Category Archives: Investing

The Housing Rescue Bill

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Today President Bush signed a housing “rescue” bill HR 3221.  I’m really still absorbing all of this (I think it’s taking me a bit longer after my trip to Inman Connect).   Here are a few quick pointers:

The FHA risked base mortgage insurance pricing (which I’m in favor of) that was to be effective last week is now postponed until September 30, 2009.   FHA can now save some borrowers in trouble with their mortgage if their existing lender will forgive the underlying debt to 85% 90% of the current value of the home.   Gee…risked based MIP might be handy in these cases.

Also with FHA, Seller paid down payment assistance programs are will be gone and the minimum down payment for an FHA insured loan will be 3.5% (which is a very small increase) beginning October 1, 2008.

Jumbo FHA and Jumbo Conforming loan limits will be reduced from the current 125% of median home value to 115% of the median home value beginning January 1, 2009.   As I mentioned, your days of a loan amount of $567,500 are numbered.   The new conforming/FHA jumbo limit may be closer to $520,000.  

First time homebuyers (someone who has not had interested in a property for the past 3 years) are eligible to receive a tax credit…however, it’s really an interest free loan to be paid back over 15 years or from the proceeds when the home is sold (which ever comes first).  This is available only for homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009.  Income restrictions do apply.   For more information, check out this website.   

Last but not least (and I’m sure I’m missing stuff) Fannie and Freddie have a new regulator: The Federal Finance Housing Agency aka FHFA.   This from James B. Lockhart:

“Today President Bush signed the ‘Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.’ I thank President Bush and Secretary Paulson for their leadership in making government sponsored enterprise (GSE) regulatory reform a reality.

The Act creates a world-class, empowered regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), with all the authorities necessary to oversee vital components of our country’s secondary mortgage markets — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks — at a very challenging time.  As Director of the new agency I look forward to working with the combined Federal Housing Finance Board (FHFB), Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHEO) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) GSE Mission teams and with other regulators to ensure the safety and soundness of the 14 housing related GSEs and the stability of the nation’s housing finance system.

For more than two years as Director of OFHEO I have worked to help create FHFA so that this new GSE regulator has far greater authorities than its predecessors.  As Director of FHFA, I commit that we will use these authorities to ensure that the housing GSEs provide stability and liquidity to the mortgage market, support affordable housing and operate safely and soundly.”

Too much to write about in detail for one post…just wanted to throw you some bits.

Who Should Get Out Of The Real Estate Business?

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Dustin, Jillayne, Rhonda, Galen and I were all in San Francisco for a few days for The Inman Connect Conference.  One of the most profound and spot on statements I heard at the Conference was “If you do not have a listing, right now, in THIS market (top-heavy with inventory)…turn in your license!”. Sorry I can’t remember who said it.  In fact I think it was a woman in the audience and not on one of the panels.  But how TRUE is THAT!  With inventory at all time highs, can you say you are a real estate agent if you have NO listings?! I thought that was a punch in the glass jaw to some of the agents milling around the conference.

The highlight of my trip was when Pete Flint of Trulia came over to me at the Better Homes and Gardens Soiree and handed me his card.  He recognized me from Trulia Voices 🙂  I gained a huge respect for him given our conversation.  We were talking about Trulia Voices vs. Zillow Q & A, and I was impressed with his sincere level of interest in opinions on the subject. Trulia had the best party, BTW.  A funny in the Trulia Voices link up there.  One of the agents immediately gave my response a “thumbs down”, while at the same time the person who asked the question voted it as Best Answer.  Oh well, you can’t please everyone.

I still feel guilty about keeping Marc Davison of 1000 Watt Blog up so late that he missed his Panel Moderation the next morning.  Brian Boero filled in for him. Officially the reason for his missing the panel was related to his recuperation of severed finger.  But I can’t help but feel that had I let him get a little more sleep the night before, he might have made it.  Yet, I can’t say I’m sorry for detaining him for so long…I just didn’t want to let him go.  He’s an amazing person.

I’m hoping Inman or Sellsius will post a video of the panel I was on, moderated by Joe Ferrara.  I was a little nervous about being on a panel with THREE attorneys!  Russ Cofano, Joe Ferrara the moderator and the woman from NAR. I was told afterward that something I said was Twittered into cyberspace instantaneously. Not sure what it was…I wasn’t Twittering on my iPhone while speaking on the panel. I got visibly annoyed with Todd Carpenter during the discussion (sorry Todd). The Panel was on “How Not To Get Sued” as a blogger.  Todd was basically saying to be nice and avoid controversial topics.  But Russ and I had a really nice conversation and rapport on stage. (No Tim, no Punch and Judy show.)

I was the only one in the room that clapped for Frank Llosa on “The Future of the MLS” panel when he spoke of the button next to the Listing Agent info that explains why, as a buyer, you might not want to call the Listing Agent. Here’s a quote from Frank’s website that will give you an idea of why I like him ”

“TRUST ME, I’M A REALTOR” Yeah Right! When was the last time a REALTOR talked you OUT of buying a house or condo?…”

The big “visual event” of the trade show was a new Franchise called “BUG Realty”. “At Bug!…We are the “no hype,

The Housing Crisis is Like Hurricane Katrina

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There were four back-to-back panel sessions on the topic of Foreclosures at Real Estate Connect this morning. Here are some sound bites and quotes.

There are 25,000 homes per MONTH in California that are going back to the lender.  This is going to create a glut of housing inventory for many months into the forseeable future.  The percentage of loan modifications that are re-defaulting and going into foreclosure is high.  Estimates are 40% or higher.

In Cali, the very low end price range REO homes are now selling to long term investors who are are able to put a renter in that house and make their cash flow goals. 

There are an estimated 400,000 people living in their homes for free in California right now.  Lenders are stalling the foreclosure process because there simply is not enough people working in the loss mitigation departments to process all the paperwork.

There is a huge problem nationwide with listing agents who are taking short sale listings and have no clue on how to help the homeowner navigate through the short sale process.

Quote: “This [the housing crisis] is like Hurricane Katrina.”

Question to the panelists: How can consumers who are facing foreclosure help themselves?
Answer from Frances Flynn Thorsen, “Stay away from Realtors.” 

Jillayne here. That answer brought forth many laughs and suprised blurts of shock.  I personally think this took quite a lot of moxie to say in a room filled with Realtors. The point Frances was trying to make was that not all homeowners who are in default want to sell their home!  When real estate agents stick with only a single mindset that selling is the ONLY option, they are doing a grave disservice to their clients.  Frances said it is imperative that agents connect homeowners with either Acorn or NACA or some other HUD-approved Housing Counseling Agency that can effectively negotiate with the lender, and to make sure the homeowner receives legal counsel from attorneys who specialize in consumer protection law, which is something they can find at NACA. 

There are very few loan modifications being granted if the homeowner is seriously underwater. The example given was $2,000 in monthly income and $11,000 in monthly debts.  No loan mod for that consumer because the chances of re-defaulting are way too high.  This homeowner may be better served through the foreclosure process.

The loan modifications that are granted are often done by lowering the interest rate on the note to say, 3% for a fixed period of time such as three years, but with NO principal reduction. 

Jillayne again.  I say this practice may lead to a build up of shadow inventory that could end up hitting the market in 2011 and further drawing out the housing recession into 2012.

Short sales in Florida are a complete waste of time.  Buyers in Florida are looking at sellers with equity or REOs ONLY.  Banks are only now starting to dump their REOs by lowering the prices in order to get them off their boooks.

Florida should WISH FOR another Florida bank failure because then the other banks will become extremely nervous about the bank regulators poking around and will begin to get real with dropping the prices on REOs in order to clear out their inventory, especially the closer we get to the end of a quarter.

“Real estate agents have a moral and fiduciary duty to our clients.  We have a duty to try and maintain values.  We should be encouraging sellers to help hold the value by offering to “buy down” the interest rate instead of lowering the sales price.”

Jillayne here again.  That quote came from LJ Jennings, a real estate broker/owner.  I’m not so sure that holding prices artificially high could pass a fiduciary test.  This may NOT be in the client’s best interest.

VERY interesting insight from a data analyst. She said some companies would rather stick with data that their analysts have been using INSTEAD OF showing NEW data to their end users….because then their existing analysts would be proven wrong and the company doesn’t want to deal with that. 

Take aways:

  • Banks will begin to “throttle out” their inventory quarter to quarter,
  • A lot more big pools of scratch and dent (loans with problems) loans will start to be sold off in bulk to investors
  • Lenders will slow down the default process for due diligence and accounting reasons
  • In the second have of 2008, 100 billion (correction: dollars) in loans will reset.  If ONLY 13% default, this is a huge number of homes that will impact inventory levels for the years to follow.
  • Hundreds of thousands of Alt A loans will reset in 2009.
  • Foreclosure relief bill is a little too late.  Our problem right now is that lenders are afraid to lend on a declining asset and buyers are afraid to buy.  The bill does more to shore up confidence in Fannie and Freddie than anything else.
  • There ARE options for a homeowner in default who does not want to sell.
  • Foreclosure is only a temporary part of a person’s life.  Life goes on.
  • Loan modifications and short sales are being done faster through banks that have a history of predatory lending (this is a concept I’ve been teaching for 8 years now.)

I have an entire set of notes from the attorney who spoke on the liability issues agents face when listing REO homes. I’ll have to do a separate blog article on that for you. 

Join me for a Housing Market Conversation with Lawrence Yun

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I don’t normally cross-post between 4realz.net and Rain City Guide, but tomorrow I’m having a conversation with the Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS that I think will interest many people in the Rain City Guide community.   We’re going to be talking about the effect that the recent news associated with the FDIC bailing out IndyMac and the Treasuring providing support to Freddie/Fannie will have on the housing market.

I fully expect this radio show to be interesting, lively and informative and welcome you to join.   As with Rain City Radio, there’ll be an associated chat, and I’ll be picking out questions from the chat room.   Please consider joining us!

Mr Monk Buys a House

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Mr Monk

Mr. Monk returns to TV with a premiere episode this Friday, July 18th. This one will be near a dear to our hearts. He’s going to buy a house! That’s right. Here is your most OCD client in a life-imitates-art drama.

When his new neighbor plays his music too loud, Monk decides it’s time to move. He makes the big leap and buys a house that turns into a money pit, reminiscent of the 1986 movie that we agents like to give to first-time buyers who think they are ready for a fixer-upper. Things continue to challenge Adrian when he hires the handyman from hell who is determined to rip up the entire house. Brad Garrett form Everybody Loves Raymond guest stars.

Mr Monk Buys a House - trailer
Episode Trailer

Most of us agents have had clients like this to some degree and I’m sure there will be a number of been-there-experienced-that moments. I just wanted to make sure those who didn’t know have a chance to TiVo or whatever to see it.

The First in a Series of Fannie and Freddie Bailouts

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The rumors floated on Friday regarding Fannie and Freddie turned out to be true.  This first bailout proposal, released a few hours ago, has three parts.  I say “first” because there is no way that this is going to be enough to save what’s headed our way nor will this be the only time the government will need to “bailout” F&F.

The U.S. Treasury plans to seek approval for a temporary increase in the line of credit granted to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They will also seek authority to buy equity in either company, and the Federal Reserve voted to allow the New York Fed to loan F&F money, if needed, giving F&F access to the Federal Reserve’s discount window.

The Wall Street Journal says the U.S. Treasury and The Federal Reserve are doing this mainly to boost confidence in F&F, not necessarily because any of this is needed, which to me seems to be a flat out lie.

The weekend move means that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has been steadily accumulating authority as the U.S. grapples with the financial crisis, will have even more power. The Treasury envisions the Fed working with the mortgage giants’ regulator to help prevent situations that could be a risk for the entire financial system. The move builds on Treasury’s broader goal of remaking financial regulation to give the Fed broader influence over financial-market stability.

I’m not sure if we’re suppose to be happy or scared at the thought of Ben Bernanke accumulating more power.  Maybe what’s really going on is some preemptive planning due to known or unknown possibilities that tomorrow’s auction of Freddie Mac debt doesn’t go well.

The Sunday move was designed in part to head off fears about Monday’s auction of Freddie Mac notes. While small, the planned sale had assumed an outsized importance as a test of investor confidence. Freddie should be able to find buyers for its three- and six-month notes, market analysts said. But there is a chance that some financial institutions and investors may demand higher-then-usual yields.

Similar Freddie and Fannie notes that are currently outstanding yield around 2.5%. If weak demand for Freddie’s auction leads to sharply higher yields on the new notes, that could trigger a selloff across a wide range of debt issued by the companies, some analysts said. But most said such a scenario is unlikely.

I’ve been glued to the web, the radio, and my phone since Friday evening reading, listening, and talking about this with friends and colleagues. If the federal government choses to provide (the implied) government backing for bondholders, then the United States increases our national debt by 5 trillion dollars which would have a profoundly negative impact on the value of the dollar and potentially bankrupting the U. S. economy. If the federal government chooses to do nothing and F&F are forced to mark their portfolio closer to market value and sell off assets to accumulate capital, then the true value of what’s in the bag becomes known. The secret will be out and now nobody will be interested in buying our Residential Mortgage Backed Securities, the market will know the true value of the loans currently being held by banks all over the U.S., mortgage lending slows way down, interest rates go way up, and the housing market goes cliff diving.

It seems to me that with this first bailout proposal (I am preparing for more bailouts as should you) everything is just going to be delayed as long as possible, taking us down further into a deeper recession step-by-step.

This bailout proposal is not enough. We have only just begun to see foreclosures rise. We still have the rest of 2008 to get through, when another round of pay option ARMS originated in 2006 begins to adjust, and through 2009 when the ARMs originated in 2007 adjust. Defaults and foreclosures are far from over.

There was a guy who predicted the demise of Fannie and Freddie back in 2006.  His proposal is that we nationalize Fannie and Freddie, quit pretending that they’re a private company, and restructure the debt, thereby forcing the bondholders to take a haircut.

Sniglet asks an interesting question (comment 123): “So what happens to the shareholders? Do any of these plans ensure that there is no dilution of equity if any form of bail-out were to occur? If the GSE shareholders aren’t protected then we could see a complete abandonment of the financial system by investors. Who will want to buy shares in financial firms if the government isn’t going to ensure their investments remain safe?”

From everything I’ve read over the weekend, the government likely will not protect shareholder equity.  Whether or not they should is up for debate.

One more story for the Bellevue mortgage fraud files

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The Seattle Times is reporting tonight that a federal indictment has been issued for a Bellevue loan officer and his assistant. 

A former loan officer at a Bellevue mortgage company and his assistant have been indicted on a charge of conspiracy to commit wire fraud in a scheme that prosecutors say involved using straw buyers to purchase dozens of homes at inflated prices and siphoning off the extra cash for their own use.

Christopher Brooks and Amani Moss allegedly obtained more than $27 million in fraudulent loans for the purchase of at least 54 homes beginning in 2005, according to an indictment unsealed this morning.

The charges allege that they recruited straw buyers, who would allow the men to falsify loan papers for them. At the same time, Brooks and Moss would use a realtor, who is identified in the indictment by the initials “L.A.,” to find home sellers who were willing to overstate the purchase price of their homes. The straw buyers were paid between $7,000 and $10,000 for each transaction, the indictment says.

Brooks, who worked for America Mortgage in Bellevue, would then prepare and submit the false loan papers to several lenders in the area, according to court papers.

The difference between the inflated price and the actual purchase price of the home ranged from $30,000 to $778,000 per home, and the charges allege that money was funneled through a business owned by Moss, Peachtree Development, and into their pockets..

Home sellers, if your home is not selling and someone from our industry approaches you with an idea to take your home off the market and relist at a much, much higher price, please turn the person in to his or her regulator. If you are not sure who the regulator is, contact one of us and we can point you in the right direction.

The DFI Licensee database shows America Mortgage in Bellevue as a licensed mortgage broker. I wonder how many of these loans went into early payment default and how many the broker was asked to buy back from the lender.

In order to commit fraud at this level, the Realtor and mortgage broker would have had some help from an appraiser as well as an escrow closer.

Indymac Bank Taken Over by the FDIC

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The second largest bank failure in the history of the U.S. means about 1 billion in lost deposits held by 10,000 customers as reported by CNN Money. Accordingly, the Indymac website has a new look.  The LA Times has pictures of customers lining up outside the bank, looking inside and here’s a picture of employees loading up their car with brown cardboard boxes.

Just before their demise, Indymac was offering high rates for their Certificates of Deposit.  The LA Times asks an interesting question:  “Should a money-losing financial institution be permitted to pay well-above-market deposit rates under the protective umbrella of federal deposit insurance?  For a six-month CD with a $5,000 minimum deposit, IndyMac’s website [on Wednesday, July 9th] was offering an annualized yield of 4.1% as an online “special.”

I wonder what will happen to the severance packages offered to the 3800 workers who lost their job this past Monday?

I wonder which banks (federal or state chartered) are offering high, high rates on deposits today?

 

 

The Fate of Fannie and Freddie

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac opened trading at record lows due to rumors about a possible bail out.  I’m writing this waiting to hear an announcement from Treasury Secretary Paulsen….

If you are in a transaction at this time and your mortgage fits within the FHA loan limits ($567,500 for King, Pierce and Snohomish County), I recommend considering FHA as a back up plan.  In fact, I’ve realized yesterday that all of my loans in process are currently FHA.   ,

If you are considering buying or refinancing a home and are not yet in transaction, I highly recommend making sure that your Loan Originator is able to provide FHA financing.   I recommend asking your Loan Officer (in writing-using email):

  • Are they approved to provide FHA financing?
  • How long has their company provided FHA financing?
  • How long has the LO done FHA loans?
  • Verify on HUD’s website that the mortgage company is indeed approved with HUD.  This list will also show you how long a company has been approved by HUD.

What will the Fannie and Freddie look like after if the Gov steps in?

If you look at FHA, you know that HUD is very pro-homeownership.   We may see low down programs like Flex 97 stick around–it’s very similar to FHA with the minimum 3% down.

Mortgage rates will probably increase dramatically since we will no longer have a private sector.  It will all be government controlled.

I’m also wondering if the governement would utilize private mortgage insurance companies or if they will utilize something similar FHA’s mortgage insurance?

Stay tuned…this is not over.

Update 7:53 am:  Here is Treasury Secretary Paulsen’s statement (from Market Watch):

Here is Paulsen’s statement (from Market Watch):

“Today our primary focus is supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form as they carry out their important mission.

“We appreciate Congress’ important efforts to complete legislation that will help promote confidence in these companies. We are maintaining a dialogue with regulators and with the companies. OFHEO will continue to work with the companies as they take the steps necessary to allow them to continue to perform their important public mission.”

Update 2:51 p.m.  I just received this Press Release from OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight):

Statement of OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart

“I congratulate and thank Chairman Dodd, Ranking Member Shelby and the Senate for passing a sound and comprehensive GSE regulatory reform bill.  This bill should help restore confidence in the housing markets by creating, on passage, a new, stronger regulator with all the necessary tools to oversee Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks.  I am hopeful the House will act quickly and the bill will soon be enacted into law.

With this very turbulent market it is important to strengthen the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and combine it with the regulator of the Federal Home Loan Banks as soon as possible as all of the GSEs are being asked to do more and more to support the mortgage market.”