About ARDELL

ARDELL is a Managing Broker with Better Properties METRO King County. ARDELL was named one of the Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers in the U.S. by Inman News and has 34+ years experience in Real Estate up and down both Coasts, representing both buyers and sellers of homes in Seattle and on The Eastside. email: ardelld@gmail.com cell: 206-910-1000

Downtown Seattle

While Downtown Seattle is not my normal, day to day bailiwick, I think a few comments are in order, given the recent press regarding the growth in the downtown Seattle area.

We recently sold a fabulous “view” condo in the Newmark and were involved in the “bidding war” over the almost penthouse suite, so I have some limited, first hand knowledge of the goings on in Downtown Seattle.

If you are purchasing a downtown Seattle condo, be a little wary of bargains and do your homework. With all of the new buildings soon to be coming, make sure you check out the direction of the view, as many will be blocked by the soon to come tall buildings. Don’t buy based on view until you check out for yourself if the view is unobstructable, or at least not likely soon to be obstructed.

The trade off of course is that the street level will dramatically improve in the Pike Place Market area, even if the view will be blocked.

Also, if you are looking at comps to support value for your purchase, you need to know about the massive remodeling being done in some downtown condos. The remodels are not your typical-run of the mill, upgraded finishes. Entire reconfigurations of the floor plans have been going on, so that the bedroom is now the living room, etc, to refocus the prime view rooms based on what is to come. Also go outside and study the building and its windows. That one that sold for mega dollars on the 24th floor, had a completely different window configuration than those on the 23rd floor and lower. You can see that there are many more windows on some levels than others, if you study the building exterior. On site research is in order, as you will see things that comps on paper will not readily reveal.

So don’t just assume that the one you are buying is worth the price and calculate the cost of granite counters and the like. Make sure the views will not only be preserved, but will be preserved in that part of the living space that most determines value. Views from the bedroom are great, but views from the living space hold a higher value. Clue is if you have to keep saying “Come into my bedroom and see the view”, that condo is not worth the same as one that has views from the living room. Unobstructable views from both the master bedroom and the living room, of course is best, but hard to come by.

That is not to say that there aren’t some great values down there, because there are. Just be sure the “bargain” price isn’t due to the view being about to disappear and do the homework yourself. Get your info from “the horses” mouth. How you pick your horse to rely on ? In that regard, I don’t have a tip sheet for you 😉

It’s OK to get caught up in the hoopla regarding Downtown Seattle. Just do your homework carefully, as that will determine the winners from the losers, when the dust settles after the new buildings go up.

No Bubble Bursting Here

Well Galen, when I got pinged to start sussing up some numbers, here’s what I came up with.

True, closings Dec. 05 are down most everywhere. But a second wind has kicked in.

Kirkland Dec .05 closings at 127 were down from 154 in Dec 04 – BUT currently in escrow a whopping 206!

Bellevue more even keeled. Dec 05 at 175 down from 195 in Dec 04. Currently in escrow 200.

The high end is holding its own so far with 27 escrows in Kirkland over a mil and 20 in Bellevue, so no bubbles bursting there yet.

The low end is a scramble. New listings are being gobbled up with multiple offers as fast as they hit the market. A few of them didn’t deserve to be jumped on and I had my buyers pass them by, but someone grabbed them anyway.

One of the reasons Kirkland is way up in current escrows is because we have yet another group of displaced persons being kicked out of their apartments for a condo conversion in downtown Kirkland. Those people are scrambling for new digs and those who don’t want to chance being displaced again are buying instead of renting again.

So no bubbles bursting yet. Question will come when new inventory starts popping in at higher levels when the sun ever decides to come back and stay awhile. If the high end inventory doubles, as I expect it will, the low end will do just fine, but I’m still not sure about the $1.3 million plus crowd.

Oh, forgot. I popped into my old stomping grounds over by Green Lake. Same trend there. 76 closed Dec. 05 vs. 119 Dec. 04 with 136 currently in escrow.

Kirkland stilll leading the pack with 206 now in escrow vs. 127 closings in Dec. Go Kirkland…I mean Seahawks. Actually I’m a Sonics fan. Did anyone catch Ray Allen’s 30 foot shot in double overtime to win the game on Sunday?!?! It was a beaut!! And tonight’s win gives us the first back to back win in awhile. Go Sonics!

Buyer-Seller Who Represents Whom?

Under Washington Law, there is only one (1) ONE individual, out of the thousands and thousands of licensed agents, who represents the seller.

Every single other agent, of the other skazillion agents in the State, represents the buyer of that house when discussing that house with a consumer. Even if that discussion is with the seller, the agent who is talking to the seller is doing so as a representative of a buyer, if he is not THE one and only listing agent. (Forget Designated Brokers and Branch Managers for a minute.)

I represent buyers 50% to 70% of the time. But when I am the Listing Agent, my duty is clear. When I am entering data in the mls, I must have my thinking cap on and enter that data to the seller’s best advantage, within the rules, of which there are many.

Washington State is one of the only States in the Country with this legal setup that limits the seller’s representation to one single, individual.

So far you have been telling me that having all of the skazillion agents in the State representing the Buyer isn’t good enough for you. You want the one and only lone person charged with representing the seller in a fiduciary capacity to enter the data “in the best interests of the buyer”.

Don’t you think that’s just a little “off”? Can’t the seller have ONE person who does things in HIS best interest? Just ONE please? That person happens to be the person who enters the data in the mls. If you can convince most of these, who don’t know any better, listing agents to do that to the buyer vs. seller’s advantage…well the pendulum will have swung. Bad enough we’re down to one person who represents the seller out of thousands and thousands of agents. Now you want that guy too.

I’m cleaning my house and my office. I think I’m gonna need that Big Red Dog. Giles, you really got my dander up. What you accused me of is tantamount to slander. Trust me. There is not ONE agent in the ENTIRE COUNTRY who understands FIDICIARY DUTIES better than I do. And my fiduciary duty when entering mls data is to the seller. My fiduciary duty when representing the buyer is to understand that the guy who entered the data represents the seller and not the buyer , and I need to do my “due diligence” and not rely on that in any way, shape or form.

I have a counter offer coming in…you guys chew on that for awhile.

Who Represents Whom?

Which of the two agents on a sale represents the buyer and which one represents the seller?

To date everyone has been ragging on the seller’s agents for what they are not doing for the buyer. The agent who enters the info into the mls is, by definition, the fiduciary representative of the seller, not the buyer.

Just checking that you know that.

Licensees do not sell houses by law. By law they represent one of the parties, either the seller or the buyer (sometimes both).

When a listing is entered into the mls, there is no buyer yet. So the person entering the data is entering the info as the representative of the seller.

I keep hearing about what buyers want that agent to do, when it is only the seller that matters at that given point in time. Only the best interest of the seller client can be the motivation behind what to enter and what not to enter.

Does everyone understand that? Doesn’t seem so.

The Red Dog is Coming!

The Red Dog is Coming! The Red Dog is Coming! Said Ardell and Paul Revere.

The big question is: To Clean or not to Clean?

January 29, 2006 is the first day of the Chinese New Year. We will be entering “The Year of the Red Dog” aka Fire Dog. Do you want that big red dog in your house, or not? If you do, you have to start cleaning right now and make way for him. He won’t come in to dusty, dirty houses, or so the story and Feng Shui principles go. But maybe you don’t want to clean. Maybe you don’t want that big red dog in your house for all of the New Year.

I’m cleaning! I can’t wait to get rid of last year’s Rooster. But what about you?

Do you have a cause you need to get support for? If so, you want to welcome that Dog in to help Champion your causes. But as Morgan Freeman said in Se7en “Not everyone wants a Champion. Most people want to eat hamburgers, play the lottery and watch TV. ” If you’re one of those people, then spend the next 5 days making a big mess and tell that doggy to go to someone else’s house.

Condo Hazard Insurance

If you own a condo, even if you have owned it for many years, it is a good time to check on your Hazard Insurance. What you want to note from the Insurance “Dec” Page, is the amount of the deductible. These days, relying on the Home Owner Association’s policy solely, for your Hazard Insurance needs, may not be good enough. In fact, it may not cover you at all for most of your needs, even if it once did.

A major change occurred after 9-11. The Insurance Industry, having paid out some major claims, raised their prices on HOA Insurance policies, more-so than in some other areas. In order to keep costs down and monthly condo fees stable, many Home Owner Associations drastically increased the deductible amount in the insurance policy. So you may not be as protected as you think, or even as you once were. Deductibles that were once commonly $1,000 per claim, climbed first to $2,500, then to $5,000 and in some cases as high as $10,000.

Real Estate Agents should not be telling you “You don’t need Hazard Insurance because the HOA takes care of that”. If you live in a third floor condo and stuff your washer with too many clothes and go to work and it overflows down to the condo below you, are you covered by the HOA policy? Or will you have to pay the downstairs neighbor for the damage out of your pocket? If your hot water tank blows and floods not only the downstairs neighbor, but your two next door neighbors, and the damage is $8,000 and the deductible on the HOA policy is $10,000, where does that leave you?

Here’s what you should do. Get the current “Dec” page for the HOA policy. You should be getting this annually, though you probably throw it away or stick it in a drawer. It looks like a form with lots of blocks and numbers on it and should say something like “Declaration of Insurance” (commonly known as “Dec (deck) Page”. Take that page to your insurance agent, or contact the company who provides the HOA insurance, and ask for a quote for a “supplemental policy” that covers you for the things the HOA does not cover and reduces the deductible. Get quotes for a $500 deductible and a $1,000 deductible.

Even if your Condo Association has a low deductible, you should have a supplemental policy to cover your belongings and your own negligence items, like overflowing washing machines.

While you may not need anything besides the HOA Dec Page to close escrow, that does not mean you do not need your own Hazard Insurance Policy just because it is not an escrow requirement. It never did, really. But today it is even more likely to be grossly insufficient than it was in years past.

If you are on the Board of Directors of a Home Owner Association, the Board should send a notice to owners regarding the increase in the deductible amount, along with a recommendation that they all go out and obtain their own supplemental policies. If everyone has a supplemental policy, the HOA is less at risk for claims and lawsuits. Reducing risk helps everyone keep their condo fees down. The supplemental policies of the owners should cover small claims, and the HOA Policy should be used only for fires or major incidents that affect more than just a few owners. One person’s claim on the HOA policy, instead of their own policy, increases everyone’s costs and dues.

Moving away from relying solely on the HOA policy, is in everyone’s best interest. If too many claims are filed against the HOA Policy and the insurance company “drops” you, you being the entire Association, everyone suffers.

ZIP, Zillow and ZAP – Part 2 of ?

OK. Everyone seems to get what ZAP is so far. Though many don’t see how it cuts your ability to benefit as a buyer with regard to commission issues. If the $9,000 on the table turns into $7,000, the agent’s gonna want to keep it all. If they are willing to pay that $2,000 to the lead generator, then why wouldn’t they agree to buy something for you with it? Same money, isn’t it? But once it’s gone…it’s gone. Either you have it, or the lead generator has it…your choice.

Darren points out, “I would think a well established (real estate agent) that doesn’t need to market themselves would also be reluctant to negotiate with you.” Joe says, “It sounds like you are describing a scenario where buyers can expect an agent to pay them some of the commish back in the form of washers and dryers, inspection fixes etc…”agent that feels less able to lavish unannounced gifts on buyers.”

The most common form of “negotiating” the buyer agent fee is for the agent to use some of the commission to pay for something for the buyer. It is generally not a direct negotiation, because the seller is paying the buyer agent, not the buyer. So the agent takes some of the commission that the seller is paying to the buyer agent and buys something with it for the buyer. As an example, a common thing the agent may buy that I am sure you have seen, is a home warranty. That can be purchased by the seller’s agent from his part of the fee (it will be a rider on the sign if that is the case) or it can be purchased for the buyer by the buyer agent from her portion of the fee.

Are you with me so far?

There are laws against handing money to the buyer. So you have to pay closing costs, or pay for repairs from the home inspection or include a washer and dryer in the sale and pay for it. It’s not about “lavish gifts”. The only way to negotiate a commission (paid by the seller) is to “gift” it to the buyer in the form of a “thing”. Even then, the lender has to approve that gift, or you have to be creative, so the agent cannot promise it up front. The lender will only allow so much of this to happen. If you are a cash buyer this is not the case.

Since the commission is in the loan, the thing that gets paid with it has to be in the house or in the purchase costs and the lender has to know about it and approve it, otherwise it is lender fraud and we all go to jail.

I’m going to stop here, because I sense from your comments so far that you may have questions on this. How do you think you get to negotiate the buyer agent fee? Did you think you could be handed a check? I’m curious…though not yellow, obviously.

Five more comments and we’re on again. I need to know what you are thinking to know how to proceed. I’m not the “Word Nazi” 🙂

Oh, Steph! ZIP is Zip Realty.

You can, by the way, reduce the purchase price of the house by the negotiated amount, but then you need to get the seller to sign it and sometimes they won’t. It is not as unilateral as paying for something with it. I commonly fix things in the house that come up in the home inspection that aren’t big things that the seller will do. Then the lender doesn’t need to see the repairs needed, which helps the buyer get his loan and it is not lender fraud because the repairs are fixed at closing and the money did go into the house in case the lender needs to foreclose. The value is in there. If you take that money and go to Hawaii…well then the lender will have a problem as all of the monies loaned and the downpayment need to be in that house at closing. There’s a huge law on this that goes on and on. I’m trying to keep it simple.

We have so many laws and rules and fines, you have no idea. Licensing laws, mls rules and they can fine you $5,000 a pop if you break them, RESPA Federal rules. There is no end to them and if you stacked them all up they would hit the ceiling.

I’m just trying to give you the practical application. Everything has to be shown on the final closing sheet and the closing sheet will not allow a line that says “I handed the buyer a check after closing so he and his wife could go to Bermuda.” LOL Of course most of these laws were written before buyers had agents…that’s part of the problem.

The seller negotiates the fee…no problem there. But the buyer negotiating the fee that the seller set up front…a little more confusing. Hopefully it’s worth understanding. If not…then don’t comment and I’ll stop here.

ZIP, Zillow and ZAP – Part 1 of ?

OK, let’s “Get Real” for a minute.

On the one hand we have the consumer who wants what they need, no more; no less, for a price that seems reasonable.

Now, let’s look at the “service providers”, both as you know them, and as I know them as an insider. From an insider’s perspective there are three tiers of “service providers”. The traditional full service model, the “discounted” full service model and the stripped down to “you are mostly on your own” model. None of these are “good” or “bad” in and of themselves. It’s more a matter of what is good or bad for you, depending on your skills. But that’s for another day. Just wanted you to know that each of these is good for someone. Only question is which is right for you.

Technology has added a fourth option that is not a “model” in the “service provider” sense, but one that many consumers at present are opting for, which I will call ZAP.

I have to use analogies because I am somewhat limited by my insider position in discussing commissions and companies. Straight shooter that I am, being a little vague is not my normal modus operandi, so bear with me. Hopefully my descriptions and analogies will be obvious enough for you to follow. If not, you can ask questions in your comments or by email.

Let’s discuss and eliminate the ZAP option first, since it is not a “service provider”, but a place where many consumers get trapped without knowing that they are getting ZAPPED. It is worth mentioning here that ZIP is not a ZAP. Now back to ZAPs. The most obvious ZAPs have a button that says “Find a Realtor”, or something of that nature. When you hit that button to find a Buyer’s Agent or Seller’s Agent you are decreasing your ability to negotiate the commission, without knowing it. The technology whizzes who create these websites take a portion of the commission, without disclosing that to you the consumer. They do not provide a service to you, the consumer. They provide a service , for a fee, to the agent who is a “participant” at a cost. There are many of these and we call them “lead generating” sites, “bottom feeders” or “troll” sites.

Let’s take a specific example of how these work, and there are many of these available to you. Let’s say you are a buyer, rather than a seller, of real estate. You go to look at property on one of these sites, which is how they reel you in. You then hit the “I need a Buyer’s Agent” button and are connected with an agent. Let’s say based on the price of the house you will eventually purchase, that the commission will be $9,000 as pre-set by the seller of that house when he listed it for sale in the mls. When you connect with the agent by hitting that button, you have generally spent in that process of merely hitting a button on the website, the money you could have negotiated toward your closing costs or repairs or against the purchase price.

The agent who “gets you” has paid for you. He pays for you out of the $9,000 on the table in your “transaction”. Sometimes he pays it up front in a monthly cost of say $1,000 a month. So if it took three months for that agent to “get you ” (“the lead”), he has paid $3,000 for you. When you try to negotiate something for you from the $9,000, the agent has already given $3,000 to the 3rd party ZAP company, and so you get zapped, as your ability to negotiate has been diminished or entirely eliminated without your knowledge.

Some other sites are not “pay as you go” for the agent, but “pay as you close”. In that case the agent will owe the ZAP a percentage of the commission, if and when you close escrow. Again, the monies you may have been able to negotiate with your agent have been sucked up in advance without your knowledge.

Some of these sites operate like the one sided mirror glass of an interrogation room that you see on shows like Law and Order and the like. I find these lead generating “Big Brother” website options to be exceptionally creepy, but hey, that’s technology at its “best”, I guess. When you sign up to the site to view and save property, you are assigned to an agent in the queue without regard to whether or not it is a good match. Those who have paid in to “look at you look at property”, get the leads kind of like the way a lottery ball pops up to the top and gets “pulled”. I’m trying to give you the facts without editorializing, but it’s difficult for me as I find these sites intrusive and deceptive.

OK, back to facts. The agent who “wins you in the lottery” of the moment, gets to see everything you are doing from the inside without your knowing he is watching you. He can see what properties you are viewing. He can see which ones you are saving vs. ones you are trashing, he can “get inside your head” a bit. He gets all of the info you have put in to register for the site. You then get an email from him, and maybe a phone call, saying “Would you like to go see X property”? You are dumbfounded and amazed and think he is absolutely clairvoyant! Or maybe you DO want to see that property and don’t think about how he “guessed” you might want to go see that property and you just go see that property without a second thought.

LOL OK, I can’t stop editorializing, can I? Don’t you find this just absolutely creepy? Maybe it’s me. I’ll stop here for today and will continue after some of you comment on this so far. Maybe it’s just me. What do you think? I’d like to hear from you before I go any further. After 5 comments I will go to Part 2 of ?

As to the Title of this entry, let’s review. We are mostly talking about ZAPs that ZAP you, the buyer consumer. ZIP is NOT a ZAP. While you all sit at the edge of your seats awaiting Zillow and it’s wonders, we’all (the insiders for lack of a better term) are sitting back expecting another exploitative ZAP type. Of course “No one knows, but the Shadow”, but at least know what to look for when it comes. My expectation is that it will not give you what you want. That being “What you need, no more; no less, at a reasonable cost” as noted in the second sentence of this entry above. (Someone let me know if that IS what the consumer wants, please. Thanks.)

But it will WOW you with it’s technology, reel you in, and then sell you off to the highest bidder. No one knows yet, but if you hear anything new about it let me know and I will decipher the code.

Five comments from YOU, the reader, and then we will move to the actual means a buyer has to negotiate their commission, unless they have already “shot themselves in the foot” by being totally or partially ZAPPED without their knowledge, from the ability to negotiate.

Have a good day! Look forward to hearing from you!

Ardell

Kirkland Real Estate

I find in my daily chats with people, that the public’s perception of Kirkland Real Estate is a far cry from its reality. So this morning, with one eye open drinking my coffee, I put together some stats for you to bring this point home. I think you will be surprised by this piece I will call “perception vs. reality” which also points out the “housing bubble” area of Kirkland.

For the purpose of these numbers, I have used the mls and not the tax records.

People ask me all of the time in passing, at parties, etc…”How can anyone afford to live in Kirkland?” General perception being that real estate prices in Kirkland are all over a million dollars. That is greatly because the consumer looks at what is for sale. Reality is in what has sold, not what is for sale. We call “for sale” that which has not sold and not particularly reflective of the marketplace.

We will be using an economic forecasting tool called the Rate of Absorption, which is further described in my blog.

Of the 2,042 properties sold in Kirkland (PO) in 2005, only 92, less than 5%, sold over a million dollars.

  • 616 (30%) sold for less than $300,000
  • 856 (42%) sold between $301,000 and $500,000
  • 349 (17%) sold between $501,000 and $750,000
  • 129 (6%) sold from $751,000 to a million dollars
  • Only 30 properties sold between a million and $1.2 million
  • Only 14 properties sold from $1.2 million to $1.3 million
  • And 48 properties sold higher than $1.3 million in 2005

Many people think that Kirkland is the town for millionaires. That is because they look at what is for sale creating this “perception vs. reality” issue. Only 2% of homes sold in Kirkland last year sold for $1.3 million or more BUT a whopping 26% of the homes currently for sale are priced over $1.3 million.

Now let’s get to rate of absorption before my client comes to my house to sign an offer on his way to work.

616 properties sold in 2005 under $300,000. 56 properties on market are priced under $300,000. That’s about a one month supply. If it takes a year to sell 616, it should take a month to sell 56.

856 properties sold in 2005 from $301,000 to $500,000. 63 properties are for sale in that range. That’s slightly less than a one month supply.

349 homes sold in 2005 between $501,000 and $750,000. 62 properties are for sale in that range. At a rate of 29 homes sold in a month, it will take about two months to sell 62 (two months supply on market).

Here’s where it gets very interesting (to me anyway).

While only 129 homes sold last year between $751,000 and a million dollars, there are currently 47 for sale. That’s a 4-5 month supply carrying over from last year. Add that to people who list their homes in the next 4-5 months and you have an oversupply.

While only 11 homes sold last year between a million and $1.2 million, there are currently 30 for sale. Let’s call that a 3 month supply.

21 sold from $$1.2 to $1.3 million and 14 are for sale that’s about an 8 month supply coming out the gate into the new year.

And now for the Piece de resistance! !! (apologies to the French)

While only 48 properties sold over $1.3 million…there are currently NINETY (90) N I N E T Y!! for sale!!! That is almost a TWO YEAR supply! I’m not shouting at you, but I find that incredible. Next they’ll be saying the bubble is bursting because there is pressure on this high end! Oh yeah, they already said that just yesterday in the King County Journal.

Yesterday one of my agents posed this question. Her client was buying a condo for $142,500 and was worried about “the bubble bursting”. I have a client today buying a condo for $99,900. Is HIS bubble going to burst? Of course not. Unless you are up in the air in “bubble territory” over a million dollars, you don’t have to worry about the air getting too thin.

Have a good day! If you would like me to find the bubble range in your neighborhood, just ask as a comment, or email me. While Dustin has “dubbed” me “the Kirkland Specialist”, I have actually sold more property outside of Kirkland than in it, at present. I have sold real estate in PA, NJ, FL, Sacramento and L.A. (kind of two states) Seattle and Eastside. So ask any question you like, about any place you like.