be notified of listings as they hit the market via their RSS reader!

And I’m sure there are others…

By the way, because of the nature of RSS feeds, I’ve been able to present the results from selected home searches as they get listed on my sidepanel. I’m sure that there are a ton of other interesting ways to use RSS feeds on real estate sites… Any recommendations?

Heard around the web:

Real estate search sites hit data control sore spot

Inman news had an interesting article today about how some of the innovative real estate search sites are causing headaches across the country. Considering all the conversations on Rain City Guide recently about the future of “data” this seems quite relevant and is a very interesting read. However, Inman will make the article subscriber-only after today, so catch it fast if you’re not a subscriber (or just read below for some of the more interesting quotes):

Out of companies that have released real estate search tools, the two most interesting (to me) are definitely Trulia and PropSmart. (The Inman article also features some background on Oodle, but they don’t seem to have the laser-like focus on real estate like the other two)

Here is Ron Hornbaker of PropSmart view of the situation:

While (Ron) said the response to Propsmart has been mostly positive from agents and brokers, he has received a bit of pushback from a few people in the multiple listing service community. “First of all, they’re using the word ‘illegal’ and … ‘copyright infringement.’ I’ve just been polite and talked to them. We don’t want to do anything people don’t want us to do.” Hornbaker said he has complied with the wishes of industry professionals who wish to remove their listings from being included at the site.

“My concern is they are speaking for way more interest than they should be. I do not believe we are a Napster-like model, and that’s what we’re being equated to,” he said, referring to Napster’s past problems in offering up a service that allowed users to illegally download music. “I would ask the people who say we’re doing illegal things to point out where the harm is — who are we damaging?”

That last quote would be sure to get a few comments from concerned agents should Ron have posted it on a blog… 🙂

The property listings displayed at Propsmart, he said, “are being used simply for display to consumers to point them to a home for sale. I would think that the opposite side of this could be argued more effectively: By restricting consumer access to the listings, that has more (potential) for being illegal.

“I believe it’s the seller who’s being forgotten in this situation. It is the seller we’re trying to stand up for and do the right thing for,” Hornbaker said, adding that sellers may not be aware — and may not approve — of efforts by brokers to block the listing from being viewed on some Web sites.

“I don’t buy the ‘copyright infringement’ for a second. They see their old model slipping away and they’re grasping at what they can,” he added. “We’re not trying to make money from the brokers. We’re not a middleman. We’re just trying to be a useful tool for consumers. I think this is going to backfire on the (opponents) in time.”

The gang at Trulia also gave some background on their view of where Trulia fits into the big picture:

Sami Inkinen, COO and co-founder at Trulia, said the site’s development team made a concerted effort to bring brokers to the table. “Most importantly, even before we launched we talked to all of the key brokers in advance to make sure the product was acceptable to what they want.” Inkinen said that Trulia is also careful not to access IDX, or Internet Data Exchange property listings information that is protected through broker agreements with MLSs.

While brokers seem to get it, Trulia CEO and co-founder Pete Flint said MLS’s are “frankly a mixed bag. Some of them have yet to understand … that this is in the best interest of their members. Some of them are not friends of innovation. Really what we’re focused on for now … (is) communicating how search is really positive to the real estate industry.”

Inkinen said, “We understand who we’re serving and we’re serving the brokers. We don’t want to own content. Our motto has always been the search-engine approach, the search-engine model — help brokers to place the digital yard sign on the Internet and then point to the actual source.”

Flint added, “We’re very aware that listings are a very delicate matter. We’re not looking to reinvent the industry in any way. We’re trying to improve things a little bit for consumers, and … a little bit for brokers.”

(Thanks to Jim of Central Virginia Real Estate News for tipping me off about this interesting article)

Where's the Beef?

In my last post, I awoken Ardell from her winter hibernation. To which I feel I should both apologize and take the credit . Ardell raised many interesting points, that I feel that merit a response. First and foremost, I’ll admit I am somewhat biased, since I tend to view things through buyer-colored glasses and I overlooked the reasons why a seller might be less than completely forthcoming with their listing information.

Where's The Beef?Admittedly, my gripe about bad zip codes is pretty minor (less than 1% listings are affected). However, entering an incorrect zip code is like misspelling a street name, it just shows buyers a lack of attention to detail. If I’m a buyer looking for vacant land in an Issaquah zip code (98029), I don’t want to see listings in Bellingham. If I’m looking for rental property in a Redmond zip code (98052), I don’t want to see listings in Mercer Island.

Regarding my beef about school information; since only half the schools surrounding Lake Washington are above average, are only half are listed? I wonder if the MLS near Lake Wobegon has this problem? Besides, who makes the decision that the school that serves a property is bad? The buyer might think XYZ school district is great, but because the seller had a differing opinion (and didn’t disclose that information), they just lost a potential buyer who won’t bother looking at a property that they otherwise might have.

Regarding my beef about latitudes and longitudes; OK, you the agent have no control over this. It still doesn’t explain why the MLS does such a bad job of geocoding! Admittedly, most people probably don’t care (unless they use a computer). Unfortunately, since many people use computers to find property information (and that number is only increasing), it’s a problem that will only become more noticeable.

When you combine latitudes and longitudes with free digital maps and inexpensive computer databases, you can see the location of listings in the neighborhood and other points of interest with an ease that was impossible to do (or at least very expensive) only a few short years ago. As they say, the 3 most important words in real estate are “Location, Location, & Location”, which means the most important part of a real estate listing web site is going to be “Maps, Maps & Maps” (as you can see by the growth of map-based real estate listings web sites this past year). Not having accurate latitudes and longitudes, makes it harder for software engineers to develop features the real estate buying, real estate selling, & internet surfing public increasingly are going to demand.

Pop quiz, which house is the better value? This ~$800K house or this ~$800K house? Without knowing how much living space I’m getting for my $800K, it makes my job as a buyer more difficult.

Just because you can’t get an exact measurement, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t measure. Most real estate listings & transactions have more legal paperwork & disclaimers than a Microsoft EULA! Furthermore, the NWMLS has the source for the square footage information associated with a listing. Couldn’t an agent argue the source should be liable? I assume the agent pays only pays if the error was in the sellers favor? Otherwise, isn’t listing a property with 0 square footage is asking for a lawsuit? Granted, I’m not an attorney, but if the risk was meaningful, I’d suspect all properties would have a square foot value of 0! So, if you get 3 different answers, pick the lowest value! Throw out the measurements from the French & Russian judges! Inaccurate data is always better than no data (at least for buyers).

Lastly, as computer based listing search & analysis tools become easier to use and more sophisticated, bad data is only going to be easier & easier to spot and less & less tolerated. Missing data makes the buyers job harder. Perhaps ironically, it also makes the sellers job more difficult as well. How can you draft an accurate competitive market analysis report if you don’t know what the size of your competitors are / were? Sure an agent could do the extra leg work of looking at the county records, but it’ll cost you more time (and time is money).

I guess the moral of this post, is caveat emptor. Although buyers may want to trust MLS data, sellers have a motivation to give you a reason not to. Perhaps, there is a market for a CarFax like service, that provides better MLS data, than the MLS? Despite my complaining, none of these obstacles are going to stop software engineers from giving the internet home buying public what they want (complete & accurate listing data). The internet has given the buyer more knowledge & more power in the marketplace. Sellers (& their agents) would be wise to embrace this trend, instead of avoiding it.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

PS – This blog posting information is not warranted. Reader should verify all information to their satisfaction. Information is based on data available to the poster, including county records. The information has not been verified by the poster and should be verified by the reader. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall the poster (Robbie), Caffeinated Software, or its suppliers be liable for any special, incidental, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages whatsoever (including, but not limited to, damages for loss of profits or confidential or other information, for business interruption, for personal injury, for loss of privacy, for failure to meet any duty including of good faith or of reasonable care, for negligence, and for any other pecuniary or other loss whatsoever) arising out of or in any way related to the use of or inability to use this blog post.

Radcribs Stealing Trulia Code for their Real Estate Search?

I received this email from a Rain City Guide reader this morning:

Radcribs had to take down its NYC real estate mashup. Radcribs basically copied every bit of its code from Trulia (all the javascript, all the CSS for layouts, all the HTML templates, etc). Trulia’s lawyers made short work of that. You’ll see that Radcribs is back to just providing what is basically a ripoff of PropertyShark’s service. (PropertyShark actually had to file suit against Radcribs for copyright infringement to get Radcribs to back off.)

Like the top-notch investigative reporter that I am ;), I was able to confirm that Radcribs was stealing appeared to be copying code from Trulia from a very good source who I’ll leave anonymous.

Without a doubt, I’m going to take RadCribs (and CityCribs, which appears to be run by the same people) down from my list of Innovative real estate search tools since they don’t seem to be doing much innovation.

If I hear anything else interesting about this story, I’ll be sure to report it!

UPDATE: Based on some feedback from my source, I decided to tone down the assertion a bit since I may have been overzealous in my reporting…