Tag Archives: Buyer-Information

Agents: Are you prepared?

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[photopress:richard_williams_mining.jpg,thumb,alignright]In response to my post highlighting how great the technology behind Trulia is, I received some emails from real estate agents who completely disagreed with me, although only one agent, John Lockwood , took the initiative to responded on the record). Thank you John! I’m going to pick on your comments in this post only because you had the willingness to state a lot of agent’s fears publicly… With that said, I continue to welcome your feedback!

Hoarding the data? That’s a good one. Have you seen my Sacramento Search Page — to name just one place where I’m not hoarding it? I make my living publishing the data, and I’m licensed to make my living publishing it.

John, I clicked on your search site the other day for the first time, and I felt like I’d seen the site a million times before. The search is bad and does not serve your clients well. Sure you’ve published the homes that are for sale, but you haven’t added anything of value that I couldn’t get from 1000 other real estate sites in Sacramento. You haven’t taken it to the next step and provided anything particularly useful to your potential clients. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the goal of your search site is to tease your potential clients so that they will call on you to find out whether or not a particular home will work for them. And I don’t blame you for any of this because the coding required to build a more interactive site that would really serve your clients is very tricky. In reality, you are running on a business model that has been very successful and easily replicated all over the country.

I want a real estate search site that provides more useful information? I want recommendations. I want to know if the home is a good value. I want to know if the neighborhood is appropriate for me. You’re website provides none of that… and I’m not a good enough coder myself to implement any of these improvements. I think the search site that you offer lacks so much consumer friendliness, that I don’t even bother putting a link to my version of it on this site’s sidebar. Making interactive websites that improve with user experience is what gets the self-proclaimed web geeks all excited and sure that Trulia represents the first example of real estate entering the next version of the web.

[photopress:polina_vasily_stalin.jpg,full,alignleft]While the times are changing in the real estate industry, I think the majority of people WILL always want some expert advice before buying a home. It is not like buying a plane ticket, and consequently, the internet will not replace real estate agents in the same way it has replace travel agents. A home is simply too big of a purchase for most people to feel comfortable making it over the internet.

Onto another of your points, I wish I could say that I had more respect for a real estate license, but I don’t. (Considering you are from California, you might be interested to know that I’m licensed to practice traffic engineering in your state.) Recently, I decided it might be useful for me to have a real estate license, so I spent $250 and took an on-line course. It was the “60-hour” course that is required before you can take the Washington state exam. It was so easy, I doubt I spent 30 hours in total reading through their material and answering the multiple-choice questions. For comparison, I had to get a four-year degree and spend month’s studying before I was ready to take the all-day traffic engineering test. For me, all a real estate license means is that the person meets a minimal level of competency. It is all too common to find a licensed real estate agent who is simply not knowledgeable enough to do a good job. You have to search much harder to find a licensed lawyer, doctor, or engineer who simply cannot do their job.

Reading through the rest of John’s comments, I only have one general “big picture” comment. Nobody owes real estate agents anything, least of all their clients. That is an important enough comment to repeat in a different form. Home buyers and sellers do not owe real estate agents anything. Maybe it’s just the engineer in me that hates inefficiencies, but if someone else can provide a tool that makes home buyers and sellers better off, it is the real estate agents that need to adapt. Buyers and sellers should not have to adapt to an inefficient system designed by real estate agents for the benefit of real estate agents.

[photopress:hurley_patterson_cousins.jpg,thumb,alignright]So where does this leave us…

It won’t take long for the industry to see some major changes. It may be through Trulia and their opt-in database. It may be from some type of Craigslist on steroids (think Google Classifieds). It may be the product of a dream from Rich Barton or Barry Dillar. Whatever the solution is, it is being created right now and it will provide huge benefits to home buyers and sellers. All this is happening while NAR still has it’s head in the sand and is worrying about whether or not discount brokers can get access to MLS listings…

Does this mean that every real estate agent is going to be out of a job in a year? No way! There are still so many people that require the expert handholding of a well-informed agent. However, it does bring up some interesting questions for real estate agents who rely on the internet to get clients:

Are you preparing for a time when everyone will have access to better information? How? Are you just planning to fight these changes? Most importantly, do you have a web strategy to take advantage of these changes?

More In-depth Sale Price vs List Price Analysis

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Me and my sistersIf you were following the comments from my post from yesterday, I said I would follow up with another stab at diving into how the sales prices versus listing price changes over time. Seeing as how it is already getting late (and I’m tired!), I’m going to stop trying to make sense out of the numbers and present what I’ve found so far.

However, before I go any further, I’m going to rant at my fellow real estate agents! For the sake of all of us who actually care about data, please learn to double check your work before submitting listing information to the MLS! I spent more time cleaning up the database due to lazy real estate agents then I did actually creating the charts! Here are some things to look out for (but this list is by no means exhaustive): (1) Spelling: Fremont is spelled with only one “e”, (2) Location: South Lake Union is not a neighborhood located within Ballard and (3)Price: your home that sold for $345,000 probably should not have been listed for $34,500,000.

With that rant out of the way, I thought I would also mention that I’m not the only one surprised by housing numbers today… Hot Property had an article where Amey Stone says reading NAR’s press releases on sales levels “is starting to be a bit of a yawn — sales weren’t quite at record levels, but darn near close to it.” Unless you get tickled by trends and statistics, expect to sleep through the rest of this post…

When I look at the entire Ballard Area as defined by the MLS (this is a huge area that includes places like Greenlake, Blue Ridge, Wallingford, Fremont, Sunset Hill etc). We see the same seasonal trends over the past two years that I identified yesterday. But when we go back another season, the trend becomes much less pronounced.

Adjusted vs Original List Price Chart

Here are the things I found most interesting about the chart:

  1. The seasonal variation is much less pronounced in previous years
  2. There has been a steady trend up wards where the sale price is greater than the listing price
  3. In terms of trends, it didn’t really matter whether I used the original list price or the adjusted list price.
  4. The huge drop in 08/03 is due to some homes in Broadview that were listed way to high!

My speculation is that the patterns identified the above chart have a lot to do with evolving sales tactics by agents. It seems like it has become more and more common for agents to list a home below the value that they think it will sell for… This does two things: (1) It assures a quick sale and therefore a quick commission for the agent. (2) It has the potential to bring in more buyers and thereby raise the final sale price of the home.

When I went to analyze the data at a more local level, things got much messier… Rather than seeing clear seasonal patterns as I did in Loyal Heights, things simply got fuzzy. They got so fuzzy that I’m hesitant to even provide the next chart because it simply looks like an ugly mess…

My goal in creating the chart was to see if the same trend that held up in my analysis yesterday for Loyal Heights, would hold up for other neighborhoods. As the chart above demonstrates, it roughly holds up for all of Ballard, but as the chart below demonstrates, it does not hold up at the neighborhood level. I’ve done enough regression analysis for transportation planning studies to know that a chart like this is going to give meaningless trends.

Sale Price as a Percent of Listing Price for Ballard Neighborhoods

By the way, if you’re interested in the raw data that I used to create these statistics, just email me, and I can send you the Excel file that has all the wonderful (?) pivot tables and charts I used in creating this post.

Also, please feel free to comment on other ideas you might have for exploring the wealth of information that is locked up behind the MLS database. Anna has the key that opens that door! 🙂

In the market for a condo?

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New York, New York in VegasNew condos are sprouting up like weeds in Seattle for a variety of reasons… The Seattle Times has an article worth reading if you are considering buying a condo. Keep in mind that owning a condo is legally very similar to owning a home:

“Most people see condo living as somewhere between owning your own home and renting an apartment, but it’s more like owning your own home. There’s a responsibility that each homeowner has, whether they accept it or not,” said Craig, a board member of the state chapter of the Community Associations Institute, a group that provides educational information about homeowners associations.

“The best advice I can give to anyone buying a condo,” she said, “is to educate themselves as to what they’re buying and to be involved in the maintenance and operation of the condominium.”

If you are in the market for a condo, do your research and try to think of all the potential issues that might arise. Here’s a summary of the advice given in the article:

  • Ask for the key data on the condo, such as the number of units and number of parking spaces.
  • Ask the board for copies of the association’s bylaws, rules and regulations to learn the rules that govern the association.
  • Ask for the Builders public offering statement, which includes valuable information such as a list of the builder’s five most-recent condominium projects, restrictions regarding renting, a list of common amenities and known assessments.
  • Ask the unit owners to provide resale certificates to potential buyers, which should include valuable information such as expected special assessments, ongoing litigation and the amount of reserves available for repairs.
  • Ask for minutes and agendas from past meetings.
  • Ask for a “reserve study” that can give clues on potential structural defects (note that this might not be available.

Real estate ‘flips’ can backfire

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The PI had an interesting article this weekend about how flipping real estate can backfire for the less experienced… The crux of their argument has been said many times before, but is worth repeating: “if you’re not careful with your real estate flips, your investment strategy could produce a sizable payoff for an unintended partner: the Internal Revenue Service.”

Home buying tips

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When I begin with a new client, I often work out a “road map” so that we can clarify a list of priorities. Along those lines, it is often important to layout a time-frame. I’ve worked with buyers who want to move into a new home in weeks and buyers who are planning ahead for months… Being realistic about when you can move into a place helps insure that everyone’s expectations are met! Also, keep in mind that it may take 30-90 days (or more) to locate the right home, secure financing, and complete the home-buying process.

Are you interested in more information? I’ve put together a Home Buying Packet (*.pdf) that lists a bunch of good information about the home buying process with sections on:

  • The Home-Buying Process
  • Home Search Criteria
  • Loan Application Checklist
  • Making an Offer
  • Contract Checklist
  • Home Inspection
  • Glossary of Real Estate Terms
  • and many more!

In filling out the form in the Home Search Criteria section it is important to distinguish between the “Need to Have

Minorities paying more for loans in Seattle?

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high-rate mortgagesThe Seattle Times analyzed loan applications for single-family, owner-occupied homes in 2004 from 25 of the nation’s largest lenders and concluded that minorities are paying more for loans in Seattle. The numbers show that black people in Seattle are more than four times likely to carry a high-rate mortgage than white people (13.2% vs 3.1%). However, the data also shows that black people in the rest of the country are even worse off as they are more than twice as likely to carry a high-rate mortgage than in Seattle (26.6% vs. 13.2%).

Also interesting is that the rates are not due to income differences as “low-income whites are far less likely than high-income blacks to wind up with high-interest mortgages (3.9 percent vs. 11.3 percent).” In looking for answers to why, the times speculates that differences “may be due to a variety of factors, ranging from the financial savvy of loan customers with differing backgrounds, to which lenders operate in which parts of town.”

Lyon Garden StatueI’m pretty sure that everyone reading this blog is aware that it is illegal for lenders to discriminate based on race and/or to discriminate against a neighborhood known as “redlining”. And I’m positive that all lenders are aware that this is illegal, so it makes me think that the difference must have something to do with the financial savvy of the loan customers.

What is the solution to this problem? It seems like educating the consumers of high-rate loans. Along those lines, here are some helpful links and organizations that I’m aware of:

  • Fair Loans, Fair Housing (*.pdf) by the City of Seattle that provides some advice on avoiding predatory loans.
  • Community Home Ownership Center (CHOC) (206-587-5641) CHOC provides seminars for first-time home buyers with links to statewide seminars, and also provides training for real estate agents.
  • El Centro de la Raza (206-329-7960) El Centro provides home buyer education classes in English and Spanish.
  • HomeSight (206-723-4355) HomeSight provides purchase assistance and other financial and educational information to home buyers (in Seattle, South King County and Snohomish County).
  • International District Housing Alliance (206-623-0122) Provides home buyer education and housing counseling in Vietnamese, Cambodian, Tagalog and several Chinese dialects including Cantonese, Mandarin and Taiwanese.
  • Urban League of Metropolitan Seattle (206-461-3792) Provides one-on-one counseling and monthly home buyers seminars.

If anyone is aware of any other local programs, I’d definitely be interested in hearing about them. In particular, I’d be interested in hearing about mortgage brokers that are working to educate minorities.

Thanks to Todd at Lendorama for highlighting the Seattle Times article.

More real estate mapping: MLS Maps Online

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South Lake UnionThanks to a tip from a reader, I found out about a new home search site (MLS search) that is worth highlighting:
http://www.mlsmapsonline.com

The site uses Microsoft’s Virtual Earth technology to plot MLS listings. The idea is great, but the implementation is definitely lacking some key features. For starters, if you are a Firefox user (like me), you’ll be presented with this message when entering the site:

“We’re sorry. MLSMapsOnline.com is an IE only application. Please download the latest version of Internet Explorer to continue to this website.”

What a bummer! I’m surprised that people still write programs that only work with IE. Under most circumstances, I just ignore sites that don’t support Firefox, but in this case, my curiosity for new map-related MLS searching was greater than my dislike of IE. By the way, don’t even bother to try to view this site with a Mac, I had to use my work computer (as oppose to my home computer) just to test-drive the site!. Now that I’ve acknowledged this major drawback, I’ll move on with my review…

Some things I like:

  • The mixing of flash technology and Microsoft’s mapping technology makes for some really smooth visual searching. It is extremely intuitive to navigate the site. The future of home search is definitely visual, and this site is getting us one step closer.
  • The ability to search by “Listed Date“. The rest of the search controls will be pretty familiar to anyone who has used an MLS search.
  • The ability to log-in and save search results is nice, especially since they do not require it to use the site.

Some things I dislike:

  • It is worth repeating that an IE-only tool is really pathetic, especially when it doesn’t even work on the IE version for a mac!
  • The site design really encourages the user to define a city and/or county to search, when the best way to get to an interesting area would be to zoom in on that city. In other words, if I’m searching for homes in north Seattle, why limit me to the city limits. If I scroll north of Seattle, I want to see the homes that are for sale in Shoreline.
  • The search options are pretty minimal. A user should have access to more advanced search options.

At this point in time, it is one of the better home search options for people in the State of Washington (assuming you’re working on a PC and willing to use IE). However, I happen to know that there are a few more MLS search sites that will come on-line soon that will be using similar technology, but won’t have as many of the limitations. The layout they’ve created is not all that different from the standard MLS search and would be pretty easy to duplicate, which leaves me still waiting for a break-out search site.

It’s worth repeating that I’m definitely interested in hearing about more of these technologies. (I find this topic much more interesting than bubble talk 🙂 ) If you know of another interesting home search site available for Seattle residents, I’d love to hear about it!

UPDATE:
1) MLSMapsOnline went live with a version that works well with Firefox! (that was a really fast update!)
2) The VP of Technology for Windemere emailed me to let me know that Windemere also offers a map for viewing homes for sale via their PropertyPoint software. I’ve played around with their mapping software before and it definitely impressed me a year or two ago when it came out. However, I’m pretty sure they are using an ESRI ArcServer backend and that technology seems dated. I definitely think that the future is in running a backend using Google Maps, Yahoo Maps or Microsoft’s Virtual Earth. Besides being extremely expensive to run, ESRI server-side software is way too difficult to implement for there to be much innovation using this software. Leave it to the big companies (like Windemere) and governments (like MTC) to run ESRI software, while the rest of us take advantage of the mapping wars that the big internet companies are waging!

Shack Prices

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Picture of Homes on RiverShack Prices (which I mentioned a few days ago in the comments section of this post) just went live. Their site gives the sale price of King County homes (including Seattle!). Their reason to be:

Shack Prices was created with the hope of giving people as much information about home values as possible. We realized that there were many websites that show you prices of homes on the market (i.e. homes that haven’t yet sold) and some websites that would sell you information about comparable houses nearby, but no sites that let you pick the comparables and the area. The difference between Shack Prices and realtor web sites is that Shack Prices shows the actual price that each house sold for versus the price that someone hopes their house is worth. You can use it to virtually appraise your home or a neighborhood. We hope it helps you as buyer or seller.

In playing around a little, the site seemed pretty darn intuitive. If you are interested in getting a rough idea of how much your home would be worth on the open market, just insert your bedrooms, bathrooms and square feet. If there is not a lot of data in your area, extend the time-frame out a year, instead of the default three months.

If I had to give a critique of the site, it is that they borrowed a little too heavily from the typical home search websites instead of re-thinking how an “appraisal” site might work. For example, if I’m going to appraise my home, I know precisely how many bedrooms and bathrooms are in the home. Why do they have the option for a range? Also, my experience in estimating a home’s value is that some other data fields within the County’s home sales database (like the home’s style code) is much better than the number of bedrooms at indicating the estimated value of a home. The number of bathrooms plays a minor role at best, so I wouldn’t have even bothered with that field. Granted, some of my suggestions might take some user training if they are used to the more traditional home search, but it would be a more valuable tool.

With that said, if you are living in King County and interested in an estimated value of your home, Shack Prices is a great place to start. However, if you want something a little more robust just ask any real estate agent. ANY agent looking for more business will prepare a “Comparative Market Analysis” for free and the agent will likely be more experienced at weeding through the appropriate data fields to develop a better estimate of your home’s value.

Congratulations to Galen for making this happen and check out Seattle Real Estate Talk’s post on Shack Prices…

Buyers and Sellers: Help is on the way…

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I’m pretty sure that many real estate agents wouldn’t want to hear this, but the real estate industry has been very effective at protecting their own self-interest at the expense of home buyers and sellers. There are so many useful tools that could be built, but valuable real estate data is hidden behind thick walls! But rather than focus on the problems of the industry, I’d like to spend a few minutes talking about the future…

If you’ve been reading Rain City Guide long enough, you probably know that last May I put together the first home search (“gHomes