DRIP DRIP DRIP

The snow is[photopress:snow_picture.jpg,thumb,alignright] finally melting off the tree branches in my yard today. One foot of snow fell last Wednesday afternoon turning my normal 45 min commute to Issaquah into 4 hours. I’m really impressed with how well the agents are doing maneuver on these slick streets. I had a showing Friday night, Saturday and Sunday on one listing, even though the roads are still slick and hard to navigate out here in Issaquah.

Nice to be back to RCG. I’ve been buried in an investment class for the last 3-4 months and haven’t been keeping up with the post reading or writing. Came up for breath today and I see that a Welcome to all the new contributors is in order! We’re honored to have you on board. 

Given that it’s tax time, I want to remind everyone to be sure you’re aware of all the tax advantaged investment programs out there for real estate. Who knows how long these will last. There’s a great new program called a solo 401K to go along with the Roth IRA programs investing in real estate.  I’ve blogged about this before and hope you check it out especially if you’re paying taxes on any real estate gains this year. 

I’m building a good retirment by investing this way and it will all be tax free.  A key player in the IRA game is the custodian.  I’ve been waiting for the new custodian in Seattle, Viking Bank with Jim Winder in charge of the Self Directed IRA department to get their website up and running so that RCG readers can get information on line. Jim Winder is a well known guru of self-directed IRA’s and he is respected local celebrity and has taught many many classes in the past.  He promises the Viking Bank site will be functional soon.  But it is tax time so until then, I’ll direct you to Pensco Trust to learn all you need to know about some really great tax strategies using some of the money you’ve already socked in retirement plans. Pensco Trust is a national leader in IRA education so I hope you find these articles helpful.  

Once Jim’s fully in the game I’ll post you his site and when he’ll be teaching live classes.  LTD will be hosting one, soon, I hope, and by the way, I met Jim here on RCG!

Residential sales volume for Oct 2006 up 5% from September 2006.

I’ve often thought realtors were the first to feel trend changes and now I’m going to step out of my comfort zone and say that I feel a change in the air. I tried to make a low offer today for a client on an Edmonds condo for $599,000 and it sold on Monday for full price. Another, a home in NewCastle with several showings today that looks like it will also go for full price with multiple offers for $550,000. I’m thinking the bottom feeders are full and that we’re soon going to get back to our normally uptrending market. I’ve heard that most homeowners decide to sell during the Holiday season when they are disatisfied with their homes while entertaining, and then they start looking to upgrade in January. Anyone know any facts to support this?

I also got a cold call from a Baltimore developer this week looking for hot projects in the Puget Sound area since it’s supposed to be the hottest in the nation over the next 10 years. We may work together on 3 projects we have ready to build. I have another appointment with an investor that buys first phase new construction, a plat at a time and we’re meeting in December.

Nothing I can quantify, just the feelings of a trend change.

Here are MLS statistics for October. 

* Existing home transactions sold increased 3% in October 2006 from September 2006. 

* 49.8 acreage parcels sold monthly, up 13%; average price: $297,031, up 50% from last year. 

* New single family homes units sold in October 2006 off 18% from September 2006. 

* Condominium unit sales off 8% in September 2006 from August 2006. 

Projection: 

䀃 Relative inventory decreased to 2.8 months. Prices will increase. 

䀃 Expect some seasonal slowing through the start of 2007. 

And Now, Seattle is in the Game

In a previous blog i wrote about how cool it was tht Bellevue was getting blanketed by wireless and one of the commenting posts reported that Microsoft was blanketing Portland, as well.

Now, in Wednesday’s PI, I read that Seattlites are being introduced to a completely new technology (new to me, a non-techie that is), Clearwire, which doesn’t use DSL or Cable, but actually connects to the internet wirelessly through electrical connections, where ever you can find an outlet, including a car battery and it promises 1.5 mbps for only $42.95/mo.  And it’s currently going all the way to Issaquah, Marysville and Tacoma.

Good-Bye Sprint card!

 

Free Internet

In a featured artice by Ashley Bach in yesterday’s Seattle Times:

“The core of downtown Bellevue will be getting free wireless Internet access in the next few weeks.
Workers this week are installing 28 wireless boxes on street lights and utility poles to provide Web access in a 150-acre “hot zone.” The coverage area stretches from Bellevue Square to Meydenbauer Center, between Northeast Fourth and Eighth streets and curving slightly south to include Downtown Park.” see complete article

We live in an exciting time. Now I don’t have to park in Barnes and Noble parking lot to pick up a signal in Bellevue! I’m so for blanketing the world with free wireless, like radio signals, then I can get rid of my sprint wireless card that I’m paying $60/month for.  Yeah, City of Bellevue

Desperate to Sell?

 waterfront home for sale

 Waterfront Property for Sale! (See the For Sale sign by the garbage cans?)

Time to re-analyze the best marketing plan for this home! OK, Duvall realtors, let’s have a Sunday Tour of Homes by Boat! Better yet, let’s get this home Off the Market!  

Though this is an extreme case, Northwest sellers are having a Sale! Sellers that really need to sell are making incredible deals. This is more than a seasonal slump, this slump has been created by the media as much as anything, rates having dropped. We’re seeing offers 10-15% off our normal market conditions of 99% list to sell.  But, like any sale, you have to buy from the available choices (like above?).  So buyers, if you want a deal, be prepared to not buy your ‘perfect home’  For that, you’ll have to wait until more buyers are back and the demand goes up enough for sellers to relist their homes and get our normal market values, which is anticipated (by some, me included) to be 3-10% better in 2007 than in 2006. 

It’s really tempting to just take a vacation from now until February.  I should have saved more nuts for the winter!   My advice to sellers this year, JUST HOLD OFF selling until late January unless you have no choice or if you are going to sell and buy and be a bottom feeder yourself! 

Get Creative

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We lost IT. We use to have IT and now we lost IT and now you can get it on ebay! This IT is that huge chunk of our commission that used to come from being the gatekeeper to the multiple. At a listing presentation our competition was only another agent that charged the same fee (there were a few reduced fee offices but it wasn’t a trend).

But they don’t need us anymore for that. They can get it on ebay. And they can get listed for under $400! Of course, taking and uploading the listing in the multiple is just the beginning, but if we’re going to separate out tasks like the actual listing going into the multiple, why not separate out all the tasks and see what they’re really worth. I agree that uploading the listing is a pretty simple task and a lot of agents just fax it in so it probably is only worth $400 (you have to be registered with the mls for this, plus it involves contracts and accuracy of the listing information)….. if that’s all the service a seller wants.

So, last summer I decided to address all of the things that agents do by breaking up the tasks and establishing a monetary value to each. It’s the ala carte menu of listing services and I googled and googled but couldn’t find anyone with anything complete enough online. I even took the coursework to get licensed as a consutant from the National Association of Real Estate Consultants (NAREC) so I could see if someone had already done all that work.

I separated out the tasks ranging from $20/hr for real estate data input, filling flyer boxes, dropping off keys, etc. (a high school kid couldn’t do all of this) to $300/hr for negotiation and problem solving. Wow, I was surprised at how often I worked for $20/hr. I tried to figure out what I’d be charged by different people doing different levels of work and then added a profit margin.

The $300 work i assumed would be done by the senior agent taking the listing and running the team but personally doing tasks that take a lot of experience and skill like price opinions, market timing, the totally important negotiations with both buyers and the buyer’s agents and solving all those problems (I had a list of 88 things that can go wrong with a transaction). Personally, this is where I’d prefer to spend my time.

The results are on the LTDre.com website if you want to see how it works. My slick computer tech even built it to automatically compute based on different packages and house price.

What got me thinking about this was today’s Inman article on bloated commissions and how much I agree with it. The article suggests, “consumers would benefit most from fee-for-service real estate companies that base compensation on flat fees, hourly fees and other specific payments for services rather than relying on a commission rate that is based on a percentage of the sale price of a home.

A New Kind of Real Estate Company Visited

A couple of weeks ago I blogged on a new real estate model where I try to match real estate agent strategies to the agent’s personality.  I call the different strategies “games” (www.getstrategic.com/agents).  I’m going to share my progress with you, the highs and the lows to let you know how it is going since there’s no other company that I know of doing this sort of model. It may be like picking a carrot to see how it’s growing. But this carrot is an unknown species. Sticking with this metaphore, the only way I can observe it is to grow it hydroponically in a glass beaker to watch it grow, the glass beaker being this blog!

Here’s what I can share with you so far:

I’ve had the poorest results with the 3 experienced agents I had to let go because they wouldn’t put time into activities that they’d never done before. I think they must have joined because of the word “free leads

Simplifying the buying process

5 years ago on a plane to Hawaii I started writing a Buyer Book to help me when working with my buyers. I couldn’t find a good one that made sense of our local market and spelled out what needs to be answered before a buyer even starts looking. I have a development partner in Hawaii and have good memories of writing this book, sipping Kona coffee from his sister’s plantation and eating Orange Bread on his incredible water view patio. Unfortunately, I had to come home and it took me three more months to finish in the rain.

Why did I write the book? Because I wanted buying a house to be fun and as simple as possible and buyers hate seeing houses they don’t really like. After all, how do you decide where to live and what to buy, if you’ve never been asked the questions that would get you a good working answer. So, after 10 years as an agent and starting out like all agents do by picking out 30 houses or so that “might” work for the buyer, narrowing it down to what I considered the best 10, showing those, making a buying decision and then the “buyer’s remorse” because they wondered what else was out there.

Given that I’m mostly an analytical person, I looked for the “kiss” in the purchasing process and came up with what has been unfailingly the most basic questions that must be examined before you even get into a car with a buyer. So here’s how I work: the buyers read the book and agree to independently (partners separately) fill out a questionaire that tracks with the book before the first 2 hour consulting session which is usually on the morning before going out to buy a home. Those 7 anwers are what I springboard from in the search. I have a picnic lunch prepared and we are now looking at only homes that really do meet their requirments. No buyer’s remorse since they’ve narrowed down the search themselves. The know that if they see a sign on a home that they didn’t look at, that it simply did not meet their requirements. These buyers are also prequalified and we know their housing price limit before our meeting.

People buy with the following criteria, whether they know it or not and buyers can use this criteria to find their home: (not necessarily in this order)

1. What importance is their choice of schools (I once had a young couple, he said it wasn’t important, she said it was, and she announced at the buyer consult that she was pregnant. I left the room :))

2. What importance is the commute: I usually hear 20-45 minutes (unless it’s a microsoft buyer), so then we talk about what hours the commuter works to determine how far out they can live, keeping in mind the school parameters.

3. What importance is a development with CC&R’s vs one without. I explain that although they might not want control on the color they paint their own home, but do they want an airplane parked in the front yard like I saw one day in a Parkland neighborhood near Tacoma. This is an extreme example, I know

4. How important is yard size. These days with all the dogs, many buyers think they ‘need’ a large yard, which leads me to the next question.

5.What importance is the age of the home. Most 30 somethings hate the home they grew up in and they almost always hate the splits. However if you want a large yard, but want a new house, then you’ll probably be paying 3 times what your budget allows, so if the large yard is really really important, then be prepared for 15-20 year old home or older. You have to buy a home where the land was developed before the local jurisdictions started enforcing federally mandated land use restrictions requiring greenbelts or common areas. The result of the federal legislation is that by 1999, all municipalites had to come into complaince with new land use rules. Over a 10 year period, all municipalities had to ensure that all developments must have a very large portion (40-60%) of a development set aside as communtiy area. The latest municipality that I know of to come into compliance was Montlake Terrace, which barely made the 10 year limit. For the developers to make enough profit to make the development feasible, the remaining land had to be divided by the same number of lots, making the lots much much smaller.

I’ve done my own casual research on how the public sees this land use change, and when I ask customers which they’d rather have, large yards or community spaces, they overwhelmingly chose community spaces. So, though we don’t like it, we don’t like it less than we like the new communities with all their parks and community feel (Ergo, the popularity of Issaquah Highlands).

6. The next question is how important is the style. In other words, do you hate splits, do you like to see alot of volume and want a vaulted living room, or does that mean you have to just heat the empty space. Do you have to have a rambler, and depending on budget, are you prepared for townhouse or condo living.

And last but not least

7. Do you want to have a house in complete move in condition or can you do some of the work yourselves after closing.

These 7 questions have been all that I’ve needed to narrow down the search. My buyers fill out the questionaire first before our 2 hour meeting, then armed with those parameters, I have a pretty good idea where the buyers will end up. We pick out thier own houses online and then with a picnic lunch, out we go to preview the properties that they picked. Normally, they buy on this first day, since we have narrowed down their search together and they almost never have buyer’s remorse since they pretty much scoured the enitre market themselves with me just acting as coach.

This has worked great for the last 5 years. My buyers love it and are amazed at how you really can create a structure out of the 6500 or so listings online. AND be right about it!

It may be broken, but here's a plan to fix it!

Ah, finally get to catch up on reading some RCG posts. What a prolific group this is! Makes you wonder just how important a degree in creative writing might become to the average agent in the future. I’ve been busy cuz I’ve been doing alot of recruiting these days.  So, when Eric, in a recent post  wonders about the mega agent model works I can’t help but commenting that it works great for the mega agent and not so great for the mini agents on the team and especially not so great for the customers of said Mega Agent who may not want to be foisted off on a newbie. Ardell says that the industry is broken because agents don’t help train newbies anymore. Couldn’t agree more. Fact is, there are agent training programs within offices, called Mentor Programs, but they cost the newbie a lot. I just heard about one such program that offers the mentoring agent 70% of the commission! No wonder its broken, but I have an idea of house to fix at least a part of it.

I wonder if people outside of this industry know that 85% of all new agents have left the business within 2 years and that average agent income is around $32,000 below the average household income of $34,000! When we talk about the industry being broken, how could it not be when out of every 100 agents, 85 of them have under 2 years of experience practicing in an industry that demands a high level of legal education and an equally high and complicated knowledge base. I’ve blogged before about the need to raise the bar for new agents. But I don’t see it happening unless I want to get on the Real Estate Commission which I don’t want to do. Untrained agents are like driving over a train track with the train coming. Shoot, I once had a seller move out a month early because his agent misread the financing deadline for closing of the transaction! Like Ardell, I could tell thousands of other stories. Isn’t the fact that there are so many newbies who are inadequately trained but allowed to handle any kind of transaction greatly affecting the quality of service to the clients? Doesn’t this create most of the problems with transactions?

So, now I’m in a position to make a difference. I can’t affect the other agents but I can sure affect the ones at LTD. There is a huge fault with the traditional business model for a real estate company, starting with recruiting.  When recruiting, brokers use the same practices to recruit new agents that you find in multi level marketing. They point to the super agent making all kinds of money and driving the ego car and hold them as the example of what the newbie can become. It’s enticing and makes the mouth water. The newbie can hardly wait to get a piece of that fortune and so eagerly joins the firm with all the zeal and ambition that should make them succeed. They are given the standard goals: take forms classes, establish a farm, knock on doors, do open houses, develop a sphere and take floor time.  But sadly, they don’t usually succeed with this advice. At least not 85% of the time.

Part of the problem is the upside down business model in the traditional company. This model and the model taught in broker training, is that once an agent has earned enough, typically $50,000 and splits this 50/50 with the brokerage, then that agent no longer earns money for the company, and is, in fact, a drain on the office, supples, training, etc.  Instead of being tied to the ongoing success of the agent, the office does just the opposite and depends instead on recruiting new agents instead of developing what talents they already have. Why, because their model is make $25,000 from as many agents as they can. Thus the revolving door.  Agents that carry heavy listing farms are also recruited but not for the reasons many might think. The heavy listing agent is sought after by almost all companies because they get the companies name on the streets with signage and have listings advertised to get the phones to ring. Do sellers know that their home isn’t advertised in the paper to necessarily get it sold as much as it is to take up print space and serve as image marketing? Plus the phone rings at the office to give the ‘up’ agents leads thereby providing a way for a new agent to get business.The newbies often do the open houses, not to sell the home, but to develope clients.

But what I think is an even greater cause of this failure are the many, many hats an agents wears, all requiring a different personality, skill and intelligence level. They must understand and implement all of the forms used in listings, sales, Federal forms and laws (asbestos, lead paint, fair housing) without which they can look at jail time and/or fines, disclosure subleties, etc. A typical agent must also learn how to read people, how to know just when to push and when to hold back. They must be strong enough in a listing presentation to sell themselves as the best while empathetic enough to work with buyers and understand their points of view. A good buyer’s agent must know how to perform a buyer consultation.and know how to find the exact right house out of the many thousands that are on the market, and not have buyer’s remorse.   A typical agent must know geography, house styles, demographic trends, know how to price, employer information, school information, church and communtiy information, transit information, structure and design.  Additionally, this practice requires a high level of negotiating skills, assistance during the inspection where many deals take a nose dive, plus the ability to stay on good terms with other agents in the market place without which they are doomed.   Agents are asked for advice on mortgage progrmas, title issues, need to understand and explain builder addendum (if that’s possible) and warranties, understand the escrow process and data base management, etc.

This is but a small list of the knowledge and skills an agent must have or fail. But, as if that weren’t enough, they have to be able to wear a marketers hat, as well. What is the best way to attract clients? How do you ever set up those lucrative programs aimed at building a referral base. Do you advertise in magazines, newspapers, online, do you buy lead sources like House Values, do you blog, do massive mailings, do you establish a farm?  Who will build a web site and teach how to make it a useful lead source. And on and on.

Do you see why it is ludacrous to ask all these skills of one person? How could any well balanced individual know all of this stuff and still have a life. Even the mega agents who scale as Eric has suggested might be a good real estate model, these agents must be even more talented since now they must also be managers, and, worse, they are ultimately responsible for errors made at any level by the team, any lawsuits, ommissions or mistakes by the assistant will be born also by the mega agent.

What we see in other companies in America are several different departments with different specialties and responsiblities.  When I owned two restaurants, a nightclub and a boatyard and marina, as you might imagine that I had 10-12 departments reporting to me at any one time. And I certainly didn’t know how to repair a twin screw diesel engine nor could I entertain as well as the All Male Revue! I contracted out marketing, I hired bookkeepers, I paid well for department heads that were specialists in their fields. Why not have a real estate company set up the same way, i.e., with different departments doing what they each do best. The agent should be the person who is face to face with the clients, not the person who is mailing out postcards or doing the research on the different lead generator sources. Even deciding how to outsource the different parts of the job is time consuming.  Each agent should work with the PART of the business that best suits his or her personality style, and you determine this with a personality assessment and lots of coaching, i.e., if you want to work at night and you are not shy and have a commanding presence, you’d probably like being a listing agent. If you get your kicks out of assisting someone in finding their dream house, you’d probably love working with buyers. If numbers fascinate you and you love the work of high finance, you’d probably prefer investment real estate and if you can’t tear yourself away from watching a home get built, you’d probably love new construction. For the well connected, whether by church, networking groups, family, and all kinds of social groups, and you love to give parties, then a referral based practice might work best for you.

Agents need to know themselves and find their own best fit in the business, then I firmly believe that they will succeed at a much higher level and make it through the first two years better than if they follow the typical one size fits all advice of their broker. Or, worse yet, take every referral coming from the relocation department and only make about 30% and lose belief in themselves.  As the agent grows, learn the ropes and learn what they love to do best, then migrate throughout the different departments within the company and take on more challenges.

We need a new model. We need to create companies where the agents are treated as individuals and trained as such. Where it’s acknowledged that they can not wear all the hats at once.  We need to have all the effective marketing in place and offer assistance with implementing it. We need to provide FREE leads to our agents. We need to create an economic model where the agents continuing success is directly tied to the continuing success of the office.  We need to give agents the reason to stay loyal to the company and to take away all the stumbling blocks to success.

It’s a huge order, but doable. I know and it works. Start out with bright, likeable and agressive people, have programs set up in the different fields within real estate so there is enough diversity, have the marketing materials and programs researched and implemented so that the agent can be with the client and do what they do best.  Have the negotiation, legal and transactional support to augment the knowledge base of the agent, and mentor and coach as long as necessry. This is no Walmart model, nor is it a Costco model. It’s not the super agent model where only the super agent makes a good living, it’s a Super Office model where all can do well, all are supported, teamwork is highly regarded and there is incentive to grow the company, too. A happy and successful and nutured agent will cure this industry of what ails it. 

Embracing Seattle’s New Urbanism

As a longtime resident, I’m used to watching the Puget Sound area go through continual growth spurts as development and demographics change. I get lost in my hometown of Port Orchard spurting for the last 45 years as steady as the whales in Sinclair Inlet.

In spite of economic ups and downs, the NW is never stagnant and the next 10 years will hardly be an exception. And now there is another new trend as the babyboomers are seeking new lifestyles, all the while the NW economy is projected to add 50,000 new jobs by the year 2024. This new lifestyle and economy is fueling a new change as Seattle, the Queen of the NW cities embraces it’s new urbanism.

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Seattle will continue to change it’s skyline as a projected 10,000 new condominium units will be built over the next 5 years, ranging in price from the $200,000’s to more than 5 million. Here is the skyline as it will be affected by projects currently in the pipeline.

[photopress:Skyline_1.jpg,thumb,alignright]Always living in the eye of this growth hurricane, I try to stay open to predictions especially when these 10,000 units are already on the drawing boards. (Remember when East Lake Sammamish was only summer cottages, and the only thing you did in Issaquah was stop for a burger before hitting the slopes?)

But still I pause skeptically when I see plans for the immediate future in development like those planned for downtown Seattle. With only 55,000 people currently living in downtown Seattle, will changing demographics fill all of these new units? And where will the people come from?

Dean Jones, President and CEO of Real Logics speaking at a panel discussion regarding Seattle’s New Urbanism in June, believes there is a pent up demand for these new units and that about 2200 units per year can be absorbed, likely more than can be built possibly causing more demand than supply.

This pent up demand, Jones believes, is coming from 4 main sources: up to 1/2 from empty nesters; in city professionals; in city homeowners; and a minor segment of investors. According to architect Blaine Weber, a major driver of this demand for in city living is that people are seeking a new lifestyle. Living in the city can be a more carefree, healthy lifestyle as people step out of their building and walk a few blocks to work. ‘With addition of new pedestrian walkways and multi-modal transit opportunities, Seattle can become a 24-7 hub.’ Personally, I think that rising gas prices also make people rethink their life style alternatives and move closer to work centers and mass transit.

It’s interesting to wonder, then, what will happen to the housing being left behind by the empty nesters. In fact, some suggest that a sufficient inventory of single family detached housing already exists to supply demand for the next 20 years. Christopher Lineberger of the Brookings institute believes that all net new inventory will be attached single family homes in intensely urban settings again reflecting the desire of up to 50% of the public to live in a carefree environment with ‘walkable urbanity.

New urbanism is showing up outside of Seattle, too as planned developments are changing the waterfronts of Bremerton, Tacoma and communities like Dupont, Issaqauh Highlands, Snoqualmie Ridge and Redmond Ridge have been winners with buyers in the last 5-10 years. On the Tacoma waterfront there is a new 800 unit planned community that will be car-less with mixed use waterfront, according to the ‘Queen of Condos’ in Tacoma, Gema Powers. This appeals to my love for walking to Starbucks and the grocery store.

I’ve always thought I’d try out downtown living, especially since it’s where LTD Properties and Real Estate is located. I worry though about the lack of lawn and trees that’s you’d forgo in a high rise, and where would my husband restore his old Mustang that takes up half our garage? On the other hand, no more pulling weeks and repainting the house. I guess there’s pros and cons to all life styles, but at least we have enough alternatives that we can choose our own. It all sounds so appealing that maybe I’ll try out everything for 2 years at a time, but of course, when there are two and one doesn’t like change, I’ll have to live vicariously from friends as they embrace this new urbanism!