Why I Read Seattle Bubble

I use to stop by and read seattlebubble once a week. Now I visit several times a day. The place to go is the forums, where other seattlebubble readers stop by to put all kinds of interesting questions up for debate, offer interesting articles about the current state of the industry that I may have missed during the day, provide critical analysis of real estate statistics, debate what’s being said in the main stream media, and I like this blog for the entertainment, which is really what blogs can be at times: entertaining.

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When I first visited seattlebubble in early 2007, I found the voices of people who were questioning mainstream real estate industry tactics and strategies that I too had questioned during the bubble run-up years. I believe we have a lot to learn from people who do not necessarily agree with us. If raincityguide is mainstream rock and roll, seattlebubble is alternative punk rock. If raincityguide is macaroni and cheese, seattlebubble is mac and cheese with ketchup. If raincityguide is “No Country For Old Men,” seattlebubble is “I Drink Your Milkshake.”

Real estate agents in Seattle should read seattlebubble because there’s a good chance that your customers are reading it.

So why do I bring this up today? Seattlebubble has made it to the semifinals of the metroblogging contest. Simple concepts of game theory are played out here: what is good for your competition is also good for you. Cast your vote for seattlebubble here.

A while back I spelled Seatttle with…

three “t’s” on the sidepanel and was surprised just how much traffic it brought. Because I was more concerned with being professional than traffic, I fixed the type, but Mary just reminded me of the effectiveness of the error, so I thought I’d try it out again! 🙂

And if you are looking for Seattle real estate information, dont’ be discouraged if you landed on this page! 😉 We’ve got tons of great stuff on this site!

To highlight just a few: Ardell gives local condition stats ever Sunday, Rhonda provides mortgage rate updates every Friday, and I wrote a post about moving to Seatttle a while back that is loaded with questions, answers, insights, dangers, etc. from people. (There are almost 500 comments to date!)

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World

Greatest Real Estate Agent in the World contest is getting a bit testy. Apparently my comments regarding “credibility” were personalized by the contest sponsor. I love his comments “you think you can walk into someone else’s house and tell them to start moving the furniture around because YOU aren’t close enough to the TV”

Hey pal, I didn’t walk into your house, you invited us to be in this contest to “learn something from one another”. Did you mean learn something from you? Sorry…I thought it was a come as you are party.

Sunday Night Stats

Before I get to the regular stats, I like to post a little something of interest that demonstrates why we are looking at the stats so closely.

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Home sales have been running fairly consistently at 32% fewer homes sold over the same month last year, which was down from the number of homes sold the year prior.

This week’s Stats:

King County Residential Sales

Active/For Sale – 9,127 – UP 110 – avg. price $729,463 – median price $519,993

In Escrow – 2,557 – UP 104 – avg. price $569,757 – median price $449,900

Closed YTD – 1,551 – UP 266 – avg. price $553,634 – median price $439,000

King Conty Condo Sales

Active/For Sale – 3,256 – UP 78 – avg. price $455,493 – median price $325,000

In Escrow – 882 – UP 20 – avg. price $$407,528 – median price $315,000

Closed YTD – 533 – 101 – avg. price $356,267 – median price $279,999

Inventory is still coming on at a faster pace than properties are selling, but the single family home market seems to be doing better with that than the condo market.

I noticed during Broker’s Opens this week that many townhomes on the Eastside are encroaching on the price range of some halfway decent single family homes. I think that is bad news for people asking a half a million dollars for older townhomes with deferred maintenance exteriors in less than stellar locations, from what I have seen.

I also see weakness in the condo markets on the Eastside, and that appears to be both due to fewer investors as well as owner-occupied buyers. So financing is not the only issue accounting for the 32% drop in sales.

Per mls rules I must state that these stats are compiled and posted by me, ARDELL, and not the NWMLS.

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.

WEB 2.0 vs. WEB 1.5 and Blogwars

“Web 2.0 can be defined as “the philosophy of mutually maximizing collective intelligence and added value for each participant by formalized and dynamic information sharing and creation.” Web 1.5 is where the information is conveyed differently by the industry practitioner, but the industry practitioner doesn’t understand that .5 of the “added value” comes from the commenter who disagrees with the post or adds more info than the post itself conveys.

Many of the blogwars going around, and not just the one involving Sellsius and BHB and 4Realz, are actually based on a growing separation involving the meaning of WEB 2.0. Just as every industry and activity since the beginning of time divides into 80% vs. 20% groups, so does the meaning of WEB 2.0. 80% will grab it as a new way to make money off of it. 20% will try to “get it” and apply it properly to the betterment of the industry as a whole. Such is life and no one can change that or stop the fights over it.

It really boils down to interpretation of “added value”. Is that value monetary? Some will erroneously assume so, as they think everything is about how to make more money. No one can change that. But the principle of WEB 2.0 is about the change in the way information is presented and BY WHOM it is presented. WEB 1.0 is a commercial – a one sided mirror. WEB 2.0 is an exchange of ideas where the general public is not the “reader” only, or the one “information is conveyed TO“, but the most important part of the information process and where the “added value” comes from.

If you argue your right to control information, as the information may not be conducive to your monetary objective, then you are at WEB 1.5, not WEB 2.0. It’s as simple as that. If you still want a one way mirror where you control the information in the comments, other than pure flaming deletions and spam deletions, and not transparent glass where more value comes from the anonymous commenter than the post writer, then you don’t “get” WEB 2.0.

Of course that’s my definition and how I understand it. Perhaps a Buyer’s Perspective is likely the best example of WEB 2.0 as far as the real estate industry is concerned, available on the internet today. ALL of the lesson learned is learned by the agents, and not the potential buyer of real estate. The potential buyer of real estate is the one doing the teaching, not the agent.

RCG is one of the best examples of WEB 2.0. Not because I am more transparent than many agents. Not because Rhonda conveys tons of good lending info to consumers. Not because Jillayne presents the underbelly of what is happening out there in her inimitable style of presenting that information. RCG is the best example of WEB 2.0 because of what readers learn from Tony Chase in the COMMENTS section of the Popcorn Ceiling Removal post. It is the best example of WEB 2.0 because of what we all learn from czb, and Biliruben, and Sniglet, and Polly and Adrianna and Jack and yes even Synthetik 🙂 to name just a few. They are WEB 2.0, not us. We cannot create WEB 2.0. We can only create an environment for WEB 2.0 to thrive in, so those commenting can create WEB 2.0 by the value added via their comments.

They, both the named and the anonymous commenters, are WEB 2.0. Not us.

Until agents and lenders and industry practitioners and vendors of services to agents, understand that “mutually maximizing collective intelligence and added value for each participant by formalized and dynamic information sharing and creation.” is NOT about what THEY SAY in the post itself, but what they learn from those commenting on what they say, in particular from those who add more to the info in the post and often those who disagree with the information in the post, there will be blogwars.

Change never happens without disruption, Rome wasn’t built in a day and rarely do more than 20% ever “get it” at all. Most will stop even trying to “get it” at the point where they find a way to make money off of it. That’s how innovative principles become “buzz” words only, because the buck stops there.

REALTOR (R) Magazine Welcomes Web 2.0

REALTOR (R) Magazine’s March issue has as it’s cover story: “Welcome to Real Estate 2.0”.

0308 cvr toc 1 2 3 4 5 6 7The article gives an overview of Web 2.0 and how a few innovative people in the real estate world have been on the leading edge of applying the new technology in effective ways. A few of the many well regarded real estate bloggers are mentioned including ARDELL DellaLoggia and Dustin Luther, and Rain City Guide as being one of the sites for promoting Web 2.0. Congratulations Dustin and ARDELL!

More leaders in Web 2.0 are highlighted such as St Paul Blogger Teresa Boardman of StPaulRealEstateblog.com and Matt Heaton of the Real Estate Social Networking site ActiveRain in Bellevue. Some of the others also mentioned are Frances Flynn Thorsen (Realtygram Blogger) Jeff Turner (Turner’s Perspective ) and Daniel Rothamel (Real Estate Zebra blog)

A few large companies are joining in on the conversation, Coldwell Banker with Second Life, and is also joining with Scripps Networks (who owns HGTV) with their FrontDoor.com.

Definitely exciting times in real estate with so much going on, and the Web 2.0 conversation (party!) is only just beginning!

Skinny Bitch and Jenny Craig

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I promised my friends over at Jenny Craig in Bellevue that I would post some of my methods for moving toward my goal weight so quickly. I’m actually at my halfway point.

When I left Inman’s Real Estate Connect in San Francisco last year, I picked up the book Skinny Bitch to read on the airplaine on the way home. Nothing says “lose some weight” like speaking on stage to over 1,000 people in the audience. There’s no way to stop people from snapping photos and posting them on the internet or podcasting presentations and putting them out on Inman TV. So losing weight became a priority before Inman’s 2008 Real Estate Connect in San Francisco for me.

What’s this have to do with Seattle and Real Estate? Lots! Truth be told, the “dirty little secret of moving to Seattle”, especially from year round warmer climate areas, is you gain weight. Just before I moved to Seattle back in 2004, Tom Leykis did a piece on the radio about his visit to Seattle and the women having the biggest butts he’d ever seen. Crude, and my butt didn’t get big, but the weather does lend itself to weight gain if you are the type that likes outdoor exercise vs. going to a gym.

When cooking, I often read five recipes for the same dish, and then make it based on a combination of them all. Same with weight loss. I integrated a bit of the Skinny Bitch principals to the Jenny Craig plan. I had been to Jenny Craig years ago after I had my three children two year’s apart, with good and lasting success until my move to Seattle. So I had no doubt that I would accomplish what I set out to do. When you are in the business of helping others achieve their goals, achieving your own goals is paramount. No room for maybe won’t.

The first week I lost 3.6 lbs and then 2.8 lbs. pretty consistently for each of the 4 other weeks. Never even a fraction of a lb. UP in that time. While I’m not a vegan, like Skinny Bitch espouses, there is very little meat in the Jenny Craig food, so that principle is somewhat covered. What I don’t do that Jenny Craig says to do and Skinny Bitch suggests, is I never eat when I am not hungry. I don’t space out the meals and my Jenny Craig friends laugh when I tell them that I pile my lunch and breakfast on top of my dinner and eat it all at once at night LOL!

My days go by so fast in real estate, that I often don’t stop to eat, though I am drinking the 64 ounces of water prescribed under the plan during the day. No one wants to drink 64 ounces of water all at once, especially before going to bed.

Moral of the story, don’t fight your natural eating patterns and don’t eat when you are not hungry. For the first 3-4 weeks I did not change my exercise activity. Some exercise, but not more than my normal. I adjusted to the 1,200 calorie per day pattern first, and that was enough to lose the initial 10 lbs or so. When the weight loss looked like it might be slowing down from the food change alone, I kicked in the exercise. I play disco music and walk around the block several times, reversing the direction each time I get back to my house. There’s a nice hill going up 1st Street and a slightly less incline coming up 2nd Street, so I go one way and then the other.

I either play The Rolling Stones Disc 2 of the Forty Licks CD set, or a walking disco tape. I’ve been doing my step exercise with Mick Jagger for years, since my Richard Simmons Sweat and Step tape got eaten. I see it is back in print while writing this post. YAY! I’m ordering that right now! I try to add a song each day (thanks Jeremy Keener for that tip) instead of counting the trips around the block. I haven’t made it through Jack, Jack, Jackie yet, which reminds me of my daughter Jackie, but it keeps me close to home in case all the water I am drinking while walking (usually 32 ounces) has an affect 🙂

Drinking the water is often the hardest part, so I did buy two things from Jenny Craig. One is their scale because I swore that the reason my weight didn’t seem to change for three years no matter what I did was the scale’s fault. I ditched the “meany scale” and bought the Body Balance Scale at Jenny Craig that records digitally in ounces, and I get weighed every morning to make sure I’m not kidding myself into thinking I’m on track if I’m not. The other is the Jenny water bottle with built in straw and water filtration system. Drinking two of those vs. throw away water bottles is better for the environment and the purple cap reminds me not to eat or drink anything that doesn’t have the Jenny Craig seal of approval.

I did take Sarah Washburn’s brother Ovid out to lunch yesterday over at the Pumphouse. But had no problem eating my Chicken Caesar salad with no dressing and a sprinkling of plain vinegar, while he downed a big burger and fries. I took one fry and put it on my plate to show that I could, but the plate went back with the salad gone and the lone french fry proudly placed in the center of the plate. When I went to the ladies room I told Ovid that if he were my friend he would hide that fry while I was away. We then removed it from its hiding place and put it on the plate as the waitress came to clear the table.

The waitress smiled, and in that smile I could see that seeing someone being steadfast in their goals, gave her a feeling that she too could achieve her goals…whatever they may be. Sometimes we stick to our goals and objectives to show others that they too…can be successful at just about anything they want to achieve. We support one another the way the ground on your property supports the structure next door. We are an interdependent society, and the ripple effect of leading by example, is an awesome and rewarding responsibility.

Internet Marketing Seminar for Realtors in California

Dustin Luther of RCG and 4realz.net has put together a series of Internet Marketing seminars for Realtors in California.

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I have been to one of Dustin’s seminars and couldn’t take notes fast enough! Dustin plans to cover quality website features and design, engaging in existing social networks, building an online community with blogs, and tracking and conversion to maximize return-on-investment….all in one day.

ROI is where I receive the most questions. Dustin, agents as well as brokers are questioning how to track ROI from blogging, how to minimize agent liability, and privacy concerns regarding personal client information. Will you cover these things as well?

Seminar Dates:
Los Angeles, March 6
San Diego, March 19
Orange County, March 31

Now if I could only find an excuse to be in California next month.

The Northwest: blessed with water,mountains, settings and views. How do you value views?

How do you value views? I don’t know.

Growing up on Capitol Hill is a far cry from acreage, cows, chickens, Llamas and horses. To say my current environment is different from where I grew up is an understatement. The house I grew up in had what I thought was an excellent view looking East over the Arboretum, Madison Park, Lake Washington and the Cascades. I can recall many warm Summers climbing out of my parents bedroom window and inching up the roof on my rear to get a perfect view. Only on the roof ridge could I see Mt. Rainier and Mt. Baker, but they were there. Husky Stadium—the hollowed place my Kansas State University Football ulumnus father (played with the late Harold Robinson, the first African American player in the Big 8 at the time, circa 1952) hated with a passion I can’t describe—was also in view. I don’t know how a guy could hate the Huskies so much and get his Engineering/Architecture degree there, but I just didn’t ask questions. I crawled up on the roof really to see one thing only: The Blue Angels.

When my spouse and I started looking for a larger place for our clan, we couldn’t qualify for squat (code for beer budget with a Champagne taste). I wanted a view, she wanted acreage. Where in Ballard were we going to find that? Where in Edmonds would we find anything like that without a million dollars in my back pocket. Monopoly money didn’t count. Snohomish County is where we found the view and acreage.

Ardell has had some really nice view photos lately on this blog and ActiveRain Blog. Rhonda Porter has posted some great photos of views and water on her blog as well. It reminded me about a post I wanted to make about how to value view property. Since I’m not in the valuation business, I thought I’d ask those who are. How do you value view property?

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Board votes 6-3 to landmark Ballard Denny’s building


dennys1 1For those who have been watching Benaroya vs. Seattle Landmarks Preservation Board were probably not surprised by the outcome of today’s vote. The Landmarks board’s 6-3 vote to designate the exterior of Ballard Denny’s a city landmark did little to signify anything except give opposition another Trojan Horse to attack future development.

My problem with this vote is not to say opposition is not free to their opinion. Instead the Seattle Landmarks Preservation board’s vote was a perfect example of putting personal feelings in front of political freedoms.

The Fifth Amendment ends saying, “…nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.