Sunday Night Stats – Best and Worst

First, it’s been pretty obvious in the last 3 to 4 days that people are reacting to the interest rates being at 4.75% to 4.875% recently.  I can honestly say agents are not instigating this momentum, as all of the calls I have received have been directly from buyers that I’ve never spoken with before.  In fact I have had more calls to see property from buyers than I have had showings from agents.  It’s like a large part of the agent marketlace is MIA.  I’m hearing similar stories of “agents retreating” from Vancouver.  A sign that first quarter 2009 is clearly going to be on the upswing.  But let’s look at some more of the here and now tonight.

The Best:  Townhomes – the under $500,000 variety – net even a Buyer’s Market really – not a Seller’s market either.  A balanced market in Townhomes in Redmond where almost ALL townhomes sell for under $500,000 and North of Downtown in Seattle.  Location issues are more of a concern in Seattle than Redmond, as most townhomes in Redmond are built in larger, well located communites.  In Seattle they are often smack on a main arterial.  So be discriminating as to location and lifestyle and not just space issues.

Only a 5.7 month supply of townhomes in Redmond 98052 – not even a buyer’s market

Hard to believe with all the gloomy news, I know, but yes there is a market segment that is still performing well.  That will clearly improve in 2009 if rates stay this low, so we could even see a Seller’s Market come back in Redmond Townhomes in the not too distant future.  Still, I’ve seen prices taking a beating in the last 60-90 days.  Let’s see if lower rates and low supply pulls that back to stable.  I think that will happen for Townhomes in Redmond.

Now for the Opposite Extreme – The Dark Side – The Scariest Stat of all Sundays

Over FOUR YEARS of Inventory!  Where you ask?

Kirkland 98033 in the $1.2M plus market.  115 for sale and only 7 closed in the last 90 days.  See detail.

Compare Single Family Homes – Kirkland 98033 above to Redmond SFH 98052 below:

They look like Chirstmas Balls 🙂  The more red you see, the less green and blue, the weaker the housing market.  Redmond is doing pretty good until you get over $750,000.

Two story townhomes under $500,000 are definitely the IT segment both in Seattle and the Eastside.  Kirkland just doesn’t have enough of them like Redmond does.  Not sure what happens when you get out to Cougar Mountain and other not “close-in” newer townhomes.  I don’t get out that way very often, and last I looked there was a reason why I don’t go out there very often.  Every time it snows, I get calls from people who want to sell them and move closer to work.

Well, that’s your Sunday Night Stat “Christmas Balls” edition.  Hope you’re enjoying your “White Christmas”.

 

How to evaluate "the comps" and price per square foot

tri levelWith more and more home buyers and sellers participating in the home buying & selling process to a greater degree than ever before, we can’t write enough posts that provide the basic infomation and skills that help them evaluate home prices. The other day I talked about the popularity and pricing of homes in differering age segments.

Today I’m going to talk about “the comps” and median price per square foot of homes of differing styles. For this purpose I’m going to use Bellevue, Kirkland and Redmond vs. Seattle or all of King County. We will be looking at the differences in price per square foot for ramblers, split-entry homes and ramblers with basements, tri-levels and two story homes both with and without basements. I’m using all sales from 1/01/07 to date, to insure enough volume of sales in each category, to have a relevant median price per square foot. I eliminated lots in excess of 13,000 sf so the “extra” land doesn’t skew the data.

The photo above is a tri-level. When you’ve been in the business for many years, you can pretty much know the floor plan of a house without ever needing to go inside. When a house looks like one story from one side and two story from the other, viewing it from left to right while standing only in front of it, that is a tri-level. You will enter on the main level which has the living room, dining room and kitchen. After you are inside the main floor (and not when you immediately enter the front door) you will go up 4 or 5 steps to the bedrooms or down 4 or five steps to the family room that exits to the yard, usually via sliding glass doors. The garage entrance is on the other side of the family room and no portion of the tri-level is underground. That is your basic tri-level and you can tell that without having to go inside.

bi levelThe home pictured to the left is a split-entry home. For those reading this from outside of the Seattle Area, you may call a “split-entry” a 2-level, a bi-level, a raised rambler or a raised rancher. All are referencing the same style of home called different things in different areas. Basically it is a rambler with a basement, most often but not always a daylight basement. The underground side of the basement is raised high enough for there to be windows.

The front steps take you up to the front door that looks like it is centered in the middle of the structure. Once you walk in the front door you have to go immediately up or down from the foyer to access any of the rooms. It is a rambler with a basement that is not fully underground at any point. A rambler with a daylight basement is basically the same home, but the street side of the basement is fully underground, so you enter at street level onto the main floor.

Now let’s do some stats on the differing home styles. PPSF = Price Per Square Foot.

Rambler/One Story Home – median price $491,500 – median sf 1,470 – median PPSF $334 DOM 26

Rambler w. basement – median price $699,000 – median sf 2,760 – median PPSF – $253 DOM 30

Some people think that the smaller square footage is creating the higher price per square foot. What is really happening is that the main level is valuing at $334 per square foot (same as the rambler) and the basement level is valuing at $172.50 per square foot. For instance the 2,760 sf divided by two, equals 1,380 on the main level times $334 equals $460,920 for the main floor “rambler portion”. The difference, $699,000 minus $460,920 = $238,080 for the basement divided by 1,380 sf equals $172.50 PPSF for the basement. That averages $253 PPSF for the whole house as to finished square foot and does not include the garage or unfinished/not heated basement area. It’s a bit simplified, but hopefully you get the gist of that. Same is true for the split entry.

Split-entry home – median price $510,000 – median sf 2,150 – median PPSF $237 DOM 30

Again, the main level of 1,075 sf of the split-entry is valuing the same as the rambler at $334 or $359,050. $510,000 minus $359,950 = $150,050 divided by 1,075 basement sf = $139.58 for the basement sf and that averages to $237 PPSF for the whole house. In reality above ground square footage values higher than underground square footage, so if the basement is all underground on either the rambler or split entry, the basement square footage would value for less than a “daylight” basement and the fully above ground portion would value for more than the partially above ground portion. So don’t pay the same for a fully underground basement as you would a daylight basement.

Two Story Home – median price $750,000 – median sf 2,760 – median PPSF $271 – DOM 39

Two Story Home w/basement – median price $1,097,000 – median sf 3,920, median PPSF $280 – DOM 59

The two story home with a basement does not get “diluted” in value by the basement because it is basically the top choice of available homes, there are fewer of them and almost half of them have a lake view. The builders will put the most house, 2 story plus a basement, on the priciest lots with views. So there are a lot of factors that create what looks like full value for the basement on these 2 story homes, when in reality it is an external “plus feature” doing that. Only 4.7% of splits and 1 story ramblers have a lake view, 11.4% of 2 story homes without a basement have a lake view and 42.8% of 2 story homes with a basement have a lake view. 31.8% of the big ramblers with basements have a lake view, so adjust for that as well.

The longer days on market has more to do with higher total price of home, than home style.

The tri-level pictured at the top is only valued at $268 per square foot, even though all of the living square footage is above ground. There are fewer of them, but that does not make them more desirable and a higher PPSF, because when you chop up 2,000 sf into three levels, no level seems large enough. When you put the family room on the main floor next to the kitchen it values higher on the main level, than when you put it down on the basement level. If you can see into the family room on the lower level from the kitchen, it values higher than if you can’t.

It’s really common sense when you think about it that way. With more and more people using price per square foot as an indicator of value, I hope this post gives you a little more info to help you to refine your DIY valuation process.

Have a great day!

And now for something completely different…Seattle Neighborhood Round-up

Headlines come and go…life goes on in our Seattle Neighborhoods….

A refreshing Alki twist on an old time summer favorite. On Beach Drive Blog some resident wildlife captured in aerialist feats of fishing. Discovered at West Seattle Blog rare sightings of pink birds are anticipated to be seen in West Seattle yards soon.

Happy 500th Ballard Avenue blog! At Large in Ballard tips us on the BBQ at the BCC.

Up on Capitol Hill at CHS the moon shone a little less brightly last Tuesday and has photos to prove it.

Issaquah Undressed spots a horse of a different color and composition…scrap iron. The City of Redmond Neighborhood BLOG reports on some stormwater solutions happening in Redmond.

Over at Kirkland Weblog a dancing hot dog delights drivers…and captures children’s’ attention at the corner of 124th and 116th. Week 35 at Kirkland 52 drops the hint of fall.

Tear Downs

One of the commenters, Redmondjp, asked about tear downs. Kirkland is famous for new homes being put where old ones used to be. But our conversation stemmed around whether or not Bellevue and Redmond ramblers built in the 50s and 60s will go the way of these Kirkland teardowns. I know of a few in Bellevue. I don’t know any in Redmond.

Here are a few recent tear downs, before and after, from Kirkand. What do you think?

Should the old ones have stayed?

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Buying wisely in any market

[photopress:seg.gif,thumb,alignright]I find that most people who track countywide stats, looking for bubbles and market trends, are not people who are buying and selling property. Anyone who is actually buying or selling property knows, that countywide stats tell you both everything and nothing. It is in the small subsections of any given market that you will find the information you need to make wiser choices.

For instance, can you really compare ramblers built in the 60s to newer housing choices? Can you compare “too small for anyone” condos of 400 square feet, to the saleability of 2 bedroom 2 bath condos? Lumping everything together tells you nothing. Houses on busy roads, for example, will not sell as well, and will sell worse at times like this when buyers are being more cautious. I think of houses on busy roads when I hear comments like, “The market is getting weak! I see more and more for sale signs every day while driving to work!” Well let’s assume that most people do not drive on quiet 25 mi. per hour residential streets when driving to work. So what they are seeing is the weakness of properties situated on busy roads, not the market in general.

A good example is tracking newer townhomes, in the $300,000 to $500,000 range, within 3 miles of Microsoft. This is a market segment that is driven by its own forces and outperforms the market in general. In the last six months there were only 21 townhomes sold, built since 1990 and within 3 miles of Microsoft, between $300,000 and $500,000. Of these 21, 16 sold AT or better than full price in less than 30 days. Several in less than 10 days and most in less than 20 days. At the moment there are only 3 available, all on market less than 15 days and two at less than 5 days on market and there are 3 in escrow.

So of the total six month inventory, you can expect four to sell per month and there are only 3 on market, two of which have only been on for two days and three days, respectively. Those are some pretty strong market stats. What are the odds that these will start dwindling on market for excessive periods of time or go down in price? Slim to none. Making offers on this product, based on what you are reading about the King County market in general, would make no sense whatsoever.

So Chicken Little, maybe the sky IS falling for older ramblers built on busy roads with only one bathroom. But conversely the sky is still the limit in newer townhomes for sale within close proximity to Microsoft. There’s a whole lot of varied stats in between. Make sure you are making your choices based on the product and market segment that YOU are considering buying. Buying the biggest “bargain” on market, could lead you into buying in that segment of the market that will not appreciate, and will be difficult to sell later for at or more than what you paid.

The last seven days in Real Estate

Last week of August. Who bought what, where and for how much? Typically a slow week with agents and clients taking some time away with their families before school starts.

[photopress:v.jpg,full,alignright]This is my absolute favorite property that sold this week, in Sammamish for almost $4,000,000. Going home there is like going on vacation every day after work. My definition of “sold” in the last seven days, for this article, is STI or PENDING…people “making decisions” to purchase.

Seattle under $300,000 – 38 people, between $300,000 and $400,000 – 66 people

70 people in each for the $400,000 to $500,000 range AND the $500,000 – $600,000

Then we really drop off to only 20 from $600,000 to $700,000, and then half of that at 10 from $700,000 to $800,000, half that again to 5 at $800,000 to $900,000, and 3 in the $900,000 to a million.

15 from $1 million to $2 million and two just over $2 million, one in Broadmoor and the other a tudor in Denny Blaine.

On the Eastside I used, Bellevue, Bothell (King County), Kenmore, Kirkland and Redmond.

Only 5 under $300,000 this week. 75 between $400,000 to $600,000. 4 between $2 million and $3 million vs. only 2 in Seattle, and about 10 in most other categories.

So all tolled on both sides of the Lake, most homes this week were sold between $300,000 and $600,000. That includes condos, townhomes and single family homes.

Fits into the theory that the average buyer is at $450,000 give or take.

Improving Online Home Valuations?

This past week, Top Producer quietly rolled out a home valuation tool, called HomeInsight, for a few markets in California and Washington*. I was not part of developing the tool, but I like it enough to pass along the link to Rain City Guide readers before the local media picks it up.

What differentiates this product from others is that it not only includes sold data, but also real-time listing data. The result is a page of information for each home that includes:

  • an interactive map that gives details on ten similar nearby homes (5 that are for sale and 5 that have sold) and
  • dynamic charts that give the average/high/low listing price, the average/high/low selling time and the average difference between asking and selling price for the neighborhood of interest.

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However, as with all things that sound too good to be true, there is a catch. In order to pull live listing information, the servers pulling this data have to go through an agent’s connection with their local MLS. (Don’t ask me to explain why, and definitely don’t ask Robbie, but anyone reading RCG for a while knows that the MLS’ have rules!) The result is it takes 5 to 15 minutes for the request to go to the local Realtor’s Top Producer account and then for the Realtor to initiate a report that pulls the data off the MLS servers (yes, a server call to the local MLS is necessary each and every time a request for a snapshot is made). Consequently, the only way to get your snapshop is from a link sent via email about 10 minutes after you complete the form.

So, how do you get a market snapshot for your home? Simply go to HomeInsight and fill in the required fields. (Remember it is only available in a few places right now!*)

If you don’t want to fill in the form, live in another part of the country, or feel guilty about sending people like Jim Reppond a “false” lead, then you can also check out this dummy snapshot filled with made up data.

And as much as I hate disclaimers, it is important to note that these are my opinions and my currently employer is not responsible for what I write on Rain City Guide.

* This tool is currently only available in parts of California (Hemet, Huntington Beach, Laguna Niguel, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Mission Viejo and Norwalk) and Washington (Bellevue/Eastside, Bremerton, Everett, Federal Way, Greater Seattle, Puyallup and Tacoma)

Seattle Street of Dreams – 2006

Robbie, Stephanie, Harrison and I went to the Street of Dreams together yesterday. What I enjoyed most, was their company. What Harrison (age 3 1/2) enjoyed most, was the school bus ride from and to the car. His first ride on a school bus.

The house I liked best, though not everything about it, was of course the highest priced one at $5,500,000, but I’d want it moved somewhere else with a view. Because I am a “view person”, not everyone is, I came home and liked my own house better than any of them.

Trends, products, styles, features…a run down. I guess I’m “jaded” by having seen lots and lots and lots of houses all over the country, because I didn’t see anything I liked, at least not that I liked in that setting. House number 6, which is purportedly “sold” was the best of the batch, all things considered. Best lot, house that seemed appropriate to the lot and setting, house that seemed appropriate for the area. But I’d like to “live in it” for a week or two like a timeshare. I’d want to move it to the bottom of a ski resort and timeshare it out for two weeks at a time unless I could afford it as one of many homes as a “getaway” house. But then I’m a City Girl who can’t be rustically oriented for more than two weeks at a time. I get hives.

Lots of too much dark, caves, caverns, pitch black theater rooms, stone inside the house, even a clay tile roof inside the house. Lots of too much “old” as in new made to look “old”. Coming from Philadelphia, I know what old looks like, and that’s not it. Two of the homes had a very dark “wood” floor that was supposed to look like the floors of an historic home. Not. Wide plank…yes, dark, yes, waves in each and every plank…not. Someone said it looked like it was made out of plastic.

Every house had a “butler pantry”, I think, and I was evaluating them all. One was totally off as if the designer didn’t know what a butler pantry really was all about. A butler pantry, copied from historic homes which were likely homes patterned from England, is that small galley between the dining room and kitchen with counters and cabinets on either side. It originally did not have a sink, as any water used by the butler would have been the “soda water” type in a bottle to freshen and make new drinks for the guests. For a “butler pantry” to be “true”, the butler should be able to stand in it and see the whole dining room table from it. He watches and quietly comes out as needed to fill a wine glass, freshen a drink or refill the string bean bowl as it gets low. The vantage point should be such that the guests do not really see him most of the time. So the one butler pantry that had only one side and standing there gave the butler a view of the backyard? I don’t think so.

Stephanie noticed this and it was a riot. In one house there is a fish tank inside the shower. Cool, but…the other side of the fish tank built into the wall was not in the master bedroom, it was in the hallway! I went into the shower and did a little dance as Stephanie stayed in the hallway to see if she could see me moving about. All of the people in the house were laughing and talking about how the kids in the “West Wing” could sneak down the hall and watch Mommy and Daddy in the two headed shower through the fish tank.

Moral of the story is NEVER go to The Steet of Dreams with a Real Estate Agent. They look at what’s wrong…not what’s right, at least this one does. Mostly the homes were not “true to themselves” mixing modern smack against historic replica features. That new sink that looks like a laundry tub (modern) next to an island with an Early American spindle table leg built into the corner. The pantry with relatively cheapo looking shelves, with a crystal chandelier hanging in the middle of the pantry. Better to hire a carpenter to build the shelves in, if you are planning to hang a crystal chandelier up between the Frosted Flakes and the Pop Tarts.

So Robbie and family got a taste of what looking at homes with Ardell is like. They look at what’s right, I look for what’s wrong. Robbie kept wanting me to give an opinion of value and projected days on market…but that’s something I do after I get home from showing property, as it is a “data” driven function, not a WAG 🙂

Big homes & big dreams in Sammamish

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The Seattle Street of Dreams is back and promises to continue it’s tradition as “the most popular single site luxury home tour in the country”. Essentially, it’s a month long open house of multiple multi-million dollar homes. This year it is being held from July 15 through August 20 and features 6 homes that are in the $5 million range in Sammamish (east of Redmond, north of Issaquah). If you’re a CEO or a professional athlete, it might be your next home. You can drive over to Eastlake High School in Sammamish, WA and a shuttle bus will take you to the show. Although, the price of admission is a little steep (see below), it’s probably the next best thing to being invited to Bill Gates or Aaron Spelling’s house.

Adults (16 & Over) $17.50
Senior Citizens (65+) $14.50
Military (With ID) $14.50
Children (3-15) $14.50
Children 2 & Under FREE
Event Parking FREE

Anyway, seeing multi-million dollar homes up close and personal is a fun way to kill a couple of hours (and is probably useful research excercise if you’re in the industry). You should attend, if for no other reason, than to see what the future of real estate might be. As in technology, the expensive luxury of today can trickle down to become the must have feature of tomorrow. After all, those granite countertops had to start from someplace? As for what comes after granite, my bet is on HDTV friendly surroundings (a 50″ plasma won’t fit onto a 32″ shelf) and fiber optics. But I’ll to attend the show to see what the leading edge builders, designers & manufacturers think.