As Myballard.com reported, the ballard Denny’s is no longer. Without public notice, the building was taken down just 3 days after Benaroya received the demo permit (looks like the application was opened and issued on June 19th). Myballard.com did a great job reporting (with great pictures) on this demo, so check out that site for more info. Here is a video one of their viewers posted:
Category Archives: General
Negotiation Advices for "Denismurf"
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“HUGE leap to proposed new topic: Our 4th offer failed, we’re settling in for a long haul, and we would be riveted (better late than never) by a discussion on what protocols govern behavior among real estate agents, firms, and customers here. I can’t find a way to introduce new topics myself.
Seattle Real Estate – Que Pasa?
The other shoe has dropped. That’s the best way for me to describe the situation. Of significant interest to me is the relationship between the first and second quarters. Rarely, and not for a very long time, have prices in the second quarter dropped below prices of the first quarter of the year. This is a significant and telling change. To me it means a longer and sustained downturn is coming.
This “downturn” is not a “correction” phase. Corrections happen in gain taking, and are a result of prices going up. Our downturn in the Seattle Area is primarily and perhaps singularly the result of changes in the financing options available to buyers and persons needing to refinance. That’s both good news and bad news. The good news is that the impact should not be as great as it has been in areas of the Country who are experiencing BOTH a correction AND being impacted by financing issues. The bad news is that it will be harder to call how low and how long.
So What’s Happening out there right now? In a nutshell? The best is selling at lower prices and the worst isn’t selling at all. Lots of in between there.
Each week I post the stats on Sunday Night. Today I offer a quick visual reference. When looking at smaller segments of the marketplace, the abnormalities will be a bit more extreme because there is not enough volume in the final “closed in the last 30 days” to make it an accurate indicator. Consequently you need to look at that last number (closed in the last 30 days) in conjuction with the MMPSF of those currently in escrow and balance that with 2008 2nd quarter to date.
I used Redmond (detail here) mainly to show that the price changes are not totally about short sales and foreclosures and subprime financing issues. It’s a combination. No area is NOT impacted. Some are impacted more than others, but no area is NOT impacted and the full effect will not play out for at least 18 months due to lagging market segments. The first time buyer portion will play out in conjuction with those not able to refinance. Some areas will get a double whammy while others will only be adjusting to a reduction in the number of first time buyers. The 2nd and 3rd legs of the marketplace that need first time buyers to move them forward, will be impacted further down the road.
(above info and graphs not compiled or published by NWMLS – required disclosure)
Most importantly is do the stats agree with what we are seeing and hearing on the street?
What people want is the BEST property on market at the price of the worst propert on market 🙂 Some, in fact many, are going home after looking at property and waiting for that to happen. Some are making offers based on the lowest price on market to the best house and largely being unsuccessful at accomplishing that. Those who are buying, are buying the best property on market at the lowest price they can achieve.
Consequently when property is selling at a higher price per square foot, it is not an indication of rising prices, but of best on market selling at a lower price than it would have sold in the 3rd quarter of 2007, but still more than the worst and cheapest property on market.
We’re still about 10 days away from the full stats of the second quarter, but too many people need up to date info now. For the most part, sellers need to be a whole lot more reasonable and accommodating than buyers. It may not be a full fledged buyer’s market, but the large majority of sellers have to adapt to the fact that is is NOT a seller’s market.
Sunday Night Stats – Prices Down
Asking prices of property coming on market continue to inch up, even as prices of property going into escrow and closing continues to inch down.
As to prices, so far condos are down 6.7% from peak pricing; Residential is down 4.8% from peak and residential “in escrow” down 6.5% from peak pricing. (I am showing the peak price in bold in the charts below for easy comparison)
So far it looks like this will be the first quarter in a very long time where the median price per square foot is trending downward in the condo market, and flat at best in the residential market. Considering that the 2nd quarter has exceeded the 1st quarter as to price in recent years, this is significant news. We have another 8 days in the month, but look at the volume and prices in the charts below.
I’m going to continue to keep a running total of YOY. Last week I went all the way back to 2000. In future weeks I will continue to post 2004 to present so we can see where volume peaked, and track pricing to see how the volume changes are slowly impacting prices, and how these prices compare to previous quarters.
If you read the colums down instead of left to right, it should make a little more sense to you. We will see a lot of changes in the 2nd quarter starts in the next couple of weeks. But given the weekly stats are continuing to show weak numbers as to median price per square foot as to properties “in escrow”, I don’t think we are going to see the expansion we are used to between the 1st and 2nd quarters as to volume (no surprise) OR price. I’ll post and compare the percentages when all of the results are in for the month of June.
King Couny Condos
2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195
2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224
2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278
2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294
2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,244 – $290 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/22/08)
Changes in condo stats for this week
Active Listings: 4,049 – UP 85 – median price $324,950 – MPPSF asking $321 – DOM 60
In Escrow: 929 – DOWN 17 – median price $289,000 – MPPSF asking $286 – DOM – 50
Sold YTD : 2,504 – UP 120 – median list price $295,000 – median sold price $289,950 – median PPSF – $295 DOM 48
Residential King county
2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165
2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195
2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217
2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221
2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 3,846 – $219 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/22/08)
Changes in residential stats for this week
In Escrow: 2,931 – DOWN 56 – median asking price $449,000 – DOM 47 – MPPSF $215
SOLD YTD: 7,489 – UP 377 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $219
Actively for sale 11,995 – UP 178 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
Remember, the in escrow MPPSF is lower and those are ASKING prices, not sold prices. Sold prices have been running about $10,000 less than asking prices in both the single family and condo markets.
There is always a first in escrow, always.
I can’t make this stuff up. This happened today.
Agent: “Please send me the HUD when you have it ready.”
Escrow: “Sure, no problem.”
A short time later…..
Agent: “I got your e-mail and I want to know how much my buyer needs to bring to close.”
Escrow: “Did you review the HUD?”
Agent: “Yes, I have it right here, but I want to know how much my buyer needs to bring to close?”
Escrow: dead silence….a moment goes by, then…”It’s on the HUD.”
Agent: “But, I want to hear you say it.”
Bye-Bye STI
The NWMLS has announced that as of June 24th 2008, they will no longer use the term. Active STI. It will become Pending Inspection and two new statuses will be created, Pending Feasibility and Pending BU Requested.
For those who are members and have access to the database, all three statuses will appear in the pending section of the Hotsheet. Pending Inspection will be used when the property has a signed Purchase and Sale Agreement and has an inspection scheduled. Pending Feasibility will be used for listings where a purchase and sale agreement is signed pending a feasibility study. Pending BU Requested will be used when the seller would like to receive back up offers.
Once the inspection or feasibility study is completed the listing must be changed. The listing would be set to Active, if the inspection or feasibility study were not waived and the sale fails, or Pending, if waived.
The most significant change is that properties with a Pending Inspection status (formally STI) will not be visible on the public websites. All pending statuses shall be considered off-market and will be treated as follows:
- They will not accrue market time.
- They will be included in the Pending section of the NWMLS monthly published statistics.
- They will not be included in the NWMLS Standard IDX feed and cannot be displayed on a web site.
I’m sort of surprised that Pending BU Requested will not be in the IDX feed and can not be shown on public websites. This goes counter to what Sellers want. That is, continued exposure to the market. Perhaps this will change with time too if the NWMLS receives feedback about it.
Sound Transit test push
All aboard! The track is done, but the electric isn’t up yet, so Sound Transit did a test push a few days ago. I sort of wish the Central Link had a dirtier name to complement the Seattle S.L.U.T. (t-shirts here).
Sunday Night Stats – King County
I’ve been reporting the change in volume and MPPSF. But let’s go back a bit so you can see the change from an historical perspective, and also help put things into focus as we move forward from here. By seeing how we have gotten to where we are, you can better determine if what is happening currently and in the future is “normal” for that time of year, or a change from the normal relationships of quantity and price from quarter to quarter.
Format is Year, Quarter, number of units sold and median price per square foot.
King County Condos
2000 – 1Q x,xxx – $xxx, 2Q 1,574 – $154, 3Q 1,725 – $157, 4Q 1,491 – $162
2001 – 1Q 1,444 – $163, 2Q 1,770 – $165, 3Q 1,816 – $174, 4Q 1,380 – $166
2002 – 1Q 1,464 – $168, 2Q 1,885 – $172, 3Q 1,885 – $172, 4Q 1,642 – $173
2003 – 1Q 1,518 – $168, 2Q 2,011 – $179, 3Q 2,338 – $184, 4Q 1,911 – $183
2004 – 1Q 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195
2005 – 1Q 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224
2006 – 1Q 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278
2007 – 1Q 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294
2008 – 1Q 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,126 – $288 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/16/08)
King Couny Condos
Active Listings: 3,964 – DOWN 22 – median price $325,000 – MPPSF asking $320 – DOM 60
In Escrow: 946 – UP 8 – median price $288,250 – MPPSF asking $288 – DOM – 50
Sold YTD : 2,384 – UP 97 – median list price $294,950 – median sold price $289,000 – median PPSF – $294 DOM 48
King County Residential
2000 – 1Q x,xxx – $xxx, 2Q 6,111 – $130, 3Q 5,994 – $127, 4Q 5,248 – $128
2001 – 1Q 4,662 – $131, 2Q 6,336 – $135, 3Q 6,454 – $133, 4Q 4,963 – $131
2002 – 1Q 4,964 – $134, 2Q 6,740 – $140, 3Q 6,320 – $140, 4Q 5,897 – $138
2003 – 1Q 5,479 – $141, 2Q 7,783 – $143, 3Q 8,683 – $148, 4Q 6,859 – $147
2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165
2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195
2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217
2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221
2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 3,471- $220 (2Q incomplete data – postings as of 6/16/08)
Residential King county
In Escrow: 2,987 – UP 80 – median asking price $448,900 – DOM 46 – MPPSF $213
SOLD YTD: 7,112 – UP 306 – median sold price $439,900- DOM 49 – MPPSF $220
Actively for sale 11,817- UP 64 – MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $337
Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)
Go Ray! Go Ray!!
Go Celtics! You can do it! Because you have OUR Ray Allen!
Flat Screen TV – Is it "attached"?
Ardell’s Advice: “When in Doubt – Take it OUT” BEFORE showing your home to prospective buyers!
Over the years the thing that creates the most controversy in a real estate transaction has been something 
that is attached to the home. Different parts of the Country deal with these issues in local custom fashion.
When I started in real estate back in 1990, the primary cause of confusion was the dining room chandelier. Often sellers wanted to take it to their new home, but clearly a light fixture is attached to the home and is sold with the home.
After “the chandelier” the new attachment item became the “sub-zero” refrigerator. Up to that point, washers, dryers and refrigerators were NOT considered to be part of the real estate; dishwashers and stoves were. Rule of thumb being If you can simply unplug an appliance and remove it without any other effort, it goes with the seller. Refrigerators were like your alarm clock. Unplug it and take it with you. Then builders and kitchen remodelers started “building in” the refrigerator with panels that matched the kitchen cabinetry. The expectation became if it is a “built-in refrigerator” it stayed. If it was a standard plug-it-in-and-shove-it-into-an-open-space-for-it refrigerator, it went with the seller. Washer and dryer “hook-ups” were part of the real estate. The washer and dryer were not.
When the market weakened and became a buyer’s market, sellers of lower priced housing that fit into the category of “first time buyer” started to include the washer, dryer and refrigerator. When there were 20 of the same type of condo on market, often the seller who listed it with “all appliances” became the most likely to sell. Higher priced housing was not expected to include the washer, dryer and refrigerator. “First time buyer” housing was expected to leave the washer, dryer and refrigerator.
Then there’s the curtains. Most places where I have worked, the rod that is attached to the wall was sold 
with the home. The curtain that slipped off the rod went with the seller. The window treatment that was attached to the wall (usually a fabric covered boxy wood valance) stayed with the house. Blinds and shutters stay with the house. At one point I said to the seller “if you have to go get a screw driver to remove it…you probably shouldn’t be removing it, so call me first.”
Here in the Seattle area, the curtains DO go with the house, unlike most of the Country where only the blinds and rods go with the house. Here’s what the boilerplate of the contract has to say about this issue:
“Included Items. …built in appliances, wall to wall carpeting, curtains, drapes and other window treatments, Window and door screens, awnings, storm door and windows, installed television antennas, ventilating, air conditioning and heating fixtures, trash compactor, fireplace doors, gas logs and gas log lighters, irrigation fixtures, electric garage door openers and remotes, water heaters, installed electrical fixtures, lighting fixtures, shrubs, plants and trees planted in the ground, all bathroom and other fixtures and all associated operating equipment…”
I don’t even want to tell you how many times a seller drove out of town with the garage door remote in his car by accident. Or how many times there is a two or three car garage, but only one remote control. Most people are surprised that curtains actually stay with the house, when they slip off of the rod quite easily. The one that defies logic is when a buyer expects to get the door knocker with the previous owner’s last name engraved in it, or the sell expects to remove that door knocker without replacing it with a similar one and leaves a hole in the front door.
Over time, contracts and local custom worked through these issues. Today we have the “Wall-mounted Flat Screen TV” to deal with. Might that now fall under the heading of “installed electrical fixtures”? If the TV slips out of the mount and unplugs…then there’s “the mount”. If the flyer and mls said “all appliances included…is the wall mounted TV an “appliance”?
Obviously I just had one of these situations. The wall mounted TV was not simply “plugged in”. The cable for the TV came up through the wall via the crawl space and attached directly to the TV. There was no “cable plate” on the wall. Of course we really can’t see what is behind that TV, can we? The seller removed the TV, the Mount AND the cable that went down through the wall and over to the floor type TV connection.
It all boils down to what does this buyer need and expect. If they don’t have a flat screen TV, well then they probably want the wall to be returned to the condition it was before the TV was there. If they DO have a flat screen TV to be mounted on the wall…well then they want the cable there with a plate and an electrical outlet with a plate at that spot on the wall. Do they want the wall mount? Does their TV fit into that wall mount?
At what point does a wall mounted TV that is hard wired into the wall without outlets become “an installed electrical fixture” per the terms of the contract and included in the sale of the house? I don’t think anyone expects to get someone else’s TV…or do they? What about a Theater Room with a mounted projector and screen? Do you simply remove the projector? What about all of the wiring that makes it function? Speakers? Speaker wires? Satellite dishes?
From my perspective my advice is the same as it has been for the last 18 years…”If you have to go get a screw driver to remove something (or hire someone to “de-install” something)…CALL ME FIRST!” Then we work out a “true meeting of the minds” between the buyer and the seller, before creating a bone of contention over a $20 cable connection.
Will the wall mounted flat screen TVs and hardwired projectors in the ceiling go the way of the built-in refrigerators? How about “under the counter appliances” where you have to unscrew the mounts in the cabinets to get your coffee pot?
Where do YOU draw the line and what exactly is YOUR interpretation of “an installed electrical fixture”? For sellers: “When in Doubt – Take it OUT” BEFORE you put your home on the market. Replace it with what the buyer will actually be getting, before the first buyer steps through the front door and starts believing that “what they SEE is what they GET”.