What Seattle-area real estate professionals would you like to see blogging?

Life is beautiful!First-things-first: Wow! Life is Beautiful!

It’s been wonderful to take a few weeks off from blogging and I’m so glad that Galen, Robbie, Marian, and Ardell picked up the slack and continued to post very interesting articles! Thanks to all of you!

With that said, I’m definitely looking forward to writing again and I have a whole bunch of ideas for Rain City Guide that I’m planning on implementing in the near future! The most obvious improvement that you’re likely to see is that even more real estate professionals have signed on to post articles! I have a vision for building Rain City Guide into the best resource for real estate information in Seattle and I plan to do that by seeking out a diverse group of real estate professionals with excellent writing skills!

With that in mind, what Seattle-area real estate professionals would you like to see blogging?

Some of the people high on my list include:

  • Rich Barton of Zillow . It definitely would draw some much needed press to this attention deprived start-up!
  • Marlow Harris of SeattleDreamHomes. She’s web-savvy and the oddball type stuff on her site would make for some great blogging. (Whoops! just before posting I noticed that Marlow has had a blog since October 2004, six months before Rain City Guide! I guess this only goes to show that unless you embrace the blogosphere by linking to other posts, you’re likely to hide away in obscurity!)
  • Elizabeth Rhodes of the Seattle Times. I’m thinking a few blogging posts would loosen up her style a bit and we might get interesting real estate reporting along the lines of what John Cook does for venture capital reporting on his Venture Blog.
  • Tom Holst of SeattleModern. Some might argue that Tom already has a blog with his weekly redesign of his site, but the site is missing some key ingredients that make for good blogging (and easy reading), such as comments, RSS feeds, link-friendly URLs. Because he changes the URL of his pages every week, I can’t link to any of his articles because they will quickly be out of date! With all that said, once I make my way through the ever-changing layout of his site, I find Tom’s writing and photos to be very interesting and top-notch… Hence, the reason I wish he was blogging!

Of course, I realize that some of these people are not yet ready to post on Rain City Guide, but it is fun to imagine the possiblities…

Who makes your list?

ZIP, Zillow and ZAP – Part 1 of ?

OK, let’s “Get Real” for a minute.

On the one hand we have the consumer who wants what they need, no more; no less, for a price that seems reasonable.

Now, let’s look at the “service providers”, both as you know them, and as I know them as an insider. From an insider’s perspective there are three tiers of “service providers”. The traditional full service model, the “discounted” full service model and the stripped down to “you are mostly on your own” model. None of these are “good” or “bad” in and of themselves. It’s more a matter of what is good or bad for you, depending on your skills. But that’s for another day. Just wanted you to know that each of these is good for someone. Only question is which is right for you.

Technology has added a fourth option that is not a “model” in the “service provider” sense, but one that many consumers at present are opting for, which I will call ZAP.

I have to use analogies because I am somewhat limited by my insider position in discussing commissions and companies. Straight shooter that I am, being a little vague is not my normal modus operandi, so bear with me. Hopefully my descriptions and analogies will be obvious enough for you to follow. If not, you can ask questions in your comments or by email.

Let’s discuss and eliminate the ZAP option first, since it is not a “service provider”, but a place where many consumers get trapped without knowing that they are getting ZAPPED. It is worth mentioning here that ZIP is not a ZAP. Now back to ZAPs. The most obvious ZAPs have a button that says “Find a Realtor”, or something of that nature. When you hit that button to find a Buyer’s Agent or Seller’s Agent you are decreasing your ability to negotiate the commission, without knowing it. The technology whizzes who create these websites take a portion of the commission, without disclosing that to you the consumer. They do not provide a service to you, the consumer. They provide a service , for a fee, to the agent who is a “participant” at a cost. There are many of these and we call them “lead generating” sites, “bottom feeders” or “troll” sites.

Let’s take a specific example of how these work, and there are many of these available to you. Let’s say you are a buyer, rather than a seller, of real estate. You go to look at property on one of these sites, which is how they reel you in. You then hit the “I need a Buyer’s Agent” button and are connected with an agent. Let’s say based on the price of the house you will eventually purchase, that the commission will be $9,000 as pre-set by the seller of that house when he listed it for sale in the mls. When you connect with the agent by hitting that button, you have generally spent in that process of merely hitting a button on the website, the money you could have negotiated toward your closing costs or repairs or against the purchase price.

The agent who “gets you” has paid for you. He pays for you out of the $9,000 on the table in your “transaction”. Sometimes he pays it up front in a monthly cost of say $1,000 a month. So if it took three months for that agent to “get you ” (“the lead”), he has paid $3,000 for you. When you try to negotiate something for you from the $9,000, the agent has already given $3,000 to the 3rd party ZAP company, and so you get zapped, as your ability to negotiate has been diminished or entirely eliminated without your knowledge.

Some other sites are not “pay as you go” for the agent, but “pay as you close”. In that case the agent will owe the ZAP a percentage of the commission, if and when you close escrow. Again, the monies you may have been able to negotiate with your agent have been sucked up in advance without your knowledge.

Some of these sites operate like the one sided mirror glass of an interrogation room that you see on shows like Law and Order and the like. I find these lead generating “Big Brother” website options to be exceptionally creepy, but hey, that’s technology at its “best”, I guess. When you sign up to the site to view and save property, you are assigned to an agent in the queue without regard to whether or not it is a good match. Those who have paid in to “look at you look at property”, get the leads kind of like the way a lottery ball pops up to the top and gets “pulled”. I’m trying to give you the facts without editorializing, but it’s difficult for me as I find these sites intrusive and deceptive.

OK, back to facts. The agent who “wins you in the lottery” of the moment, gets to see everything you are doing from the inside without your knowing he is watching you. He can see what properties you are viewing. He can see which ones you are saving vs. ones you are trashing, he can “get inside your head” a bit. He gets all of the info you have put in to register for the site. You then get an email from him, and maybe a phone call, saying “Would you like to go see X property”? You are dumbfounded and amazed and think he is absolutely clairvoyant! Or maybe you DO want to see that property and don’t think about how he “guessed” you might want to go see that property and you just go see that property without a second thought.

LOL OK, I can’t stop editorializing, can I? Don’t you find this just absolutely creepy? Maybe it’s me. I’ll stop here for today and will continue after some of you comment on this so far. Maybe it’s just me. What do you think? I’d like to hear from you before I go any further. After 5 comments I will go to Part 2 of ?

As to the Title of this entry, let’s review. We are mostly talking about ZAPs that ZAP you, the buyer consumer. ZIP is NOT a ZAP. While you all sit at the edge of your seats awaiting Zillow and it’s wonders, we’all (the insiders for lack of a better term) are sitting back expecting another exploitative ZAP type. Of course “No one knows, but the Shadow”, but at least know what to look for when it comes. My expectation is that it will not give you what you want. That being “What you need, no more; no less, at a reasonable cost” as noted in the second sentence of this entry above. (Someone let me know if that IS what the consumer wants, please. Thanks.)

But it will WOW you with it’s technology, reel you in, and then sell you off to the highest bidder. No one knows yet, but if you hear anything new about it let me know and I will decipher the code.

Five comments from YOU, the reader, and then we will move to the actual means a buyer has to negotiate their commission, unless they have already “shot themselves in the foot” by being totally or partially ZAPPED without their knowledge, from the ability to negotiate.

Have a good day! Look forward to hearing from you!

Ardell

Kirkland Real Estate

I find in my daily chats with people, that the public’s perception of Kirkland Real Estate is a far cry from its reality. So this morning, with one eye open drinking my coffee, I put together some stats for you to bring this point home. I think you will be surprised by this piece I will call “perception vs. reality” which also points out the “housing bubble” area of Kirkland.

For the purpose of these numbers, I have used the mls and not the tax records.

People ask me all of the time in passing, at parties, etc…”How can anyone afford to live in Kirkland?” General perception being that real estate prices in Kirkland are all over a million dollars. That is greatly because the consumer looks at what is for sale. Reality is in what has sold, not what is for sale. We call “for sale” that which has not sold and not particularly reflective of the marketplace.

We will be using an economic forecasting tool called the Rate of Absorption, which is further described in my blog.

Of the 2,042 properties sold in Kirkland (PO) in 2005, only 92, less than 5%, sold over a million dollars.

  • 616 (30%) sold for less than $300,000
  • 856 (42%) sold between $301,000 and $500,000
  • 349 (17%) sold between $501,000 and $750,000
  • 129 (6%) sold from $751,000 to a million dollars
  • Only 30 properties sold between a million and $1.2 million
  • Only 14 properties sold from $1.2 million to $1.3 million
  • And 48 properties sold higher than $1.3 million in 2005

Many people think that Kirkland is the town for millionaires. That is because they look at what is for sale creating this “perception vs. reality” issue. Only 2% of homes sold in Kirkland last year sold for $1.3 million or more BUT a whopping 26% of the homes currently for sale are priced over $1.3 million.

Now let’s get to rate of absorption before my client comes to my house to sign an offer on his way to work.

616 properties sold in 2005 under $300,000. 56 properties on market are priced under $300,000. That’s about a one month supply. If it takes a year to sell 616, it should take a month to sell 56.

856 properties sold in 2005 from $301,000 to $500,000. 63 properties are for sale in that range. That’s slightly less than a one month supply.

349 homes sold in 2005 between $501,000 and $750,000. 62 properties are for sale in that range. At a rate of 29 homes sold in a month, it will take about two months to sell 62 (two months supply on market).

Here’s where it gets very interesting (to me anyway).

While only 129 homes sold last year between $751,000 and a million dollars, there are currently 47 for sale. That’s a 4-5 month supply carrying over from last year. Add that to people who list their homes in the next 4-5 months and you have an oversupply.

While only 11 homes sold last year between a million and $1.2 million, there are currently 30 for sale. Let’s call that a 3 month supply.

21 sold from $$1.2 to $1.3 million and 14 are for sale that’s about an 8 month supply coming out the gate into the new year.

And now for the Piece de resistance! !! (apologies to the French)

While only 48 properties sold over $1.3 million…there are currently NINETY (90) N I N E T Y!! for sale!!! That is almost a TWO YEAR supply! I’m not shouting at you, but I find that incredible. Next they’ll be saying the bubble is bursting because there is pressure on this high end! Oh yeah, they already said that just yesterday in the King County Journal.

Yesterday one of my agents posed this question. Her client was buying a condo for $142,500 and was worried about “the bubble bursting”. I have a client today buying a condo for $99,900. Is HIS bubble going to burst? Of course not. Unless you are up in the air in “bubble territory” over a million dollars, you don’t have to worry about the air getting too thin.

Have a good day! If you would like me to find the bubble range in your neighborhood, just ask as a comment, or email me. While Dustin has “dubbed” me “the Kirkland Specialist”, I have actually sold more property outside of Kirkland than in it, at present. I have sold real estate in PA, NJ, FL, Sacramento and L.A. (kind of two states) Seattle and Eastside. So ask any question you like, about any place you like.

Seabrook, WA – Buy or Not To Buy?

(Marian is a friend of mine who has been following the Seabrook development on the coast of Washington. Based on many interesting conversations that we’ve had about this development, I thought it would be fun let him write updates about the process of buying into this development. -Dustin)

Buy or Not To Buy?

That’s a question to all of you Seattle beachcombers who like ocean sunsets, salty air, sand dollars and beach fires. If you’ve been taking your family down to Newport, Cannon Beach or Seaside in Oregon, now you have a comparably beautiful alternative on Central Washington coast. We are not talking Long Beach or Ocean Shores. We are talking about Seabrook.

I fell in love with this part of the Washington coast several years ago, before anyone announced plans to develop properties in this area, when our family visited the Griffiths-Priday state park. It reminded us of Oregon Coast with its sand cliffs, dunes and beaches. Seabrook is being built just north of the park, on adjacent 88 acres of land on a bluff overlooking the beach and the ocean.

seabrook layout

I have to give kudos to Casey Roloff and his team at the Seabrook Land Company for making their vision of building a town on the undeveloped part Washington coast a reality. Using the New Urbanism approach and building a dense, pedestrian-friendly neighborhood with the public amenities of a small resort and the atmosphere of a beach town, they hit a jackpot. Seabrook is a runaway hit! Just 15 months ago, new 3 bedroom/2 bath “cottages

Take the Money and Run!

Be gentle. It’s my first time.

While I am waiting for an agent to get back from the Seahawks’ game to look at the offer I just presented, I’ll try giving this a whirl.

I stole the Title line from Steve Miller “Take the Money and Run” to explain something you may (or may not) find to be of interest. That is, how can you get the Real Estate Commission into your pocket. Whether or not you should or should not get it, is not going to be discussed here. Let’s just assume you want it, and that is reason enough for me to describe how you may or may not be able to get it.

Let’s assume that if a real estate commission is involved, that you are either a buyer or a seller of real estate. If you are a seller, well that’s easy. You simply negotiate the fee and you get to keep the money. Trick is to get the best agent for the least money. Most think that they need to take the worst agent to pay the least money by signing up with some cheap service. NOT TRUE! All real estate commissions are negotiable with the seller, always.

I think it’s a crime and a shame that most sellers think they can’t get a top agent, without paying top dollar. I think it’s a crime and a shame that sellers think they have to go to those who advertise low fees, to get low fees. I think it’s a crime and a shame that sellers think they can’t get a really good agent, if they want to save money. Do you really think builders pay top dollar? Do you really think builders get less than superlative agents? They can do it; so can you. There is no set fee. All commissions are negotiable.

That’s the easy part. Now for the hard part.

How does the buyer get to “Take the Money and Run!”. Not quite as simple. Especially if you want the cash in your pocket, rather than an adjustment in the price of the home.

First, the basics. The contract that determines the Buyer Agent’s fee is already signed by the seller before the house ever gets in the mls. The Buyer Agent represents you and doesn’t even know the seller (usually), but the seller is the one who put the Buyer Agent’s fee into the asking price. Technically the Buyer Agent is not paid by the seller or the buyer. The Buyer Agent is paid by the Listing Company, and if the buyer takes the money from the seller, the Listing Company may still have to pay the Buyer Agent, even if that money went directly from the seller to the buyer. The Listing Company may have to pay, what they promised to pay in the mls, simply because they promised to do so. Now if that makes no sense to you whatsoever, I’m not surprised. But it’s the truth and one of the reasons why it is hard for a buyer to go around an agent they have “used” to see property.

That being said, let’s get back to the subject at hand “Take the Money and Run!” Understand that the amount of money you can receive is limited by your lender, not by the real estate agents or the seller. If you get any money, it has to be shown on the closing sheet and your lender can and does “disallow” it at the last second. So just when you thought you were going to put the money in your pocket, the lender says “No you can’t”. Getting money “off the sheet” is illegal. It’s called lender fraud. The person committing the fraud would be you the buyer, not anyone else, so be careful.

Jeez, they don’t make it easy for buyers to negotiate their agent’s fee do they? Well it can be done, and I have done it successfully and legally, but not easily.

But the Seahawks just WON!! and I have to go finish negotiating that offer. I’ll take this up again later.

Thank you for your time…and remember…be gentle…you’re my first.

Garbage In = Busy Maids (Cleaning up the MLS mess)

On the soapboxAs promised in my previous post, I’d like to get on my soap box and complain about the state of NWMLS data. As an application developer, I’d rather spend my time developing new & exiting ways of visualizing data instead of developing new & exiting ways of correcting inaccurate data. Unfortunately, in order to accomplish the former, a lot of effort is spent on the later.

For example, of the 20,376 properties that were in the database when I started writing this blog entry, 32 have bogus zip codes. I’m not talking about hard to find errors like a Sammamish property with an Issaquah zip code. I’m talking about outright typos and easy to catch errors. Zip codes like 00000, WA, and other obvious errors, like zip codes smaller than 98001 (which is the smallest zip code in Washington state).

Another bone of contention, is that nearly 7% of the properties in the NWMLS database have a square footage of 0 square feet (1,389 properties). How hard is it to contact the county assessor’s office or the property owner and get the number? Can’t you just give an intelligent guess? Needless to say, this complicates compiling price per square foot statistics because computers have this thing about not wanting to divide a number by zero.

Even more annoying, nearly 18% of the properties in the NWMLS database have a 0° north latitude & 0° west longitude (3,637 properties). Can’t you just go to a map web site and enter an intelligent guess? If you can afford to be a competitive realtor, you can afford a cheap GPS receiver to put accurate data into the MLS when you list a property. I’m sorry, but you if you say your client’s property is located in middle of the Atlantic, 350 miles off the coast of Accra, Ghana in Western Africa, why should I believe anything else in your listing?

Perhaps most disappointing is that over 50% of the properties in the database don’t have elementary school, junior high, or high school information associated with the listing (10,419 properties)! How is a client supposed to make an intelligent decisions on the quality of schools, if that information isn’t available? I can only imagine how frustrated professional realtors must feel about this since their livelihood is dependent on the quality of this data!

Now, given the frequency of these errors, it astounds me that I have yet to find an instance in which a county, city or community name was misspelled. So obviously, it is possible to have high quality data in the database. But why is only some of it of consistently high quality? And why do we have so many errors of commission?

To paraphrase one of Murphy’s Law “If builders built buildings, the way the local MLS (and local realtors) compile data, the first woodpecker would’ve destroyed civilization“. Why is the data so bad? Are some realtors too lazy to bother with listing a property with complete and accurate information? Does the MLS not care about this? Are the MLS data collection tools so bad, that the fact we have any data (much less accurate data) is a feat worth celebrating? Perhaps most importantly, what can we do to improve this sad state of affairs? To quote General Beringer, from the movie WarGames “I’d piss on a spark plug if I thought it’d do any good!”

Robbie
Caffeinated Software

PS – Go Seahawks!

Zillow fans, meet your new blog

Blog of Spencer Rascoff, employee of Zillow. Today’s post gives out (already available) information about Zillow. They’ve raised $32 million. It sounds like they’re settling in on a business model: Zillow’s 75 employees (mostly engineers) will manage to get the beta version out within the next 6 months. The comparison of Zillow to Hotwire is also very informative.

-Galen
ShackPrices.com

Is it bad if everyone else does it too? What if you're one of the best?

Realtors are the subject of another balanced-but-critical New York Times article today. This time it’s for a whole host of lobbying-related fair market-blocking activities.

Frankly, I don’t have a lot of sympathy for banks, but the strong-arm tactics of the National Association of Realtors described in the article make banks look like victims of injustice. The story meanders away from bank-blocking tactics to easier to explain subjects, like the federal suit brought against the National Association of Realtors for locking low-cost realtors out of many listings. It appears the government (a very pro-business administration, at that) wants to create a level playing field:

When the suit was filed, J. Bruce McDonald, a deputy assistant attorney general, said, “Our job is to ensure that one group of competitors doesn’t tell some of its members they can’t compete in a certain way and undercut the level playing field.”

The defense:

Ms. Janik warns that major changes to the multiple listing services could cause large nationwide brokerages to pull out of the system and establish their own private listings. That, she said, would be a far greater threat to small firms.

So what’s the story? As I understand it, the progressive (egads!) North West MLS does not allow brokers to selectively block listings from competitors sites, which is what the realtors say they have a right to do. And, as far as I can tell, Windermere and the other monsters still list their houses with the NWMLS. Why? Because listing on the MLS allows way more potential buyers to see their houses and, sorry FSBO lovers and separate MLS creators, having more potential buyers increases the speed and price at which your home sells. Also, it would be extraordinarily two-faced if they first said “don’t do For Sale By Owner (FSBO) because you won’t get the exposure that you would get with a full-service brokerage” and then said “list with us even though only we’re going to intentionally reduce the visibility of your property to only buyers who talk to our agents.”

If anything, the Justice Department’s suit should keep realtors in business longer. If the system is open just enough that innovators and alternative pricing models will use it, they keep people in the fold and maintain some pricing power. If the system is locked down, innovators will tend to create MLS replacements systems until one of them succeeds.

Realtors: a PR campaign is in order. Your organization is blocking open markets left and right in order to enforce a 5-6% commission structure. The reputation of the National Association of Realtors is headed toward car salesman and lobbyist territory and when other folks find themselves having monopoly-like pricing power, they spend some of that money on goodwill (see: Microsoft). When other organizations find themselves in this making lots of money, not very popular pickle (for good reasons or bad), they also advertise on NPR (see: ADM, Exxon, Walmart).

On a side note, why haven’t I heard of the sell-your-home-get-a-Toyota model?

“Because the industry functions as a cartel, it is able to overcharge consumers tens of billions of dollars a year,” said Stephen Brobeck, the federation’s executive director. “Consumers are increasingly wondering why they are often charged more to sell a home than to purchase a new car.”

-Galen
ShackPrices.com