[photopress:galen.png,full,alignright]I took a walk with my camera this morning and put these ten together for Galen. Not sure if it’s what you want me to talk about Galen, but give me a better idea and an example, and I’ll try to get closer to what you are looking for.
That’s right, I’m going meta-meta. Or better yet, I’m going mega meta (unlike Greg who went mini meta! 🙂 ).
And the worst real estate lists?
[photopress:stop.jpg,thumb,alignright]It is time to use Escalation Clauses in reverse. Many, if not most of my clients, were previously working with another agent. Some have explained that they were not happy with the fact that the agent was always, and without exception, recommending that they offer full price, with an escalation clause over the asking price. While this may be a sure way to insure that you get the property, you may at the same time be outbidding yourself. While over the past few years, buyers have used escalation clauses to WIN the house, it is time to use them in reverse, to protect yourself against overpaying for a property.
Recently I have seen a couple of these “Seller will not look at offers until…” backfiring to where the seller has no offers on that stated date. By requiring buyers to wait a week or so before the seller will look at the buyer’s offer ,and by pricing the property too high at the same time, the seller ends up “A day late and a dollar too high”. Just because “everyone is doing it” doesn’t mean that *you* can do it, and get away with it. You meaning the seller in that context.
Now that the market is winding down a bit, will we see an end to escalation clauses? I hope not. It is time to shift gears and use them in reverse.
Let’s say the seller is asking $530,000. Instead of putting $530,000 as your offer with a cap of $550,000, you might want to offer $500,000 with a cap of $530,000. Many falsely assume that if a property has many offers, that the property was underpriced. Clearly not so. Some who have made offers at full price or better with an even higher cap, have found themselves paying full price or better, even if they end up being the only offer on the table at the end of the “seller will not look at offers until….” timeframe.
No one can predict at this time of year if the “sluggishness” is seasonal, or a sign that the market is turning. Even during the period where it seemed prices were just shooting to “the sky’s the limit”, there are periods of sluggishness. Periods of sluggishness can be as simple as many, many agents are away on vacation (August). Many, many buyers don’t want to buy what happens to be for sale (Halloween through January 2). The period from now until early next year, with the exception of a “spurt” in September, is always a slower period with no way to predict what will happen in “high Season” (January through July).
I do know this. It is a very bad time for a seller to be “off” on his condition and asking price. It is a very bad time for buyers to assume that just because a seller will not look at offers until next week, that the seller is going to get multiple offers. During the time that you are waiting for the seller to be ready to look at your offer or respond to your offer, pay close attention. If the house has any inherent negatives, particularly with regard to location, do not outbid yourself by offering full price or better just because you “assume” that the seller will have more than one offer by next week.
To sellers…you have to be “positioned to sell” by September 15 unless you are willing to take the risk of having to wait until January 2. By the way, January 2 has always and forever been my favorite day to put a property on market. But that’s another story…
[photopress:lega_emc2_l.jpg,thumb,alignright]My engineer friends are asking off screen for more details on a “scientific” approach to valuing property. You know, something they can put on an Excel Spreadsheet 🙂 Here’s a fairly tried and true method of valuation here in the Seattle Area. This method was so accurate a couple of years ago, that many agents were using this calculation to list property, and many owners knew it and were insisting on this method of valuation. That was before Zillow came out of course 🙂
I do have to caution readers from outside of the Seattle Area and the State of Washington, that this may not be reliable in other areas of the Country.
Here in the Seattle Area we have little niche markets everywhere. West Seattle, Downtown Kirkland, North Queen Anne, Ballard on the Freemont Side, Crown Hill, etc… Every pocket of value is self contained and is often called everywhere around the Country, the “snob” factor. I sometimes call it the “nosebleed” section, particularly in “view corridors”. Every place I have ever worked has had many, many imaginary lines that determine value pockets. Like the little sliver of area that has the zip code of the lower valued area, but the school district of the contiguous higher valued area.
OK, my engineer friends are getting bored with all the words. Here goes. When I first arrived in the Seattle Area and was working over by Green Lake, it was well known that everything was selling at 1.3 X assessed value. “Everything” meaning “all things being equal” and the “good-average home” without a view. Flippers were looking for anything and everything they could get their hands on that was selling at or below assessed value and using 1.3 or more x assesed value as their “worst case” after improvements value benchmark.
The beauty of this method is that you can extract the factor from each pocket neighborhood, and then apply the factor to the assessed value. I’m going to use the mls, but Galen and others, if you let me know of a site that has sold data that includes the inside photos of the sold property, let me know, so I can give the tutorial pointing to sites the Average Joe can access.
I just sold a property that closed at 1.54 times assessed value. Prior to that sale the top rate for that neighborhood was 1.33 times assessed value or less. Agents sometimes hold the market value down on the seller side of things by pre-ordaining the snob factor. Sometimes I can extend the imaginary line and drag the snob factor ratio of 1.5 to 1.6 times assessed value over to the nearby area that has not gotten a fair shake by the local agents for too long a time.
Take all of the solds in the same zone, as in nearby homes of like kind. Like kind meaning you compare view properties to other view properties and non view properties to other non view properties. You don’t have to consider square footage or number of bedrooms, as the assessed value will take that into consideration by going up and down to accommodate the inherent differences. This method is often more accurate than using the number of bedrooms and square footage reported in the mls.
Take the sold prices of each home divided by the assessed value of that home. Once you get the range of value for that area, say 1.4 – 1.48 times assessed value, you look at the assessed value of the home for sale and multiply it by that given area’s factor. If you pay more than that, then you know you are at the high end of the value range and might have to hold the property longer to come out whole. If you pay at or lower than the low end of the range, you can likely sell it whenever you want and make a profit.
View property will generally go for 1.6 times assessed value. The problem comes with flip projects. Flip projects and remodeled homes have jumped to 1.8 to 1.9 times assessed value. These homes, while they may be worth the price, must be evaluated with regard to the improvements of the basic systems and not just the comsmetic changes. If the roof is three layers and the wiring is original and the basement is yukky, but the kitchen has granite counters and the bathrooms are remodeled and the home is staged…be very careful. To garner 1.9 times assessed value, the home should be “like new” not only based on aesthetics, but all of the main components and systems of the home as well AND be a view property.
By calculating the 1.? times assessed value, you can determine how picky to be about the inspection, how much is too much to pay and where you are paying for “snob factor”. If nearby homes are selling for 1.4 times assessed value or even 1.9 times assessed value, and your offer is 1.8 times assessed value…that should tell you something you may need to know.
OK you data crunchers out there. Time for you to test your valuation using the x assessed value method and compare it to your Zestimate. Let’s hear what you come up with. This should work in any part of the Country that does not re-assess based on sale price, such as California.
I can tell from the number of hits that these list of 10 posts are popular, but they don’t seem to generate much conversation. 🙁 Nonetheless, I’ll keep writing them as long as I’m enjoying myself! 🙂
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Photo to right: Lynlee Kane w/ clients
We frequently close transactions in which the buyer offers a higher price than the list price in exchange for the seller paying buyer closing costs. Most of the transactions of this type actually result in the seller netting less than if they accepted a full price offer without concessions. We recognize that many buyers are cash poor and need to have the seller pay closing costs.
When writing your contracts please consider that the higher price will result in the seller paying higher excise tax, real estate commissions, escrow fee and title premiums.
For example, a very common $10,000 seller concession (offset by increasing the sales price) will cost the seller $778 (6%, 1.78% excise) in excise tax and commissions alone.
Sellers usually do not consider these costs until they come to the closing table and actually review the numbers on the settlement statement. This obviously creates an awkward situation for the listing agent who may have told them it was a wash.
Over the year, we have documented only one case where the listing agent addressed the increase in excise tax via a commission credit. Only about half the time we receive addendums stating that commissions will be based upon the lower or original list price.
While assisting 100% financed borrowers with closing costs is helpful in making a sale, make certain your sellers understand that it may cost them more.
Wishing you all the best in smooth closings!
Another list of 10:
[photopress:dartboard.jpg,thumb,alignright]To some extent buyers, especially first time buyers, encourage receiving inaccurate information with regard to value and other home details, by asking the right questions at the wrong time.
Sellers understand that it takes time to work on a valuation. Rarely does a seller call and say, “I live at 123 Great Street, what is the value of my house?”. I’d venture to say that no seller expects an agent to know the value of their house on the spot, nor would they want a two second answer. Consequently, valuing the home properly for a seller, within the framework of the seller’s expectations of the time it takes to give an accurate answer, produces fairly good results most of the time.
Buyers on the other hand encourage shoot from the hip responses fairly continuously. The normal process should be that the buyer view the properties selected by both them and the agent. The buyer should select one or more that they might like to purchase, and then ask the agent to take some time to evaluate and value those properties that they like best.
But that is not normally how a buyer operates. Often they ask all kinds of questions, as if an agent knows every property they are showing in great detail and with a large degree of accuracy. Certainly the agent can, and will if you encourage it properly, do all of the work necessary to know every property. But buyers seem to expect an agent to spend this kind of time on every property being shown before the agent shows the property and before the agent knows if the buyer is even interested in the property. By and large an agent is not going to study every single property he shows in great detail, as it would be a waste of time, especially for the ones the buyer hates at first glance.
When you first look at property, you should simply be advising the agent if you like it or do not like it. Then you should ask the agent to dig into only the properties you like and might buy, and find out as much as possible about those and also value only those. For as long as I can remember, many buyers will go from house to house asking questions like, what do you think of the price? Is it worth it? What is the age of the house, have they had any offers, etc… By asking a lot of questions about every single house, even the houses you hate, you encourage the agent to answer off the top of his head. This starts the whole relationship off on a bad foot. The agent doesn’t want to say I don’t know to all of these questions, but it is not reasonable to expect an agent to know a lot about every single property being shown. Next thing you know the agent is giving sloppy and often inaccurate answers to avoid saying I don’t know to all of the questions.
Asking your agent if the asking price is reasonable, is of course a very good question. But just as the seller gives the agent hours and sometimes days to come up with that answer, don’t expect an answer on the spot for every single house you are shown whether you like it or not. If you do ask the question, and the agent answers immediately without taking at least an hour or two to research the answer to that question, don’t be surprised if the answer you do get on the spot is a knee jerk, inaccurate answer.
By encouraging the agent to answer inaccurately, you set up a relationship where the agent continues to give you shoot from the hip responses even on the property you eventually purchase. Look at property from your perspective. Do you like it or not. Then ask the agent to research the properties you like. This will insure a more accurate valuation and more accurate facts. First the agent calls the listing agent to see if he has any offers and if so, what time are the offers being presented. If you have a few hours to get your offer in, and you usually do, set an appointment for a couple of hours later and ask the agent to research the properties in detail before you sit down to discuss the price and terms of the offer.
Often it is not a good idea to ask ALL of your questions before making an offer. If the buyer’s agent calls the listing agent and asks tons of questions like How old is the roof, Did they ever have water in the basement, etc., that buyer will not be given good consideration if there are multiple offers. Many questions, especially negative toned questions, should be asked after you “tie up the property” and most of them should be asked of the home inspector during the home inspection.
Sorry, I seem to have covered two topics in one there. Just following the normal sequence of errors buyers often make when viewing property and prior to making an offer. Often the seller is more negotiable with a buyer who loves their house, than one who is “kicking tires” from the getgo. Timing is everything. You should ask your agent all of the questions you may have and he should answer all of the questions including the ones you didn’t ask. Leaving the agent room to apply proper timing to obtain the correct answers, without alarming the seller or seller’s agent at the wrong time, can make a huge difference in whether you get the property and how much you pay for it. Once deemed a “difficult or squirrely” buyer by the listing agent, you will often have to jump through more hoops to get the property, if you can get it at all. Give your buyer’s agent enough room to play everything to your best advantage and don’t look at him like he is stupid, if he doesn’t know every answer to every one of your questions “off the top of his head”.
[photopress:bullseye.jpg,thumb,alignright]While “market value” and “appraised value” are not always one in the same, calculating a home’s value is both a science and an art, whether the value is being ascertained by an appraiser or a real estate professional.
The purpose of the valuation can actually have some bearing on the value itself. If you have a client who is purchasing a property to remodel and flip it, the value for that client has to take into consideration the cost of the improvements and the eventual resale value. Consequently, one has to be involved in both knowing, and making recommendations with regard to, which improvements will produce the greatest return, before the client makes an offer on the property.
Just as a lender has to take into consideration many factors when recommending various loan programs, a real estate professional has to take into account many factors before determining a home’s fair market value. When you are representing a seller, you have to lean towards the high end of the value range. An appraiser would call this “highest and best use”. A real estate agent would call that “if purchased by a person of the best buyer profile. For example, someone purchasing a property to live in it, will pay more for a property than a builder who is going to tear it down or an investor who is going to remodel and flip it.
When you represent the buyer, you have to consider the home’s resale value and any money left on the table by the seller. A seller leaves money on the table by various means that are generally not reflected in the asking price itself. I use this test when valuing a property for the buyer: If they called me in a very short period of time to sell it because they decided to move back from where they came from, could I get them out whole, meaning purchase price plus the costs of purchase and sale. By being a “listing agent” in your mind when representing a buyer, an agent will perform a better valuation than if they are just considering how much the buyer wants or likes the property. Of course, the buyer can always choose to pay more than that value and say “I don’t plan to sell it as I plan to live here for a very long time”, but they will at least know how much they are overpaying for the privelege of getting the home. Very important when the buyer is trying to determine the cap on their escalation clause.
Let’s go to the science part of the valuation. Some houses have what are called “true comps”. This would be most true in a very large community of newer homes. I am not going to spend a lot of time on valuing property with “true comps” because here in the Seattle Area, there are very, very few houses that can be valued by those normal methods. In fact the only ones I have been able to value by normal methods have been newer townhomes. Proximity to the subject property is not always relevant, especially in Seattle vs. Eastside. The comps have to be ones built in the same “finish period” and have the same “buyer profile”. For instance, a property built in 1991 may have white cabinets, gray countertops, white appliances and 4″ white tile in the baths. Using that as a comp to a property built in 1995 with granite tile countertops vs. gray laminate and maple cabinets vs. white cabinets, will not produce a reliable end result. Nor would using a comp with granite slab counters, stainless appliances and hardwood floors.
For the most part, we are lucky to find one recent sale that is quite similar to the property we are valuing. I call that the home’s “significant other”. An appraiser will still use three solds, whether similar or not, to ascertain value. A real estate agent will pull the significant other from the solds and move to properties that are pending and STI and ACTIVE in determining what a buyer will pay or should pay or what a seller should set as an asking price.
A few recent examples. When I valued a property for a seller back in May, I had comps of $325,000, $327,000 and $337,000. I priced the townhome at $350,000 and it sold for $350,000. The upward momentum of the marketplace from May was a significant factor. For this particular townhome, best buyer profile was someone who was relocating to the area and the buyer was in fact relocated here for her new job.
When I recently valued a newer townhome at this time of year, I needed to be more “right on target” as we are in a sluggish month of August aka “agents take vacation time month” and running into September which generally has two weeks out of four that are hot. The buyer profile of this particular townhome was a single person who would take in roommates. It did sell quickly and at full price to a student taking in two roommates. The danger on this one was pricing against new construction. You have to be as high as you can without encroaching on the price at which a buyer can get a brand new townhome nearby. I could not use the comps at all when valuing that property, because the subject property was built in 2001 and the comps were 2003 and new. The interior finishes were not comparable and could not compete, so to get a fast full price was their best chance of not having to bargain down to a level below the highest achievable price.
Let’s flip to buyers and how I value a property for a buyer vs. a seller. I’ll have to make this another article as the Vicodin for the root canal is kicking in and I’m going to barf.