Tag Archives: housing

We Deliver Anywhere

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PreFab housing is a foreign concept to me, so I decided to investigate…

  1. “There is no single definition of prefab. In fact, one could argue that almost every house built today has elements of prefabrication, since components such as roof trusses and windows are built off-site. Prefab can perhaps be best understood as a continuum with several points along a path—from a unique, custom-designed, stick-built home at one extreme to a complete factory-built house delivered on-site as a single unit.”
  2. [photopress:FF_82_prefab3_f.jpg,thumb,alignright]Are prefab homes destined for middle America? “Other architects are embracing this vision of mass customization. Charlie Lazor, a founder of the iconic Blu Dot furniture company, recently left to start his own concern selling FlatPak houses. Los Angeles-based architecture firm Marmol Radziner + Associates just opened a 64,000-square-foot factory to fabricate the steel frames for its new prefab line. And renowned LA architect Ray Kappe has designed a model for a prefab venture started by former dotcom mogul Steve Glenn.”
  3. The people from Royal Homes Modern remind us that size isn’t everything (so does the WSJ)
  4. However, small does not mean cheap… At least when Ray Kappe is involved.
  5. Prefab park?
  6. Wouldn’t it be nice if Seattle Modern got “modern” (i.e. a blog!) so that I could add him to my feed reader and link to his articles?
  7. Modern MyWay: Modern-style designs submitted by Dwell readers.
  8. Allison (the recently announced former editor at Dwell) literally wrote the book on PreFab.
  9. (Considering Alison helped market modular homes in addition to being an editor, Dwell has some work to do to fill her shoes…)
  10. Container Bay: “for shipping container enthusiasts”.

Required Reading…

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Another list of 10:

  1. Worth reiterating: Polly’s comments should be required reading for all agents (including the comments within the post about her comments! 🙂 ).
  2. Claudia Wicks lets us know about this “genealogy” site geared toward homes instead of people… The site includes maps, photos, etc.
  3. Also, are press releases still valuable? A quick search on Claudia shows that a recent press release she put out about being one of the Top Woman Real Estate bloggers dominates the coverage of her name on a google search. Fascinating.
  4. Artemi just emailed me to let me know that he just released a major upgrade to his real estate search site for England. The features that stick out for me are the simplicity, the tags for each property, and the natural language search (like the fact that the site also pre-fills in the search box with relevant tags). Great stuff…
  5. Interesting to read Jim’s perspective on the new website he is building with Ubertor. From what I’ve seen, the website definitely suffices as far as websites go, but if I was searching for an agent, I’d say his blog does a much better job selling himself.
  6. Searchlight had a follow up to their renting is for suckers article that describes some reasons a person should not buy a house. I can’t tell if they read my comment, but they clearly addressed some of the issues I brought up.
  7. Joel gives some insight into the art of being good enough…
  8. And then follows it up with news that Prudential is jumping on the Zillow API bandwagon.
  9. My take? Here are the ingredients for housingmaps style publicity: map. geocode. data1. data2.
  10. Jim’s worth noting column reminded me that I really wanted to mention DataPlace at some point. I saw a presentation of this tool at Where2.0 and was very impressed with the massive amount of neighborhood, demographic, socio-economic, etc. data that the Fannie May Foundation has manage to squeeze into their interface (and it is all free!). To give an overview, check out the massive amount of mortgage information available for the Seattle-Bellevue area or better yet, check out the map that I was able to easy build on post on my site of home ownership rates in the area:

Embracing Seattle’s New Urbanism

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As a longtime resident, I’m used to watching the Puget Sound area go through continual growth spurts as development and demographics change. I get lost in my hometown of Port Orchard spurting for the last 45 years as steady as the whales in Sinclair Inlet.

In spite of economic ups and downs, the NW is never stagnant and the next 10 years will hardly be an exception. And now there is another new trend as the babyboomers are seeking new lifestyles, all the while the NW economy is projected to add 50,000 new jobs by the year 2024. This new lifestyle and economy is fueling a new change as Seattle, the Queen of the NW cities embraces it’s new urbanism.

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Seattle will continue to change it’s skyline as a projected 10,000 new condominium units will be built over the next 5 years, ranging in price from the $200,000’s to more than 5 million. Here is the skyline as it will be affected by projects currently in the pipeline.

[photopress:Skyline_1.jpg,thumb,alignright]Always living in the eye of this growth hurricane, I try to stay open to predictions especially when these 10,000 units are already on the drawing boards. (Remember when East Lake Sammamish was only summer cottages, and the only thing you did in Issaquah was stop for a burger before hitting the slopes?)

But still I pause skeptically when I see plans for the immediate future in development like those planned for downtown Seattle. With only 55,000 people currently living in downtown Seattle, will changing demographics fill all of these new units? And where will the people come from?

Dean Jones, President and CEO of Real Logics speaking at a panel discussion regarding Seattle’s New Urbanism in June, believes there is a pent up demand for these new units and that about 2200 units per year can be absorbed, likely more than can be built possibly causing more demand than supply.

This pent up demand, Jones believes, is coming from 4 main sources: up to 1/2 from empty nesters; in city professionals; in city homeowners; and a minor segment of investors. According to architect Blaine Weber, a major driver of this demand for in city living is that people are seeking a new lifestyle. Living in the city can be a more carefree, healthy lifestyle as people step out of their building and walk a few blocks to work. ‘With addition of new pedestrian walkways and multi-modal transit opportunities, Seattle can become a 24-7 hub.’ Personally, I think that rising gas prices also make people rethink their life style alternatives and move closer to work centers and mass transit.

It’s interesting to wonder, then, what will happen to the housing being left behind by the empty nesters. In fact, some suggest that a sufficient inventory of single family detached housing already exists to supply demand for the next 20 years. Christopher Lineberger of the Brookings institute believes that all net new inventory will be attached single family homes in intensely urban settings again reflecting the desire of up to 50% of the public to live in a carefree environment with ‘walkable urbanity.

New urbanism is showing up outside of Seattle, too as planned developments are changing the waterfronts of Bremerton, Tacoma and communities like Dupont, Issaqauh Highlands, Snoqualmie Ridge and Redmond Ridge have been winners with buyers in the last 5-10 years. On the Tacoma waterfront there is a new 800 unit planned community that will be car-less with mixed use waterfront, according to the ‘Queen of Condos’ in Tacoma, Gema Powers. This appeals to my love for walking to Starbucks and the grocery store.

I’ve always thought I’d try out downtown living, especially since it’s where LTD Properties and Real Estate is located. I worry though about the lack of lawn and trees that’s you’d forgo in a high rise, and where would my husband restore his old Mustang that takes up half our garage? On the other hand, no more pulling weeks and repainting the house. I guess there’s pros and cons to all life styles, but at least we have enough alternatives that we can choose our own. It all sounds so appealing that maybe I’ll try out everything for 2 years at a time, but of course, when there are two and one doesn’t like change, I’ll have to live vicariously from friends as they embrace this new urbanism!

What is a .25 bathroom?

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[photopress:9t.jpg,thumb,alignright]Nine times out of ten when someone asks me this question, the house does not actually have a .25 bath. The mls here in the Seattle area requires us to count bathrooms in a specific, and somewhat outdated manner, causing many homes to appear to have a .25 bath that do not. 

[photopress:5t.jpg,thumb,alignright]I will shortly be listing a two bedroom condo in Kirkland at the north end of Lake Washington for about $200,000 that has 1.25 baths. While many homes show 2.25 baths or 3.25 baths, these homes do not actually have a .25 bath at all. A .25 “bath” is one extra fixture, usually not housed in a separate room at all. The 1.25 bath condo I will be listing has a sink and vanity area located in the master bedroom between the full bath (with jacuzzi) and the walk in closet. You enter this dressing area from inside the master bedroom. This is the best example of a real .25 bath. It is an area inside the master bedroom, just outside the full bathroom, where one can shave or put on their make up while the other is in the bathroom taking a shower.

Most homes that show 2.25 baths actually have 3 “bathrooms” involved that total this configuration. The most common setup is one “full bath” plus one “3/4 bath” plus one “1/2” bath, that totals 1 + .75 + .50 = 2.25 total baths. The 3/4 bath is most often attached to the master bedroom and has a shower stall and no tub, making it a toilet + sink + shower stall = 3/4 bath (3 fixtures – no tub). The full bath is usually located off the main hall and is used by the persons in the “other” bedrooms and has a tub (with shower in it) + toilet + sink equalling one “full” bath. A 1 3/4 bath home would normally be a rambler style on a single level, with the full hall bath doubling as the “guest bath”.

A 2.25 bath home would normally be a two story home with a 3/4 in the master, a full bath in the hall and a half bath on the main level, with a toilet and a sink only, so that one does not have to go up to the second floor to go to the bathroom. On the East Coast this is called a “powder room” from the old days when women pretended to be “powdering their nose” as opposed to relieving themselves 🙂 A 3.25 bath home would be similar, but might have four bedrooms rather than 3 with both a hall bath and a “Jack and Jill bath”. A “Jack and Jill bath” is a term used to describe a bathroom set between two bedrooms that can be accessed from either bedroom, but not from the hallway. I had one once, though in my case it would have been more aptly called a “Jill and Jill bath”, but I do not recommend it. The occupant of the bathroom enters from their bedroom and locks the door to the other bedroom from inside the bathroom while bathing. They are supposed to remember to unlock that door when they leave, but often don’t, causing the occupant of the other bedroom to be locked out from their side of the bathroom.

Another example of a .25 bath seen in some very old homes with basements, is a “below grade” toilet only, usually in the basement and sometimes called a “service toilet”. It is a stand alone toilet or a toilet in the washer and dryer area near the “utility sink”. It is often just sitting out in the open in an unfinished basement area used by a guy who is working on his car or in his workshop area in the basement, saving him a trip up the steps to the main bath.

I say this system is “antiquated” because housing trends have expanded, but the mls method of counting fixtures has not expanded with the times. For example, my master bathroom has a separate enclosure for the toilet area, a jacuzzi tub, two separate and distinct sink areas, and a large two headed shower stall. Technically that equals six “pieces” 2 sinks plus 2 showers plus jacuzzi tub plus toilet equals 6. But the mls makes no distinction between that type of elaborate master bath and a “full” bath. That is why you will often see the term “five piece bath” in the marketing remarks of a home, meaning there is a single head shower stall and a separate tub and double sinks. The “uitility sink” located in the washer and dryer area is never counted as a “fixture” when totalling up the bathroom fixture count.

So when you see a home listed as having 2.25 baths or 3.25 baths, stop looking for the .25 bath. It generally does not exist inside that home. Instead, expect to have a 3/4 bath with no tub in the master and a .50 bath on the main level with a toilet and sink only.

The Five-Minute-a-Day Habit

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[photopress:brazilsoccerhead_small.jpg,thumb,alignright]It’s been a while since we did a plug for David’s AHI blog. His blog is insightful, fun and for the price of only a few minutes a day, you can learn a lot! I don’t know how he does it, but he manages to write a quality article every day and they are almost always at the high level of today’s article on the relationsip between the World Cup, the world’s future, and affordable housing.

(You can learn more about David from this RCG interview!)

Hair Raising Fears of a Housing Bubble!!!

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[photopress:hair.JPG,thumb,alignright]It is very difficult for young people today to buy with confidence. There are some very real fears, and justifiably so, that housing prices can not and will not continue to rise at the levels they have in recent years. Some ask if they should wait until they have saved 20% down. Historically, most people have bought their first homes with less than 20% down for good reason. There are no guarantees that interest rates will not rise. Interest rates are still, historically very low. How would you feel if you waited to purchase only to find that prices were still high and interest rates were 9.5%?

Renting when you are a family with children has its risks. What do you do when one day the landlord knocks on the door and says “I’ve decided to sell the house and you all have to move out in 30 says”?

Anyone who can qualify for the first time buyer program at First Tech, should consider that option. It is an excellent program, with almost no loan costs and a very low interest rate. Take the time to find the very best loan program that you can and work on your credit score to insure you can get the best possible rate available.

When selecting property, try to convince yourself to buy that diamond in the rough. This way if values do not increase, you will still be able to sell at a profit. Buy the house that needs a lot of cosmetic fixes, but has good curb appeal and is in a decent area. Consider all of those areas that have only increased by 10% or 15% but border on areas that have increased by 30%. Buy that “old people” house in a great neighborhood that everyone else is turning their nose up at because it has sculptured carpet and pinch pleated avocado drapes.

The one sure way to buy with confidence is to ignore the cosmetic issues and don’t be fooled by heavy “staging” that might lure you into paying too much for the house. It has never been more important to buy wisely. It has never been more important to avoid making choices based on creature comforts like “needs nothing”, totally remodeled or brand new, less than 15 minutes to work. Don’t get tangled up in these creature comfort premiums, unless you are willing to face the fact that the tradeoff may be having to sell for less than you paid when you need to move.

There are still plenty of values and many of them require a little TLC like paint and landscaping. Be the smart buyer who isn’t crying the blues in a year or two if prices level out or take a dip.

Bubble blog roundup

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Good news for people who like bad news:

And a couple of articles:

And if those aren’t enough, I suggest the tongue-in-cheek There is no Housing bubble!

It sure is easy to be a hater, isn’t it?

I think both sides are taking a foolish black-and-white approach to the bubble question; clearly there are some indicators that there is a real estate bubble, but the consensus seems to be that the risk of home prices plummeting is low. Home prices will probably be flat until inflation brings prices back to “normal” levels. My concern is that if house prices do pop precipitously, there are going to be serious consequences for home owners and non-homeowners alike.

A similar scenario, different context: A few years ago, the Fed found itself with a small risk of Very Bad Thing happening. That Very Bad Thing was deflation (remember that?). Few economists were convinced that actual Japan-style deflation would occur, but because of the potentially devastating effect of deflation on the economy, the Fed moved aggressively to combat it (giving us the cheap money we used to buy expensive homes) even though the solution could cause other problems. Why? Here is the economist (login required) in 2002 (slightly out of context):

… however small the risk of deflation, the economic cost would be so high that policymakers should respond as if it were a central risk.

Someone who is looking at a home today or who has a sizeable mortgage on their home today should look at all this bubble talk in the same way; the risk is low that your property value will decline 25% or even 10%, but the risk is certainly there. Specifically:

  • Do you have enough savings or equity to stay above water if your house loses 10% in value?
  • Is the risk of falling property values worth the potential upside?
  • If it isn’t a bubble now, what metrics or signs will you use to tell you if or when it is a bubble? (A corollary: Will those metrics tell you when it is a bubble or when the bubble is popping?)

Perhaps house valuations have fundamentally changed over the last 5-10 years and we there is no risk of house price declines. The one argument I do not buy is that our land use laws are making property more expensive; builders are cranking out hundreds units and making loads of money on each unit, meaning they could continue profiting even at lower price levels.

Galen

Can Real Estate ever ‘Bust’?

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Last week an investor called me from LA who is a stock broker. Our conversation got me thinking about the rich investment opportunity real estate provides, in spite of all the talk of a bubble burst. I’ve played the stock market for years and have won some and lost some but I’ve never been able to get it down to a predictable outcome. I invest in stocks because I’m told by financial advisors that I need to diversify. However, there is a way to invest that has many more controllable and dependable outcomes – Real Estate! Real Estate will never go out of business, never merge, never have problems with DOJ, never be outdone by the overseas manufacturing industry, never worry about ever changing technologies. There’s always supply and there’s always demand. With the exception of mother nature simply obliterating the landscape, real estate will always be there.

I don’t mean to paint an overly rosy picture here, but having been in the business for, gulp, nearly 30 years, and watching the ups and downs and downs and ups, (I once sold a home to a client with financing at 22%! not to mention using precious gems as a down payment!), I just don’t see the glass as half empty but rather half full. I have been a restaurant and marina owner and a real estate developer and investor, throughout the various market ups and downs. I suggest you look at real estate values over those last 30 years and see how many times they’ve multiplied. And we’ve had 5 or 6 ‘busts’ in that time. As a new licensee, I sold my first home for $32,500 in 1978 and today that home is listed at $495,000 – a multiple of 15 times. We all know this is true, so why are we all sitting around worrying? All this talk about real estate busting like the stock market did is just ridiculous. We’re not comparing apples with apples and even if the prices do go down, it will most likely be short term creating a great buying opportunity, and when prices bounce back we’ll all sit back and have a good laugh at all those naysayers with dour predictions.

I wish I’d taken my own advice in 1986 when I could have purchased 150 homes from a bank for 20 cents on the dollar. I didn’t have the foresight at that time to know what I am telling you now; real estate bounces back and prices rise even higher. Had I bought those homes that year, I’d be writing this from my estate in Maui! I’ve learned my lesson and now I want to share my perspective with you.

So, keep on investing. You may not be able to live off the profits from a short term flip but if you invest with someone that understands the market and the profit potential, you won’t have to worry about any ‘busts’ now or in the future.

New-home sales take a tumble

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The Seattle Times reports that new home sales are dropping nationally:

New-home sales fell by the biggest amount in almost nine years last month while home prices declined for a fourth straight month, raising concerns that the once high-flying housing market could be in for a rougher-than-expected landing.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 10.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 1.08 million homes.

It was the second straight monthly decline after a 5.3 percent fall in January, and marked the biggest one-month drop since April 1997.