Category Archives: Seattle-Employers

Sunday Night Stats – Seattle Real Estate

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Median price per square foot for condos sold is starting to fall below 4th quarter of 2006 numbers, and is down 11.8% from peak pricing. 

King County Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,535 – $287, 3Q to date 895 – *$274

 

Active Listings: 3,983 – DOWN 47 – median price $319,950 – MPPSF  asking $307 (Down $3) – DOM 67 (up 2)

In Escrow:  804 –  UP 10- median asking price $289,700  – MPPSF asking $291  – DOM – 53 (up 3)

Sold YTD :  3,710- UP 650 – median list price $289,000 – median sold price  $282,450 – MPPSF – $287 (down $2) DOM 49  

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,676 – $220, 3Q to date 3,106 – *$215

*Residential median price per square foot is down another $2 per square foot since I ran the numbers two weeks ago.  That brings prices back very close to where they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2006.

Some sigificant changes for property in escrow.

In Escrow: 2,429 – DOWN 139- median asking price $409,950 (down $10,000) – DOM 51 (up 3) – MPPSF $197 (down $7)

SOLD YTD: 11.451 –  Actively for sale 12,027 – DOWN 280

Sold Year to Date and currently for sale are getting very close.

 

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)

Sunday Night Stats – King County

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We’re just past the halfway point on the third quarter, and condo prices are getting much lower.  Unless we see a major change in the next 5 to 6 weeks, the MPPSF is showing down over 11% from peak At $274 vs. $311.  Not a big surprise, as pending stats have been low, so it was only a matter of time before those low numbers in pending status started showing up in the closed sales.  Still I wouldn’t be surprised if they bounce up a little by the end of the 3rd Quarter.

Inventory is getting pretty darned flat.  For condos the number of properties for sale hasn’t changed much since May.  3rd week of August – 4,082, July 3,958, June 4,049, May 3,953.  Pretty much flat for four months in a row.

I’m not even going to talk about pending sales as there is so much junk stuck in there and not closing.  For now I’m not counting anything until it actually closes.

King County Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,535 – $287, 3Q to date 685 – $274

Residential properties seem to be holding on to value a little better than condos, but still showing more weakness now than they have since late last year.  MPPSF is only down 5% – 6% from the peak of $230 to current numbers of $217, and we may not see much of a change in those numbers by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Inventory in the single family markets has flattened out a bit, but only in the last 30 days or so.  Some of that is being caused by people renting instead of selling or pulling their properties off market to wait for next Spring.

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,676 – $220, 3Q to date 2,366 – $217

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)

As is true most years, the prices will start to be better for buyers from now through year end.  In the hot markets of the past few years, that only meant that appreciation would slow down.  But this year and last year, the prices just kept getting better and better…for buyers that is.  If you can wait a year or two, I think prices will be even lower.  But if you plan to buy in the next 6-9 months…the next 3 may be better than waiting just a few months longer.

Sold, Sold and Sold again

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One of the best ways to find accurate data as to home prices and appreciation levels is to find homes that have sold a few times recently, that have had no upgrades since the time they were built.

Sold New on 3/30/93 for $210,000

Sold again on 2/27/03 for $349,300

Sold again on 7/8/05 for $466,000

Sold again on 6/25/08 for $540,000

Appreciated by 66% in the first 10 years.

Appreciated an additional 33% from 2/03 to 7/05

Appreciated an additional 15.8% from 7/05 to 6/08

No granite countertops or stainless steel appliances.  No upgrades except maybe some updated paint colors.  A run of the mill 2,300 sf four bedroom 2 1/2 bath home in a good school district.

It was on the market for 75 days or so and had a $50,000 price reduction before it sold for $10,000 to $15,000 less than that.  Would it have been worth closer to the original $600,000 list price if the market hadn’t slowed down?  Probably.

Sunday Night Stats – Where's the market heading?

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Tonight I want to get an idea of where the market is heading as we go into July, as to prices.  I’m going to bulk together some Zip Codes that I personally follow, to have a large enough area to be meaningful, and yet zero in on local at the same time.

I’m getting the data as I am typing, so I have no idea how the numbers will fall.  We’ll find out together.

First Group: 98033, 98052, 98004, 98005, 98007 and 98008 on a combined basis.

Residential:

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $652,450 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $625,000.  Median days on market of those sold homes was 68 days and 27.66% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $267.66

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price $643,500.  Median Sold Price $630,000.  Median Days on Market 41 and 38.28% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $272.72

June 2008: median Asking Price $710,000.  median sold price $690,000. Median days on market 61 and 33.58% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.10

July month to date: Median Asking Price $650,000.  median sold price $639,000.  Median days on market 50 and 30.92% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.57.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,520 sf home.

Some pretty large homes are in escrow with the median square footage of all homes in escrow at 2,660 and a medain price per square foot of $262.20.  Of course that $262.20 is asking price and not sold price, so prices are trending down from July 1 to present.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $699,000.  Median Sold Price $685,000.  Median days on market 21 and 61.09% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $292.73.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,340 sf home.

Interesting July stats so far.  The size of home is larger, the price is lower.  More home for less money as I said last week.  Very Interesting.  But the numbers are so different from May and June. Fewer houses sold quickly.  This data is worth tracking week to week, especially as we head into fall.

Second Group Seattle 98115 and 98103 on a combined basis excluding townhomes (townhomes on Eastside automatically not included for the most part, as on The Eastside townhomes are condos and not residential). Trying to keep this apples to apples.

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $540,000 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $522,500  Median days on market of those sold homes was 51 days and 29.57% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.64

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price $595,000.  Median Sold Price $580,000.  Median Days on Market 20 and 61.97% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.51

June 2008: median Asking Price $550,000.  median sold price $546,000. Median days on market 29 and 54,02% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $265.04

July month to date: Median Asking Price $567,450.  median sold price $553,450.  Median days on market 23 and 56.90% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $261.67.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,115 sf home.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $567,000.  Median Sold Price $569,500.  Median days on market 13 and 75.93% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $273.79.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,080 sf home.

The median asking price of all pending sales is $535,000 and the median square footage is 2,085.  Looks like better “deals” are in escrow as we speak at $256.59 MPPSF as to ASKING prices with that number to be pared down further as to sold prices.

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)


Unless someone asks for the regular weekly King County Stats, I’ll post them over on my blog tomorrow.  It’s been a long, back-breaking day for me.  I was more interested in finding out where the market was heading, than posting overall King County since last Sunday.  But I will post them on my blog tomorrow for the benefit of those who have been charting them on Excel Spreadsheets.

Goodnight!

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You can find the regular weekly stats here.

Financing an Investment Property

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EDITORS NOTE:  Rates on this post are from 2008!  Mortgage rates for investment properties are much lower now! Contact your local licensed mortgage originator for a current rate quote.

Obtaining a mortgage for a non-owner occupied propery is much different than buying one you will reside in.  For starters, qualifying is tougher and mortgage interest rates are higher as it’s a riskier transaction for the lender.   Here are some quick tips to help get you started if you’re considering buying an investment property.

Plan on using at least 20% for your down payment plus closing costs.   With a 25 or 30% down payment, you will receive a slightly better interest rate.   Just to give you an idea, here is a sample of some current rates based on a single family dwelling with a sales price of $450,000 for a 30 year fixed mortgage and a minimum 720 credit score:

Owner Occupied with minimum 20% down:  5.75% priced with 1% origination/discount point (APR 5.904%)

Non-Owner Occupied (NOO) with 20% down: 6.375% with 1% point (APR 6.537%)

NOO with 25% down: 6.250% with 1% point (APR 6.413%)

NOO with 30% down: 6.125% with 1% point (APR 6.289%)

Of course, you can always pay more in points to have a lower rate.   This is just to provide you with an apples to apples comparison.

There are two camps for qualifying for an investment property:  those who are proven at managing rentals and those who are buying a rental for the first time or who have less than 2 years history.  If you have less than a 2 year history, then it’s likely that you will not be able to use rent credit from the proposed purchase.  Lenders allow 75%  of the rent to be used for qualifying purposes.   Proving you’re a financially successful landlord to the underwriter will take your last two year’s complete tax returns including the Schedule E’s.   If you can qualify for the full PITI payment on the investment property along with your current PITI payment on your residence, then the underwriter may only require a regular appraisal.  Otherwise, count on the appraisal costing almost twice as much as a typical appraisal for conventional financing.   Fannie and Freddie also require a minimum of 6 months reserves (cash assets after closing) for NOO borrowers.

Odds and Ends

  • FHA can be a great way for first time buyers to get into the investor market when they’re buying a 2-4 unit home.  The buyer must occupy in one of the units and the mortgage will be treated as an “owner occupied” transaction.   You will have upfront and monthly mortgage insurance and can buy with as little as 3% down payment.
  • Second homes are sometimes treated as investment properties.  This is really up to the underwriter.  Typically if the home is located within 50 miles of the borrowers residence or if it does not make sense as a second or vacation home, the underwriter may determine that it’s an investment which means tougher underwriting and the NOO rate.
  • Fannie Mae programs exist that help family members buy properties that don’t meet the second home requirements without treating it as an investment purchase (Family Opportunity Mortgage).

As always, I highly recommend that you meet with your local Mortgage Professional as soon as possible if you’re even just considering obtain a mortgage for any reason (investment property, residencial purchase or refi, vacation home, etc.).

 

Sunday Night Stats on Monday Morning

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Did you ever work so hard in a week, that you just needed to lay down for 20 minutes after dinner and didn’t wake up until the next morning!?  Sure you did.  It happens to all of us.  Well, that’s what happened to me last night after my Open House in Bryant and after inputting a new listing in Redmond.  Just took a nap and never woke up until 6:00 a.m this morning.

In this business the days sometimes just keep running together one after the other and you forget when you last had a day off, or a haircut, or your nails done.  You just keep working day after day until the job is done, and the time frame just keeps switching from this “right now” to the next “right now”.

There is no “have a nice weekend” in real estate.  There is no “what’s your schedule like” in real estate.  On any given day the phone rings and sets a chain of events into motion that has no end until the work is done.  And when your clients have small children, you really roll up your sleeves and pitch in until the house is ready for market.  I have 4 sets of clients with children, all getting their houses ready for market, and 2 of the 4 moving to new houses nearby.  The work is back-breaking, but very satisfying when the job is done and the home is photo ready and Open House ready and Broker’s Open ready, and then you do the photos and the Open Houses and the Broker’s Opens, and it just keeps going until the house is sold.

Everyone wants a list of what an agent does.  Truth is we do whatever it takes to achieve the objective.  Everyone working all at the same time, owners of the homes and agents alike, all working toward the common goal of getting everything just so and on market.

Whether it’s a home built in 1910 in Bryant:

Seattle Home in Bryant

Bryant Home

Or a newer townhome in Redmond:

Rivertrail in Redmond TownhomeRivertrail Townhome

Perfection is the expectation of buyers.  So you just keep working till you get it as perfect as you can.  And the poor Moms who live there with their small children, have the undaunting task of trying to keep it that way day after day.  Getting the kids ready for school and leaving the house in perfect order for showings, is no easy feat.

So this Mother’s Day I ask that you all give honor to the Mom’s with homes on market…and the Mom’s like me who turn into everyone’s Mom when helping them get the job done.

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And now for Sunday Night Stats on Monday Morning.  I won’t be doing the April month end stats until next week, as there will be many month end closings posted during this week.  So let’s just do the normal weekly stuff. 

I expect if I’m this busy getting properties on market, two on and at least three to go over the next few weeks, that every agent is busy prepping homes to get them on market.  So inventory should be rising even more in the next 30 days.

King County Residential:

For Sale:  9,372 at a million or less – DOM 53 – MPPSF $225.58 and 1,591 over $1M – DOM 68 – MPPSF $371 Total Residential King County homes on market this morning 10,963.  That is 135 more than last week, after netting out those that went into escrow from those that came on market this week.

In Escrow: 2,750 – DOM 45 – MPPSF $212, that’s 81 less than last week due to month end closings with MPPSF dropping from $214 to $212.  That reflects a drop in asking prices, not sold prices.  Expectation is the sold prices of those 2,750 will be less than the $212 MPPSF asking prices.  Though some did sell for over asking price with multiple offers, the median will likely be more like $210 or so.

Closed YTD: 5,109.  That’s 463 more than last week with DOM of 51 days and MPPSF of $220 for the year to date which is up a buck for closed sales.

Given the median days on market for In Escrow is going down, the price issue of down to $212 MPPSF for those in escrow, is likely due to increased competition and homes coming on market being more realistically priced to sell.  At least for the ones that are actually selling and going into escrow.

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King County Condos:

For Sale:  3,784 – that’s 10 more on a net basis than last week.  DOM 57 – MPPSF $323 (about the same)

In Escrow: 900 – that’s 46 less than last week due to month end closings – DOM up from 43 to 48 – MPPSF up from $303 to $305.  Remember those are asking prices, not sold prices.

Sold YTD: 1,675 up 158 over last week – DOM 48 – MPPSF $288 – that is DOWN from $290 last week and EQUAL to the MPPSF of 2007 all months combined.  Given most of last year was strong, condos just now reaching MPPSF of all of last year is a pretty strong statistic for condos.  You would think all of this year would be equal to the last 5 months of 2007.  But they are still running high relative to 2007 compared to the single family home market, but starting to dip on a YOY basis, which is to be expected. 

Amazing how strong the condo market is.  I suspect new construction and condo conversions are giving resale condos a run for their money and strong competition.  That is keeping the MPPSF up, though for resale…not necessarily so.

That’s it for Stats this week.  When I do month end stats for end of April YOY next week, we’ll break down some of the areas like “within 2 miles of Microsoft” and certain Zip Codes from weak ones to strong ones.  So if you are hoping to see a break down of a given area, it’s time to get your requests in for next week.      

One of our agents listed a property at $350,000 in Tacoma three weeks ago and has had NOT ONE showing since it was listed.  My listing in Bryant listed at $529,950 had 6 showings in the first two days + more than 20 people at the first Open House yesterday.  So there is a lot of difference in activity from one area to the next.

Getting the property ready for market, and good photos, have become critically important.  No more stick the sign up “as-is” and wait for offer…    

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World

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Well, Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World competition is about over, and this is the last post I will write about the contest. My original post has been running at #1 and #2 for most of the competition. At several points during the competition I have had two of the top 10 spots between the post noted and this post.

What we were supposed to learn was that some people are really good at getting attention by writing good content (not that I’m proud of either of my posts on this topic and all the screwing around I’ve done with them). And other people are really good at getting the attention of the Search Engines because they are good at getting the attention of the Search Engines.

In the true spirit of the contest, I’m going to name my chosen winner.

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World I’m giving to Kevin Tomlinson and his blog efforts as to content, and Brad Caroll of Dakno Marketing who provides the technical support for Kevin’s site and his blog.

Why do I choose them as the winners of Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World? Because I can’t tell which is most responsible for the success of Kevin’s blog.

Is it Kevin’s writing style and good content? Is it Brad’s ability to gain the favor of the SEO God’s through other means? Is it Kevin’s great website that creates what it takes to pull the blog up with it?

Or maybe it’s just because Kevin IS a great agent and so everything he does, he does just as well as he does his real estate activities, including hiring the best people and directing them to their best efforts on his behalf and on behalf of his clients.

And that’s the real success story and the real lesson about SEO placement. It takes a great team. Simply being a great agent is often not enough. Simply being a great blogger is often not enough. Hiring someone to toy around with the Search Engines to bring a mediocre or bad site to the top of the heap, is not going to help you if what readers find at the top of the search is not worth reading, or the agent isn’t worth hiring.

Kevin is the winner because he has it all. No one should have to fight over whether it was Kevin’s talent or Brad’s talent that makes the package work.

It shouldn’t be EITHER content OR SEO knowledge. It should be the best marriage of both worlds.

Greatest Real Estate Agent in The WORLD

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…is some kind of SEO contest.

The prize looks kind of bogus to me.

“First place winner receives ummmm lets see – Ok a free REW template website ($740 value) Free hosting for a year on the new V 2.0 REW platform ($480) and throw in our $2500 CORE IDX and the $360 yearly fee on top of it – that works out to ummmm – let’s see about $4080 for first place – how’s THAT for a prize :)”

How do you read that prize?

I’m seeing the winner gets to pay at least $480 to them for hosting the “prize” for every year after the “free” year. The winner also gets to pay them another $360 a year ad infinitum for Core IDX services.

Who exactly is the winner in the long run?

******UPDATE****

It is my understanding that as a result of this post, the prize has been changed to include free hosting indefinitely.

***UPDATE***

I have a special request to update this post. I generally don’t do that, but at someone’s urgence that I expand the initial topic, I will.

Search Engines are trying very hard to serve a purpose on the internet. That purpose is to seek out and display good and valuable content. That is good for everyone, if allowed to perform its function.

However, some will try to trick the Search Engines into thinking that they have good and valuable content. They think this is a smart thing to do. Some even think it is great to charge people money to help them trick the Search Engines. This is a sin against not the Search Engines, but the general public, who rely on the internet to perform well. When someone searches a topic they are happy to find good and valuable content as the Search Engines intended. They are not happy to find a trickster who fooled the Search Engine into thinking they had good and valuable content.

Gaming the system is not good.

Sunday Night Stats – King County

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King County – Residential

For sale – 8,680 – UP 172

In Escrow – 2,064 – UP 158

Closed month to date – 608 – UP 169

 

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 3,009 – UP 80

In escrow – 823 – UP 25 – 2.6% of those are contingent contracts

Closed month to date –  204 – UP 60

Next week I’ll have to post both end of month and Sunday night stats plus YOY closings for the month of January.

Single family home market keeping pretty good pace with those closing and going into escrow vs. coming on market.  Condos not so good.  Hard to believe that with over 3,000 on market, only 18 went into escrow two weeks ago and 25 this past week.  If the condos don’t move, the single family market will see the consequences of that come Spring and Summer.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

Sunday Night Stats

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So far it looks like sellers have a 50% chance of selling vs. last year.  I’ll keep tabs on that as we go.  You were twice as likely to sell your house last year as this year, if you put it on market.  For those of you who think it’s a new year and if it didn’t sell last year it’s time to raise the price…I’d rethink that.  Hopefully low interest rates will improve the stats moving forward.  But I wouldn’t count on the improvement being more than a 66.6% chance of selling.  We’re not talking about selling at the price you want.  We’re talking about selling at all.  Not a good time to be stubborn or overly optimistic.  You have until 4/1/08 to get real with your pricing, or possibly be back on market in 2009.  Stop pricing off what other people are asking.  Stick close to the comps this year.  No more than 5% over the comps is a good rule of thumb.  And don’t skimp on condition.  Condition will be the MOST important factor in 2008, second to not pricing more than 5% over the comps.

King County – Residential

For sale – 8,508 – UP 132

In Escrow – 1,906 – UP 97 – 6.5% of those are contingent contracts

Closed month to date – 439 – UP 203

 

King County – Condo Market

For sale – 2,929 – UP 59

In escrow – 798 – UP 18 – 2.6% of those are contingent contracts

Closed month to date –  144 – UP 75

UP means over last Sunday’s data.  Sales of single family homes kept pretty good pace against homes coming on market this week.  But still running at about half the pace of this time last year.  Let’s assume 1/3 of the buyer pool is gone and that this year’s sales will be 2/3rds of last year in total number of properties sold.  That’s my prediction based on what we’re seeing so far.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.