Starter Home Styles in Seattle – Part 1

If you are planning to buy a home in Seattle for about $350,000, it may be of some help for you to know how to generally evaluate the floor plan, before entering the home. This should make choosing homes to see from the internet photos, and other information available on the internet, a little easier and more productive.

We’ll start with the basic 1-Story w/basement, often referred to as a “bungalow”.

1-story with basement


When you see a house for sale like this one in an Internet Listing, you first note the “Style” as “One Story with Basement”. This is a required data field, so it should not be missing from the listing detail. This cross gabled style was most common from around 1917 to 1922 or so. There are several other styles of one story with basement homes, but the below information should be fairly common to all.

I happen to be looking at one of these right now in Seattle. The mls Listing says 1,550 sf. 1,550 sf sounds like a decent sized house…until you go to the house and say “too small”. In fact, let’s look at the actual comments from a client who viewed it at an open house.

(Note: In accordance with mls rules, the picture of the home is a “reasonable facsimile” from somewhere else in the Country. The rest of the detail is the actual info of a home viewed by my clients in Seattle. Mls rules prohibit identifying the actual home that is currently for sale, in a blog post.)

Actual Client Comments:

Hi Ardell,
We went to the Open House and here is what we liked:

– Beautiful kitchen, good size
– Nice modern upgrades
– nice backyard and outside area
– Neighborhood feel and street was nice and quiet

Things we didn’t like:

– two small bedrooms on main floor, master in basement.

-The setup doesn’t seem conducive to a young family. The rooms were VERY small on the main floor. Living room was small, but if we had to deal with this we could…just not ideal. No dining area or even any room for a table

– House runs on oil. Not sure we like the idea of that

Now that the client has identified some likes and dislikes…we look at the dislikes and check that info against the home’s “main floor footprint”. Not all “1,550” sf homes are alike. You need to break that down to save yourself a lot of time and trouble in your home search process.

An oddity in the Seattle Area as to how we identify square footage in the mls, requires that your FIRST step be to go to the King County Parcel Viewer to identify the square footage of the house (main floor footprint) vs the basement level.

What this client is actually saying, and not surprisingly, is that “a bungalow” may be too small for a family planning to have children.

The Breakdown of the house from the King County Parcel Viewer tells us that while the mls allows the description of “1,550 sf” for “the house”, this is really a 775 sf house with a basement.

That is how using this process for subsequent home selections can save you a ton of time and disappointment.

Let’s look at the home details and learn from both the data and the feedback from the client.

The County Record for this house, plus the mls system data, tells us:

Bungalow Description

You can use the above format as a general template. If you are lucky, you will find a little hand drawn sketch of the original main floor footprint from the County Records site, as I did here.

A few notes:

– Lot size of 4,450 sf is acceptable…but smaller than current zoning requirements
Oil heat…but forced air vs baseboard system. Forced air can be converted to gas and even have air conditioning, as long as gas is “available” in the street. A quick search of the area for neighbors with gas heat and or cooking tells me it is available, and in fact the majority of homes in the area use gas vs oil at present. Note- where is this oil TANK?
– Main floor foorprints of 800 sf are likely too small (I generally like to see at least 1,000 sf)
– Three bedrooms on one level likely preferred, but master on main and two up may work. (Note: There was no such thing as “a master bedroom” at the time this home was built. Master Bedrooms came out sometime after I was born 🙂 which would be 1954. Not common until the 70s or early 80s. “Where is the master bedroom?” may be an odd question if you are looking at a small home built in 1915.
– “dishwasher” included is often a strong indication of a kitchen upgrade, since dishwashers did not exist in 1915. However that upgrade may have been anytime since the 70s when dishwashers became more commonplace.
– an EXTRA 500 sf detached garage is a considerable feature, especially with alley access, as long as it doesn’t take up the whole yard.

Looking at the sketch, the home “as built” was likely 22 feet across and 33 to 35 feet “deep”. Assuming you need 3′ to “pass” into the rest of the home, that leaves only (22-3) 19 feet for the width of both the bedroom and living room on a combined basis. Hence the “bedroom is small” and “living room is small”.

Once you have the basics covered by seeing a few homes, you can save yourself, and the homeowner, a lot of time and trouble by checking some of these things in advance. Master in the basement is noted in this case in the mls detail. The main floor being less than 800 sf is noted in the County Record.

By checking both the mls data AND the County Record data, you can better set your expectations before going to view a home.

If the seller left their home with the baby and drove around the block for a half hour and the feedback is “I don’t like the master bedroom being in the basement”, the seller will often get a little ticked off (or a LOT) given that information was available prior to viewing the home.

Coming up with some general parameters based on viewing homes at Open Houses or viewing vacant homes for sale, can save you and the seller a lot of time, trouble and frustration.
“A House is a Box you LIVE in”.

There are really not a lot of variations as to how that “box” can be constructed, as noted in that linked post. You really shouldn’t have to visit 100 homes to find the one that is best for you.

Making some general observations, and charting them out as you go
(or having your agent do that for you)
may help to keep you from “settling” for a house that you really don’t want,

just because you are tired of “the process”.

I will cover the other “basic” home styles in subsequent posts, and link them below. This multi-part series should help make your home search process a lot more productive, and enjoyable.

Washington Association of Mortgage Professionals Celebrates 25 Years

WAMPNext Thursday evening, the Washington Association of Mortgage Professionals has organized a “gala event” to celebrate it’s 25th anniversary and recognize “the best of the best” in the real estate industry from mortgage originators and companies to title, escrow and real estate agents.

michael-colagrossiI thought I would take a few moments to interview Michael Colagrossi, CEO of First Rate Financial (NMLS #60862 MLO#60242) who has been a member of WAMP for the last seven years and is currently serves as the Vice President and in charge of the Mortgage Broker Council, among other duties.

I have had the opportunity to get to know Michael via WAMP and various social media avenues.  My questions to Michael are in bold with his answers following in italic.

Michael, how has WAMP benefited you and your company? WAMP has allowed our company to become more involved with the ongoing changes in the mortgage industry and how to be proactive verses taking a reactive stance.  I also think as a professional it is important to take time to contribute to ones professional association for building and being involved  in a community of professionals allows one to share best practices, knowledge and experiences which benefit everyone.

In your opinion, what are the most 3-5 important contributions WAMP has made to the industry? First and foremost, I believe being in an association that has stood the test of time for 25 years being here are a resource to our industry as well as local and national outlets is a contribution in itself.   We interact with local government whether it be meeting with Maria Cantwell’s office to become their source of information for mortgage related questions, or meeting monthly with DFI in Olympia to give feedback on legislation and how we believe it impacts the citizens of Washington and those in our industry.

Secondly our ability to promote our professional among the public is important and what our members have to go through on a yearly basis to maintain their professional status. This can be seen by visiting our newly launched website at www.mywamp.org.

Third, we are an outlet for not only Mortgage Loan Originators but also all industry professionals ranging from appraisers, insurance agents, title and escrow professionals to voice their opinion in a social setting at our events.  I think sometimes just getting together helps make us realize everyone has a support system and there are others out there fighting the good fight.

WAMP has made it 25 years – what does the future bring for WAMP? Our organization has gone through ups and downs and we recently reorganized WAMP to better reflect the economy. Flexibility and more important, the people we have that volunteer on our board is what helps keep us going. For this is a volunteer organization and without everyone contributing, we would not be here today. We are currently growing and look forward to continuing our progress into the decades to come!

Can you tell us a little about the event next Thursday that is celebrating WAMP’s 25th anniversary? The event is meant not only to celebrate our organization turning 25, but more importantly to recognize the professionals in our industry who go above and beyond for their clients and fellow business partners. The awards re meant to let the community know more about these individuals and teams and acknowledge their contributions over the last year. This event is also a time for everyone to take a load off and celebrate a great year for with all the ups and downs, sometimes we forget to take a step back and smile and realize that life is not all bad and there is light at the end of the rainbow.

Thanks, Mike! 🙂

If you would like to attend this “black tie optional” event, RSVPs technically close tomorrow with limited rsvps next week.   Martin Kooistra, CEO of Habitat of Humanity’s Seattle/South King County is the Key Note Speaker with the awards dinner following.

I hope to see you at the Renaissance Hotel in Seattle on Thursday, October 27th.  RSVP here.

Warning: School Rankings Just Went Whacko!

schoolMany parents or “to be” parents use School Rankings as part of their Home Search Process, and I generally support that wholeheartedly. BUT something is amiss!

I don’t know what just happened. Possibly a new set of test scores just came out? The lineup of schools on most School Rating sites just shifted, and the results are staggeringly “off”. One is always forewarned about using these sites as indicators of a school’s net worth, or an indication that your child will get a better education. But usually they follow the sequence from high to low that blends with the overall frame work of areas and home prices and long term supports for what I call “the lineup” of “Best Schools”.

But for some reason, one of the long term lowest ranked schools just jumped up to highest. Usually the top 1 to 5 schools stay in “a pack” and move around. One year one is “the top school” and then it moves to 2nd place. 3rd can jump to first…and so on.

The 10th ranked school RARELY jumps from tenth to first overnight! I’ve never seen that happen before, and I am seeing it happen today. It could have happened in the last week or so. I don’t check them every day.

Be forewarned…something is amiss. I can’t put my finger on exactly what caused this recent change, and it is fairly overall across different schools and different ranking sites. Just be forewarned that if these sites were ever reliable and/or you have considered them to be so, and I generally have over the years, there is something rotten in Denmark at the moment.

I strongly suggest you not use them in your home search process until we can figure out what the heck just happened.

Style Trends – Should You Care?

Looking back at some photos of mine taken in my home when my children were small. Those were the days of colored carpeting, wallpaper, full wall brick fireplaces and large family gatherings.

37454_405529779204_627499204_4511711_4965854_n

We decorated this room in Waverly Prints, from the sofa to the drapes and the wallpaper. Coordinated fabrics from the same family of prints.

13464_441406822348_577012348_6288875_1887425_n (1)

My oldest daughter, Tina in the middle in the photo above, recently said on facebook after viewing these photos, “Thank you Mom for making such a wonderful ‘home’ for us!”

Are we TOO concerned these days about being all the same? Treating our “homes” like “assets” vs a unique environment for our families?

34044_403262089204_627499204_4452631_2997488_n

All too often when I look at homes with clients they all blend together into one repetitive theme of BORING, same…same…same.

waverly print

Waverly is still around…and you can get contemporary themes like the one above. But you are more likely to find that in a coffee shop than a home. A little sad really.

I’m not suggesting everyone should run out and buy wallpaper and dark blue carpet. 🙂

But being a bit BOLD and allowing your personality to shine through your home’s decor is long overdue.

stair

It gets a bit dreary in Seattle, so in the photo above I blended splashes of color with the white overall brightness. If you are one of those people who complains a LOT about the lack of sun in Seattle. You might want to reconsider your choices of interior decor.

Do you have a bit of brightness when you come home each day? Or is your decor adding to the depressing grayness outside?

lr

*

It’s a lot easier to be bold with paint colors…though I don’t suggest you be quite as bold as I am. Not too many people would have Grinch style CLAWS on their coffee table.

coffee table

Given most people are buying their homes today with the intention of  living in them for at least 7 to 10 years…maybe it’s time for “personalizing” your homes to make a comeback!

Make a nice “home” for your family. Make a Happy Home to come home too. Style trends are so One Size Fits All Neutral.  Reach inside for what YOU like when decorating your home vs what everyone else’s home looks like, or what the magazines say you SHOULD do.

Let’s go back to “Home Sweet Home”. What does your “home” say about you?

National Coming Out Day; We’ve come a long way in real estate and lending

October 11th is National Coming Out Day.  As an educator in the real estate and mortgage lending sector, I enjoy hearing stories from students about what it was like to sell real estate and originate loans in the 1950s and 1960s, before the Fair Housing Act of 1968 and the Equal Credit Opportunity Act of 1974.  The young-youngsters in the room are a bit taken aback to hear real-life stories about neighborhood segregation, discrimination against Jews or African Americans, and denying credit to women.  Blockbusting, redlining, and racial discrimination as well as mortgage lending discrimination happened to people who are still around to tell those stories because it really wasn’t that long ago.

Is the Seller a “Foreign Person”? Buyers, FIRPTA Says You Better Find Out

ID-10075952This is not legal advice. For legal advice, consult an attorney in person about your specific situation. Never rely on a blog. [Updated 12/17/14]

The Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) is a federal law that requires a “foreign person” to pay tax on the gain realized upon the sale of real property owned by that person. However, the law does not make the seller responsible for paying this tax.  Rather, the law requires the buyer to determine whether or not the seller is a “foreign person” (basically a non-resident alien).

If the seller is a “foreign person” as defined by the statute,then the buyer must withhold 10% of the sale proceeds at closing. These funds are to be forwarded to the IRS to insure that the foreign person pays tax on the gain realized from the transfer. If the buyer fails to determine that the seller is a foreign person and thus fails to withhold 10% of the proceeds, the buyer is liable for the 10%. WOW! That’s significant. If you just bought a $400,000 house from a foreigner and did not satisfy your obligations under this statute, you may be liable to the IRS for a cool 40 grand. Ouch.

The NWMLS, recognizing the serious risk to buyers, has included a “FIRPTA” provision in the standard Purchase and Sale Agreement (PSA):

j. FIRPTA – Tax Withholding at Closing. The Closing Agent is instructed to prepare a certification (NWMLS Form 22E or equivalent) that Seller is not a “foreign person” within the meaning of the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act. Seller shall sign this certification. If Seller is a foreign person, and this transaction is not otherwise exempt from FIRPTA, Closing Agent is instructed to withhold and pay the required amount to the Internal Revenue Service.

So that’s good news! The PSA specifically instructs the closing agent, aka escrow, to make sure the buyer complies with this legal obligation.  Whew!

Wait, there’s bad news? Yep. Virtually every escrow company has its own “escrow instructions” that elaborate on the terms of the PSA.  And guess what?  Those instructions relieve the escrow agent from taking any steps to make sure the buyer complies with FIRPTA.  Here is the language from some commonly used escrow instructions:

Seller warrants to Escrowee [i.e., the Closing Agent] that if Seller is an individual, Seller is a non-resident alien for purposes of U.S. Income taxation, or if Seller is a corporation, partnership, trust or estate, Seller is not a foreign entity. The Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act of 1980 as amended by the Tax Reform Act of 1984 places special requirements for tax reporting and withholding on the parties to a real estate transaction where the transferor (seller) is a non-resident alien or non-domestic corporation or partnership or partnerships. It is understood and acknowledged by the undersigned that (a) Escrowee will not take an active role in either the determination of the non-alien status of the seller transferor or the withholding of any funds; and (b) Escrowee makes no representations and (c) Buyer and Seller are seeking an attorney’s, accountant’s, or other tax specialists opinion concerning the effect of this Act on this transaction and are not acting on the statements made or omitted by the Escrowee.

So what protection the PSA provides, the escrow instructions take away. “Whew!” is grossly premature.

Obviously, “consulting with an attorney or other specialist” is simply the escrow company engaging in a little CYA.  The closing agent, and only the closing agent, is in a position to obtain the necessary signed certification. The PSA instructs the closing agent to do so.  But the closing agent promptly tells the buyer that it will not do so. If you’re a buyer in this situation, watch out. You could get some exceptionally bad news from the IRS long after you’ve purchased the home.

Not convinced? Check out my follow-up post where I flesh out my opinion with those of several other residential real estate lawyers.

Finally, this is a fantastic illustration of how a buyer can benefit from having an attorney on board from the get-go. At Quill Realty, we provide every client with an attorney (and we pay the attorney’s fee). So if you’re a Quill client, you can rest assured that your attorney will identify and resolve this issue (usually by demanding that the closing agent comply with the terms of the PSA and not those of the escrow instructions, to which they usually agree).  Not a Quill client?  Well, good luck in seeking to eliminate this very substantial post-closing exposure to the IRS…

Redfin – Scouting Reports – Nerd Values – Craig Newmark

So…you may be wondering what all the Hoo-Ha is about.

The posts and comments in the above links are embarrassing to the Real Estate Industry at best, and convey a HUGE misunderstanding between the “Agents and the Nerds”.

Remember Glenn’s “Memo from Nerd-Land to Realtors: Drop Dead” post? Well…let’s just say the Industry’s immediate response to Redfin’s Scouting Reports was that same message…in reverse…for now.

The issues are many and varied, as they always are.

How many transactions does an agent have under their belt was the primary focus of this Redfin attempt at “transparency”.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * *Why is TRUTH creating so much controversy? Simple. Who’s Truth???* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Redfin Scouting Report

LET’S LOOK AT ONE OF THE KEY POINTS OF THE DISPUTE

USING THE CHART and SCREEN SHOT BELOW.


RedfinScoutingReportSellers2

OK…Right off the bat…HOUSTON…WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!!

In this corner…we have Ms. Traditional Agent with 8 sellers and 7 buyers in a 12 month period.

In this corner…we have…drumroll please…Ms. Redfin Agent with 37 “deals” in a 12 month period…no destinction between listings sold or buyers helped and 212 “DEALS IN A LIFETIME!” with no “lifetime” stats for anyone else.

Since every ONE Redfin agent is FIVE licensed agents, per the Redfin site,

that 37 for “the Redfin Agent”
is really only 7.40 compared to Ms. Prudential’s 15,
isn’t it?
37 “deals” divided by 5 licensees = 7.40 each.

C’mon Matt…I love ya. But treated everyone “the same”? I know you truly believe that in your heart of hearts…but your model is just so different that it stacks the deck in your favor. I’m sure after reading this, you will understand what all the hoo-ha is about. That is my goal…to bring both sides a little closer together, so Scouting Reports may in fact BE a future reality.

It would be great! It could be great! But, you can’t expect mls sytems or other agents to “stack their deck” the same way that your model does, can you? I mean really.

If one Traditional Brokerage put ALL the company’s sales in the names of TEN of their 100 agents…wouldn’t you call them “Liar, Liar…pants on Fire?” …and yet, that is what you are doing. God Forbid a Traditional Company would do that…you’d tear them to shreds!

Below, See Why the Redfin Data is SO MISLEADING! in a comparison of this type.

Redfin Scouting Reports

There are tons of comments all over the internet freaking out about all this, and rightly so, and from both sides of the equation.

To my good friend Jeff Turner who said to me that Homebuyers Didn’t ASK For THIS, I offer this quote,

“Steve Jobs Knew What We Wanted Before We Knew We Wanted It.”

THAT is what Redfin, and as Glenn Kelman put it “Nerd-Land”, is all about. The Traditional Industry makes what THEY want consumers to want…and then spoon feeds it to them with a little bit of sugar to make the medicine go down.

It is near impossible for Traditional Agents to understand Redfin, or Glenn Kelman, or Matt Goyer, because we are in the same industry, kind of. That makes every act of theirs “suspect” in the minds of their traditional brokerage “competition”. Or…perhaps…the darts are thrown merely to hold them at bay.

BUT what OUR INDUSTRY needs to “get” in order to understand Redfin and the Future of Real Estate, is the understanding of “Nerd Values”. I stole that term from Craig Newmark.

If you can understand Craig Newmark…even just a little bit, and I urge you to try, you will understand Redfin and what Redfin is about.

A few relevant quotes from Craig Newmark as seen in this video:

“Doing WELL by doing GOOD.”

“The SEA of Goodwill”

“…good intentions are REQUIRED…”

“LikeMinded.Org”

Nerd’s WILL: – “Annoy Them Into That Mode That Has Value.”

People Call Redfin “an outsider” BUT…remember this…Craig Newmark when creating Craigslist was ALSO “an outsider”.

Redfin is to Real Estate as Craigslist is to Classified Advertising.

The Nerds will be heard, and will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, until they beat down the selfish intentions and replace those with good intentions.
That is the FUTURE. That IS Social Media. That IS blogging. That IS The Internet.

“People are normally trustworthy and generous, and the Internet brings the good out far more than the bad.” Craig Newmark

The Future of Real Estate will lie in these principals. The Nerds will “annoy (us) into that mode that has value”. In the meantime…the industry as a whole…well most of it…will keep responding with THIS.

Today’s Homebuyers Like Hardwood Floors

Whether it’s a new house or an old house, people like hardwood floors better than carpet, especially on the main floor.

Looking at the stats for North King County, a home without hardwood floors is about 2X as likely not to sell, especially at a price point of $400,000 or more for the home. About 24% to 26% of homes that “expire”, or homes still on market and not sold, do not have hardwood floors. Compare that to only 14% of SOLD homes without hardwood floors and you see that 86% of recent home buyers chose a home that had hardwood floors.

Wide plank, narrow plank, light oak, dark finish…lots of variances as to preference of TYPE of hardwood floor. But hands down, even if the new buyer refinishes the floors to a different color, they choose homes with hardwood floors that they can refinish over homes that would need hardwood floors installed.

While “What type of carpet to use to sell your home?” has not changed much…the better answer for the main living areas is hardwood…hands down.

The “new” preferred color of hardwood is less red than the once popular Brazilian Cherry, darker than the blonde tones of yesteryear, but not quite as dark as the short lived chocolate brown craze that lasted about a millisecond.

A warm chestnut brown is the color of the day.

It’s great for the floors…but a little dull for the kitchen or bathroom cabinetry. The new warm chestnut brown hardwoods are best used when the kitchen and main floor baths are a light colored ceramic tile or a laminate floor that blends the color.

Armstrong calls the color “gunstock”. It’s darker than light…lighter than dark…and solidly BROWN vs orange or red tones. Much easier to decorate a room without clashing with the tone of the hardwoods when using this color in many and varied rooms in the house. As a matching cabinet color choice though…I don’t think that trend will last. It’s just too darned dull to have as a kitchen cabinet color.

If after reading this you have any questions as to the color I am talking about…just visit any new model homes…it’s all the rage…and they are pretty much ALL using it in their model homes.

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(Stats in this post not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

It’s time for a ban on all third party short sale negotiators.

Not a day goes by that I do not hear a story from a Realtor, loan originator or consumer about a questionable if downright bad experience with a third party short sale negotiator. We’ve reached a point in time where we ought to consider eliminating all third party short sale negotiators. At the end of this article I will provide suggestions for home sellers, home buyers, real estate brokers/Realtors, attorneys, and regulators in order to maximize good consequences and minimize bad consequences for all parties.

Yesterday I received a frantic call from a homebuyer we’ll call Maggie, who found me online via this blog post. Maggie fell in love with a short sale house but after her offer was accepted and moving toward the close of escrow, the third party short sale negotiator announced that since the lender would not pay his full fee (short sale negotiator was already being paid $3000), as the buyer, she would have to come up with an additional $7,000 at the close of escrow.  Maggie was in love with the house but didn’t have the extra 7K so the third party short sale negotiator suggested she get a loan and pay him after the close of escrow.

There are so many things wrong with the above scenario I don’t even know where to begin.  So let’s begin at the beginning. The growth of fee-based, third party short sale negotiators was fueled by a perfect storm:

1) Collapse of the real estate bubble and resulting growth of over-mortgaged homeowners.
2) Rapid growth in the need for real estate listing brokers who know how to negotiate a short sale.
3) Decimation of the subprime industry and resulting out-of-work loan originators and Realtors.
4) “Get rich quick

Is King County at 2001 or 2005 price levels?

Was reading the questions in the comments over on The_Tim’s post about “The Bottom Falling Out on the Low Tier”. That prompted me to run some numbers on two cities in King County. One of which is moving more solidly back into the low tier…and quickly. Another that has been in the high tier since before prices started increasing dramatically in the credit boom years.

Before I post the data, I think we should strike the tiers of 2001 and 2011 based on all Single Family Home sales in King County only, since Case-Shiller tiers are based on a different set of criteria. For this purpose I remove single and double wides, houseboats and townhomes and deal only with detached single family homes. I am using the first 5,000- homes sold in each of those years to set the tier values, since my home calculator stops at 5,000 homes. For 2001 that is the 1st quarter sales. For 2011 that is through the end of April.

2001

Low Tier – < $216,000
Mid Tier – $217,000 – $310,000
High Tier – $311,000+

with median of high tier at $400,000

2011

Low Tier – < $274,000
Mid Tier – $274,000 – $447,000
High Tier – $447,000+

with median of high tier at $614,000

For those wondering why these Tier Pricings are so very different from Case-Shiller numbers, it’s because Case-Shiller combines King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties. These are for King County only. ALSO, I’m pretty sure Case-Shiller uses resale (matched pairs) and pretty much excludes New Construction entirely, and a lot of Redmond’s story and the high price tier story is in that New Construction.

The dramatic change in the median price of the high tier tells us A LOT!

Obviously based on median prices, King County is no where near 2001 levels, BUT the following data is a bit startling.

graph (16)

Redmond running a hair under 2005 median home price, but no where near 2004 median pricing. Federal Way on the other hand quickly degenerating toward 2001-2002 pricing.

Of course once you have some more information…you have to keep going to determine the why of it. “Why” never has ONE standout answer…but the mix of foreclosures is clearly a BIG part of the story.

2011 fwr

I remember reading a question on a general forum asking why a person can’t find a foreclosure home to buy in their area of preference, when all the news stories are pointing to the DELUGE of foreclosures? Well, ZOMG! that snapshot of the market above “tells a story…don’t it?” to quote Rod Stewart.

Now compare that to 2010 and you will quickly see why the Bottom Tier is pulling away…and getting HAMMERED!

2010fwr

The % of Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures (short-sales) in Redmond has barely changed. Federal Way? Well…maybe they have no place to go but up? Certainly hope so.

Now let’s look at the HUGE decline in Price of Bank Owned Property 2010 to 2011. This is going to knock your socks off.

Sorry…have to throw this in as a link over. The chart won’t load.

The short of it for people who don’t like to click on links is that the Bank Owned Solds in Federal Way not only jumped UP from 28% of total sales to 47% of total sales, but the median price of those Bank Owned sales declined from $191,000 to $156,000. WAY below 2001 pricing, and with the volume of them, they dragged the median overall sold price down from $246,000 in 2010 to $199,000 YTD 2011. Maybe it will swing back a bit by year end. But Holy Caboley!

As you will also see in that link, Redmond Bank Owned solds did not change much at all as a % of total sales, BUT the median price of those dropped from $475,000 to $330,000. Still…not enough of them to impact the overall median sold price much in Redmond.

Redmond is easier for me to explain, since I don’t work in Federal Way. Let’s see if I can get another graph to load up. WordPress is liking graphs better than Raw Data Charts.

age

I combined these two so you can see the dramatic difference. Homes Sales in Redmond are being bolstered by the fact that a LOT of new and newer homes are being sold. You may see that change dramatically in 2012 as the builders seem to be shifting over to Sammamish due to the fact that they have used up a lot of the available land in Redmond.

To some extent the shift will move from 98052 to 98053, 98074 and 98075. But will the buyers shift with them? Probably yes, unless there are a lot more newer homes on resale in 98052 to compete with the travelling builders. You may say there are still plenty of newer resale homes in 98052, but track that against school rankings, and you will see what is happening there with regard to Elementary Schools.

So the drastic decline in Redmond Bank Owned Sold Price from 2010 to 2011 has a lot to do with the % of homes that are, or more aptly said WERE, newer homes. It looks like the glut of spec home leftovers here and there were pretty much sucked up in 2010 when 80% of the Bank Owned Sales were NEW…built since 2005…and most never lived in. Those empty new homes, some completely finished…some not so much especially as to landscaping, are pretty much gone.

Scanning at my notes here (my desk looks like the whacky professor after doing all of these stats on scribbles before processing them into charts and graphs) I’m seeing that the total # of foreclosed properties in Redmond 2011 that were built prior to 1980 are equal to the total # of foreclosures in 2010 of which 80% were built after 2005.

So the decline in price of foreclosed homes in Redmond (as noted in the link above) has more to do with the AGE of those homes, than a drop in prices.

Why the big drop in price in Federal Way? Age of homes does not seem to account for that. I don’t work in Federal Way…so it’s not as easy for me to read reality into the data there, as it is for me in Redmond. My best guess is that it is a degenerating market…like a cancer growing…each new set of foreclosures running off a discount of the current median price. Each new wave of foreclosures dragging that median price down due to sheer volume…and the downward spiral is feeding on itself.

Will be interesting to see if any of this swings back into place by year end. My gut tells me 2012 is going to be a wild ride. Looks like Federal Way has no place to go but up, let’s hope so.

Redmond on the other hand is likely going to lose a lot of that huge support from the new construction homes over to Sammamish, unless we start seeing a whole lot more newer home resales coming on market. That may also be good news for people in Redmond who have been trying to sell their built prior to 2000 homes. I have a feeling it will.

I just don’t see all of the Redmond buyers running over to 98074. Some, yes. Relocation Buyers, yes. But for the most part, either sales volume is going to plummet…or people are going to starting getting a whole lot more interested in some of those older homes that have been languishing on market during the new construction surge up on Education Hill. Probably a little of each.

More graphs and data on the above HERE, HERE and HERE. The last one helps you track the median price for these two cities in each year since 2001, so you can see the rise and fall to and from peak.

(Required Disclosure – Stats in this post and it’s graphs and charts are not compiled, verified or published by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)