Have home prices “recovered” in Seattle?

The market “recovered” in early 2009, back when I called the “bottom”. Recovery means it returns to a predictable and normal cycle, and stays there for the forseeable future. We are now two and a half years from that “bottom call”, and if I had to describe the Single Family Home market as I did back in February of 2009…there would be little change from what I said at that time.

This is what I said, according to Aubrey Cohen, who is quoting me in the Seattle PI Front Page News Story “Agent Predicts Housing Slumps Demise“.

“…once a house is priced at least 20 percent below what it would have been expected to fetch at the market’s peak in the summer of 2007, it sells” (“bottom” of non-distressed property).

“She said distressed sales were going for about 37 percent below peak, and areas with a large share of distressed sales would see those dragging down prices across the board.” (bottom is 37% plus a continued drag down in areas where distressed sales are a high % of overall sales)

“In her call, DellaLoggia said she’s focusing on the North Seattle and East Side areas where she works.

Again, I’m quoting Aubrey Cohen…who is quoting me back in February of 2009.

If we are still running in those ranges…then the market actually “recovered” in February of 2009, which by and large it DID, depending on your definition of a market recovery.

Recovery does not mean it will never go higher or lower ever again. It means it has stopped the indiscriminate and unpredictable SLIDE, and returned to…a market that moves based on it’s normal basis up and down.

Let’s take a look at 2011 Home Sales Year to Date (Jan 1, 2011 to about a week ago when I ran these numbers and created the charts and graphs.)

2011 home prices

The last column, described as NW King County runs North of the I-90 Bridge to the end of King County going North and West of Lake Sammamish to the end of King County to the West. I would probably include Issaquah and Sammamish and Mercer Island in there as to markets performing similarly, but to define it in a solid block I drew the map search as defined above.

Are we still “at bottom” of if it is priced “20% below peak” for a non distressed, single family detached home? Yes…2011 prices are running at 16% under peak for NW King.

Are we still “at bottom” of 37% under peak for Distressed Property Sales, Short Sales (SS) and Bank Owned Sales (REO)? Yes…for Short Sales running at 33% under peak. NO for Bank Owned Property Sales running at 47% under Peak. Perhaps Bank Owned property has been damaged more so than homes people still live in. That could easily account for the difference.. As can the true “as is” nature of that particular beast. Those that must be sold ALL CASH as example…can’t be financed due to condition, will run under the price expected if the home could be financed without a “rehab loan”.

MOST IMPORTANTLY if you are a home buyer or seller…you have to note the % of distressed property that impacts YOU.

IF you live in a neighborhood that was built and sold out at PEAK…then your entire neighborhood will be dragged down by all of the short sales and foreclosures around you. IF you live in a neighborhood with 3 healthy sales and one short sale…the impact will be less…much less…perhaps none at all.

As with all of my posts, I try to give you a tool you can use. Take the “appraiser’s area” around your home. Usually that is in increments geographically based on data obtained. IF there are 5 sales within 6 months with 1/4 mile of your home (more true for newer homes built close together), then the appraiser may not leave your neighborhood to find more “comps”. As long is there is at least one within 60 days. Draw the circle and the small circles for SS and REO. Do one chart for 1/4 mile, one for 1/2 mile and one for one full mile. Even if they find 5 sold properties in 6 months within 1/4 more, the may reach out a full mile to drag in some short sales and REO sales for their own protection.

If ALL of the sales are in the SS box on your chart…and you think you are going to price at 20% under peak because YOU are not a Short Sale…no. Not gonna happen.

If MOST of the sales are Short Sale and REO in your chart…and you think you are going to price at 20% under peak…no…not gonna happen.

IF there are TEN sales and ONE is a short sale or REO…and IT sold for 30% to 40% under peak…no, you don’t have to price your home as low as that sale, as long as the other 9 homes sold without impact. You can discard the distressed property and use the other comps…but that doesn’t mean the buyer’s appraiser won’t drag that back in to his appraisal…because he is protecting the lender…not you or the buyer of your home.

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(required disclosure: Statistics in this post and in the chart in this post are hand calculated by ARDELL and are not copied from data compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)


The Question Your Real Estate Agent Doesn’t Want You to Ask

What is the question you need to ask your Real Estate Agent…that no one ever asks?Buyer Clients-1

Will you help another of your buyer clients buy a home…

that is perfect for me and my family?

MORE IMPORTANTLY…will you even take on a new client…

who has the same ojective as mine?

People often ask me if I am “taking on new clients” and the answer is yes…as long as you do not have the same objective as one of my existing clients. I have been wanting to write a post on this issue ever since an Agent stood up in a class I was teaching here in Seattle and said “I showed the house to NINE of my “Buyer Clients”…

What??? NINE of your Buyer Clients??? How the heck can you take on NINE clients…who all want the same thing, in the same place at the same price???

There’s a lot of talk about Agent Commissions being less, when the truth of the matter is that what we should be striving for is getting back to the reason WHY “we make the big bucks”. It is because we can only devote ourselves to the objective of a few clients at the same time, in order to eradicate any potential conflict of interest or dilution of our efforts on the client’s behalf.

I have a client who wants a condo in Downtown Kirkland for about $350,000…possibly a townhome in Redmond for the same price…but more likely a condo in Downtown Kirkland.

I have a client who wants to buy a condo 2nd residence/investment condo for about $125,000 in Kirkland, Redmond or Bellevue.

I have a client who wants to buy a primary residence for about $600,000 in the prime areas of Kirkland near Downtown.

I have a client who wants to buy a primary single family residence for $400,000 give or take (depending on condition of property) in Redmond…possibly Kirkland.

I have a client who wants to buy a primary residence in Seattle between the U-District and Green Lake for $500,000 give or take.

So the answer to “Am I taking on any new clients” is yes…as long as you don’t want the same thing as one of my existing clients as listed above.

When I speak with other agents…they wouldn’t dream of turning a client away…EVER. Which is why some of the lower cost “agent services” do not list “assistance with property selection” as one of their offered Buyer Agent services.

Most all websites say “CALL ME IF YOU WANT TO SEE THIS PROPERTY” without regard to whether NINE people will all call to see

the SAME property.

It’s really as simple as this. IF your agent will show the SAME house to more than one of their clients OR if they will even “take on” a 2nd client who has the same objective as you do, then they are a SALESMAN and not a true representative of your goals and best interests.

Ask the question. If you find anyone else who says “NO, I will not take on a new client who also wants the same kind of property, in the same place, at the same price as you do”…let me know.

It will do my heart good.


Why there is no “LATE” in Real Estate

no crying in baseballWe all remember Tom Hanks in “A League of Their Own” and that great line “There’s no CRYING in Baseball!” That doesn’t mean it NEVER happens, that means it is not SUPPOSED to happen.

When it DOES happen it is usually a Joe Biden sized BFD!

Same goes for a Late Closing in Residential Real Estate transactions…with some exceptions. In a normal Residential Real Estate Contract, you put down Earnest Money WHICH YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO LOSE under certain conditions. People often don’t know this OR they forget this.

Most often agents probably don’t say “Oh, by the way you may lose that $10,000” while the buyer is writing the check. They just “assume” the buyer knows what Earnest Money is. Telling people they may lose $10,000 is just not something most agents like to say when someone is making an offer on a house. BUT if the day the buyer may lose it, is the first time they’ve heard of that possibility, the *chocolate* is going to hit the fan…and often does!

Earnest Money is the amount you ARE WILLING to lose if…

If you COULD NOT LOSE YOUR EARNEST MONEY we would not require Earnest Money as a “BINDER” in most Residential Real Estate Transactions. Still the minute the “you might lose your Earnest Money if…” situation comes up, people act like no one should ever utter those words. Odd…but true.

Buyers write those big, fat Earnest Money Checks without much thought to LOSING that money…until faced with the words “Your Earnest Money is NOW in Jeopardy”. Late closings enter that realm of possibility. Often that can turn into a “Let’s SHOOT the Messenger” knee-jerk reaction. But the reality is…someone, sometimes, has to be the bearer of that bad news.

So why IS the main rule  “No LATE in Real Estate

Why Agents Are Better than Lawyers

Craig’s written a few posts about Why Lawyers are better than Real Estate Agents. Seriously?
Are you KIDDING me???
I usually don’t post before pictures of my listings, but this seller gave me permission to do so.

People don’t know what we do. because it is PERSONAL. What we do for our clients is never known until someone who thinks this business is EASY walks a mile in our shoes. THIS is what I do BEFORE I even START! The Listing won’t even be in the MLS until Wednesday.

I clearly EARN every penny I make, and not ONE of my clients have ever disputed that. I have never had a client who thought I “made too much” when representing them either in a purchase OR a sale in 21 Freaking YEARS!

Every day (and today on my most recent post) someone says agents do NOTHING.

Well I don’t call THIS nothing. It took day after day and many hours. Because I can’t “market” a home until I have a home “to market”. This is a $250,000 house and I am only charging 2% (because it is a 2X past client).

If you hired an agent who did NOTHING…
well, come on guys, whose fault is THAT?!?

BEFORE:

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AFTER – Not finished yet,

have another full day tomorrow.

NO…this is not a vacant home…This is what it looks like today before it is finished.

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Even staging the Linen Closet, the kitchen cabinets, the patio set out on the deck…you name it. Closets…anything a buyer will open and look inside.

And then some PISSANT will come along with a “Bad MLS Photo” post and complain that the light fixture is reflecting in the sliding glass door.

Don’t get me wrong…the seller is working his fingers to the bone too! This kind of transformation does not take ONLY one person. But I even personally, hand made the wall hanging in the dining room. I didn’t have anything “in stock” that was quite right and I wanted the largest 42″ X 42″ piece. I had this one:

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But I wanted a “mid-century modern” feel, so I went to the cloth store and covered it with this:

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And then I made a “Companion Piece” in cloth of the same colors and different design, and found the “starburst” mirror for over the fireplace that matched the circles in the cloth in the larger cloth covered.

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If you are an agent who runs in with your cell phone and takes a quick picture of the open toilet and toilet paper…THIS is what we DO or “cause to happen” and WHY we make “the big bucks”.

And oh…

BTW…

I didn’t see any LAWYERS in Joann Fabrics on 4th of July Weekend.

If you are one of my other clients over the last week or two who thought I looked a little tired…this is why. 🙂 A VERY rewarding business…and there is NO END to what “we” DO!

We do whatever it takes to have a successful client.

Something EVERY home buyer needs to know BEFORE they step on an Owner’s Property.

looking in houseBefore you look at even ONE house, from IN or even ON an owner’s property, you need to understand the basic framework put into place before the home was listed for sale.

A “For Sale” sign is not a “license to trespass” on someone else’s property.

You are basically walking into the middle of a commission structure AND instruction for your being able “to see it” structure, that is already in place. This arrangement was set BEFORE it was listed for sale by the owner of the property, and that owner’s agreement with “the mls system” and his agent, before the For Sale sign was put in front of the house.

It is something you must comply with, and so something you need to FULLY understand BEFORE you step on or in someone’s private property.

This is true when you walk into any home that is for sale AND listed via an mls system. You do not have permission to go on or in  an owner’s private property, except via the owner’s permission or via an agent who is a member of the mls system. That includes opening the owner’s gate and going in their yard and peeking in their windows. There is no entitlement to trespass on an owner’s property just because it is “for sale”. Some think if a property is vacant and there is a For Sale sign out front, that gives them the “right” to trespass on the property and peek in the windows. It does not.

Without permission from someone with the authority to give you that permission…that is called trespassing. Those with the authority to give you that permission to step ON or IN an owner’s property, do not do that “for free”. You should not be going in or on someone’s property without understanding that you are paying for that privelege by doing so, as the structure to pay someone to let you on or in is already in place via the seller so that you CAN see it. You can’t ask to be on the owner’s property and then try to DICTATE that the seller CAN’T pay the person who provided that access for you.

That is not a FREE “service” and the seller has already promised to pay someone to afford you the opportunity to be on and in his property.

Below is a comment I made on Craig’s post to assist him in knowing what he can and cannot “promise” to give away.

If and when a Buyer includes a portion of “Do It Yourself – DIY” into the scenario to “save money”, they must do so without the “use” of agents…be that the Seller’s Agent or a Buyer’s Agent. Doing some of it YOURSELF…must be YOURSELF and not yourself in the room with an agent whom you do not plan to use to represent you in a real estate transaction.

IF you plan to use an Alternative Business Model or Traditional Agent who will PAY you for the portion you choose to handle “by yourself”, you need to hire them in advance of seeing any home. You also need to be certain that the portion of “rebate” you are looking to get is for work that YOU did with no agent contact whatsoever, outside of the agent you hire to represent you.

Below is the reason WHY, and also my response to Craig who asked the question in the Rain City Guide post previous to this one. Below is my comment, in response to his quandary, in its entirety.

“Let’s assume for a minute that there is a 6% commission set by the seller to his purpose of selling his home, of which the original referring agent (the Listing Agent) and the “Procuring Cause

Mortgage Rates – A “volatile” market this month

Interest rates have been very volatile in June. This Poll Post on Seattle Bubble and the chart below are a good reminder that interest rates were at 5.5% in the Summer of 2009 and at or above 6% quite a few times in 2007 and 2008.

I thought you might find this chart of where interest rates have been for the last 40 years of interest. I borrowed it, with permission, from my friend Jay Thompson’s blog.

Personally I think they will run between 4.5% and 5.5%, but that’s a pretty big spread for people looking at homes to buy. A 1 point spread on a $417,000 conforming loan is $255 a month.

30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-historical-trend-chart

Of more concern to me is the variance in Real Estate Taxes from one property to the next.

When you get pre-approved, make sure you know what payment vs Purchase Price you are being approved for, and what assumptions are being made as to Taxes and Insurance.

I looked at the 30 homes sold in King County for $500,000 in the last 6 months, and the range of Annual Real Estate Tax went from $3,600 on the low side, to $8,000 on the high side. HUGE SPREAD. The Real Estate Taxes could easily turn your pre-approval into a Failed Pending Sale.

Be sure to know the underlying basis of your pre-approval, and make adjustments as needed from one house to the next. If it’s a super-deal, the taxes may be out of proportion to the sold price.

Redmond – Home Prices UP 12% YOY?

Median Home Prices get pulled on a monthly YOY basis by some interesting influences. About a week ago I did a post on King County non-distressed property being up 6% YOY.

In these stats, I am NOT excluding short sales and bank owned property from the mix.

Stands to reason if the better properties are selling quickly with multiple offers, that prices are NOT falling in the places where Supply and Demand factors are tipping toward more Demand than Supply. And if overall we are seeing 6% UP for non-distressed property, then some places must be UP OVER 6% for the net result to be 6%.

To find who went up more than the 6% average, I used Redmond 98052. It generally has a higher appreciation level than most of King County AND has little influence of short sales and bank owned property AND it has negligible influence of super inflated land values created by water view considerations. In other words, Redmond 98052 is “close in”, good “commute to” but no major snob factor or “value is in the land” considerations. In fact the lowest priced home sold in May of 2011 in Redmond 98052 was a great little house, and not a tear down at all.

The Median Home Price influence in Redmond 98052 is you need to separate NEW(er) homes from older homes, as the mix skews the median, as noted in the chart below.

graph (6)

The variance in the overall GREEN LINE median has more to do with the mix of new(er) construction vs homes built in 1999 or before. If you remove the undue influence of NEW HOME mix, you can see the true area appreciation and depreciation levels. Again, short sale and bank owned homes do not influence the median prices in Redmond. Even though they doubled from May 2010 to May 2011, they only went up from 3 of them to 6 of them.

Of MORE relevance is the New House/Old House mix than even overall volume changes.

Also, it’s my recollection that the big jump in 2005 may have had more to do with Microsoft hiring a lot of people all at once, vs the influence of the Credit Bubble.

That supports the flat pricing from May 2003 to May 2004 and the huge upswing in 2005. The upswing in the Green vs Blue line is about New Construction, mostly up on Education Hill,  which continued to pull the blue line away from the green line for years thereafter, until 2010 when more people bought older homes than new ones.  But NOT in 2005, as the older homes appreciated to the same degree as the new home premium. Same in 2006. Both older and new homes showed a price increase of 20% in 2005 and 25% in 2006. So the upswing was fairly uniform in those two years due to local hirings more than loose lending issues.

The swing in the peak on the Green Line in 2009 was because new(er) homes represented a full 63% of all homes sold that month. Likewise the dip in the Green Line in 2010 was the contrast of only 32% being new(er) homes in the sale mix. In 2011, new(er) homes were 28% of all sales, even less than 2010. So of no influence on the upswing reported.

Since homes built before 1999 did not change YOY as to type and size over the period from 2003 to 2011, the change in price is less influenced by things other than Supply and Demand.

I think the 12% increase is a bit insane and likely not sustainable, and may be a FLUKE of May 2011. BUT it does support my previous post that 6% UP for King County matches the story that decent homes in good places are hard to come by AND on the upswing price-wise.

Common sense tells us that the media reports that Supply is higher than Demand, creating bidding wars, BUT “prices are down”, makes no sense whatsoever. Much more credible that where these multiple offer situations are actually happening, prices are indeed up, and to a large degree.

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Required Disclosure: Stats in the graph and post are not published, verified or compiled by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.




Why are so many Pending Sales failing?

There is a rumor that they are all failing because the buyer cannot finance the purchase. The reality is that is RARELY the actual reason, but sellers and seller’s agents DO like to blame the buyer’s ability to finance, even when that is not the case. Always better for it to be “the other guy’s fault” when asked:

“Why did the sale fail?”

The reality is it may have been the way the OFFER was structured, that caused it to fail.

Some offers are doomed to fail from the getgo.

Relying entirely on the Home Inspection, without adequately addressing the likely outcome in advance at time of offer, often causes a sale to fail. Some like to think “writing an offer” is only about “filling in the blanks”. HOW you fill in those blanks requires some skills of prediction and anticipation of outcome.

It’s important to make your offer with a rough expectation as to major repairs needed, as rarely can a home inspection resolve items costing in excess of 1% to 2% of the value of the home.

IF you have already taken the max credit toward your closings costs in your offer…

the Home Inspection negotiation becomes near impossible.

The Roof is often the “deal breaker” in many home inspection negotiations, because it has a known life expectancy and is one of the most expensive “fixes” that might be needed at time of sale.

Notice I did not say “one of the most expensive fixes that might be needed” 
AS A RESULT OF THE HOME INSPECTION.

A “good” offer anticipates outcome. RARELY is the fact that the home needs a new roof something that can’t be anticipated at time of offer. Whether or not you allow for a new roof to be part of the asking price, depends on a few things.

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It’s pretty darned obvious that the house in the photo above needs a new roof. You shouldn’t need a Home Inspector to tell you that.

BEFORE making an offer on this house, you need to anticipate the cost of a new roof,

so you can prepare your offer with a known and reasonable outcome in mind.

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As you can see from the Zoomed In photo above, the cost of the new roof needs to include some pretty hefty repairs. The support for the roof is splitting and the roof is sagging.

Just sticking on some new shingles is NOT the only remedy for this roof.

You can guesstimate the cost of the shingle job by knowing the largest floor footprint from the County Records. It may be a 2,500 sf house in the mls. But the main floor footprint usually determines the outer corners of the roof. Is it 980 or 1,200 or 1,750? Once you have the main floor footprint (unless you can see that there is a larger 2nd floor foot print, in which case you would use that) you can show these two photos along with the sf coverage area to most any roofer and get a rough bid. You can email that info to three roofers and ask for a “ballpark” cost. The roofer needs to see the “the pitch” of the roof to determine cost. A higher pitch will need more shingles. Almost NO pitch may mean a shingle roof replacement is not the recommended “fix”.

Before addressing how the offer may be structured,

let’s look at a 2nd example that might have the same cost,

but a completely different remedy and offer process.

Photo_E40BFBFC-DFBD-A848-339B-A4E3022FC818

Unless you have the hope of turning your home into A Redroof Inn

a buyer of the home above MAY want to put on a shingle roof,

even though the roof may NEVER need to be replaced.

That roof will probably last longer than the house!

BUT…is that a positive?

Given where this house sits, on a quaint tree-lined street In-City where NO other roofs look like this, it’s possible that this “upgrade” may be seen as a “sore-thumb” and a negative…vs a positive.

For House #1 above, let’s say the roof will cost $20,000 to repair and replace. That’s a bit on the high side, but we have to go with the high estimate because of the deferred maintenance issues and things we can’t see, but can reasonably predict with regard to repairs needed beyond the actual roof shingles.

Now let’s talk about SALE FAIL due to BAD OFFER STRATEGY.

IF the buyer has an extra $20,000 to put on a new roof after purchase, AND deducts that amount from the offer price with the intention of putting on a new roof after purchase, the sale can “Fail Due To Financing”. The buyer MAY in fact be willing to buy the house for $20,000 less, and put a 20% downpayment still having the $20,000 needed for the repairs. BUT how likely is it that the Buyer’s LENDER will lend 80% of the cost to purchase after seeing that roof?

So…back to “Sale Failed Due To Buyer Financing Problems”. Was the cause really the fact that the buyer’s lending failed? Or the roof failed to meet the lender’s standard? Was it the buyer…or the house?

The sale failed because the agents failed to anticipate the lender’s response. There are many ways to resolve this type of issue in a real estate transaction. But ignoring the problem or thinking the seller is going to cough up $20,000 to fix the roof at time of inspection, is not realistic.

If the seller HAD $20,000, he likely would have fixed the roof before it got that bad.

The lender usually won’t let you escrow money for repairs to be done after closing. Sometimes, but not often. The best known remedy is to leave the cost of the roof fix in the price at time of offer and calling for a new roof to be put on prior to closing. Usually you can get a roofer to agree to do that and get paid at closing. BUT if it is a bank-owned property or a short sale, it gets a little tricker. Not impossible. But trickier.

In the 2nd example, the roof is perfectly fine. But you would be surprised how many buyers want to discount for what they don’t like or what they want to change, whether there is something wrong with it or not. Leaving THAT to time of inspection is a SALE FAIL. Sometimes the buyer wants the house because of many things and wants the seller to resolve “the roof issue”. Of course the seller paid a pretty penny for that roof and would be furious. So you have to build the offer around the buyer’s desires without involving the seller in the reasoning.

Buyers and sellers do not always agree on what IS a “defect” or what the seller should be expected to do about it.

Setting up a good “end strategy” at the time the offer is written,

is often the best remedy,

and one that will result in a closed transaction vs a Pending Sale failing.

Buying New Construction

One of the most notable minor difficulties when buying new construction, that is a piece of dirt at time of contract, is staying on top of when it will close.

Often the builder requires that the buyer close within X days of “CO”, Certificate of Occupancy. Basically 5 to 10 days from the house being completed is the norm.

BUT often it is hard to pinpoint that in advance without going over and checking where they are every few days. Can the appraiser and lender get their work done in a short time, if they are not notified that the house is almost done?

new construction

Working on one now where the lender scheduled the appraiser to go out yesterday. I just got back and the floorings aren’t done, the toilet’s not in on the main floor, can’t get up the steps as they are carpeting upstairs and have rolls of padding on the steps. The cement truck was ready to pour the driveway, but it looks like rain is coming any second. So not sure how they are going to call that in the next 30 minutes.

If you are a cash buyer…no problem. But when the buyer is financing the home, it’s a tight squeeze to meet the builder’s deadline when the house isn’t ready for the appraiser at the scheduled time.

A common rule of thumb is to start timing from “drywall” to close, as many of the local government inspections have to be done before the drywall covers the plumbing and electrical components.

The house doesn’t look ready for the appraiser and clearly not for the CO. The original completion estimate was “mid June” and we are still hoping to close by June 24.

Amazing how fast the project usually moves at the end. There were three different teams of workers there today.

The cement guys were there.
The “hard surfaces” team was there doing the wood floors with the tile work complete.
The carpet guys…a different team, were there.

When you see 8 to 10 guys all working on different things at the same time…you will be amazed at how much can be done in a day…if it doesn’t rain. That’s a big IF around here. Looking pretty just about to rain at the moment. But…that’s Seattle for you.

I still think the house will be done by the 24th…done in time for the appraisal to be done and the loan docs to be in escrow so as to close on the 24th? Still anybody’s guess. I’ll take a peek on Saturday to see if closing by the end of next week is looking possible. If the DID pour that driveway after I left today, even though it looks like rain, then there’s a strong chance it will close on time for the furniture deliveries. 🙂

New Construction Tip

Lessons from the Foxhole: A Nevadan Takes a Stab at Seattle’s Real Estate Future

joe salcedo[Editor’s Note: I get asked all the time if people from outside of Seattle can write for Rain City Guide and I always say no… I really like keeping RCG as a “Seattle” thing. However, recently Joe Salcedo of the Reno Real Estate Blog reached out to ask if he could publish a one-time post on RCG about his experiences with the Reno, Nevada market and the insights it might provide to the Seattle community… and I bit. I’ve published the article below. Enjoy! ~Dustin]

In August of 2005, our real estate market crashed.   It’s been five years and we’re slowly trying to get back on our feet.  I’m here to share some of the lessons I’ve learned along the way; the prodigal brother, if you will.

I started with a blank page.  One weekend after, baffled and fascinated and my curiosity violently piqued, here’s what I found out about your market:

  • If you waited until Seattle home prices went down in July 2007 (before you realized the market was having problems), you’re going to be at least one year behind.  Check for other signals. Home prices take too long to reveal itself profitably.

In Feb 2006, less than a year after the Reno real estate market crashed, I called an emergency meeting (coupled with other factors like plunging housing starts and declining home builder stocks) after being greeted by this chart:
Reno Home Resales
Yes, all markets are local but we all came from our mother’s womb.  Like a bearish stock market pulling down three out of four stocks with it – (both weak and strong companies) – majority of real estate markets fall with the general market.   Follow the home builder sector group in the stock market (Investor’s Business Daily tracks it every Monday). Check housing starts and building permitsto see a glimpse of the future:
Housing Starts Chart

  • For potential sellers: Consider cutting your losses short.  If you’re barely making it with house payments (perhaps using borrowed money just to make it) and hoping that the market would change soon, perhaps it’s time to think about making some tough decisions.  Distressed properties tend to pull home prices down further (see: notice of trustee sale graph below.)

If you’re comfortable with your mortgage payment (you bought a house on or before June 2005) and moving is too painful, it’s ok to stay; just know that based on present real estate conditions, it may take a few years before your house will appreciate from the price you bought it.

Percentage Home Price Change

Notice of Trustee Sale by Month Chart

(From SeattleBubble.com)

  • Short sales and foreclosures are like a mysterious disease that defies normal market cause and effect.  Inventory could be down, demand up, but price still down.  This has been happening in our market since 2007.

And like your resident queen, the author has made premature bottom calls by not taking into account the “black swan