My friend takes job in Iraq

It’s been tough for agents, a long hard winter, particularly for agents who have not had their license for five years or more. Tough for most everyone, but particularly for newer agents.

I hadn’t heard from my friend, Michael Creel, “heard” in the sense that I had not seen him write a blog post for quite some time. I emailed him never expecting to hear that he has taken a job in Irag for a year or longer.

Quoting from his post, “From-Bellevue-to-Baghdad”, …I’ve been offered, and accepted a civilian contract in the Green Zone to help supply the troops with safe bacteria- free, potable water….I really can’t explain why I feel compelled to go, only that I do, and I am. I’ll be gone for at least 12 months, at which time I will decide if I wish to renew the contract for an additional 12 months. My wife will spend the year in her home in China, and we will vacation together overseas.”

I haven’t known Michael long, only for the six months I was the Broker over at Brio Realty, but we became close. His most admirable trait being the way he glowed when he spoke of his wife. On other topics I often had to remind him to “lighten up” , but when it came to conversations that mentioned his wife, he always beamed from ear to ear.

I admire a man who speaks highly of his wife and isn’t afraid to show his feelings for her.

I worry about Michael being separated from his wife for so long, since I know she is the joy of his life, a life with not enough joy.

It may be hard for many to conjure up any worry for real estate agents in this tough market, but agents are my friends and Michael has made a hard decision on many levels. I wasn’t able to help him much in real estate during this down cycle, though I was able to help several others. The only impact I had was to encourage him to blog, and he clearly was “my best blogger” over at Brio.

It’s a long way from Bellevue to Baghdad. I wish you a good and safe journey, my friend, and hope to see you again. Velocità di Dio.

I went to a mortgage whore, he said my life's a bore

Dear Jillayne,

I have two residential loans that have been referred to me, one from a mortgage broker in Colorado and another from a credit union. Both LOs have already taken the loan application, gathered all the supporting documents, and sent the loans through the lender’s automated underwriting system. The credit union is unable to make the loan because the dollar amount is too large for their institution. The mortgage broker in Colorado is not licensed to do business in WA State. Both of these LOs would like their client taken care of but because of the amount of work they’ve done already, they would like to get paid on these files. Of course I would disclose all fees to the consumer, but is this even possible to do?

John.

Dear John,

Because of the subprime and now prime mortgage market meltdown, we are going to see some incredible changes taking place in state and federal law during the next decade. One of the main problems with the mortgage lending laws today is that mortgage brokers can only earn a fee if a loan is made. This sets up an external motivator for an LO to make lots of loans, whether or not the consumer needs a loan. This should and will change. Someday you will be able to earn a fee for, let’s say, giving a borrower valuable financial advice relating to their mortgage loan, similar to how you might hire a CPA to advise you on matters within their scope of knowledge.

Let’s first take the example of if YOU were in the position of referring a loan to another broker. Let’s say you didn’t have FHA approval, your cousin Vinnie over at XYZ brokerage did, and you wanted to earn a fee of X for sending the loan to Vinnie. This is not allowable under many state laws governing mortgage lending (and for WA state, see the MBPA.) You can only earn a fee when a loan is made and the loan originator as presented to the lender on this transaction was Vinnie. If Vinnie hands you some cash outside of escrow, this is called an “unearned fee.

Sunday Night Stats + 1st Quarter YOY

Surprise on the breakdown of First Quarter YOY. While condo volume is down 41% compared to 1Q-2007, condo prices are holding steady and may even be going up. Single family homes are down 33% as to volume, but as Case Schiller reported and I have tonight verified, single family home prices are back to August 06 levels and tipping downward.

Condo sales for the 1st quarter were only 1,210 compared to 2,042 in the first quarter of 07, but price per square foot is at $297 compared to $295 in 2007 and $242 in 2006. Plus the properties in escrow are showing $306 per square foot. While that may decrease when we see the sold vs. asking prices, so far sold prices have been pretty close to asking, so the likelihood is that those in escrow will close higher than the $297 price per square foot of 1Q-07.

So for condos, volume way down but prices up…again.

Single Family homes sales for the 1st Quarter are showing at 3,570 vs. 5,304 in 1Q-2007. Prices are down to $219 per square foot (exactly where they were 8/06) down from $222 in 1Q-2007 and up from 201 in 1Q-2006. Properties in escrow are at $214 per square foot as to asking prices. So we will likely see a continued downward trend as to price in single family homes in the next few weeks of closings.

In 1Q-2008, 33 out of 100 homes sold at 98.8% of asking price within 30 days. 20% were on market for over 120 days.
In 1Q-2007, 43 out of 100 homes sold at 100.48% of asking price within 30 days. 15% were on market for over 120 days
In 1Q-2006, 54 out of 100 homes sold at 101% of asking price within 30 days. Only 8% were on market for over 120 days.

Now for tonight’s stats:

I’m switiching out to median price per square foot (MPPSF) vs. median price. I’m also showing DOM as they look like they are coming down, so we want to track that.

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 10,426- UP 246 -DOM 53 – MPPSF Under $2M – $230 (Over $2M MPPSF $546)

In Escrow – 2,708 – UP 134 – DOM 47 – MPPSF $214

Closed YTD – 4,004- UP 285 – DOM 53 – MPPSF $219

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,684 – UP 94 – DOM 54 – MPPSF $320

In Escrow – 876 – UP 30 – DOM 37 – MPPSF $306

Closed YTD – 1,305 – UP 71 – DOM 51 – MPPSF $295

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

How to evaluate "the comps" and price per square foot

tri levelWith more and more home buyers and sellers participating in the home buying & selling process to a greater degree than ever before, we can’t write enough posts that provide the basic infomation and skills that help them evaluate home prices. The other day I talked about the popularity and pricing of homes in differering age segments.

Today I’m going to talk about “the comps” and median price per square foot of homes of differing styles. For this purpose I’m going to use Bellevue, Kirkland and Redmond vs. Seattle or all of King County. We will be looking at the differences in price per square foot for ramblers, split-entry homes and ramblers with basements, tri-levels and two story homes both with and without basements. I’m using all sales from 1/01/07 to date, to insure enough volume of sales in each category, to have a relevant median price per square foot. I eliminated lots in excess of 13,000 sf so the “extra” land doesn’t skew the data.

The photo above is a tri-level. When you’ve been in the business for many years, you can pretty much know the floor plan of a house without ever needing to go inside. When a house looks like one story from one side and two story from the other, viewing it from left to right while standing only in front of it, that is a tri-level. You will enter on the main level which has the living room, dining room and kitchen. After you are inside the main floor (and not when you immediately enter the front door) you will go up 4 or 5 steps to the bedrooms or down 4 or five steps to the family room that exits to the yard, usually via sliding glass doors. The garage entrance is on the other side of the family room and no portion of the tri-level is underground. That is your basic tri-level and you can tell that without having to go inside.

bi levelThe home pictured to the left is a split-entry home. For those reading this from outside of the Seattle Area, you may call a “split-entry” a 2-level, a bi-level, a raised rambler or a raised rancher. All are referencing the same style of home called different things in different areas. Basically it is a rambler with a basement, most often but not always a daylight basement. The underground side of the basement is raised high enough for there to be windows.

The front steps take you up to the front door that looks like it is centered in the middle of the structure. Once you walk in the front door you have to go immediately up or down from the foyer to access any of the rooms. It is a rambler with a basement that is not fully underground at any point. A rambler with a daylight basement is basically the same home, but the street side of the basement is fully underground, so you enter at street level onto the main floor.

Now let’s do some stats on the differing home styles. PPSF = Price Per Square Foot.

Rambler/One Story Home – median price $491,500 – median sf 1,470 – median PPSF $334 DOM 26

Rambler w. basement – median price $699,000 – median sf 2,760 – median PPSF – $253 DOM 30

Some people think that the smaller square footage is creating the higher price per square foot. What is really happening is that the main level is valuing at $334 per square foot (same as the rambler) and the basement level is valuing at $172.50 per square foot. For instance the 2,760 sf divided by two, equals 1,380 on the main level times $334 equals $460,920 for the main floor “rambler portion”. The difference, $699,000 minus $460,920 = $238,080 for the basement divided by 1,380 sf equals $172.50 PPSF for the basement. That averages $253 PPSF for the whole house as to finished square foot and does not include the garage or unfinished/not heated basement area. It’s a bit simplified, but hopefully you get the gist of that. Same is true for the split entry.

Split-entry home – median price $510,000 – median sf 2,150 – median PPSF $237 DOM 30

Again, the main level of 1,075 sf of the split-entry is valuing the same as the rambler at $334 or $359,050. $510,000 minus $359,950 = $150,050 divided by 1,075 basement sf = $139.58 for the basement sf and that averages to $237 PPSF for the whole house. In reality above ground square footage values higher than underground square footage, so if the basement is all underground on either the rambler or split entry, the basement square footage would value for less than a “daylight” basement and the fully above ground portion would value for more than the partially above ground portion. So don’t pay the same for a fully underground basement as you would a daylight basement.

Two Story Home – median price $750,000 – median sf 2,760 – median PPSF $271 – DOM 39

Two Story Home w/basement – median price $1,097,000 – median sf 3,920, median PPSF $280 – DOM 59

The two story home with a basement does not get “diluted” in value by the basement because it is basically the top choice of available homes, there are fewer of them and almost half of them have a lake view. The builders will put the most house, 2 story plus a basement, on the priciest lots with views. So there are a lot of factors that create what looks like full value for the basement on these 2 story homes, when in reality it is an external “plus feature” doing that. Only 4.7% of splits and 1 story ramblers have a lake view, 11.4% of 2 story homes without a basement have a lake view and 42.8% of 2 story homes with a basement have a lake view. 31.8% of the big ramblers with basements have a lake view, so adjust for that as well.

The longer days on market has more to do with higher total price of home, than home style.

The tri-level pictured at the top is only valued at $268 per square foot, even though all of the living square footage is above ground. There are fewer of them, but that does not make them more desirable and a higher PPSF, because when you chop up 2,000 sf into three levels, no level seems large enough. When you put the family room on the main floor next to the kitchen it values higher on the main level, than when you put it down on the basement level. If you can see into the family room on the lower level from the kitchen, it values higher than if you can’t.

It’s really common sense when you think about it that way. With more and more people using price per square foot as an indicator of value, I hope this post gives you a little more info to help you to refine your DIY valuation process.

Have a great day!

Salvaging a dead transaction: when a client refuses to sign.

Never underestimate the power of a cup of coffee

A few months ago I met with a client at their home in the Woodinville area. After introducing ourselves to each other we sat down at the kitchen table and started going over paperwork and loan documents. The gentleman slowly started to go over the loan documents in a methodical manner which is not unusual. Prior to each signing appoinment one of the very first things I mention to our client is that I’m not in a rush and they can take all the time they need. I indicate that there are a few important documents they need to pay particular attention to while the other bulk of the loan package is a series of disclosures, much of which is boilerplate and typical of most lender loan packages.

Probably 15 minutes into the signing it was evident that the demeanor of the client was changing. Not only was the scrutiny of the documents going slowly but question after question started to flow, one after the other. The client decided to stop the appointment and make a phone call to his loan officer. After a brief discussion, the client hung up the phone and informed me that the transaction would be on hold.

Naturally, your mind starts to spin a bit and I sensed that the gentleman wanted to digest the information more carefully, perhaps without the pressure of anyone being present. I informed the client that it was not a problem and I would be in touch to schedule another time to mutually get together and sign the documents.

coffee cup

We’ve been in each other’s company for about an hour by this time and I told him to “not worry about the transaction, at least I met another new friend!” At this point the gentleman offered me a cup of coffee. Hmm. That sounded really good and was my invitation to build trust. We sat down at the table over the coffee. I’ve never had a better brewed latte—this guy really knew what he was doing. Silky smooth and wonderful. We started to discuss absolutely everything: his house, our families, kids, the real estate market, interest rates, etc….

The gentleman was from Turkey and it was another lesson in assisting clients from other cultures and the way in which you build trust. The rest is history. Three and a half hours later I had a happy client, happy customers (loan officer/agent), and signed documents in my hand ready for a funding package to be completed and overnighted to the lender.

Need cash flow? Don't be afraid of unpopular sales and…

mobile home
……..selling uncoventional listings otherwise known in the real estate world as “Mobile Homes.”

You think to yourself…pshttt. Yeah, you laugh. You say, “whatever. That’s not going to make me a listing star or a top producer!”

Guess again. You may find this hard to believe, but one of the top two producing agents (in both sales and commissions paid out of our escrow office, I believe two years running) who uses our office to close mobile homes, comes in to collect commission checks darn near every week. Sometimes more than once a week. Sometimes, three a week. This unassuming agent is in our office so often we nearly gave ’em a desk and phone. (ok, not quite).

It is not unusual for the agent to stop in with two transactions on Wednesday and say, “let’s close these by Friday.” Sounds good to us.

Don’t discount this lucrative market. The sales are closed as fast as the parties can make it to our office to sign their paperwork. Two thousand dollars here, three thousand dollars there…it all adds up to well into the six figures in earned commissions. For crying out loud, wouldn’t you like a transaction that can close just about as fast as popcorn pops in the Microwave!

Older sells faster and for more

It may surprise you to know that older and even oldest sells faster, and for more money on a price per square foot basis. In the last six months the median days on market for homes sold in King County was 50 days and the median price per square foot was $219. But you may be surprised that older sells faster and for more money per square foot.

Built prior to 1930 sold with median days on market of 33 and a price per square foot of $251

Built from 1931 to 1950 sold with median days on market of 40 days and a price per square foot of $244

Built from 1951 to 1969 sold with median days on market of 49 days and a price per square foot of $228

Built from 1970 to 1989 sold with median days on market of 56 and a price per square foot of $212

Built from 1990 to 2005 sold with median days on market of 63 and a price per square foot of 210

Built from 2006 to present sold with median days on market of 52 days and a price per square foot of $207

Surprised? Don’t be. It’s the old “Location, Location, Location!”

Every time someone built a house, going back to Seattle’s First Hill, by and large they chose the very best location to build on. Chances are if you were to go out right now and find the absolute best place to build a house, there will already be one built there.

Often people will assume newer is better and new is best. Not so. Most often the place where a builder can put up more than one house and as many as 50, the location is inferior…and consequently available.

If you ever doubted the mantra “Location, Location, Location!” then look at the proof. Older sells faster and for more money on a price per square foot basis because people choose location over house…almost always, and rightly so. And most often best location equals oldest house.

Senator Dorgan's Office Now Collecting Deceptive Mortgage Advertising

My phone rang early in the morning on Friday. Nobody calls me early in the morning unless they’re on the east coast. I glanced at the phone: Area code 202. Who do I know in Washington D.C.? Turns out it was Allen Huffman who works for Senator Dorgan. Apparently the senator is working on federal mortgage reform legislation, needs examples of deceptive mortgage advertising, and Allen found me here on RCG. This is what I sent Allen on Friday:

Here is a link to the story on Linden Home Loans. Inside this article there’s a link to the deceptive radio ad and television ad.

Here is a story about deceptive banner ads, from lead generation company Lowermybills.com

This website has pages filled with deceptive lmb.com banner ads for you.

The payment advertised on the banner ad in this example, once you clicked all the way through, was for a pay-option, interest only, negative amortization ARM loan. For a fully amortized 30 year fixed loan, the payment would be around $3,000. The web viewer would not see all the fine print unless they had already applied for the loan and scrolled all the way down to the bottom of the fourth or fifth screen. Very deceptive. I believe LMB is still running ads. Now the banners are advertising a drop in the “federal funds rate.”

dancing people banner ad lowermybills

Many, many banks, consumer finance companies, and mortgage brokers purchase leads from lowermybills.com. Lowermybills.com doesn’t make loans. Instead the company sells consumer information over and over again.

I have always considered that it was not in the industry’s best interest to purchase leads based on deceptive advertising. All this does is circumvent an honest company’s own attempts to advertise in a fair manner, the way the federal truth in lending laws were designed. If I were to come up with any new ideas for industry reform, I would want the industry to be held accountable for the advertising used to gather the leads purchased.

So for example, take a look at the mortgage spam in your spam bin. Have you ever clicked on those links? They will take you to a website that appears to be for a mortgage lender. But in reality this is a lead generation website. A homeowner’s private financial data is then sold to multiple loan originators who contact the homebuyer or refinancing homeowner over and over again. If the homeowner does not respond, then the lead is sold again and again. I am asking the question: Shouldn’t mortgage banks and brokers be held accountable if the LEADS they purchased were gathered using deceptive advertising? Lead generation companies should be held to the same standards within the federal Truth-in-Lending Act that banks and brokers must abide by.

Here is a very good example of a deceptive website. This person, Jennifer Hershey doesn’t exist. There is no place on this website to contact the owner of the site, we have no idea if this person is licensed to originate mortgage loans in any state, and there’s no company licensing information on here at all. Instead, this appears to be a “front” for a lead generation website.

I also have a growing collection of junk mortgage faxes advertising note rates from 1% all the way up to 5% for a “fixed” mortgage, showing monthly payment information that looks like an obvious pay option, negative AM, interest only ARM. No APR, no company information, no phone number for how to contact the company. The only phone number on the fax is a 1800 number answered by a telemarking person taking loan applications. This person is not a licensed loan originator How do I know? I asked her. She said she works for 20 different mortgage brokers.

People, now it’s your chance. Allen at Senator Dorgan’s office says to email or fax your deceptive mortgage spam, letters, websites, banner ads, and if you have links to deceptive radio and TV ads, he’ll take those, too. Today I received his permission to publish his contact info.

SEND DECEPTIVE MORTGAGE ADVERTISING HERE:

allen_huffman@dorgan.senate.gov
Fax: 202-224-1193

Sunday Night Stats – King County

Of course the 1st quarter stats are so very important, and I would very much like to get to the business of reporting these statistics on a County basis as well as for individual areas. But I don’t want to overstate the negative by reporting them in detail before all, or at least most, of the sales have been recorded. 4 business days does not appear to be enough time since as of tonight, # of sales for the quarter are down 40%. Let’s give that another week before comparing the 1st quarter YOY.

Suffice it to say volume continues to be down significantly compared with last year. Median sold price of homes is very close to the asking price of those homes at time of sale and sold prices appear to be down only 2% for Residential and not at all for condos compared with the 1st quarter of 2007. Given the significant decrease in volume, prices holding fairly steady continues to surprise us.

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 10,180- UP 116 -Median Price approx. $530,000

In Escrow – 2,574 – DOWN 90 – median price $449,950 – UP $2,225

Closed YTD – 3,719- UP 446 – median price $435,000 – no change

The median asking price of Residential Propertes that have sold is $440,000, so they are selling at 99% of asking price.

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,590 – UP 72 – median price $324,950 – no change

In Escrow – 846 – DOWN 17 – median price $299,995 – UP 95 (asking prices)

Closed YTD – 1,234 – UP 137 – median price $289,950 – UP $4,950

The median asking price of the condos that have sold is $293,675 so they are selling at 98.7% of asking price.

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)