Monorail Death Watch

Posted on July 18, 2005 by Dustin Luther

Inspired by Timothy Noah’s Death Watch (the latest regarding Karl Rove) series on slate, I’m tempted to start something on the Monorail as the whole operation seems to be in a death spiral lately… However, rather than go for the jugular, I’ve decided to give my view on how the monorail’s future became so dire.

After the defeat of Initiative 83 that would have effectively banned the monorail, the project seemed on a high. The monorail supporters (rightfully) saw the overwhelming support as a great sign in that the project could now move forward with the full support of the City (at least at the highest levels of the City government). However, as the negotiations between the sole-bidding contractor and the monorail agency dragged on, support seemed to wane. I heard numerous times from people who said that they were tired of all the delays and their support was waning with each passing day.

The latest crop of news began when the monorail announced on June 3rd that an tentative agreement had been reached with the prime contractor for the (relatively unusual) design, build AND operate contract.

On June 21, more details of the agreement were released to the public. This set into motion a series of articles documenting the total cost of the proposal. The Times has a decent article, while the PI put out sensationalist piece giving the total projects costs as “$11 billion”. This holds the monorail up to a higher standard than any other public project and is really just bad economics. For example, it is like saying the price you paid for your $400,000 home ballooned to $1,200,000 because that is the total amount you will pay over the life of your loan. The worst part of this journalism is that I’ve heard numerous individuals quote this number as if the cost of the monorail jumped from $1.7B to $11B overnight. This type of apples to oranges comparison seems irresponsible of the Seattle PI…

If the monorail fails someday, I would say that a definitely turning point happened around the time of the PI’s “$11 billion” article. After that, the Monorail Board and the City Council members had to start explaining economics in order to justify their positions, and this became a no-win situation. Both the Times and the PI ran articles describing how support was quickly evaporating.

Then on July 1, the Monorail board rejected the complicated 50-year financing scheme which led to the resignation of Project Executive Director Joel Horn and Board Chairman Tom Weeks. The Seattle Weekly has since written a scathing article about Joel Horn.

Does this mean that the monorail project is dead in Seattle? Not necessarily. The acting director is working hard to attact a new director and sway public opinion back in favor of the monorail. However, the odds are definitely against the monorail at this point.

On Friday (7/15) the editorial board from the Seattle PI, which has generally been a supporter of the monorail, gave an editorial which asks for the final nail to be put in the coffin of the project. (This had the anti-monorail voices over at the Sound Politics blog jumping for joy, or as one writer put it: “Stunned. Encouraged, but stunned.”)

Can’t get enough monorail information? Here’s a list of my resources:

Official Monorail Project Site
City’s Monorail Site
The Seattle Times Monorail Page
The Seattle PI Monorail Page
Friends of the Monorail
Cascadia Monorail Company (contractor)
OnTrack (“Keeping the monorail accountable”)
State Monorail Tax Site (facts on the tax)
Seattle Monorail Blog(relatively new blog)

Fannie Mae Sees Mortgage Risks

Posted on July 13, 2005 by Dustin Luther

If you are interested in more blogs with a real estate focus, BusinessWeek has put together a new blog called Hot Property. The concept is great, and so far, the articles have been quite informative.

Today, they had an interesting article describing a Fannie Mae’s analysis of how many individuals could be hit hard when “adjustable-rate mortgages do what they were born to do–i.e., adjust.”

When taken to the extreme in the form of interest-only loans, adjustable-rate mortgages seem downright dangerous for the novice investor. As I’ve said in the past, I’d be very careful and do my research before getting an interest-only loan…

George Washington, the real estate mogul?

Posted on July 13, 2005 by Anna

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Revolutionary War general, father of our country, cherry-tree murderer. Many descriptions come to mind when we invoke the name of George Washington.

Real estate mogul isn’t one of them. But it should be.

This fun San Francisco Chronicle column continues…

At the tender age of 15, Washington became a professional land surveyor and cartographer, a short-lived career that would have a long-term influence on his destiny. Among his earliest jobs, he laid out the subdivision plan for Alexandria, Va., adding “urban planner” to his résumé. By the time he quit to join the Virginia colonial militia a few years later, he had surveyed some 66,000 acres of land and traversed most of what would become the original 13 United States.

Walking the land seemed to whet his appetite for owning it. He learned to assess property and poured his earnings into buying tracts of land near and far. By the time he was 21, he owned 1,558 acres of land purchased from his earnings as a surveyor. By the time he died, Washington was one of the country’s wealthiest landowners.

monorail image is a negative?

Posted on July 12, 2005 by Dustin Luther

Interestingly, when I saw the above image in the Seattle Times today, I thought, “That looks kind of cool.” It was only after I read the article headline (“Monorail foes decry “wall”‘) that I found out that the image was suppose to show how ugly 2nd Avenue would be with the monorail. There are definitely some good reasons to be against a monorail in Seattle, but showing images of a built up downtown environment does not do it for me!

Thanks to City Comfort Blog for pointing this issue out. I probably wouldn’t have thought to blog the obvious contradiction until I read your post.

Good Time to Buy?

Posted on July 11, 2005 by Dustin Luther

Are you wondering if now is a good time to buy a home? There are so many factors that have gone into the latest housing boom that it can be difficult to gauge whether or not the high prices are here to stay. With that said, today’s Wall Street Journal makes a pretty convincing case that the hot job market in Seattle has led to the rising home prices. (I’m pretty sure this article is only available today before it goes behind a firewall.)

How does the Seattle-area job market look into the future? There are still lots of upsides to the local job market. The WSJ notes that the “area gained more than 45,000 jobs in 2004” with Boeing accounting for “more than 3,700 workers”. In addition, Microsoft has a “20-year plan to add 2.2 million square feet of offices to its 435-acre suburban Redmond campus to accommodate as many as 12,000 new employees.” .

The WSJ also notes that “homes are selling for a premium in some locations along proposed routes for two ambitious transportation projects: a light-rail link and a monorail line that would offer commuters alternatives to cars and buses. There are plans for a 36-story condo tower along the proposed monorail at the historic Pike Place Market.” This analysis from the WSJ agrees with my earlier post about how mass transit has a HUGE positive effect on local property values.

Preapproval financing letter may not be worth much

Posted on July 11, 2005 by Anna

The Seattle Times ran an interesting article on how on-line preapproval letters. It should serve as a warning to sellers to make sure that you are getting a pre-approval letter that is actually worth the paper it is printed on.

The agents said 39 percent of preapprovals issued by Internet-based lenders are faulty or invalid. Nearly 30 percent of mortgage broker-issued preapprovals are in the same category, along with one out of every five preapprovals from national lenders.”
A faulty preapproval letter may say something to the effect that “We have preapproved Mr. and Mrs. Flanagan for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.5 percent in an amount not to exceed $500,000.” That allows the Flanagans to look at — and bid on — homes without anybody seeing proof of their actual qualifications.

But what happens when the lender simply relies on Mr. and Mrs. Flanagan’s statements about their income, assets and credit, and issues a preapproval without verifying the information?

“That’s where you can get into deep trouble,” says John Marcell Jr., a real-estate broker who is the incoming president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. He runs Compass Realty and Better Mortgage Brokers, both based in Upland, Calif.

Marcell’s loan brokerage does not issue preapprovals for buyers whose credit files, assets and income have not been verified, and his realty firm won’t accept preapproval letters if the information has not been confirmed by the lender or broker issuing the letter.

“In those cases [functioning as Realtor] we go to the [mortgage] broker and say, ‘Look, we’ve got to see the credit reports. We’ve got to see the W-2s. We’ve got to see the bank statements.’ ”

Compass Realty also warns the seller on homes it lists whenever preapprovals look dubious.

Seattle Real Estate Blogs

Posted on July 10, 2005 by Dustin Luther

[photopress:half_dome.jpg,thumb,alignright]The problem with most real estate blogs is that after an initial flurry of activity, the bloggers quit making regular updates. However, there are two new seattle real estate blogs that have been providing some great information and hopefully, they will be around for the long haul.

Seattle Property News is written by an annomous individual who claims:

I’m not a real estate professional, just a Seattle resident who enjoys tracking the world around me, in a literal sense, by watching real estate trends and discovering the stories behind different properties around the region. I started this site for myself, as an open notebook of the information I find interesting.

However, I find the writing to be too full of technical details to believe that the person is involved in the real estate industry in some manner. Keep up the great work!

Seattle Real Estate Talk has also been putting some interesting content together. As it stands, this site is currently producing content similar to Rain City Guide in that it covers general interest real estate news and local Seattle updates.

There is definitely room for some more good real estate information in Seattle, so good luck to both of these blogs!

Troll Avenue North

Posted on July 10, 2005 by Anna

[photopress:victorious_half_dome.jpg,thumb,alignright]I just returned from a wonderful vacation in Yosemite to find out that two blocks of Aurora Avenue are proposed to be renamed Troll Avenue North. Such huge news! 🙂

We had a wonderful time, and while my family didn’t make it up to the top of Yosemite Falls (so we do not have a “five-years later” photo), my husband did make it up to the top of Half Dome!

[photopress:river_rafting.jpg,thumb,alignleft]With over 40 members of my family in the valley, our vacation involved lots of laid back time with family. We went on many small hikes and found time to go river rafting just about every day. So much fun!

Anyway, I’m sure that as I go through all the websites that I missed while on vacation, I’m going to find lots of stuff to blog about. I’ve got lots of reading (and writing) to do! In particular, google came out with an official “API” for their on-line mapping which should simplify the development of the ghomes tool that I’ve put together. I’m going to work on that this afternoon, and hopefully, I’ll have something interesting to share with you soon!

Freedom and Independence!

Posted on July 4, 2005 by mary

[photopress:100_1769.JPG,thumb,alignright]Happy Fourth of July! I could go on and on about how home ownership is the key to independence and how it can give you freedom from renting, but instead here are the Seattle PI’s list of celebrations around town. Hope you all have a safe and magical 4th of July!

P.S. If you are interested in the whole independence and home ownership discussion- don’t hesitate to call!

Mary Jereczek

Yosemite Vacation

Posted on June 29, 2005 by Anna

I’m taking a week-long vacation at Yosemite National Park, but that doesn’t mean that Rain City Guide will go on a break as well… Mary Jereczek has kindly offered to step up and write posts in my absence!

This is a great time to mention that I’m really thrilled with the response that I’ve had from my call for guess bloggers. I think that these top title representatives, mortgage brokers and real estate agents offer an interesting and useful perspective and really help round out the discussion on this site! I look forward to having more guest bloggers and welcome anyone who might be interested!

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By the way, this photo of my family was taken at the top of Yosemite Falls five years ago! Obviously, my daughter has grown considerably since then! It should be a lot of fun to show her the incomparable valley again now that she is old enough to appreciate it!