ARDELL on "Where is the 2007 Market heading?"

My prediction has been, that the 2007 Market will be similar to the market of 2006, that being strong and upwardly mobile.  Not necessarily as strong as 2005, when interest rates were lower, but on an even keel with, or better than, last year.

To determine momentum of the market, I look at absorption issues, and reduce the study to a somewhat predictable and mainstream market segment.  To keep apples to apples, I target that portion of the market with the highest number of sales in a year’s time.  The results are almost startling, with regard to upward momentum since the first of the year, and even better than I expected to see. 

Where “in escrow”, which is both STI and Pending, is much higher than “for sale” and/or closed in January 07, the forward momentum of the market is strongest.

Seattle has too many new properties not reflected in the stats (i.e.”1 of 8 townhomes”), as does high end.  I am using the market segment I find is best for prediction purposes using the MLS, that being Redmond (98052 only), Bellevue, Kirkland and Bothell (98011 only).  I am also using “up to $650,000” as that is the segment with the most properties changing hands in a year’s time, based on the stats I did on a running basis last year.

I also use this market segment because I can readily visualise the properties involved, and so my conclusions are more valid than areas like Tacoma or Snohomish or even all of King County.  The segment I use, accounts for both strongest and weaker markets and “residential” vs. condo.

98052 – Redmond – 37 residential for sale, 40 in escrow and 18 closed in Jan. 07; 44 condos for sale, 69 in escrow and 19 closed in Jan. 07.

98011 – Bothell – 40 residential for sale, 37 in escrow and 18 closed in Jan. 07; 15 condos for sale, 28 in escrow and 15 closed in Jan. 07

98034 –  Kirkland – 35 residential for sale, 29 in escrow and 27 closed in Jan. 07; 32 condos for sale, 37 in escrow and 25 closed in Jan. 07

98033 – Kirkland “proper” – 23 residential for sale, 15 in escrow and 19 closed in Jan. 06; 50 condos for sale, 62 in escrow and 21 closed in Jan. 07

98004 – Bellevue – 4 residential for sale, 2 in escrow and 1 closed in Jan. 07; 27 condos for sale, 21 in escrow and 8 closed in Jan. 07

98005 – Bellevue – 5 residential for sale, 4 in escrow and 2 closed in Jan. 07; 14 residential for sale, 40 in escrow and 8 closed in Jan. 07.

98006 – Bellevue – 17 residential for sale, 13 in escrow and 9 closed in Jan. 07; 20 condos for sale, 14 in escrow and 6 closed in Jan. 07

98007 – Bellevue – 5 residential for sale, 9 in escrow and 5 closed in Jan. 07; 6 condos for sale, 12 in escrow and 16 closed in Jan. 07

98008 – Bellevue – 18 residential for sale, 20 in escrow and 11 closed in Jan. 07; 1 condo for sale, 4 in escrow and 4 closed in Jan. 07

98005 is a bit skewed, as Woodbridge and Oasis are long escrows, so 40 in escrow is not reflective of a less than 30 day market activity.  New construction in escrow will always throw off momentum stats.  That is why I don’t do the high end this way when I am looking for “people’s recent decision to purchase” forward momentum.  There is some of that in others, but not as much as in 98005.

I also break it down this way, so people can see where they might most likely find a single family home priced under $650,000, or where they might most likely find a condo at an entry level price.  The highest numbers will equal the highest ongoing availability, or whether you are looking “for a needle in a haystack” in that area.

2007?  If you list it, price it well, it looks good and is priced under $650,000…it WILL sell.

The Lame List – Real Estate Web Sites that Suck

evccliftIn a recent post, Galen said “And no, it’s not what Windermere or ZipRealty already do: their sites s-u-c-k compared to true consumer-oriented sites like Amazon.com and Google.”.

Now, comparing nearly any web site to Amazon or Google isn’t a fair comparission. Google & Amazon have 1) many of the best software engineers on the planet working for them and 2) they have thousands of them working on their web site. Microsoft (which is in the same league as Google & Amazon) is said to spend over $100 million/year on it’s corporate web site (I’m sure they spend even more on MSN)!

The only real estate company that I can think of that could afford that level of R&D is Cendant (they own Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA). Ironically enough they also own Orbitz & CheapTickets.com (who are Expedia competitors). The vast majority of brokers are probably smallish companies that under-invest in technology (and Cendant is probably happy enough with the status quo that they aren’t going to rock the boat until the waves of change force it upon them).

Now, I do think ZipRealty’s site is medicore and Windermere’s site is average. But suck is way too strong a word. Could their sites be better? Yeah. But given they aren’t billion dollar internet/software companies with multi-million dollar R&D budgets, I think the sites are OK. I could do better, but don’t mistake a medicore site for one that sucks.

What I want you to do is tell me about the WORST agent & broker web sites out there. I only want to hear about the truly awful. Let me give you an example of how bad it can be.

Teri Herrera, is a very successful agent at John L. Scott with whom I purchased my first house with. However her web site makes me cringe in horror. Fortunately, she’s a much better agent than her web site would suggest, but her site is nothing but a flash link farm. Nothing of value other than links to other places and it’s wrapped up as an obnoxious flash app. At least ZipRealty & Windermere have branded MLS searches, instead of being just a link farm or framing somebody else content.

See, ZipRealty & Windermere look pretty good now, don’t they.

Robbie

Climbing into bed with the competition

I caught an investigative bug tonight, and I feel a strong need to post this speculation…

  • Fact 1 — Rob over at Your Seattle’ Neighborhood Specialist had some great commentary on Zillow in the months leading up to their beta release
  • Fact 2 — Rob has been silent since the release of Zillow
  • Fact 3 — Marlow Harris also noticed this, so I’m not the only one wondering what happened to Rob
  • Fact 4 — A reader pointed out to me that hourlyagents.com service is no longer available.
  • Fact 5 — Rob used to heavily promote the Hourly Agents site and his blog still has a link to it
  • Fact 6 — The hourly agents site now says “This Domain is For Sale — Please contact info@hourlyagents.com for details. — In the meantime, please join me at Redfin”

So when Marlow asks:

Where are you? Where are all your editorials and opinions? You were writing up a storm before, but now that Zillow has revealed itself, you’re silent.

Did you get that job there, after all? Did you sign some sort of oath of silence?

WHAT DO YOU THINK???”

I think the answer is worse than an oath of silence… I don’t think he’s working for Zillow (those people have definitely woken up to the idea of communicating!), but rather, I think he must have climbed into bed with the competition!

UPDATE 1: I just found out that Redfin started blogging one day before Zillow, but… it slipped past me as they haven’t shared any link love (yet!).

Update 2: Redfin added Rain City Guide to their sidepanel! Thanks you guys! Now all I need is for the HouseValues blog to add a link to Rain City Guide and I’ll have completed a Seattle Real Estate Technology Trifecta! 😉

Update 3: The Trifecta is complete!

Free Margaritas!!!*

margaritaWho servers the best margarita in Seattle?

Apparently, I stirred up a little bit of a hornet’s nest as there is definitely some contention in the blogoshere as to the best margarita in Seattle.

Some say that La Carta de Oaxaca serves up the best margarita, while other good sources say that El Gallito is the place to go.

But the real answer may be a different place altogether! (Did I mention that I serve up a mean margarita?)

There is really only way one to find out, and that is a Gringo Tour! (Am I allowed to say that on a real estate blog?)

I’m all over organizing a tour to get the determine the margarita in Seattle… If you’re interested in joining the tour bus, let me know, along with the evenings within the next week that would work for you. I’m thinking that this weekend would be best although both of these places can get quite busy!

Some people who simple need to show up include Virginia from Seattle Pulse, Chris from Metroblogging and Chris Pirillo from, well, Chris Pirillo, but all are welcome! Just email me if you’re interested and I’ll coordinate from there!

party drinks

* Free Margaritas are ALWAYS available to people who use Anna to purchase or sell a home. Unless, or course, I find out there is a policy against offering Margarita’s to clients… 😉

Electricity isn't a competitve advantage anymore

I find all the F.U.D. regarding opening up MLS data to be kind of overblown. Perhaps, it’s because I’ve been a software engineer my entire career, and the notion of technology changing business models and society at large seems anti-climatic to me. Perhaps, I have this attitude because my former employer, embraced the notion of “Only the Paranoid Survive“? Regardless of the root causes, the fact that the N.A.R., and other members of the real estate industry are so scared of the upcoming tidal-wave of technology changes just seems so short-sighted.

Your friendly neighborhood realtor from the 22nd century?
After all, during the past 100 years or so, the only constant has been change. So the fact that more technological change is coming, shouldn’t surprise anyone. I don’t remember the explosion of digital photography during the past decade cause anywhere near this much fuss, do you? What about the growth of photocopiers & other printing technologies during the last 40 years? Before computers, I’ve heard that people used to use a device called paper to exchange & store information, and the ability to manage these paper records efficiently was a key competitive advantage for many businesses. And yet, I can’t help but wonder if the MLS placed the same kinds of restrictions on printed property listings 30 years ago that they are trying to place on digital property listing today. Surely those all free real estate magazines at the grocery store are harming agents & brokers, by giving away valuable information for free?

I’d argue that associating digital photos with electronic MLS records on free web sites has done more to decrease the value that people place on a real estate agent, than anything I or other software engineers are going to invent during the next few years. Maybe the embrace of digital photography was just a way to get back at all those real estate magazine publishers?

Anyway, my advice would be to tell the powers that be to get over it. Things are changing: deal with it. Nobody thinks electricity is a competitive advantage anymore and in a few years from now, I suspect nobody will give the new generation of real estate web applications a second thought. I suspect very few realtors are afraid of the value that maids, handymen, and landscappers bring to the real estate industry but yet somehow software engineers & database administrators are out to destroy the industry. I can’t speak for all IT professionals, but I think it’s safe to say our area of expertise is NOT in the sale, finance, or purchase of properties (which should be the core competency of any real estate agent/broker). Similarly, it’s foolish for the real estate industry to think that they can job a better job of developing tools that let Joe & Jane Consumer search & browse listing data than software engineers. After all, if the engineers at Google can search 20 billion web pages in a fraction of second, processing the 20,000 properties in the MLS is sleepwalking by comparison.

On a related thought, how did people buy & sell homes in the “dark ages”? That seems more mind boggling to me than anything I or the folks at Zillow are going to be doing in the next year.

In closing, it’s not geeks with SQL Servers or even free web servers you should be scared of. It’s those real estate androids showing homes at a holodeck near you that should keep you up at night. That’s REALLY going to shake things up.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

A Birthday Request!

This past week I received the ultimate gift for my 30th birthday, which just so happens to be today!

With everything going on, I really haven’t spent much time thinking about my birthday (surprise, surprise!), but it did occur to me that maybe I should mix in a new feature of Rain City Guide with a birthday request.

Some background… I’ve been inspired by Jim over at J. LeRoy to write more book reviews. Some of the book reviews will be directly related to real estate (as in “how to buy, sell, invest” books), while other books will only loosely (very loosely) be connected to real estate (but I’m pretty good at stretching things!). The important thing is that I’m going to keep reading (and reviewing) and switching off between fiction and non-fiction in order to add some balance!

Knowing for a few weeks that I’ve wanted to include book reviews in Rain City Guide, I’m a little ahead of the game and have prepared a few book reviews that I’ll be publishing soon. However, I’ve got a problem. Only a few weeks into this endeavor, I’ve got plenty of non-fiction books lined up in my Amazon WishList, but I’m already out of fiction books. I’m in desperate need of some good fiction stories!

All this leads to my birthday request…

What books do you recommend I read in this upcoming year?

Despite my preference for fiction, there are no rules for your recommendations. Feel free to include one, two or ten books… Feel free to include books about investing in real estate, building environmentally-friendly homes, blogging, history, Japanese culture, and so on… Feel free to include books that have taught, inspired, or challenged you… Most importantly, I’m just looking for books that will keep me turning the pages!

Where's the Beef?

In my last post, I awoken Ardell from her winter hibernation. To which I feel I should both apologize and take the credit . Ardell raised many interesting points, that I feel that merit a response. First and foremost, I’ll admit I am somewhat biased, since I tend to view things through buyer-colored glasses and I overlooked the reasons why a seller might be less than completely forthcoming with their listing information.

Where's The Beef?Admittedly, my gripe about bad zip codes is pretty minor (less than 1% listings are affected). However, entering an incorrect zip code is like misspelling a street name, it just shows buyers a lack of attention to detail. If I’m a buyer looking for vacant land in an Issaquah zip code (98029), I don’t want to see listings in Bellingham. If I’m looking for rental property in a Redmond zip code (98052), I don’t want to see listings in Mercer Island.

Regarding my beef about school information; since only half the schools surrounding Lake Washington are above average, are only half are listed? I wonder if the MLS near Lake Wobegon has this problem? Besides, who makes the decision that the school that serves a property is bad? The buyer might think XYZ school district is great, but because the seller had a differing opinion (and didn’t disclose that information), they just lost a potential buyer who won’t bother looking at a property that they otherwise might have.

Regarding my beef about latitudes and longitudes; OK, you the agent have no control over this. It still doesn’t explain why the MLS does such a bad job of geocoding! Admittedly, most people probably don’t care (unless they use a computer). Unfortunately, since many people use computers to find property information (and that number is only increasing), it’s a problem that will only become more noticeable.

When you combine latitudes and longitudes with free digital maps and inexpensive computer databases, you can see the location of listings in the neighborhood and other points of interest with an ease that was impossible to do (or at least very expensive) only a few short years ago. As they say, the 3 most important words in real estate are “Location, Location, & Location”, which means the most important part of a real estate listing web site is going to be “Maps, Maps & Maps” (as you can see by the growth of map-based real estate listings web sites this past year). Not having accurate latitudes and longitudes, makes it harder for software engineers to develop features the real estate buying, real estate selling, & internet surfing public increasingly are going to demand.

Pop quiz, which house is the better value? This ~$800K house or this ~$800K house? Without knowing how much living space I’m getting for my $800K, it makes my job as a buyer more difficult.

Just because you can’t get an exact measurement, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t measure. Most real estate listings & transactions have more legal paperwork & disclaimers than a Microsoft EULA! Furthermore, the NWMLS has the source for the square footage information associated with a listing. Couldn’t an agent argue the source should be liable? I assume the agent pays only pays if the error was in the sellers favor? Otherwise, isn’t listing a property with 0 square footage is asking for a lawsuit? Granted, I’m not an attorney, but if the risk was meaningful, I’d suspect all properties would have a square foot value of 0! So, if you get 3 different answers, pick the lowest value! Throw out the measurements from the French & Russian judges! Inaccurate data is always better than no data (at least for buyers).

Lastly, as computer based listing search & analysis tools become easier to use and more sophisticated, bad data is only going to be easier & easier to spot and less & less tolerated. Missing data makes the buyers job harder. Perhaps ironically, it also makes the sellers job more difficult as well. How can you draft an accurate competitive market analysis report if you don’t know what the size of your competitors are / were? Sure an agent could do the extra leg work of looking at the county records, but it’ll cost you more time (and time is money).

I guess the moral of this post, is caveat emptor. Although buyers may want to trust MLS data, sellers have a motivation to give you a reason not to. Perhaps, there is a market for a CarFax like service, that provides better MLS data, than the MLS? Despite my complaining, none of these obstacles are going to stop software engineers from giving the internet home buying public what they want (complete & accurate listing data). The internet has given the buyer more knowledge & more power in the marketplace. Sellers (& their agents) would be wise to embrace this trend, instead of avoiding it.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

PS – This blog posting information is not warranted. Reader should verify all information to their satisfaction. Information is based on data available to the poster, including county records. The information has not been verified by the poster and should be verified by the reader. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall the poster (Robbie), Caffeinated Software, or its suppliers be liable for any special, incidental, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages whatsoever (including, but not limited to, damages for loss of profits or confidential or other information, for business interruption, for personal injury, for loss of privacy, for failure to meet any duty including of good faith or of reasonable care, for negligence, and for any other pecuniary or other loss whatsoever) arising out of or in any way related to the use of or inability to use this blog post.

Where in the World?

Since last September, I’ve been using a free stat program that maps the visitors to Rain City Guide. Last time I logged into the site, I notice that they’ve added a new toy (a poll feature) that has inspired me to ask a question I’ve wondered for quite some time…

The “cool” part about the poll is that the results will be mapped out based on where you are when you click “Add my Vote”! To see the map, just click on the “Show Results” link (or click here!)

How does it know where you are? The results are based on the IP address you use to access the internet. Big brotherish? Maybe… But that’s the reality when you surf the web, so it is probably best you’re aware of it!

The Joys of Geocoding

In my last post, I was asked what the accuracy of the locations in our generated Google Earth files are. Before I divulge that information, I’d like to explain some of the challenges of getting accurately geocoded data. (I’ll get on my soapbox and complain about the state of NWMLS data in my next post).

GPS Signal WiggleNow, in partial defense of realtors and the MLS, it is unrealistic to expect perfect data. For example, consumer-level GPS receivers aren’t always as accurate as one might think. This weekend I loaded up Microsoft Streets & Tips 2006 on my desktop computer, hooked up my GPS receiver, turned on GPS tracking , created a GPS trail, and walked away for an hour. An hour later, my map had a line drawing that resembled the type my 3 year old son likes to create. So even if a realtor was to use a GPS receiver, to get a latitude & longitude reading, it’s entirely possible that the measurement would be off by a house or two (or four).

Another problem, is that most digital maps are created with data sold by companies like TeleAtlas or NavTeq. The companies compile their data by driving around previously unknown streets & neighborhoods, with computers & GPS receivers (kinda like how that annoying guy in the Verizon ads, test their network). I should note that in-vehicle navigation systems are more accurate than GPS receivers alone, because the vehicle’s navigation system can also use the vehicle’s steeling wheel position and the speedometer to determine what your location is.

Unfortunately, by the time the Microsoft’s, Yahoo’s and Google’s of the world get their hands on the data, it is at least 3-6 months out of date (and probably closer to 12-18 months out of date by the time it gets on the web or published on a CD). This is a problem because about 25% of the properties in the NWMLS are new construction (where new construction is defined as a property that was built in 2005 or later). Since new construction is often located near new roads, the giants of digital mapping may be unable to help and are always in a position of playing catch up.

Then when the companies convert the raw data into digital maps, they end up using multiple sources of data, and interpolating it into one set of data they are going to use for a map. However, the data sources don’t always agree on where a point of interest is.

For example, Google Earth thinks the top of the Seattle Space Needle is at 47.620367° north latitude & 122.349005° west longitude. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s Virtual Earth, seems to think it’s located at 47.620336° north latitude & 122.348515° west longitude. Now, a few ten thousand-enths of a degree means the difference between the tip of the needle & one of the air conditioning units on the roof (a few yards). But if they can’t agree on where the top of the Space Needle is, it’s likely they aren’t going to agree on where 742 Evergreen Terrace is either. However, a few yards of error is better than a few miles of error (which is what can happen when I use raw NWMLS data)

Because of this, I have to geocode every single property in the database because I don’t trust the NWMLS data. So I to call Yahoo! Maps Web Services – Geocoding API to get a latitude & longitude for everything. Although Yahoo is far from perfect, at least it’s free and try’s harder than the MLS. So without further delay, here is the current geocoding precision of the points on our generated maps.

Geocoding Precision No. of properties Percentage
address 16341 80.20
street 1975 9.69
zip+4 43 .21
zip+2 343 1.68
zip 1644 8.07
city 25 .12
state 5 .02

In closing, I’d like to ask real estate professionals to be as complete and as accurate as possible when submitting listing data to their local MLS. I’d also like to state even if the MLS was accurate, it’s unrealistic to expect prefect geo-coding from imperfect data. If digital mapping companies and GPS technology can’t get it exactly right, a house or two off, is probably as accurate as you can realistically hope for given the current state of the art.

Robbie
Caffeinated Software