What Drives an Active Online Community?

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You do with your comments!

When I give talks about the value of blogs, I always brag about how active the rain city guide community is, but I hadn’t thought to try quantify it until I saw John Cook’s post this morning.

Over the past 3+ years, we’ve had 30,802 comments from 1,744 posts!

This is an average of over 17 comments for every post!  That’s pretty darn impressive!

It’s kind of fun to look back at the posts that have generated the most conversations, so I thought I’d list all the posts that have generated over 100 comments:

* 200+ comments

So much great stuff thanks to the entire RCG community!

The Housing Rescue Bill

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Today President Bush signed a housing “rescue” bill HR 3221.  I’m really still absorbing all of this (I think it’s taking me a bit longer after my trip to Inman Connect).   Here are a few quick pointers:

The FHA risked base mortgage insurance pricing (which I’m in favor of) that was to be effective last week is now postponed until September 30, 2009.   FHA can now save some borrowers in trouble with their mortgage if their existing lender will forgive the underlying debt to 85% 90% of the current value of the home.   Gee…risked based MIP might be handy in these cases.

Also with FHA, Seller paid down payment assistance programs are will be gone and the minimum down payment for an FHA insured loan will be 3.5% (which is a very small increase) beginning October 1, 2008.

Jumbo FHA and Jumbo Conforming loan limits will be reduced from the current 125% of median home value to 115% of the median home value beginning January 1, 2009.   As I mentioned, your days of a loan amount of $567,500 are numbered.   The new conforming/FHA jumbo limit may be closer to $520,000.  

First time homebuyers (someone who has not had interested in a property for the past 3 years) are eligible to receive a tax credit…however, it’s really an interest free loan to be paid back over 15 years or from the proceeds when the home is sold (which ever comes first).  This is available only for homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009.  Income restrictions do apply.   For more information, check out this website.   

Last but not least (and I’m sure I’m missing stuff) Fannie and Freddie have a new regulator: The Federal Finance Housing Agency aka FHFA.   This from James B. Lockhart:

“Today President Bush signed the ‘Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.’ I thank President Bush and Secretary Paulson for their leadership in making government sponsored enterprise (GSE) regulatory reform a reality.

The Act creates a world-class, empowered regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), with all the authorities necessary to oversee vital components of our country’s secondary mortgage markets — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks — at a very challenging time.  As Director of the new agency I look forward to working with the combined Federal Housing Finance Board (FHFB), Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHEO) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) GSE Mission teams and with other regulators to ensure the safety and soundness of the 14 housing related GSEs and the stability of the nation’s housing finance system.

For more than two years as Director of OFHEO I have worked to help create FHFA so that this new GSE regulator has far greater authorities than its predecessors.  As Director of FHFA, I commit that we will use these authorities to ensure that the housing GSEs provide stability and liquidity to the mortgage market, support affordable housing and operate safely and soundly.”

Too much to write about in detail for one post…just wanted to throw you some bits.

Who Should Get Out Of The Real Estate Business?

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Dustin, Jillayne, Rhonda, Galen and I were all in San Francisco for a few days for The Inman Connect Conference.  One of the most profound and spot on statements I heard at the Conference was “If you do not have a listing, right now, in THIS market (top-heavy with inventory)…turn in your license!”. Sorry I can’t remember who said it.  In fact I think it was a woman in the audience and not on one of the panels.  But how TRUE is THAT!  With inventory at all time highs, can you say you are a real estate agent if you have NO listings?! I thought that was a punch in the glass jaw to some of the agents milling around the conference.

The highlight of my trip was when Pete Flint of Trulia came over to me at the Better Homes and Gardens Soiree and handed me his card.  He recognized me from Trulia Voices 🙂  I gained a huge respect for him given our conversation.  We were talking about Trulia Voices vs. Zillow Q & A, and I was impressed with his sincere level of interest in opinions on the subject. Trulia had the best party, BTW.  A funny in the Trulia Voices link up there.  One of the agents immediately gave my response a “thumbs down”, while at the same time the person who asked the question voted it as Best Answer.  Oh well, you can’t please everyone.

I still feel guilty about keeping Marc Davison of 1000 Watt Blog up so late that he missed his Panel Moderation the next morning.  Brian Boero filled in for him. Officially the reason for his missing the panel was related to his recuperation of severed finger.  But I can’t help but feel that had I let him get a little more sleep the night before, he might have made it.  Yet, I can’t say I’m sorry for detaining him for so long…I just didn’t want to let him go.  He’s an amazing person.

I’m hoping Inman or Sellsius will post a video of the panel I was on, moderated by Joe Ferrara.  I was a little nervous about being on a panel with THREE attorneys!  Russ Cofano, Joe Ferrara the moderator and the woman from NAR. I was told afterward that something I said was Twittered into cyberspace instantaneously. Not sure what it was…I wasn’t Twittering on my iPhone while speaking on the panel. I got visibly annoyed with Todd Carpenter during the discussion (sorry Todd). The Panel was on “How Not To Get Sued” as a blogger.  Todd was basically saying to be nice and avoid controversial topics.  But Russ and I had a really nice conversation and rapport on stage. (No Tim, no Punch and Judy show.)

I was the only one in the room that clapped for Frank Llosa on “The Future of the MLS” panel when he spoke of the button next to the Listing Agent info that explains why, as a buyer, you might not want to call the Listing Agent. Here’s a quote from Frank’s website that will give you an idea of why I like him ”

“TRUST ME, I’M A REALTOR” Yeah Right! When was the last time a REALTOR talked you OUT of buying a house or condo?…”

The big “visual event” of the trade show was a new Franchise called “BUG Realty”. “At Bug!…We are the “no hype,

Sunday Night Stats – Where's the market heading?

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Tonight I want to get an idea of where the market is heading as we go into July, as to prices.  I’m going to bulk together some Zip Codes that I personally follow, to have a large enough area to be meaningful, and yet zero in on local at the same time.

I’m getting the data as I am typing, so I have no idea how the numbers will fall.  We’ll find out together.

First Group: 98033, 98052, 98004, 98005, 98007 and 98008 on a combined basis.

Residential:

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $652,450 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $625,000.  Median days on market of those sold homes was 68 days and 27.66% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $267.66

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price $643,500.  Median Sold Price $630,000.  Median Days on Market 41 and 38.28% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $272.72

June 2008: median Asking Price $710,000.  median sold price $690,000. Median days on market 61 and 33.58% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.10

July month to date: Median Asking Price $650,000.  median sold price $639,000.  Median days on market 50 and 30.92% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.57.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,520 sf home.

Some pretty large homes are in escrow with the median square footage of all homes in escrow at 2,660 and a medain price per square foot of $262.20.  Of course that $262.20 is asking price and not sold price, so prices are trending down from July 1 to present.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $699,000.  Median Sold Price $685,000.  Median days on market 21 and 61.09% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $292.73.  Median type of house was a 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2,340 sf home.

Interesting July stats so far.  The size of home is larger, the price is lower.  More home for less money as I said last week.  Very Interesting.  But the numbers are so different from May and June. Fewer houses sold quickly.  This data is worth tracking week to week, especially as we head into fall.

Second Group Seattle 98115 and 98103 on a combined basis excluding townhomes (townhomes on Eastside automatically not included for the most part, as on The Eastside townhomes are condos and not residential). Trying to keep this apples to apples.

In January of 2008: median Asking Price of homes sold was $540,000 and the median Sold Price of those same homes was $522,500  Median days on market of those sold homes was 51 days and 29.57% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $253.64

Lets jump to May 2008 and see where the market went by that time from the beginning of the year.  Median Asking Price $595,000.  Median Sold Price $580,000.  Median Days on Market 20 and 61.97% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $277.51

June 2008: median Asking Price $550,000.  median sold price $546,000. Median days on market 29 and 54,02% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $265.04

July month to date: Median Asking Price $567,450.  median sold price $553,450.  Median days on market 23 and 56.90% sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $261.67.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,115 sf home.

Let’s compare that to June of 2007: Median Asking Price $567,000.  Median Sold Price $569,500.  Median days on market 13 and 75.93% of homes sold in 30 days or less.  Median Price Per Square Foot = $273.79.  Median type of house was a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath 2,080 sf home.

The median asking price of all pending sales is $535,000 and the median square footage is 2,085.  Looks like better “deals” are in escrow as we speak at $256.59 MPPSF as to ASKING prices with that number to be pared down further as to sold prices.

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)


Unless someone asks for the regular weekly King County Stats, I’ll post them over on my blog tomorrow.  It’s been a long, back-breaking day for me.  I was more interested in finding out where the market was heading, than posting overall King County since last Sunday.  But I will post them on my blog tomorrow for the benefit of those who have been charting them on Excel Spreadsheets.

Goodnight!

*****************

You can find the regular weekly stats here.

Tami Michaels re Mayor Nickels & Multi-Family Design Standards

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Home Improvement Radio Expert Seattle 770 KTTHTomorrow morning, Saturday July 26th, at 11:00 a.m., a representative of the Seattle Mayor’s Office will be On Air with Tami Michaels.  The show will be devoted to Mayor Nickels proposed changes to multi-family zoned construction (original announcement from the Mayor’s Office).

And more details about Tami’s show tomorrow here.

Tami called me before I left for Inman Connect to discuss this topic, specifically with regard to regulations that could increase costs for builders and consumers at a time when the housing market is weakening.  The discussion led to the age old question “Can government dictate taste in housing style?”

I have had many discussions over the years with various municipalities regarding this topic, and they all hinge on this quote from City Councilmember, Sally Clark “The mayor and I have both heard a lot lately about how growth is affecting our neighborhoods, not all of it is positive…”

Over the span of my 18 plus years in real estate in various places on both Coasts, I have become involved with this issue from time to time, and EVERY time it boils down to nothing happening except a bunch of controversy with little to no satisfactory result.  I have been to several “town meetings” where everyone who was griping was invited to attend and participate in discussions to improve whatever everyone “wanted” or was griping about.  Each time what became apparent as a result of these meetings is that you can never get everyone to agree, and sometimes you can’t even get people to attend the meetings!!!  It’s one thing to hang around griping about change, it’s quite another to be asked to get involved in a viable solution.

So I ask anyone who thinks they might have something to add to the discussion regarding proposed changes to multi-family zoned building projects in Seattle, to head on over to Tami Michaels’ post and add a comment.  I’m going to listen to tomorrow’s radio show and gather more info before commenting.  Maybe you would like Free Flushes to become mandatory…maybe not.

Anyone involved in Seattle Real Estate, or residents who have something to add about townhomes or the proposal in general, should tune in tomorrow at 11:00. “The changes would affect the 10 percent of the city zoned for multifamily construction, from low-rise development throughout the city to high-rise residential towers on First Hill. The change is heralded by the Mayor’s Office as “… the first major update to multifamily zoning in Seattle in 20 years.”

Don’t let a once in 20 years change pass by, without at least craning your neck to take a peek at what it’s all about.

The Housing Crisis is Like Hurricane Katrina

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There were four back-to-back panel sessions on the topic of Foreclosures at Real Estate Connect this morning. Here are some sound bites and quotes.

There are 25,000 homes per MONTH in California that are going back to the lender.  This is going to create a glut of housing inventory for many months into the forseeable future.  The percentage of loan modifications that are re-defaulting and going into foreclosure is high.  Estimates are 40% or higher.

In Cali, the very low end price range REO homes are now selling to long term investors who are are able to put a renter in that house and make their cash flow goals. 

There are an estimated 400,000 people living in their homes for free in California right now.  Lenders are stalling the foreclosure process because there simply is not enough people working in the loss mitigation departments to process all the paperwork.

There is a huge problem nationwide with listing agents who are taking short sale listings and have no clue on how to help the homeowner navigate through the short sale process.

Quote: “This [the housing crisis] is like Hurricane Katrina.”

Question to the panelists: How can consumers who are facing foreclosure help themselves?
Answer from Frances Flynn Thorsen, “Stay away from Realtors.” 

Jillayne here. That answer brought forth many laughs and suprised blurts of shock.  I personally think this took quite a lot of moxie to say in a room filled with Realtors. The point Frances was trying to make was that not all homeowners who are in default want to sell their home!  When real estate agents stick with only a single mindset that selling is the ONLY option, they are doing a grave disservice to their clients.  Frances said it is imperative that agents connect homeowners with either Acorn or NACA or some other HUD-approved Housing Counseling Agency that can effectively negotiate with the lender, and to make sure the homeowner receives legal counsel from attorneys who specialize in consumer protection law, which is something they can find at NACA. 

There are very few loan modifications being granted if the homeowner is seriously underwater. The example given was $2,000 in monthly income and $11,000 in monthly debts.  No loan mod for that consumer because the chances of re-defaulting are way too high.  This homeowner may be better served through the foreclosure process.

The loan modifications that are granted are often done by lowering the interest rate on the note to say, 3% for a fixed period of time such as three years, but with NO principal reduction. 

Jillayne again.  I say this practice may lead to a build up of shadow inventory that could end up hitting the market in 2011 and further drawing out the housing recession into 2012.

Short sales in Florida are a complete waste of time.  Buyers in Florida are looking at sellers with equity or REOs ONLY.  Banks are only now starting to dump their REOs by lowering the prices in order to get them off their boooks.

Florida should WISH FOR another Florida bank failure because then the other banks will become extremely nervous about the bank regulators poking around and will begin to get real with dropping the prices on REOs in order to clear out their inventory, especially the closer we get to the end of a quarter.

“Real estate agents have a moral and fiduciary duty to our clients.  We have a duty to try and maintain values.  We should be encouraging sellers to help hold the value by offering to “buy down” the interest rate instead of lowering the sales price.”

Jillayne here again.  That quote came from LJ Jennings, a real estate broker/owner.  I’m not so sure that holding prices artificially high could pass a fiduciary test.  This may NOT be in the client’s best interest.

VERY interesting insight from a data analyst. She said some companies would rather stick with data that their analysts have been using INSTEAD OF showing NEW data to their end users….because then their existing analysts would be proven wrong and the company doesn’t want to deal with that. 

Take aways:

  • Banks will begin to “throttle out” their inventory quarter to quarter,
  • A lot more big pools of scratch and dent (loans with problems) loans will start to be sold off in bulk to investors
  • Lenders will slow down the default process for due diligence and accounting reasons
  • In the second have of 2008, 100 billion (correction: dollars) in loans will reset.  If ONLY 13% default, this is a huge number of homes that will impact inventory levels for the years to follow.
  • Hundreds of thousands of Alt A loans will reset in 2009.
  • Foreclosure relief bill is a little too late.  Our problem right now is that lenders are afraid to lend on a declining asset and buyers are afraid to buy.  The bill does more to shore up confidence in Fannie and Freddie than anything else.
  • There ARE options for a homeowner in default who does not want to sell.
  • Foreclosure is only a temporary part of a person’s life.  Life goes on.
  • Loan modifications and short sales are being done faster through banks that have a history of predatory lending (this is a concept I’ve been teaching for 8 years now.)

I have an entire set of notes from the attorney who spoke on the liability issues agents face when listing REO homes. I’ll have to do a separate blog article on that for you. 

Reporting from ConnectSF08

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I’m here at the beautiful Palace Hotel in San Francisco for the Real Estate Connect conference put on by Inman News.  I’ve been to Connect conferences in the past and came away with some fond memories of presentations by Larry Page and John Seely Brown.  I’m sure my raincityguide blogger colleagues are here someplace; by this time of night I’ll guess they’re out drinking and I’ll hook up with them tomorrow.  There are two tracks to choose from tomorrow morning, blogging and foreclosures.  Guess which one I signed up for?  Tomorrow afternoon, Brad Inman delivers the opening keynote “How the Nomadic Culture Will Rock Your World” and right after that, we’ll here from Craig Newmark and RCG’s Dustin Luther and THEN finally, “The Housing Debate: Bull v. Bear” panel with two of my favorite bloggers, CR from CalculatedRisk and Yves Smith from Naked Capitalism.  It doesn’t look like all the meals are covered so if anyone who knows San Francisco has suggestions for where to step out for a quick bite, please let me know. I’m across the street from the Mongtomery Street BART station and I am armed with a four day BART pass. 

Sunday Night Stats

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Before I did the Quarterly and Weekly stats tonight, I did a few calculations on newer vs. older property.  I was wondering with lower volume, if more newer properties were selling at a higher rate.  Given more choices, would people disproportionately select newer homes and condos?  Answer was no, not dispropotionately. 

35% of residential properties for sale were built since 2000 and 33% of properties sold YTD were built since 2000.    32% of condos for sale were built since 2000 and 38% of condos sold were built since 2000.  So a tad overweighted toward newer on condos, but not by much. 

The significant news this year, since volume of property sold being down is really last year’s news that continues in a stablilized manner, is that this is the first time in many years that the MPPSF is lower in the 2nd quarter than in the 1st Quarter. 

The scarier number is the $206 per square foot on the residential properties currently in escrow.  It is quite possible that this lower number is being caused by short sales that are not closing at these low numbers.  Short sales take a long time to close, so we may not know that answer until the end of the 3rd Quarter.

King County Condos

2004 – 1Q – 1,694 – $188, 2Q 2,636 – $199, 3Q 2,540 – $196, 4Q 2,176 – $195

2005 – 1Q – 2,066 – $198, 2Q 2,925 – $209, 3Q 2,769 – $226, 4Q 2,266 – $224

2006 – 1Q – 1,956 – $242, 2Q 2.748 – $252, 3Q 2,737 – $269, 4Q 2,217 – $278

2007 – 1Q – 2,042 – $295, 2Q 2,862 – $302, 3Q 2,676 – $311, 4Q 1,618 – $294

2008 – 1Q – 1,258 – $299, 2Q 1,508 – $287

Changes in condo stats for this week

Active Listings: 3,958 – UP 90- median price $319,990 – MPPSF  asking $312 – DOM 65

In Escrow:  856 –  DOWN 14 – median asking price $289,000  – MPPSF asking $294  – DOM – 49

Sold YTD :  2,955 – UP 178 – median list price $290,000 – median sold price  $287,000 – median PPSF – $290 DOM 49  

Residential King county

2004 – 1Q 5,650 – $152, 2Q 9,237 – $160, 3Q 8.737 – $163, 4Q 7,467 – $165

2005 – 1Q 6,402 – $173, 2Q 9,093 – $185, 3Q 9,131 – $192, 4Q 7,301 – $195

2006 – 1Q 5,596 – $201, 2Q 8,248 – $214, 3Q 7,771 – $216, 4Q 6,204 – $217

2007 – 1Q 5,304 – $222, 2Q 7,393 – $230, 3Q 7,944 – $229, 4Q 4,301 – $221

2008 – 1Q 3,640 – $219, 2Q 4,641 – $220

Changes in residential stats for this week

In Escrow: 2,760 – UP 2- median asking price $425,000 – DOM 48 – MPPSF $206

SOLD YTD: 8,963 –  UP 648- median asking $449,950 – median sold price $440,000- DOM 49 – MPPSF $223 

Actively for sale 12,339 – UP 436- MPPSF <$800,000 is $220- MPPSF >$800,000 is $335

Stats not compiled or published by NWMLS. (Required disclosure)