Tag Archives: Market

Cocktail Party Primer

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76

I’d like to open this thread up to a conversation on the health of the Seattle market…

but there is a catch. I will not allow it to dissolve into a conversation about racism, liberals, RCG, or faith. If you’d like to have a reasonable intellectual conversation, you are more than welcome to participate. If you attack me, RCG, or any contributor, then I’ll happily delete your comment.

By the way, please consider this post the “anti-linkbating” post. Not only will I quickly delete any off topic comments, but more importantly, I will mark those comments as “spam”. That will allow me to ban your email, name, IP, etc. from the site after only a few off-topic comments.

Two days ago, Michael Lindekugel of Team Reba made a very interesting comment. No one ever challenged him on the merits of his argument, so I think it makes an appropriate starting point into a discussion on the health of the Seattle market:

It’s the hot topic at most cocktail parties. Is Seattle going to experience a bubble and burst? The short answer is no…..the long answer follows:

We experienced a busy market with a shortage of supply and increasing demand resulting in four or five offers and short “Days On Market

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride

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if-wishes-were-horsesIt’s much easier to “stick it to the man” when you’ve never met the man.

“If” the beginning of every residential real estate transaction were the buyers and the sellers and their agents meeting and chatting, maybe having dinner together and a drink or two for an hour. Then everyone walks through the house together while the seller tells the buyer the story of their life in the house and the buyer and agents ask questions. Then the offer is written, and proceeds through the inspections to find things the seller just truly doesn’t know about. At the end of the transaction when all items and terms are fully negotiated, the buyer comes into the room with a check in his hand. The seller comes into the room with the keys to all doors and garage door openers and manuals on appliances. The agents review the final numbers and nod to the closing agent.

Everyone smiles and shakes hands after the seller gets his check from the closing agent, and the seller hands over the keys to the new owner and wishes them much luck in the home they have lived in, and now pass forward to the new owners.

Believe it or not, that is how many of my original real estate transactions transpired, once we achieved balanced market conditions. For the past several years, more often than not, the buyers and sellers never even meet each other. The Seller’s Agent never meets the buyer and the Buyer’s Agent never meets the seller. The playing field seems to get nastier when it becomes a true buyer’s market or seller’s market. For the first time in many years, I am starting to see transactions that are more civil and fair to both parties.

I’ve been in this business long enough to see both buyer markets and seller markets. I’m still happiest when the market is balanced and all parties have met each other and treated one another with dignity and respect. I wish it were always so, but then, “if wishes were horses, beggars would ride…and there’d be no work for tinkers.”

Is it a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?

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We are, for the most part, in a “normal market”, meaning that in some segments, it is a Seller’s Market, while in another segment, in the same city and price range, it is a balanced to Buyer’s Market. I used this sample to show how, in a small geographic area and price range, you can have two types of markets going on simultaneously.

What does that mean to you as a buyer? If you find one in the charted area that shows 0 available and 24 sold in six months, you need to act quickly and be less picky about condition and location. If you find one in the area that has 15 available and 149 sold in the last six months (same City and same Price Range, different Zip Code) then you can take your time, be more picky and even wait for a better one.

What does that mean to you as a seller? If you are putting your property on market in the first graph area and price, you can likely push the price based on supply and demand and still sell quickly at full price. If you are a seller in the second market segment noted by the second graph, you will have more competition and should price competitively and put the property in the best showing condition possible.

I have not highlighted the true “Buyer’s Market” segment, which is one where only 3-5 of every 10 homes for sale, will sell at all, meaning the ratio is 10 sellers for every 3-5 buyers. That is occuring in higher price ranges (over $1,500,000) and harder to define market segments, and not necessarily as relevant to the average RCG reader.

Perhaps other agents who work further out, like Sultan, Monroe, Des Moines, etc… can do some stats in those areas for us. Anyone seeing the ratio of buyers to sellers such that there are not enough buyers in the marketplace to absorb current inventory in a reasonable timeframe?