Baby Boomers Retire

Reverse Mortgages Gain Popularity

“Baby Boomers,” people born between 1946−1964, will begin to retire in large numbers. As a result, the demographic shock of a shrinking labor force and its effect on Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. By 2030, about 20% of the American population is expected to be 65 or older, according to the Social Security Advisory Board (SSAB).

With rising costs of living and a dwindling budget to accommodate the elderly and disabled, we will see increased usage of the reverse mortgage. This loan allows equity to be taken out of the home to meet day−to−day expenses, and was designed in the late 1980s to help those who owned property, but lacked sufficient income to live on. However, there are benefits and disadvantages to be known before going into this type of loan. In most loan scenarios a home will go into foreclosure if payment is not made. If payments are made, the debt decreases and equity increases. The opposite holds true for a reverse
mortgage; equity is taken out of the home to sustain the family, causing debt to increase while equity decreases. There is an exception − if the actual value of the home increases, less equity will be lost overall.


Most reverse mortgages are set up so there is no monthly payment as long as the owner or co−owner(s) resides in the home. There are no minimum income requirements, and the money can be used for any purpose. Equity disbursed from this type of loan is tax−free. Depending on the type of plan, reverse mortgages will usually allow the owner to retain the title to the property until they have lived in a different residence for 12 months, sell the property, die, or the end of the loan term is reached.

On the flip side, reverse mortgages can be more costly than a normal equity loan. Interest is added to the principal balance each month, and the amount of interest owed is compounded over time. The interest will not be tax deductible until the loan is paid off, in part or in full. Also, since the reverse mortgage uses equity in the property, this constitutes a loss of assets one could pass on to heirs.

The Federal Trade Commission warns of abuse with this type of loan, as they have received reports of predatory lenders taking advantage of the elderly. It is best for the individual interested in a reverse mortgage to research and obtain counsel from reputable sources.* HUD does not recommend consulting an estate planning service to obtain a referral to a lender. HUD provides this information free to the public. Even if the home was not originally an FHA loan, the reverse mortgage can be federally secured.

*Visit the HUD page on this subject at http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/hecm/rmtopten.cfm, consult AARP (American Association of Retired Persons) at http://www.aarp.org, and the National Center for Home Equity Conversion at http://www.reverse.org.

Ballard Treasure: Hiram M. Chittenden Locks

[photopress:404_0447_IMG.JPG,thumb,alignright]This is the first post in what I hope will be a regular feature. My plan is to post on local treasures… Potential topics include interesting places, events, people, businesses that make Seattle a special place to live.

The Hiram M. Chittendem Locks (also known as the Ballard Locks)
map

What are they?
The Ballard locks opened in 1916 and were built to raise or lower vessels 6 to 26 feet (depending on tide and lake level) to compensate for the difference between the levels of Lake Washington and Puget Sound. Back when the locks were first designed and built, Ballard was a major economic center with a substantial portion of Seattle’s fishing and freight traffic passing through this area. Today, commercial fishing boats still pass through the locks but almost all of the freight traffic has moved to much larger and deeper ports in other parts of the state. The majority of the boat traffic passing through the locks are personal boats either returning from an ocean trip (likely to the beautiful San Juan islands) or a visiting boat from some other part of the world.

How do the locks work?
Think of it like a huge modified bathtub. The important elements of this bathtub are that it has a plug (to stop water), a spigot (to let water in) and two gates (one on the freshwater side and one on the saltwater side). In order to get a boat from the saltwater to the freshwater, the saltwater-side gate is opened and the boat enters. Then the saltwater gate is closed (forming a bathtub) and the tub is plugged. When the spigot is turned on, freshwater fills the water level of the bathtub up to the level of the freshwater canal (thanks to gravity!). Then the freshwater-side gate is opened and the boat can enter the canal.

At this point, boats that want to go from freshwater to saltwater can enter the bathtub. Once the freshwater-side gate has been closed, the plug is pulled causing the water-level to fall until it reaches the level of the saltwater. At this point the saltwater-side gate is opened and a boat can enter the salt water!

Other Activities at the Locks
In addition to watching the boats rise and fall with the water level at the locks, there are other activities at the Ballard Locks that can make for a wonderful afternoon. There is a nearby Salmon run and during the summer, some interesting gardens and sculptures, and the grounds are home to some great entertainment on weekends during the summer.

From the locks it is just a short walk along a spillway to get to the “fish ladder” that allows fish to bypass the locks and get to their natual habitat on Lake Washington and beyond. Sockeye, Chinook and Coho salmon, as well as cutthroat trout and steelhead use the ladder to migrate through the canal to Lake Washington. All of this is fun and educational making it a great place to take kids!

Another fun activity at the Ballard Locks is to visit the beautiful botanical gardens. Spreading over seven acres bordering on the canal are some 500 species and 1,500 varieties of mature trees, shrubs and flowers from all over the world. In addition, a small stage is set up most weekend days during the summer on a grassy knoll making this a fun place to spread a blanket and enjoy a picnic.

More links:

Do you have an idea for a local treasure that you’d like to see featured on Rain City Guide? Let me know.

The future does not belong to the collective, long-term agent

I’ve been having an interesting dialog (via email) with a real estate agent who I completely respect. He brings up some interesting issues that I thought were worth bringing to the general public (these ideas want to be free instead of locked up in Google’s email archive 🙂 )

…I can certainly appreciate their (Trulia) desire to ‘break the monopoly’ but keep in mind that the MLS is just a compilation of broker-represented listings. Brokers own those listing and ultimately decide where they go for marketing purposes. ‘Breaking the monopoly’ would mean one would either have to get consensus of a critical mass of the Brokers (90%+) or become a broker oneself and start listing lots of homes. Both are unlikely… Much better to find a way to accomplish the goal of improving search within the ground rules of existing copyright law (think old Napster, new Napster)…

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I really dislike the inefficiencies in the current MLS system, and yet, I can see how everyone benefits from the increased information sharing. If the choice was between the current MLS set-up and a situation where agents all held onto their own data, I’d definitely prefer the current MLS situation…

sunflowersBut that’s not the choice anymore. Before the advent of the internet, it was only logical that agents needed to work together and form a cooperating system so that they could share listing information. And I can totally understand that agents needed listing rules in order to ensure that one rogue agent (or homeowner) didn’t screw up the whole listing situation. I can completely appreciate this history…

But what I’ve described is the historical legacy of the the MLS, not the future. The internet has changed the situation dramatically by making the sharing of information extremely easy! Rather than protecting themselves from one rogue agent or one greedy home owner, real estate agents now need to protect themselves from an onslaught! There is no way that a company that aggregated listing data from agents (as in Trulia) could have been built 10 years ago. And yet today, it seems shocking that such a site wasn’t available a week ago.

I think the comparisons to between Trulia and the old Napster are misleading, and ultimately wrong.

But first the similarities: The old Napster was fought by the recording industry because they facilitated the sharing of valuable information (music), just as Trulia will likely be fought by the real estate industry because they are facilitating the sharing of valuable information (listings).

But the way that music and listings gain value could not be more different.
The value of music is embedded in each and every song and can be easily monetized for consumers (Recording industry: “that song will be 99 cents!”). The value of listings are embedded in the entirety of all the listings and each individual listing cannot be easily monetized for consumers (Real estate industry: “that listing will be 99 cents!”).

Flag over waterBut far more important… The ultimate client of the recording industry (musicians) benefit only if a song is sold and not if it is illegally downloaded. In contrast, the ultimate client of the real estate industry (home buyers and sellers) benefits every time a listing is seen (illegally or not!). As these aggregating services become more and more popular (options like Trulia, Craigslist, Ebay Real Estate, Google Classifieds, and Zillow), real estate agents are going to be constantly challenged to decide between their individual AND short-term interest (list the home as widely as possible) and their collective AND long-term interest (keep their monopoly on listings!).

In the battle of individual/short-term interests vs. collective/long-term interests, I’d put my money behind the former every time.

More on Trulia and their attitude

I noticed that I’m getting a bunch of hits going to my “general real estate” category. It’s odd because it doesn’t appear that any of you are coming from another webpage (there’s no “referrer”). Is there an email being passed around linking people to my website? If so, I’d be very interested in seeing this email! Can you forward a copy to anna@raincityguide.com?

If I had to take a guess, I’d say that the email is probably titled “More on Trulia.com and their attitude.”

Agents: Are you prepared?

[photopress:richard_williams_mining.jpg,thumb,alignright]In response to my post highlighting how great the technology behind Trulia is, I received some emails from real estate agents who completely disagreed with me, although only one agent, John Lockwood , took the initiative to responded on the record). Thank you John! I’m going to pick on your comments in this post only because you had the willingness to state a lot of agent’s fears publicly… With that said, I continue to welcome your feedback!

Hoarding the data? That’s a good one. Have you seen my Sacramento Search Page — to name just one place where I’m not hoarding it? I make my living publishing the data, and I’m licensed to make my living publishing it.

John, I clicked on your search site the other day for the first time, and I felt like I’d seen the site a million times before. The search is bad and does not serve your clients well. Sure you’ve published the homes that are for sale, but you haven’t added anything of value that I couldn’t get from 1000 other real estate sites in Sacramento. You haven’t taken it to the next step and provided anything particularly useful to your potential clients. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the goal of your search site is to tease your potential clients so that they will call on you to find out whether or not a particular home will work for them. And I don’t blame you for any of this because the coding required to build a more interactive site that would really serve your clients is very tricky. In reality, you are running on a business model that has been very successful and easily replicated all over the country.

I want a real estate search site that provides more useful information? I want recommendations. I want to know if the home is a good value. I want to know if the neighborhood is appropriate for me. You’re website provides none of that… and I’m not a good enough coder myself to implement any of these improvements. I think the search site that you offer lacks so much consumer friendliness, that I don’t even bother putting a link to my version of it on this site’s sidebar. Making interactive websites that improve with user experience is what gets the self-proclaimed web geeks all excited and sure that Trulia represents the first example of real estate entering the next version of the web.

[photopress:polina_vasily_stalin.jpg,full,alignleft]While the times are changing in the real estate industry, I think the majority of people WILL always want some expert advice before buying a home. It is not like buying a plane ticket, and consequently, the internet will not replace real estate agents in the same way it has replace travel agents. A home is simply too big of a purchase for most people to feel comfortable making it over the internet.

Onto another of your points, I wish I could say that I had more respect for a real estate license, but I don’t. (Considering you are from California, you might be interested to know that I’m licensed to practice traffic engineering in your state.) Recently, I decided it might be useful for me to have a real estate license, so I spent $250 and took an on-line course. It was the “60-hour” course that is required before you can take the Washington state exam. It was so easy, I doubt I spent 30 hours in total reading through their material and answering the multiple-choice questions. For comparison, I had to get a four-year degree and spend month’s studying before I was ready to take the all-day traffic engineering test. For me, all a real estate license means is that the person meets a minimal level of competency. It is all too common to find a licensed real estate agent who is simply not knowledgeable enough to do a good job. You have to search much harder to find a licensed lawyer, doctor, or engineer who simply cannot do their job.

Reading through the rest of John’s comments, I only have one general “big picture” comment. Nobody owes real estate agents anything, least of all their clients. That is an important enough comment to repeat in a different form. Home buyers and sellers do not owe real estate agents anything. Maybe it’s just the engineer in me that hates inefficiencies, but if someone else can provide a tool that makes home buyers and sellers better off, it is the real estate agents that need to adapt. Buyers and sellers should not have to adapt to an inefficient system designed by real estate agents for the benefit of real estate agents.

[photopress:hurley_patterson_cousins.jpg,thumb,alignright]So where does this leave us…

It won’t take long for the industry to see some major changes. It may be through Trulia and their opt-in database. It may be from some type of Craigslist on steroids (think Google Classifieds). It may be the product of a dream from Rich Barton or Barry Dillar. Whatever the solution is, it is being created right now and it will provide huge benefits to home buyers and sellers. All this is happening while NAR still has it’s head in the sand and is worrying about whether or not discount brokers can get access to MLS listings

Does this mean that every real estate agent is going to be out of a job in a year? No way! There are still so many people that require the expert handholding of a well-informed agent. However, it does bring up some interesting questions for real estate agents who rely on the internet to get clients:

Are you preparing for a time when everyone will have access to better information? How? Are you just planning to fight these changes? Most importantly, do you have a web strategy to take advantage of these changes?

Keeping Real Estate Entertaining…

[photopress:twinkies.jpg,thumb,alignright]
David A. Smith, founder of the Affordable Housing Institute, has a great blog that is loaded with articles that are both interesting and informative (is that possible?). In terms of readability, his posts are up there with grow-a-brain except David keeps more focused on real estate.

He posts on a wide variety of topics. Today he gives some lessons on how home owners can learn from haggling in third world contries in the Economics of Haggling. A few days ago he had an article (What destroyed your home first) where he relates the killing of Rasputin to whether or not insurance companies will pay to rebuild homes in New Orleans (read the article and it will make sense!).

All in all, David is a great writer, and if you’re interested in real estate, I highly recommend adding him to your reading list.

Trulia better real estate search

Just as the pun is obvious, the implementation by Pete Flint and his crew at RealWide of a new real estate search engine is obviously awesome… Their new real estate search engine available and can be found at: Trulia.com

If you’ve been reading my posts for a while, then you know I’ve been following the development of new mapping technologies pretty darn closely and this is far-and-away the best implementation yet. Pete and his crew didn’t take anything for granted and put together a whole new real estate search engine! I mentioned that this site was coming out a few weeks ago, and the implementation lives up to everything Pete told me it would be.

So here’s some features I like love:

  • The search interface is as simple as entering a city name or a zip code! The UI is beautiful.
  • The filtering by other features like Price, Bedrooms, Bathrooms and Price is fast and very intuitive!
  • When click on more detail for a listing, you get the VERY useful information like the price per square foot, the days on the market, as well as details for other recently sold homes and similar homes in the area!
  • The color coded recently sold homes is awesome!
  • I really like the the location of your search is stored in the url. This allows me to easily save and or send an area of interest. For example, here are the homes for sale in the part of Los Angeles where I grew up: http://www.trulia.com/CA/Eagle_Rock/90041/. (Also notice that it has neighborhood facts on this page.)
  • It has RSS feeds so that I can subscribe to my zip code and be updated each time a listing comes on the market.
  • And the best part is that I’m sure there’s more I’m going to like, but I’ve only had a few minutes to play!

I really liked the site when I first saw it, but the more I play the more my opinion of the site improves. The best part is that I’m pretty darn sure that if I keep playing with the site, I’m going to find more gems! This site is a true work of art! Thank you Pete!

The only problem I see with it is that it is not available for Seattle (yet!). THIS IS A HUGE DRAWBACK. I want Trulia! And Pete, I’ll wait for a little while, but I’m not a very patient person! 🙂

UPDATE: I just got an email from Pete and he says “You’ll be pleased to hear our primary focus is building out coverage to other states. No promises when Seattle is live, but we’re working hard on it.” I’ll try to be patient!

The Reservations of Greenspan

Church Scene It’s no surprise that Alan Greenspan remains highly skeptical of the housing market, and considering he has access to a lot more data (and a lot better researchers!), I’m going to defer to him on the national issues.

Greenspan continued to register concern about soaring house prices and risky mortgages on expensive homes.

He also repeated his warning about signs of “froth” developing in some local markets that may be driving house prices to “unsustainable levels.”

Here’s are two quotes I found interesting:

  • “The vast majority of homeowners have a sizable equity cushion with which to absorb a potential decline in house prices”
  • “Speculative activity may have had a greater role in generating the recent price increases than it customarily had had in the past”

I think these quotes explain why the Seattle market is going to be fine despite his reservations. The employment market is healthy and I haven’t seen the type of speculation that is occurring in the SouthWest. Here’s a link I wrote a few weeks ago on the riskiness of the Seattle market.

Rising tide lifts all ships…

revenueWho benefits when housing prices rise? The sellers, of course… But also the local governments though increased property tax revenue. The Seattle PI has an article on how the mayor of Seattle has $15 million to spread around thanks to rising home prices:

In 2000 the average value of a residence in Seattle was $232,800, on which the property tax paid to state and local government was just under $2,832, according to the King County Department of Assessments. In 2005 the average home value had gone up to $368,700 with a property tax bill of just over $3,765.19.

The Seattle general fund budget proposed by Nickels for 2006 is $760 million, up from $717 million last year. It includes more money for street resurfacing and more money for sidewalks, police and firefighters.

“Thanks to a strong local economy, we can expect significantly more sales and business tax revenue,” Nickels said in his budget address Monday. “Strong real estate sales will also provide much more revenue for the city than initially forecast.”

I find the similarities interesting between this article and my post from Monday, where I note that the Federal government (IRS) benefits when flippers don’t pay attention to tax laws.

More In-depth Sale Price vs List Price Analysis

Me and my sistersIf you were following the comments from my post from yesterday, I said I would follow up with another stab at diving into how the sales prices versus listing price changes over time. Seeing as how it is already getting late (and I’m tired!), I’m going to stop trying to make sense out of the numbers and present what I’ve found so far.

However, before I go any further, I’m going to rant at my fellow real estate agents! For the sake of all of us who actually care about data, please learn to double check your work before submitting listing information to the MLS! I spent more time cleaning up the database due to lazy real estate agents then I did actually creating the charts! Here are some things to look out for (but this list is by no means exhaustive): (1) Spelling: Fremont is spelled with only one “e”, (2) Location: South Lake Union is not a neighborhood located within Ballard and (3)Price: your home that sold for $345,000 probably should not have been listed for $34,500,000.

With that rant out of the way, I thought I would also mention that I’m not the only one surprised by housing numbers today… Hot Property had an article where Amey Stone says reading NAR’s press releases on sales levels “is starting to be a bit of a yawn — sales weren’t quite at record levels, but darn near close to it.” Unless you get tickled by trends and statistics, expect to sleep through the rest of this post…

When I look at the entire Ballard Area as defined by the MLS (this is a huge area that includes places like Greenlake, Blue Ridge, Wallingford, Fremont, Sunset Hill etc). We see the same seasonal trends over the past two years that I identified yesterday. But when we go back another season, the trend becomes much less pronounced.

Adjusted vs Original List Price Chart

Here are the things I found most interesting about the chart:

  1. The seasonal variation is much less pronounced in previous years
  2. There has been a steady trend up wards where the sale price is greater than the listing price
  3. In terms of trends, it didn’t really matter whether I used the original list price or the adjusted list price.
  4. The huge drop in 08/03 is due to some homes in Broadview that were listed way to high!

My speculation is that the patterns identified the above chart have a lot to do with evolving sales tactics by agents. It seems like it has become more and more common for agents to list a home below the value that they think it will sell for… This does two things: (1) It assures a quick sale and therefore a quick commission for the agent. (2) It has the potential to bring in more buyers and thereby raise the final sale price of the home.

When I went to analyze the data at a more local level, things got much messier… Rather than seeing clear seasonal patterns as I did in Loyal Heights, things simply got fuzzy. They got so fuzzy that I’m hesitant to even provide the next chart because it simply looks like an ugly mess…

My goal in creating the chart was to see if the same trend that held up in my analysis yesterday for Loyal Heights, would hold up for other neighborhoods. As the chart above demonstrates, it roughly holds up for all of Ballard, but as the chart below demonstrates, it does not hold up at the neighborhood level. I’ve done enough regression analysis for transportation planning studies to know that a chart like this is going to give meaningless trends.

Sale Price as a Percent of Listing Price for Ballard Neighborhoods

By the way, if you’re interested in the raw data that I used to create these statistics, just email me, and I can send you the Excel file that has all the wonderful (?) pivot tables and charts I used in creating this post.

Also, please feel free to comment on other ideas you might have for exploring the wealth of information that is locked up behind the MLS database. Anna has the key that opens that door! 🙂