Inbox: Where to Live Based on the Quality of Seattle Public Schools?

I’ve been having a dialog with one of my readers who is looking forward to moving to Seattle. His last email summarized some of the research he has done on Seattle schools, and I thought the entire email is so good that it deserved a wider audience:

Dear Anna —

I’ve got another issue you might want to explore on your blog, and get readers’ feedback. Do people looking to buy real estate in Seattle base their choice of neighborhoods on the quality of schools? From my understanding of the Seattle public school system, it seems that one does not need to consider high schools among ones neighborhood selection criteria, since at least in term’s of today’s system, there’s no admission advantage (other than just being close) that accrues to living in the “reference area” of ones preferred high school. However, there does appear to be an advantage to living in the reference area of ones preferred elementary and junior high schools. And if budget cuts ultimately mean cutbacks in school choice (though that has been averted for the time being), then it’s likely that it will be even more important. So, what this means is that if school quality is important to you, you should look at the neighborhood elementary and junior high schools.

However, if one looks at the Seattle city schools in comparison to suburban schools in terms of grade scores (as tabulated by the Seattle Times School Guide), quite a few elementary schools (e.g., Lowell, View Ridge, Wedgwood, Hay, Lawton, North Beach, Whittier, etc.) compete with the best suburban schools (Mercer Island, Bainbridge Island, etc.). However, at the junior high school level, all but a few junior high schools (Eckstein, Tops, Washington) fall out of step with the best suburban schools. And at the high school level, only the Center School ranks with schools on Bainbridge, Mercer Island, Bellevue, Issaquah and the Northshore. The obvious conclusion, then, is that if you seek top notch schooling in the upper grades, your choice comes down to having your child compete for a place at a few select Seattle city public junior highs or high schools, or else looking at private schools, or moving to the suburbs.

What do you think of this analysis? What other school related-factors are there to consider?

I hope you don’t see this as too self-serving. It strikes me as it is a fundamental part of buying real estate, but is rarely fleshed out in public, probably because of the hot-button racial issues involved.

(I’ve left the writer of this email anonymous at his request)

When he asks if any other factors should be considered, I think of some of the specialty programs that different schools offer. For example, all of the 5th grade students at Greenwood Elementary School are taught how to fly airplanes (Cessna 172’s). I imagine that some parents would be willing to give up a few test score points to know that their child was in a more stimulating environment.

What other specialty programs are there that might be of interest to parents moving to Seattle?

What other school-related factors should he consider in looking for a home in Seattle?

I would definitely like to open up his questions to other readers, so please feel free to leave comments below.

Ballard History.

[photopress:shilshole_boats.jpg,thumb,alignright]The City of Seattle’s website has an interesting tour of Ballard history that has some fun gems of information (including some wonderful historic photos).

“The first claim in the future city and neighborhood of Ballard was filed in 1852, the same year settlers arrived in Seattle itself. Development proceeded slowly until railroad entrepreneurs Thomas Burke and Daniel Gilman (remembered now with the Burke-Gilman Trail) assembled a large tract in 1888 for the construction of a new community.
Meanwhile, a ship’s captain named William Rankin Ballard lost a bet with a business partner and found himself the owner of 160 acres of seemingly worthless logged-off land adjacent to the planned Gilman Park development. Burke and Gilman hired him to manage their project, and appreciative residents named their new city after Ballard when they incorporated in 1890.”

“The large wave of Scandinavian emigrants were coming to this are and in 1889, when Seattle all but burned down, Ballard’s sawmills supplied materials to rebuild the city. For years, Ballard was the No. 1 producer of wood shingles in the world, earning it the nickname “Shingle Town USA.”

“Back than Ballard was a rough-and-tumble town. Factory whistles signaled the start and end of the day. Ballard was also a fishing town, and on Salmon Bay – the birthplace of Ballard – Alaska fishing trawlers remain a dominant presence. Men heading home would stop along Market Street to buy supper or hoist a beer in one of Ballard’s many saloons.”

“Now we define Ballard by boundaries on North 110th NW st. , South and West Salmon and Shilshol Bays and the East by 3rd Ave NW and Phinney Ridge. Ballard includes the neighborhoods of Loyal Heights, Crown Hill, Blue Ridge, Bitter Lake and Broadview. While the others are primarily residential, Broadview, roughly the area between North 105th Street and 145th Street from Puget Sound east to Aurora Avenue, is a community that has seen big changes in housing and urbanization. “

Ballard Treasure: Hiram M. Chittenden Locks

[photopress:404_0447_IMG.JPG,thumb,alignright]This is the first post in what I hope will be a regular feature. My plan is to post on local treasures… Potential topics include interesting places, events, people, businesses that make Seattle a special place to live.

The Hiram M. Chittendem Locks (also known as the Ballard Locks)
map

What are they?
The Ballard locks opened in 1916 and were built to raise or lower vessels 6 to 26 feet (depending on tide and lake level) to compensate for the difference between the levels of Lake Washington and Puget Sound. Back when the locks were first designed and built, Ballard was a major economic center with a substantial portion of Seattle’s fishing and freight traffic passing through this area. Today, commercial fishing boats still pass through the locks but almost all of the freight traffic has moved to much larger and deeper ports in other parts of the state. The majority of the boat traffic passing through the locks are personal boats either returning from an ocean trip (likely to the beautiful San Juan islands) or a visiting boat from some other part of the world.

How do the locks work?
Think of it like a huge modified bathtub. The important elements of this bathtub are that it has a plug (to stop water), a spigot (to let water in) and two gates (one on the freshwater side and one on the saltwater side). In order to get a boat from the saltwater to the freshwater, the saltwater-side gate is opened and the boat enters. Then the saltwater gate is closed (forming a bathtub) and the tub is plugged. When the spigot is turned on, freshwater fills the water level of the bathtub up to the level of the freshwater canal (thanks to gravity!). Then the freshwater-side gate is opened and the boat can enter the canal.

At this point, boats that want to go from freshwater to saltwater can enter the bathtub. Once the freshwater-side gate has been closed, the plug is pulled causing the water-level to fall until it reaches the level of the saltwater. At this point the saltwater-side gate is opened and a boat can enter the salt water!

Other Activities at the Locks
In addition to watching the boats rise and fall with the water level at the locks, there are other activities at the Ballard Locks that can make for a wonderful afternoon. There is a nearby Salmon run and during the summer, some interesting gardens and sculptures, and the grounds are home to some great entertainment on weekends during the summer.

From the locks it is just a short walk along a spillway to get to the “fish ladder” that allows fish to bypass the locks and get to their natual habitat on Lake Washington and beyond. Sockeye, Chinook and Coho salmon, as well as cutthroat trout and steelhead use the ladder to migrate through the canal to Lake Washington. All of this is fun and educational making it a great place to take kids!

Another fun activity at the Ballard Locks is to visit the beautiful botanical gardens. Spreading over seven acres bordering on the canal are some 500 species and 1,500 varieties of mature trees, shrubs and flowers from all over the world. In addition, a small stage is set up most weekend days during the summer on a grassy knoll making this a fun place to spread a blanket and enjoy a picnic.

More links:

Do you have an idea for a local treasure that you’d like to see featured on Rain City Guide? Let me know.

More In-depth Sale Price vs List Price Analysis

Me and my sistersIf you were following the comments from my post from yesterday, I said I would follow up with another stab at diving into how the sales prices versus listing price changes over time. Seeing as how it is already getting late (and I’m tired!), I’m going to stop trying to make sense out of the numbers and present what I’ve found so far.

However, before I go any further, I’m going to rant at my fellow real estate agents! For the sake of all of us who actually care about data, please learn to double check your work before submitting listing information to the MLS! I spent more time cleaning up the database due to lazy real estate agents then I did actually creating the charts! Here are some things to look out for (but this list is by no means exhaustive): (1) Spelling: Fremont is spelled with only one “e”, (2) Location: South Lake Union is not a neighborhood located within Ballard and (3)Price: your home that sold for $345,000 probably should not have been listed for $34,500,000.

With that rant out of the way, I thought I would also mention that I’m not the only one surprised by housing numbers today… Hot Property had an article where Amey Stone says reading NAR’s press releases on sales levels “is starting to be a bit of a yawn — sales weren’t quite at record levels, but darn near close to it.” Unless you get tickled by trends and statistics, expect to sleep through the rest of this post…

When I look at the entire Ballard Area as defined by the MLS (this is a huge area that includes places like Greenlake, Blue Ridge, Wallingford, Fremont, Sunset Hill etc). We see the same seasonal trends over the past two years that I identified yesterday. But when we go back another season, the trend becomes much less pronounced.

Adjusted vs Original List Price Chart

Here are the things I found most interesting about the chart:

  1. The seasonal variation is much less pronounced in previous years
  2. There has been a steady trend up wards where the sale price is greater than the listing price
  3. In terms of trends, it didn’t really matter whether I used the original list price or the adjusted list price.
  4. The huge drop in 08/03 is due to some homes in Broadview that were listed way to high!

My speculation is that the patterns identified the above chart have a lot to do with evolving sales tactics by agents. It seems like it has become more and more common for agents to list a home below the value that they think it will sell for… This does two things: (1) It assures a quick sale and therefore a quick commission for the agent. (2) It has the potential to bring in more buyers and thereby raise the final sale price of the home.

When I went to analyze the data at a more local level, things got much messier… Rather than seeing clear seasonal patterns as I did in Loyal Heights, things simply got fuzzy. They got so fuzzy that I’m hesitant to even provide the next chart because it simply looks like an ugly mess…

My goal in creating the chart was to see if the same trend that held up in my analysis yesterday for Loyal Heights, would hold up for other neighborhoods. As the chart above demonstrates, it roughly holds up for all of Ballard, but as the chart below demonstrates, it does not hold up at the neighborhood level. I’ve done enough regression analysis for transportation planning studies to know that a chart like this is going to give meaningless trends.

Sale Price as a Percent of Listing Price for Ballard Neighborhoods

By the way, if you’re interested in the raw data that I used to create these statistics, just email me, and I can send you the Excel file that has all the wonderful (?) pivot tables and charts I used in creating this post.

Also, please feel free to comment on other ideas you might have for exploring the wealth of information that is locked up behind the MLS database. Anna has the key that opens that door! 🙂

Real Estate Geekiness…

Tonight, I’ve been playing engaging the inner real estate geekiness along the likes of Tom Dozier’s Seattle Property News blog… I’ve been following (from a distance) Tom’s “Home Tracking” posts and not exactly sure where he was going until today. When he said “since one of the signs of the strength of a market is whether high demand is causing people to bid prices above the original amount the seller seeks,” I decided to test out his theory with a larger sample size…

So here is my method. I took all the homes that sold in my neighborhood (Loyal Heights) over the past year and calculated the “Net (Sale minus List Price) as a Percent of List Price”, or this calculation:

  • (Average Sale Price – Average List Price)/Average List Price
  • Average((Sale Price – List Price)/List Price)

The result is summarized in this chart:
% of List Price
(Click on the chart to see a larger version!)

The first thing I found interesting is the extent to which the “Gross Net as a Percent of List Price” varied seasonally… For two years running the % of List Price bottomed out around Feb/Mar and then quickly picked up to peak around May (with homes selling for 4% and 8% over the list price!). Note that February (the bottom) is also when the number of sales bottomed out over both of the last two years.

For reference, there were 182 homes sold between October ’03 and August ’04 in Loyal Heights with the average home selling for 1.2% over asking price. (I threw out September 03 and September ’05 data since I only downloaded data for the partial months…)

My conclusion is that Tom is wasting his time if he expect to see the health of the market by looking at whether or not homes are selling above or below the market price. As my chart demonstrates, there is way too much seasonal variation for a one or two home snapshot to be valuable. Even in the last two years where the value of homes in my neighborhood have consistently risen (quite substantially), there have been long periods (up to six months) where the average home has sold for less than the asking price. However, with that said, I want to say thanks to Tom for raising this intersting issue because you’ve given me an opportunity to learn about (and demonstrate) the huge seasonal variation in the local market!

I welcome anyones comments on my method if you have ideas on improving things (including the obvious improvement of adding more neighborhoods).

Update: I realized this morning in the shower that I was calculating the net (sale price minus list price) as a percent of list price, so I’ve corrected the text in the post (but not the chart!).

Inbox: Where to Live Within Biking Distance of UW?

Sasha With BikeI had someone email me the other day with an interesting question, and I thought I would share my response… and then see if anyone in the community could improve upon it.

Question: I’m moving to Seattle and interested in finding a neighborhood where I can bike to my work at the University of Washington (UW). Where should I be looking?

My Answer: There are a bunch of great places to live in North Seattle that are within biking distance to the UW. I would stay away from the south part of Seattle because there are not a lot of good north-south bike route through the downtown… (too many hills and not enough dedicated bike lanes).

Seeing as how I live in North Seattle and I bike a lot, I end up referencing the bike map put out by the City of Seattle quite often. Here is a direct link to the bike map of North Seattle (*.pdf), but note that this is a large file (1.5 MB). If you download the map, you’ll notice that the Burke-Gilman trail (a solid red line) goes through the UW campus. The Burke-Gilman is a wonderful commuting trail and has been recently expanded to the north-west all the way to the Golden Gardens Park. If you can find a place to live within a short ride to the Burke-Gilman, then you will have an easy ride to work!

By the way, if you follow this link, you can order a free hard-copy of the bike map: http://www.ci.seattle.wa.us/transportation/bikemapform.htm

Do you have a better answer for this question? Are there any neighborhoods that are particularly attractive for bicyclists? Please share your knowledge in the comments section!

Katrina Donations Drop-off in Ballard…

Diane and Stephen of the Sip and Ship store/cafe in Ballard are organizing a donation drive for Katrina Victims and have offered to ship all appropriate donated items for free through the end of September.

What constitutes an appropriate item was not immediately appearent to me, so I emailed them to find out. Here is the response directly from the source:

We are looking for toiletries, diapers/wipes, baby formula, bottles, baby cereal/food, flashlights, batteries, and first aid kits.
Thank you for your support.
Kind regards,
Diana

Thank you Diana and Stephen for making it particularily easy for people to donate items.

If you don’t have any of these items, you can always donate money directly to the Red Cross.

green living resources

Sand Storm at Burning ManI recently added some links on my sidepanel to some environmental resources that I’ve found interesting and/or helpful. Below are the sites along with a little description of why I decided to highlight them.

FreeCycle Seattle “lets you find new homes for things you no longer use and receive what you need–free! Clean out your house, save good stuff from the landfill, and help others at the same time.” The site is similar to the “free” section in most classified ads except EVERYTHING is free… A lot of good stuff turns up on this site, although it is often gone pretty quickly as the turnover rate is quite high.

GreenClean is “the environmentally sound guide to cleaning your home.” While promoting their book by the same name (GreenClean), the site gives some good advice and background on cleaning with the environment in mind.

ReStore has field crews that pick up, salvage, and dismantle building material all over the larger Puget Sound region and central Washington. They offer “quality building and home improvement materials, a wide variety of services including sales, pick-up, salvage, and whole building deconstruction.” Their store in Ballard is filled with hard-to-find materials like old bricks, stones, doors, lamps, etc. If you have an old Seattle home (like I do!), this store can be great source of “original” materials.

Rocky Mountain Institute “is an entrepreneurial nonprofit organization that fosters the efficient and restorative use of resources to make the world secure, just, prosperous, and life-sustaining. We do this by inspiring business, civil society, and government to design integrative solutions that create true wealth.” Based on the 30 years that they’ve spent researching efficiency improvements in everything from water to cars, Amory and L. Hunter Lovins at the RMI offer a glimpse into the environmentally-friendly future that we can create. The book they wrote with Paul Hawken, Natural Capitalism, is a must read for anyone who wants understand how businesses (even small real estate companies!) can learn from natural processes to create positive impacts that benefit us all.

Tree Hugger “The Future is Green. Find it Here.” This blog offers frequent updates on environmental issues and products. Far from being an activist site, the blog is more likely to engage your “environmental aesthetic”. Even so, it is a fun blog to read with lots of good content.

Do you have another environmental-related links that real-estate minded readers might find helpful? Share the wealth by leaving a comment.

Monorail Death Watch

monorail's green lineInspired by Timothy Noah’s Death Watch (the latest regarding Karl Rove) series on slate, I’m tempted to start something on the Monorail as the whole operation seems to be in a death spiral lately… However, rather than go for the jugular, I’ve decided to give my view on how the monorail’s future became so dire.

After the defeat of Initiative 83 that would have effectively banned the monorail, the project seemed on a high. The monorail supporters (rightfully) saw the overwhelming support as a great sign in that the project could now move forward with the full support of the City (at least at the highest levels of the City government). However, as the negotiations between the sole-bidding contractor and the monorail agency dragged on, support seemed to wane. I heard numerous times from people who said that they were tired of all the delays and their support was waning with each passing day.

The latest crop of news began when the monorail announced on June 3rd that an tentative agreement had been reached with the prime contractor for the (relatively unusual) design, build AND operate contract.

On June 21, more details of the agreement were released to the public. This set into motion a series of articles documenting the total cost of the proposal. The Times has a decent article, while the PI put out sensationalist piece giving the total projects costs as “$11 billion”. This holds the monorail up to a higher standard than any other public project and is really just bad economics. For example, it is like saying the price you paid for your $400,000 home ballooned to $1,200,000 because that is the total amount you will pay over the life of your loan. The worst part of this journalism is that I’ve heard numerous individuals quote this number as if the cost of the monorail jumped from $1.7B to $11B overnight. This type of apples to oranges comparison seems irresponsible of the Seattle PI…

If the monorail fails someday, I would say that a definitely turning point happened around the time of the PI’s “$11 billion” article. After that, the Monorail Board and the City Council members had to start explaining economics in order to justify their positions, and this became a no-win situation. Both the Times and the PI ran articles describing how support was quickly evaporating.

Seattle Center FountainThen on July 1, the Monorail board rejected the complicated 50-year financing scheme which led to the resignation of Project Executive Director Joel Horn and Board Chairman Tom Weeks. The Seattle Weekly has since written a scathing article about Joel Horn.

Does this mean that the monorail project is dead in Seattle? Not necessarily. The acting director is working hard to attact a new director and sway public opinion back in favor of the monorail. However, the odds are definitely against the monorail at this point.

On Friday (7/15) the editorial board from the Seattle PI, which has generally been a supporter of the monorail, gave an editorial which asks for the final nail to be put in the coffin of the project. (This had the anti-monorail voices over at the Sound Politics blog jumping for joy, or as one writer put it: “Stunned. Encouraged, but stunned.”)

Can’t get enough monorail information? Here’s a list of my resources:

Farmers’ Markets in Seattle

Tulips As a test for a new little program I wrote to post things on Google Maps, I’ve put a map together displaying all the Farmers’ Markets in Seattle. In order to do this, I cribbed heavily from a few websites such as metroblogging and the Neighborhood Farmers’ Market Alliance .

The farmers’ markets current being displayed include:

  • Pike Place Market
  • Ballard Farmers’ Market
  • Broadway Farmers’ Market
  • Capital Hill Farmers’ Market
  • Columbia City Farmers’ Market
  • Fremont Market
  • Lake City Farmers’ Market
  • Magnolia Farmers’ Market
  • University District Farmers’ Market
  • West Seattle Farmers’ Market

If you know of some other farmers’ markets that should be included or some data that needs to be updated, just let me know.

By the way, I also made my first google maps “marker” for this site. If you look closely, you may notice that the marker is a tulip based on the flower in the center of the above photo.

Farmers’ Markets in Seattle