Category Archives: Seattle Real Estate Stats

Zillow and the SeattlePI Partner-up for Property Searches

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Zillow and SeattlePI business partnership

As is being widely announced in the news this morning, Zillow.com and the SeattlePI.com websites have partnered to offer co-branded website property searches. Ironically as of 8am you can find this story on Reuters, Inman News, and of course Twitter and Facebook. But Ironically it is still missing from the Homepage of SeattlePI.com.

The website will also offer Zillow’s other features such as home values, “just sold” data, local market data, etc.  As well as their custom real estate community content via Zillow Advice and mortgage rates from their Mortgage Marketplace function.

This raises some interesting issues for other companies, organizations, brokerages, and agents who  have property search functionality built into their blogs and websites in order to drive traffic to their sites, and ultimately derive business from it. Rain City Guide is a great example of a website that has recently added property search functionality through M Realty in hopes of garnering more viewers, and potentially a revenue stream as well. Many agents, including myself, have spent years developing websites that we use to attract potential buyers and sellers. Is Zillow now officially our competition?

Strategically this makes a lot of sense for both companies as the SeattlePI is struggling to re-create it’s business model after shutting down it’s printed newspaper version in March. And Zillow has recently been monetizing their searches through selling advertising to agent’s by zip codes.

I wonder what RCG’s readers and contributers think of this turn of events. It’s definately a “game changer”. The question is, what’s the new game going be like, and who’s going to get to play?

Sunday Night Stats – King County, Seattle and Eastside

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Ardell_aug-kcWhile I am not seeing any huge surprises in the market overall in King County, there were some jaw-dropping results in individual neighborhoods.

Amazingly great results from Downtown through 85th in both the first and second price tiers.

Amazingly poor results in Kirkland’s 98033 vs 98034 zip codes.  Those areas are usually reversed in terms of performance.

Redmond did not perform as well as they did last year. Bellevue only doing well in the lowest price tier.

All of King County still struggling in the over $1M market, with no exceptions.

The clear winner by far shown in the 2nd graph here, as compared to other parts of Seattle and the Eastside. Those figures of only 133 for sale in the lowest price tier, with 455 sold YTD, is beyond anyone’s wildest dreams for this market. My guess as to the dismal results for 98033 is that most of the cheapest homes used to be sold for lot value…and there are few takers for building lots and tear downs these days. The remainder of the problem is likely that homes are just overpriced, and buyers are getting much better at finding true value, vs negoatiating off of list price. This is sending the 98033 buyers into 98034 for better values and larger and nicer homes for the money.

I will be doing some in depth studies of the neighborhoods from Downtown through 85th to see if Queen Anne is outperforming Capitol Hill or if Fremont is outperforming Green Lake. Overall…as a group…clearly the best neighborhoods in terms of consistent performance which could be the hedge one is looking for against further price declines.

(Required Disclosure – The data used in this post is not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Hand calculated by ARDELL.)

Ardell_aug_dt_-_85

Where is the King County Housing Market Going?

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The graph below shows us how easy it was to spot that the market was going sideways in 2006 and 2007. How credible was it that almost double the amount of people could afford a house for more than $400,000 in 2006 and 2007, than in 2005 and the years prior?

kc400 

I say we can expect the 3,921 homes sold for over $400,000 to increase to about 6,500. That will be the sign that the market has “recovered”. Recovery will be about volume recovering…not prices. If you remove 2006 and 2007 numbers from the chart below, and replace 3,921 with 6,500, that would be a natural progression.

These stats are from 1/1 to 8/15 for the years 2001 through 2009. Earlier today I was looking at the change in the number of homes sold for less than $400,000. In 2001 that segment represented 82% of homes sold. Affordability reduced by 50% by 2007 when only 40% of homes sold, sold for less than $400,000. We are now back up to 50% with more homes sold for $400,000 or less this year than last year.

So where is the market going? If 11,500 people could afford homes priced at $400,000 or less back in 2001 and 2002, it’s safe to assume at least that many people can afford to buy them now.

So recovery will look like 6,500 selling for more than $400,000 and 13,500 or so selling for under $400,000. Again, these numbers are for the period 1/1 to 8/15 to coincide with the numbers we have for the current year. These numbers also tell us that the housing credit went a long way toward bolstering the lower end of the market. Even though volume of sales is down from 10,458 last year to 8.686 this year, homes sold for less than $400,000 increased from 4,292 to 4,765.

I don’t think prices will go up and I don’t think the recovery will happen in terms of home prices. Recovery will be volume based, with over $400,000 improving by 60% to 65% and the under $400,000 market improving by nearly 3X what it is right now.

Required Disclosure: Stats are not posted, compiled or verified by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Sunday Night Stats – Seattle Area Home Prices

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Earlier tonight I calculated some current results comparing the Spring selling Seasons of 2005 through 2009.  The results are fairly redundant and not much changed from my bottom call back in February. I did some detailed stats for Woodinville and Greenlake-Fremont 98103, and there are not many changes or surprises. My call of 20% under peak pricing unless it is a short sale or bank-owned property, is continuing to hold, and I expect that to stay the same for at least a couple of years.

In 98103 one surprise was as to volume sold between single family homes and townhomes. With the decline in single family home prices, the volume of those sold did not decline from last year, in fact it increased slightly at the expense of townhome sales. (Caption on the graph should be 98103 Median Sold Price) and that excludes the townhomes. Towhomes are running at $338,000 vs. $429,475 for the same period last year.

I would expect prices to fall at some point doing the 4th quarter, as usual, and then next year’s Spring Bounce period to run at about the current levels.

98103

(required disclosure by NWMLS: Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

FHA Suspends Taylor, Bean & Whitaker

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I feel like I’m one of the few mortgage originators who have never worked with mortgage giant TBW…many mortgage brokers and lenders do.   FHA’s Press release states:

“TBW is the third largest direct endorsement lender of FHA-insured loans and the eighth largest issuer of Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities.”

They are a significant mortgage company and this will impact those brokers and lenders who rely on TBW for FHA financing.   This suspension is temporary “pending the completion of an investigation by HUD’s Office of Inspector General, an ongoing review by the Department’s Office of Housing, and any legal proceedings that may ensue.”

From HUD’s News Release today:

FHA and Ginnie Mae are imposing these actions because TBW failed to submit a required annual financial report and misrepresented that there were no unresolved issues with its independent auditor even though the auditor ceased its financial examination after discovering certain irregular transactions that raised concerns of fraud. FHA’s suspension is also based on TBW’s failure to disclose, and its false certifications concealing, that it was the subject of two examinations into its business practices in the past year.

“Today, we suspend one company but there is a very clear message that should be heard throughout the FHA lending world – operate within our standards or we won’t do business with you,” said HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan.

TBW has the right to appeal, however HUD is not delaying their actions.  In addition, HUD debarment of two top executives at TBW. 

This must be leaving many borrowers and mortgage brokers scrambling for other sources to send their FHA transactions in process. 

Moving to Seattle – Bridges and Traffic

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Feb2006Storm4185

Thinking about moving to Seattle? Wondering what the traffic is like around here? Before you look at homes on the internet, I strongly suggest you study the Transportation Layout of the Seattle Area.

Often where you live, involves which side of “the bridge” you work on. This Seattle Area Traffic map gives you an excellent broad overview of how you get to and from. Study the “black traffic clog points” on that map for a two week period at various times each day during that two week period. That will give you a pretty good idea of normal traffic patterns, except for the few times each year when the bridge is closed.

Take a long hard look at Lake Washington. It’s HUGE and worthy of due consideration as to how you are planning to get over or around it.

My perspective centers more around the 520 bridge, and around the north side of Lake Washington, with occasional travel over the 1-90 bridge. Locals always refer to this bridge as “The 520 Bridge”, but if you are looking for info on it,  you will find it under “Evergreen Point Floating Bridge” in wikipedia, even though the name was officially changed to “The Governor Albert D. Rosselini Bridge-Evergreen Point” in 1988.

Sometimes people will simply say “the 520”, but more often they will say that when referring to the part of that road that is on The Eastside, vs the floating bridge portion of that “road” going over Lake Washington.

One of the reasons I decided to write on this today, is because I was reading updates to the Pontoon Construction Project posted on The Washington State Department of Transportation website. On a good day, travelling back and forth across the 520 Bridge is not a huge deal. On a bad day (when the bridge is closed or partially blocked by a stalled vehicle) one would have been wise to consider the alternative travel options, when deciding where to buy a home.

My general advice is to buy a home on the side of the bridge where you work, unless there is a really good reason not to do that. Very often my first question of someone who calls me about buying a home here in the Seattle Area, especially if they are moving here for a new job, is “Where are you going to be working?”

Collaboration: The important DNA in any small business

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Collaboration:  Do you have this DNA in your small business?  Is it part of your mission statement or mantra?

This is not so much an insight into how a successful real estate transaction comes to fruition as much as it is a testimony of what makes any task, job, objective or goals conclude with a positive outcome.  Whether you are in the military and command a small unit of soldiers or, what I commonly describe the role of  a Realtor as,  “the Conductor

Mukilteo Real Estate: #10 best community in America by Money Magazine

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This past week I retrieved my latest issue of Money Magazine from the mailbox and was pleasantly surprised to find that Money Magazine ranked the seaside community of Mukilteo as among the very best communities to live in.   Ranked number ten in the country by the magazine,  the town offers spectacular views of the Puget Sound, the Olympics, and the Cascades if your home is situated to look east.   Among the reasons to consider living in Mukilteo were the good schools and lower property taxes when comparing to other communities in the study.

In today’s market, when you consider the housing price pullback, community, schools, employment and intangibles, Snohomish County offers some of the very best real estate in the Northwest.

I can certainly attest to the spectacular setting in Mukilteo.  While waiting for the Ferry to sign some clients on Whidbey Island this past Spring (one of the perks of being in the escrow business is traveling to different communities)   I took some pictures of the “glass-like” water scenery (can be very rough) in the morning.  I’ve never seen any portion of the Puget Sound water so calm.

Mukilteo Ferry Landing

Mukilteo Ferry Landing & Lighthouse -Photo Copyright Tim S. Kane 2009

Mukilteo Ferry & Ivars

Mukilteo Ferry at Ivars Fish Bar - Photo Copyright Tim S. Kane 2009

Mukilteo Ferry & Fishermen

Mukilteo Ferry & Fishermen - Photo Copyright Tim S Kane 2009

Seattle – What’s Happening “today”?

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newsseattleTwitter is fast becoming the best source of “What’s Happening?” in any given area, on any given day. If you are one of those people who thinks it is “silly” to record “What are you doing?”, think about it from the perspective that you might be doing what someone else would consider doing, if they knew it was happening.

You become the “news” source for local events, when you report your whereabouts at a local event. You become the restaurant critic when you tweet from a local restaurant about the food and service.

Like it or not, the collective “we” values real information from people on the street, having the experience and noting that experience in “real time”.

So what IS happening in Seattle? Twitter has a “search box” into which I will now put the word “Seattle” and this is what we learn:

@MyWashingtonSt tells us “The Bite of Seattle” Open til 9pm tonight!! Premier Food Fest FREE ADMISSION www.biteofseattle.com

Now that we know that there is an event today called The Bite of Seattle and that it is open until 9 p.m., we might want to know if it is “worth” going to? What do people who are actually there have to say about their experience?

To dig deeper into real time info on the event, change the words on the search box to the event title. In this case I change “Seattle” to “Bite of Seattle” and find:

@Mr10K: We will be reporting to you live from the bite of seattle today people. The Neema taste tests will show no mercy on any booths today!

Maybe you and Mr10K don’t have the same tastes in food, but at least you know you can get a “merciless” review of the booth offerings by him throughout the day, so you can try to hit the “best” booths when you head out to “Bite of Seattle” later today before 9 p.m.

“Using Twitter” is not simply about telling people what you are doing at any given moment. It’s a huge and growing way for people to get the news THEY want at any given moment in time, and pretty much just about any where.

Using Twitter is not all about “I have an appointment at 2 to show a house in Bellevue” from @ARDELLd 🙂 It’s a way for people to use search terms to help them get a glimpse at what other people are doing, that they themselves might like to join.

Twitter has become my news source. Twitter reported that Michael Jackson passed, before CNN could “confirm” that. Twitter told me that Walter Cronkite passed away. Twitter told me that I could catch a radio show with Jeff Turner @respres, 5 minutes before it aired so I could turn on the audio while continuing to work.

Twitter can make you more productive and keep you on top of everything that is happening. You can control how much or how little “noise” you want, by limiting the people and news sources that you choose to follow, or by using a “sort” application like TweetDeck (just one of many).

The search box opens a door to over 2,700,000 people talking about…and you choose which topics are of interest to you, when you pick a search term.

If you have never, ever been to Twitter and have decided you are not going to…it may be time for you to think about why…and what that says about you vs. Twitter.

Snohomish Kla Ha Ya Days festival this weekend

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If you like any of the following then make time to visit Historic Snohomish this weekend during the Kla Ha Ya Days Festival:

  • Music
  • Friends, people watching
  • 80 degree weather
  • Parades
  • Historic downtown shops and eateries
  • Hot-Rod cars (Sunday event)
  • Food (Salmon, Fish n Chips, Burgers, Ice Cream, Pizza, Thai food etc…)
  • Aircraft
  • Hot-Air balloons
  • Skydivers
  • absolutely gorgeous Snohomish Valley
Snohmish Car Show

Car Show - Photo by Brian Thompson Photography

Harvey Airfield

Harvey Airfield

Tonight (Friday) offers a treat for family night at Harvey Airfield featuring “Balloon Glow-Fire in the Sky” event with live Bands and a fireworks show at 10pm.   So, pull out the Harley Davidson from the garage and bike on over to Snohomish for the Kla Ha Ya Days  (schedule) festival going on full throttle this weekend.  It’s a great community and one that residents and future residents are sure to enjoy.

Saturday is the grand parade sponsored by my friend and fellow Seattle Pacific University Alum, Brad McDaniel of Snohomish’ McDaniel’s Do-It-Center.

Snohomish Valley Summer 09'

Snohomish Valley Summer 09' - Courtesy Snohomish-Today.com

Tonight watch the Fire in the Sky Hot Air-Balloon event at Harvey Airfield and at 10pm you will be dazzled by a fireworks show.

Snohomish Skydivers - Courtesy Snohomish-Today.com

Snohomish Skydivers July '09 - Courtesy Snohomish-Today.com