Tag Archives: Sunday Night Stats

Sunday Night Stats

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Before I get to the regular stats, I like to post a little something of interest that demonstrates why we are looking at the stats so closely.

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Home sales have been running fairly consistently at 32% fewer homes sold over the same month last year, which was down from the number of homes sold the year prior.

This week’s Stats:

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 9,127 – UP 110 – avg. price $729,463 – median price $519,993

In Escrow – 2,557 – UP 104 – avg. price $569,757 – median price $449,900

Closed YTD – 1,551 – UP 266 – avg. price $553,634 – median price $439,000

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,256 – UP 78 – avg. price $455,493 – median price $325,000

In Escrow – 882 – UP 20 – avg. price $$407,528 – median price $315,000

Closed YTD – 533 – 101 – avg. price $356,267 – median price $279,999

Inventory is still coming on at a faster pace than properties are selling, but the single family home market seems to be doing better with that than the condo market.

I noticed during Broker’s Opens this week that many townhomes on the Eastside are encroaching on the price range of some halfway decent single family homes. I think that is bad news for people asking a half a million dollars for older townhomes with deferred maintenance exteriors in less than stellar locations, from what I have seen.

I also see weakness in the condo markets on the Eastside, and that appears to be both due to fewer investors as well as owner-occupied buyers. So financing is not the only issue accounting for the 32% drop in sales.

Per mls rules I must state that these stats are compiled and posted by me, ARDELL, and not the NWMLS.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

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Before I calculate the stats for this week, I’d like to take a minute to explain why I am being this tedious. Week to week stats calculate momentum of the market. Will new inventory grow faster than properties are going into escrow? So far only one week showed a slight decline in inventory, with more properties going into escrow than came on market.

While I fully understand that one week does not a market make, here’s the skinny. Take a look at the graphs below. It’s a long way before we can look at the first quarter of 2008, so let’s look at the three month period beginning 11/ 1 and ending 1/31.

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Number of residential sales are down by 44% from the same period in 04-05. Condos are down 31% both from last year to this year and 04-05 compared to this year. Residential is down 32% compared to the same period last year.
It would appear that the condo market was picking up where the residential market was losing, in previous years. That would reflect buyers being squeezed out of the Single Family Home market and opting for condos, due to affordability.

The just over 30% decline this year appears to be more reflective of the number of buyers who are squeezed out by changes in the mortgage industry, or fear of the unknown.

This week’s stats:

King County – Residential

For sale – 9,017- UP 138

In Escrow – 2,453 – UP 152

Closed year to date – 1,285 – UP 214

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 3,178 – UP 96

In escrow – 862 – UP 34

Closed year to date – 432 – UP 70

As you can see, condos are coming on market at a higher rate than they are selling, moreso than single family residences. Since more single family home owners wait until Spring than condo owners, this is not surprising.

I’m sure we will see stories coming out that the market is “picking up”. However February being better than January doesn’t tell the story of this year’s decline of about 30% compared to last year. While it is possible that the mortgage industry changes did not squeeze out a full 30% of buyers, many are being more conservative, even if the lenders don’t require them to be.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

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I’ve modified the format slightly to include month end stats and will continue that each week. For those just tuning in to Sunday Night Stats for King County, I post these every Sunday night and the UP or DOWN is as compared to last Sunday night’s data.

The data changes based on late postings. A sale closed in January can sometimes show up in February as January. So I’m updating the January closings each week as well, both here and in last Sunday night’s post. I’ve had some emails from people who are pulling these and putting them into spreadsheets. When we get past the 1st quarter, I’ll post a graph YOY by month and quarter.

King County – Residential

For sale – 8,879 – UP 241

In Escrow – 2301 – UP 147

Closed year to date – 1071 – UP 183

Sold/Closed in January – 902

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 3,082 – UP 99

In escrow – 828- UP 33

Closed year to date – 362 – UP 69

Sold/Closed in January -311

I’ll head over to last week’s post and update the January Sold data and percentage change YOY.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Hold On To Your Hats! Sunday Night Stats

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Whoa Baby!  To say these numbers are interesting is an understatement.  I better put that MLS required disclaimer that this data was hand calculated by ARDELL using the MLS system, but not posted or compiled by NWMLS.

We’ll start with the January data Year Over Year (YOY).  Remember a few more sales will trickle in since we are so early in February, and some agents don’t post immediately after the sale.

But as of tonight, the Jan. month end closings (drumroll please):

**UPDATE FOR LATE POSTINGS OF JANUARY CLOSINGS as of 2/7/08 and again on 2/10/08):

King County SFH sales for Jan. 2008 came in at 861 895 902 vs. 1,357 in 2007.  A 36% drop.34%

King County Condo sales are down about 43% 39% from 511 in 2007 to 293306311.

Remember that for every city that is performing better than those percentages, like Bellevue and Redmond whose SFH sales are only down about 15%, there are other cities and areas whose performance was worse than the overall King County numbers.

People ask why I always calculate Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond statistics.  I expect these areas to outperform King County as a whole.  Bellevue and Redmond did.  Kirkland did not.  Living close to Microsoft is still the criteria that gives homeowners the edge in certain parts of Bellevue and Redmond, though not all of those two cities. 

For instance if Factoria performed the same as King County overall, then close to Microsoft is virtually unscathed.  I didn’t break that down, but I expect that is the case given Bellevue and Redmond’s overall performance of down 15% or so.  Next week when we see if there are any more month end closings posted, I’ll break that down to see where really close to Microsoft is coming in.

I’m also tracking which homes are selling and which aren’t.  By visiting the properties in person and picking the ones that should sell, we can tell if there is any impact at all.  If the properties that should sell do sell, then that area ( close to Microsoft) is not affected. 

Now for the weekly stats.  I’ll keep this running with closings on a YTD basis throughout the year and compare the YOY at the end of each month. 

Inventory being “down” means that the sales are happening faster than new listings are coming on market this week.  So a slight, very slight, reduction in inventory for the first time this year.  Sales are keeping pace with, and exceeding, new listings on market by a small margin.

King County – Residential

For sale – 8,638 – DOWN 22

In Escrow – 2,154 – UP 90

Closed year to date – 888 – UP 280

 

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 2,983 – down 26

In escrow – 795- down 28

Closed year to date – 293 – UP 89

Seems a bit odd that In Escrow is down also, but I expect that is because of month end closings.  We’ll see how that shakes out next week and in the weeks to come.

I can’t help but think of the commenter whose monicker is “bored”.  Don’t know how anyone can be bored with this housing market. 

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

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King County – Residential

For sale – 8,680 – UP 172

In Escrow – 2,064 – UP 158

Closed month to date – 608 – UP 169

 

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 3,009 – UP 80

In escrow – 823 – UP 25 – 2.6% of those are contingent contracts

Closed month to date –  204 – UP 60

Next week I’ll have to post both end of month and Sunday night stats plus YOY closings for the month of January.

Single family home market keeping pretty good pace with those closing and going into escrow vs. coming on market.  Condos not so good.  Hard to believe that with over 3,000 on market, only 18 went into escrow two weeks ago and 25 this past week.  If the condos don’t move, the single family market will see the consequences of that come Spring and Summer.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.