Tag Archives: Seattle

2007 Still looking like a Seller's Market

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I ran my stats this morning to track where the market is heading for 2007, based on properties For Sale, In Escrow and Closed so far since the first of the year. I use the stats for Bellevue, Redmond and Kirkland as the basis for my market research, as this area has a huge component of housing in almost every market segment,and represents are high expectations for market conditions. When this area turns weak, we need to take notice.

So far, it appears that my prediction that 2007 will meet or exceed that of 2006, appears to be on target.

The full data is on my site, with more graphs, but here are the quotes of particular relevance.

“…75% of the market will still be a SELLER”S MARKET in 2007, based on how the year is opening up so far. We do not begin to see inventory tipping over into a balanced or buyer’s market until we get over $800,000 in price, which only represents about 25% of the housing market, in the area I have chosen to examine.”

“The dominant portion of this market is between $200,000 and $600,000…which is by and large “the safer zone” representing 63.6% of all home buyers and sellers in the Bellevue, Kirkland and Redmond markets and the area most likely to rise at 15% to 25% or greater in value by the end of this year.”

 

“Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS.” NWMLS is the data source I used to compile the data and I created and published the graph.  MLS rule to post this.

Seattle Area Appreciation

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Brian Brady asked: “Off topic but I wanted to ask you a question, Ardell. Has Seattle been a rising market from Feb, 2005 through today?”

It would have been a lot easier to answer if you hadn’t said February 2005 🙂 I could have just said yes. But I remember the day. It was June 15, 2005. I could feel it. I could taste it. I could smell it. The ground was swelling. You could put your ear on the ground and hear it coming! LOL I happened to be in a complex called Sixty-01, which has its own idiosyncrases that I won’t go into since you are out of State, Brian. But here’s some stats to prove my blood boiling was on target. Hindsight is easy. Feeling it coming is an artform. I’m using Sixty-01 because I was there that day and also because it has a lot of “same product”/apples to apples for straight appreciation comparisons. They are all practically identical 2 bedroom – 1.5 bath townhomes in the stats below.
07/09/03 – $100,000

11/24/03 – $ 95,000

08/12/04 – $128,950

08/24/04 – $129,500

02/18/05 – $128,950

05/03/05 – $123,000

06/20/05 – $131,450

07/07/05 – $127,000

All of those were in contract before June 15. On June 15th one came on market with an asking price of $137,950. I practically begged a poor woman to get an offer in within an hour of it hitting the market, to grab it at full price. I could feel it in my bones! The prices were going to move right now! She could get it at full price today! But she couldn’t get her brain around it. She wanted to make an offer based on the average of the comps at $127,000. I was beside myself. I knew getting that townhome at $137,950 on that first day was going to be the best move she ever made. But I couldn’t convince her. Five days later it bid out and sold at $148,000. And here’s what happened after that.

07/19/05 – $148,000

07/22/05 – $167,950

07/29/05 – $166,000

11/29/05 – $178,950

03/30/06 – $177,000

06/07/06 – $205,450 (list at $199,900)

07/11/06 – $205,000

08/25/06 – $227,500

09/13/06 – $235,000

11/01/06 – $245,000

01/17/07 – $252,500

New on Market $269,900

So Brian, rephrase the question and ask me if it has been going up since 6/15/05, and I can answer yes. February 05 through June 05, not as much. I’ll have to do a new townhome comparison in Ballard to confirm Eastside vs. Seattle proper. Hard to find “like kind” in Seattle as there are very few “like kind” comparisons except splits and townhomes. Many of the homes were built in the early 1900s through 1930, and are all unique structures with massive modifications since 1905. But I’m pretty sure the stats will be about the same. Kirkland Condos…same story but harder to find “like kind” these days as newer equals higher ceilings, so “like kind” harder to track.

Hope that answers your question.

Web2.0 is About You

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Wonderful video from a Kansas professor…

(via ProBlogger)

I’ve been told I move a bit fast in my seminars (more than once!), but I found this guy to move at light-speed! Interestingly, if the video makes complete sense to you, then you will have no need for my presentation. However, if you’d be interested in learning a bit more about how consumers matter in this web2.0 world (i.e. “you matter”), and how you, as an agent, can flip this logic to use these web2.0 tools so that you matter (i.e. “brand you”), then I’d love to see you at my Seattle seminar on February 20th! (Or in Oakland, CA the next day!)

So far, the feedback from the seminars has been overwhelmingly positive. I was a little hesitant to make a big deal out of the seminar before I ran a few trials because my presentation is more-than-slightly unconventional and I started to doubt myself. It wasn’t until I heard from some of the attendees that it was one of the best real estate presentation they had ever been to that I started to feel more comfortable that I might be on to something big. 🙂 Also, both Jeff, Rudy and Brian give some encouraging feedback that will definitely keep me presenting at a few more seminars!

By the way, my presentation style was highly influenced by a short presentation given by Chris Smoak where he was able to move at the speed of light because the presentation moved with him. (Chris is the guy behind one of my favorite mash-ups ever, Bus Monster.) After witnessing Chris in action, I just knew I’d have to create a similar presentation some day.

Finally, Greg has been posting the audio from my presentation over on the Bloodhound blog (Part 1, Part 2). Personally, I think the seminar is simply too long for an audio presentation (it NEEDS the visuals!), but some may find it interesting, nonetheless.

Calling All Patches Pals

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Tomorrow is a VERY BIG DAY for all Patches Pals.   If you grew up in the Seattle area, you must know JP Patches, the one and only Mayor of the City Dump.   Beginning at 10:00 a.m. at the Red Door Ale House in Fremont, JP and friends (including Gertrude) will be present for the unveiling of the scale model of the statue that will be built to honor this local treasure.   Last year, JP was featured in an article in the Seattle Times about why this clown deserves such recognition.

Yes.  I’m a bona fide Patches Pal.  We actually had JP hired to perform our marriage ceremony at our home last April 1, 2006.   But when our small wedding began to to turn into a circus, pun intended, we decided to elope…so no JP nuptials.

A few fellow Patches Pals at the Northwest Academy of Television Arts and Science have been raising money to build this statue.  At tomorrows event, you will have the opportunity to purchase “Patches Pavers” that will surround the statue by dropping your donation into the ICU2TV.   Any moneys raised beyond the building of the statue will be donated to Childrens Hospital.  

I wouldn’t miss this for the world…I hope to see you there!

Taco trucks on the radio today

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I was on KUOW 94.9 this morning as a guest on a show about taco trucks. Unfortunately I was on my cell phone without a landline in sight, so my voice was a little muffled. LosTacoTrucks.com was my first Google maps-based website (can you tell?) and it has been entirely neglected of late for ShackPrices.com. In the early days, we considered a spanglish (or a franglais) name for ShackPrices, but elhouses.com just doesn’t have the right ring or the right feel to it (is it a site for houses in Spanish speaking countries?).

One of my favorite things about Seattle is the boom in immigrant run restaurants that are for other immigrants. Taco trucks are a prime example of this – you couldn’t get anything but americanized Mexican food when I was growing up, but now you can get really good, authentic Mexican food at taco trucks around the city and around the suburbs. And when you go to the trucks, you will be surrounded by Mexican people getting a flavor of home.

There are a lot of other great ethnic restaurants in the Rainier Valley and in White Center. My girlfriend and I went to a great Eritrean restaurant / bar just south of the I-90 – Rainier Avenue interchange the other night – it’s similar to Ethiopian food, but I wouldn’t say that too loudly at the restaurant. If you’ve never been to White Center, I highly recommend visiting the Salvadorian Bakery for dinner. If you’ve already been, you should visit one of the two taco trucks nearby – they’re great.

Here’s the taco truck list if you can’t find one near you on my site: http://kuow.org/resource/weekday/taco_truck_070208.txt. The other guests on the show went for the exotic soups and full meals offered at taco trucks, but I recommend the simple, straight forward items like tacos and tortas.

To Landlords and sellers in City of Seattle – new rules w/ fines… Get up to speed!

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Important Fair Housing Notice for Seattle

The City of Seattle has recently adopted a new ordinance that requires all real estate professionals (including brokers and property managers) within the city limits to prominently display a fair housing poster in their place of business. The poster is available at http://www.seattle.gov/civilrights/outreach.htm under the link for “Housing Issues.

2006 Statistical Review and Highlights

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Straight out of the horses mouth. I noticed these stats posted by the NWMLS today. I found a smilar post on their public site, nwrealestate.com. You can see the detailed story here

During 2006, members of NWMLS. . .

  • Reported more than 96,000 closed sales with a combined value of more than $35 billion
  • Experienced a 6.7% drop in number of units sold compared to 2005, but an increase of about 5% in the dollar volume of the closed transaction
  • Reported 1,951 sales of single family homes priced at $1 million or more (up from 1521 during 2005) and 859 sales of condominiums priced at $500,000 or more (up from 623 during 2005).
  • The MLS area covering Bellevue/West of 405 had the highest number of million dollar-plus sales with 219, followed by Central Seattle/Madison Park with 165. For high-end condos ($500,000-plus), west Bellevue had the largest number (183), followed by Belltown/downtown Seattle (130) and Kirkland (117); 145 condos sold for more than $1 million
  • Among the 19 counties in the MLS service area, San Juan claimed the highest median price ($539,500) for single family homes that sold last year; King County followed at $425,000
  • Maintained a high ratio of cross-sales: more than three of every four transactions were listed by one office and sold by a different office
  • Added 139,814 new listings of SFH and condos to inventory, with the highest volume (14,541 added during June
  • Represented more than 30,000 home sellers, on average, each month
  • Reported double-digit price gains for SFH compared to 2005 in all but one county
  • In the four-county Puget Sound region (King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap), only about 6% of single family homes sold for under $200,000
  • Sold more than 15,000 condominiums, about the same as during 2005; approximately 63% of all condos that sold system-wide were in King County.
  • Found wide variation in prices of 3-bedroom homes. For pre-owned homes (built 2004 or earlier), the median sales price ranged from $124,900 in Grant Co. to $508,000 in San Juan Co.
  • In King County, the average price of a single family home that sold in 2006 was about 2.9 times higher than the price in 1990 (up from $178,187 to $518,108).

NWMLS at a Glance

December 2006
Member Brokerages
2,075
Sales Associates
26,183
Counties included in Summary Report
17

Phinney Neighborhood annual home fair, Sunday, Jan 28th

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Phinney Neighborhood Center is hosting their annual home fair this weekend. This is a wonderful event with a lot of great information about home upkeep, upgrading, and overall design concepts. Several builders and architects attend this event and provide their expertise in a comfortable environment. One of my clients, Kirk Jolley, of Kirk Redo is usually in attendance as an exhibitor. He’s got great woodworking and finishing skills as I’ve seen his personal residence that he rebuilt after a former owner’s long neglect and I’ve seen many of his client projects, including the floor of my own home office – and he’s a great guy too! I’ve also volunteered in the past to help at the event as a member of the Phinney Neighborhood Association but sadly can’t make it to this year’s event. However, I do believe it is a great opportunity for people that are considering making changes to their home in the coming year to start getting educated about the process and to get some wonderful design ideas.

HOME DESIGN AND REMODEL FAIR : Imagine, Explore, Build
Sunday, Jan. 28, 2007, 10 a.m. – 4 p.m.
Phinney Neighborhood Center, 6532 Phinney Ave N.
Admission: $5 for PNA members, $8 for the general public, children under 12 Free

The 10th annual Home Design and Remodel Fair will offer local homeowners a chance to meet with trained professionals and get advice on remodeling and home improvement projects.

More than 75 exhibitors ranging from general and specialty contractors to landscape professionals to architects and designers will be on hand to offer advice and resources needed to complete any home improvement project. Many of the exhibitors have a “green” emphasis.

Presentations will also be featured throughout the day. Topics include everything from choosing a contractor to stocking your toolbox.

The presentation schedule includes:

10:30 Choosing & Hiring a Contractor
11:10 Remodeling for Resale Value
11:50 Financing Your Remodeling Project
12:30 Working with an Architect

12:45-1:15 in the Blue Room
Q&A with Around the Home & More KOL Radio hosts Kevin Liger & John Kappler

1:20 DIY Mini Home Inspection
2:00 Making the Most of What You’ve Got
2:40 Tools for the Homeowner
3:20 Design/Build: What is it?

Talking Up Shackprices

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[photopress:galen_ward.jpg,full,alignright]Nathan of nPost just did a great interview with Galen on Shackprices… Lots of gold including some indication of Galen’s vision for the future for Shackprices!

What is your long-term plan for ShackPrices?

I would really like ShackPrices to be a national real-estate search website. Our goal is to make it for anyone in America to search for a home. The plan is national coverage, more features, and a better site for people to search for a home with.

Don’t stop with this quote… Go read the whole thing! 🙂