Tag Archives: Zillow

10 Things You Should Know Before Moving to Seattle

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Where do you find inspiration?

Out of all the places to find inspiration for a blog post, my current favorite is deep within the RCG stats where I can find the search terms that people use to reach this site. Today, someone came to RCG looking for: [things+you+should+know+before+moving+to+Seattle], and while we likely disappointed that particular visitor, I would like to make amends by offering up this list of ten things you should know before moving to Seattle:

rain in Seattle1) It rains.

2) No really, it rains a lot here. Despite what they say about it raining more in Atlanta, Boston, or D.C., the rain in Seattle can be like a slow trickle that never turns off. But the rain is okay… really… because one day… some day… it stops. And on those first few warm, sunny spring days, all of life is good in a way that Californians will never understand (unless they move to Seattle).

3) Seattle isn’t always comfortable being a high-tech town. Sure we design operating systems, sell stuff online, try to appraise every home in America and stream lots of music and movies, but a substantial portion of the population relates much more to the art of building airplanes.

4) Consensus Rules. Just agree with me on this one or I’ll never be able to get to #5.

5) Traffic Rules. People in Seattle talk a lot more about traffic than the weather. Depending on where you are moving from, traffic will either be horrible or a non-issue. Most blue-state people will laugh at Seattle traffic because you can normally get between any two points in the City in under a half-hour at all times of the day. Red-state people see the parking lot known as SR 520 and wonder why we haven’t build another bridge yet (see #4 for a hint at the answer).

6) Seattle is not that big. We have all the stuff associated with life in a major city: Theaters, traffic, ballets, sports teams, traffic, skyscrapers, music, etc., but you really don’t have to travel far to feel like you are in rural America.

7) Seattle is closer to Asia than Mexico. If one of the staples of your diet consists of cheap and tasty Mexican food, then you will eventually replace that staple with Pho. The sooner you accept this (and the sooner you stop saying “The Mexican food is so much better in California”), the sooner Seattleites will let you know about the good Asian restaurants. (And by the way, since we’re talking about good food, I feel obliged to mention that the Mexican food I remember growing up with in California was so much better than anything you can find in Seattle…)

8) The intersection of NE 50th St and 40th Ave NE is about a mile away from 50th Ave NE and NE 40th St. In the Seattle area, all the street names are numbered and given one of nine directions (NW, N, NE, SW, S, SE, E, W or blank). The numbers begin at 1 in downtown Seattle and radiate out wards. The directions also radiate out, but are city specific, unless, of course, they aren’t… Like at the intersection of 244th St SW, 100th Ave W, N 205th St and 8th Ave NW. There is logic to the entire street system and if you live here long enough, you will understand. Until then, you will be confused and miss appointments, meetings, birthdays, etc.. On a related real estate note, if you are new to Seattle, do not attempt to search for a home without a real estate agent. The street system was designed by a committee of real estate agents who wanted to ensure that you need their help to locate a home. 😉 Also on a related note, Redfin has proposed new street names (featuring real names) for all streets in a effort to ensure the viability of their business model, but at this point, they are still very far from getting consensus on their proposed naming convention.

9) Paul Allen.

10) Despite what you might have read in Wired, Fremont is the Center of the Universe.

Have I covered everything?

Actively Searching for Another Zillow to Announce in March

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[photopress:unique_visitors_1.jpg,full,centered] [photopress:total_visitors.jpg,full,centered]

And following John’s lead, here were the five most popular posts on Rain City Guide (in terms of total hits) in February:

The five most popular posts (in terms of comments) for February:

Something’s Afoot in the Real Estate Business – but what does it mean and where is it going?

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(Editor’s Note: I few weeks ago, I sat down with Chuck Reiling to discuss an MIT Enterprise Forum he is helping to organize that will feature leaders from some of the top real estate technology firms. His excitement at the idea of bring people from Zillow, Redfin and HouseValues together to discuss the future of real estate was obvious and contagious. Hence, I asked him if he would be willing to give some background on the project, which led directly to this post. Interestingly he’s not the only one who is excited about this forum as he the story was already picked up by both Robert Gray Smith and John Cook. Chuck and his wife are local RE/MAX agents.)

There’s been lots of local and national press lately about new online real estate offerings like Zillow and Redfin. With lots of investor money moving into the arena, we know there is change afoot. The question is, how much change, and for whom? Change for the consumer? Agents? Both?

As Ardell described recently in her “History of Real Estate” articles (Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3), the residential real estate business is always in a state of change. Ten years ago the online MLS systems caused a lot of change. The listing books got thrown away, and a few agents who couldn’t adapt went with them. Then the MLS derivative sites started appearing, with MLS download data becoming available to the public. People could start doing their own online searches without having to call an agent, or cruise the streets on Sunday afternoon looking for open houses. So change is ongoing, and maybe there are only a few real (no pun intended) points of stability.

My daddy and my uncle were both brokers years ago. The only points we still have in common with their businesses seem to be clients, agency law, and the For Sale sign in the yard; almost everything else has changed. For a long time, ‘public’ records in boxes in warehouses were not very publicly accessible for most of us, but government agencies (state, local and federal) are rapidly putting their public records information online to support their operations, and incidentally help us too. And new services like Redfin, Zillow and House Values make that data even easier to use in support of their own business models. As we see locally, the big four real estate companies, Windermere, Coldwell Banker, John L. Scott and RE/MAX are also exploiting that data in conjunction with MLS data on their sites. None of this has changed the basic business model of professionally assisted transactions with buyer and seller agent commissions. While the traditional model has been a subject of debate for a long time, and a lot of creative alternative business models and offerings have been tried, the industry is still seems to be running on business as usual.

However, there is also a lot of technology-driven change right now. Someone with a background in the high-tech industry might observe that real estate looks like just one more industry about to be disrupted by the Internet – changes caused by dramatically improved information availability, rapid communications and online business models. But residential real estate is still dominated by local interests, its product is both expensive (understatement) and unique, and there are a lot of local and national consumer protection laws on the books – some good, some bad, and more coming. So who is right, and what will happen next?

To try to pull together a picture of the impact of these changes, and where they might lead, a local organization called MIT Enterprise Forum is focusing one of its dinner programs on the topic of Online Real Estate (clever title). The Forum focuses on highlighting business issues and opportunities for tech-driven companies and entrepreneurs. The Online Real Estate program will be on Wednesday, March 15, at the Bellevue Hyatt Hotel. See www.mitwa.org for program details and reservations.

These MIT Forum events typically draw 200 to 400 attendees, and this one will probably be on the larger side. For better or worse, it seems like everyone is interested in real estate these days. The program will be panel-based, with a traditional real estate broker, a top online agent and execs from Redfin, Zillow and House Values, with an open Q&A session at the end. I’m on the program team that is pulling the program together, and I’d have to say I expect a very lively conversation on the stage that evening. 🙂

Forget tradition! The New World of Buying and Selling Real Estate

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I’ve been going to the MIT Forum’s dinner topics for years as a technology geek. Now that I’m in real estate, I’m still finding applicable topics. Let me put my plug in for the MIT Forum first — The Northwest Chapter of the MIT Forum hosts monthly dinner meetings with topics relating to business and technology. The topics cover the spectrum from computer technology, biotech, nano technology and yes…now real estate technology trends. Always interesting!!

Topic:

Transformation is afoot. Remember how Expedia revolutionized the travel industry? Now companies in our own backyard, including Redfin, HouseValues and Zillow, are offering online technologies that are transforming the real estate industry. From online valuations and lead generation to completing the legal transaction, these companies aim to exploit opportunities in the business of residential real estate. Home buyers, sellers and real estate agents are changing the way that they do business.

Panelists:

  • David Eraker, Founder, Redfin
  • Spencer Rascoff, CFO, Zillow, Inc.
  • Nikesh Parekh, VP of Corporate Development, HouseValues, Inc.
  • Gordon Stephenson, Co-Owner and Managing Broker, Real Property Associates, Inc., Director, Zillow, Inc

March 15, 5:30PM – Tickets are $50 at the door (less if you buy ahead of time). Visit http://www.mitwa.org for further details.

The 5:30 time is no-host cocktail with doors for dinner opening later. Come on by and join us.

ZILLOW BUZZ

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Got my first “issue” of ZILLOW BUZZ this morning. Or actually an email announcing that ZILLOW BUZZ is coming.

ZILLOW really is exciting news…I’m not being sarcastic when I say that. We need a “shot in the arm” in this business.

That being said, I would like to say something about how real agents really value property. I read the “about us” notation on the ZILLOW BUZZ email and it showed how one of the partners had used spreadsheets to value his property. I just saw an elaborate spreadheet done by an owner at “The Newmark” in a downtown Seattle condo. Boy was it elaborate, and boy was it wrong. No way that condo is worth what that excel spreadsheet says it is worth.

The way we value property is on a comparison basis. The more we see the better we can value. That is why we go to Broker’s Opens (at least those of us who aren’t just looking for a free lunch 🙂

We have a mental running calculation in our brains. It goes like this. John’s listing last month sold for $700,000 and it was on the best view corner of the building, remodeled and up on the 21st floor. Better window configuration. Crappy cabinets, but otherwise a great remodel. The wall was knocked out around the kitchen. Penelope’s listing down stairs on the 9th floor had the best unobstructable view, but was 600 square feet smaller. Poor presentation. Owner left his clothes all over the place and it smelled like sweat. Original condition, no remodel and had a “handicapped” bathroom that gave it that “hospital” feel. That one sold for $400,000, but it was a pre-foreclosure with the owner under the gun. So I can list this one at $550,000. It is between the 9th and 21st floors. It is remodeled as to aesthetics, but no walls knocked out. It’s really worth $500,000, but I think I can squeeze an extra $25,000 out of it because it’s “the only game in town” at the moment.

I don’t think a computer can do that. Robbie, can you do a Vulcan Mind Meld? LOL.

Feeling "at home" on the web

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There have been some interesting conversation around the web on Zillow’s business model…

But I’d argue that it is way too early to know their business model. In an interesting interview with Inman News (The link is dead) Rich Barton stated that the purpose of building a home estimation service up front was to get people comfortable using the web to find the value of their home.

Rich also mentioned that when he started Expedia he was frequently advised that he needed to “lock-in” potential ticket buyers before giving them flight information because many people (myself included) would to go the site to find good deals, but go to their travel agent to actually purchase tickets. (Marlow, doesn’t that remind you of something that is going on in real estate right now?). However, Rich stuck to his guns in giving the information up free because he recognized how important it was to get people comfortable with finding travel information on the web. In due time, people became comfortable enough with finding travel information on the web that they did away with the travel agent altogether.

I don’t think Rich’s intentions are the same with real estate agents, but I think he’s looking down the road a few years and seeing that agents are going to be more and more marginalized as home-buying and -selling consumers do the bulk of their purchasing research using web technologies. (I’d also bet that Zillow’s business plan is closer to a sketch than a detailed drawing as he likely recognizes the importance of making things up as he goes along.)

Giving away (for free!) great tools like Zillow’s Zestimator is simply a means to getting people comfortable using the internet to set a value on a home. Nothing more, nothing less. And recognizing that Zillow is a long-term project, I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Rich is developing a bunch more tools that will be a more obvious threat to the status quo of the real estate agent commission structure.

Without a doubt, it is a much softer play than with Expedia where he went head-to-head with travel agents. But then again, the stakes are even higher in the real estate industry.

RCG may have completed the real estate blogging trifecta, but which horse is going to win?

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About a week ago I noted that the Zillow Blog added Rain City Guide to its sidepanel and that I hadn’t found out about both the Redfin Blog or the HouseValues blog because they hadn’t spread any link love. As Rain City Guide hasn’t done much to deserve traffic from either site, I didn’t really expect my comments to make much impact, so I was pleasantly surprised to find that both blogs added Rain City Guide to their sidepanel in less than a few days, thus completing my Seattle-real-estate-search trifecta!

I start with this story because it highlights two timely points I want to make: (1) all real estate is local and (2) business blogs can be shockingly responsive in ways that simply is not possible with a standard business website.

And just as all real estate is local, I’m happy to say that all interesting real estate search technology appears to be local as well. I’ve seen some fun tools come out of New York and California (or should we say CaliYork), but I don’t think it can be argued that the future of real estate is being developed right here in Seattle.

So who is going to win the real estate technology race? Will it be:

I don’t pretend to have the answer, but I sure enjoying keeping score. 😉

The second (and only tangentially related) point I want to make is that business blogs are now the norm for tech companies. When done right these blogs are much more than just a place to put press releases and instead give some great insight into the corporate personality behind the company. Go ahead and read the first few blog entries from each of the big three real estate search sites:

(I’m waiting…)

Here’s is what I read… The Zillow people are a zany, tech bunch who really believe that they can crack the real estate nut through increased data crunching and processing power. The Redfin people have figured out a better business model and now only need to expand so that they can demonstrate efficiencies of scale. The HouseValues people have a laser-like focus on present marketing opportunities, so they really don’t spend much time thinking about the future. Had any of these three companies been blogging a year ago, I’m sure their blogs would read the same! And more interestingly, I’m fairly confident that if I read the “latest” three or four entries from those same three blogs one year from now, those will also read the same because the culture that created those blogs is the same culture that created those companies. There is a real honesty in blogging that is hard to mask. Both a company’s strengths and weaknesses show through in their blogs!

However not everyone sees blogging from this vantage point. Recently, Daniel Gross of Slate signaled the beginning of the end of the business blog, by focusing on all the problems with blogging. But by focusing on the financial aspects of blogging (which often don’t make sense), he misses out on the overwhelmingly positive marketing opportunities associated with adding a friendly face to an otherwise impersonal website. I’m so glad that these three big real estate tech companies out of the Seattle area have all begun blogging because it gives some great insight into the soul behind the companies.

Zillow MLS membership – done

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Zillow gossip of the day (already reported by Dustin in the comments): Rumor has it that Zillow is now a member of the NWMLS and they’re aiming to get a license in every state.

You could spin this as the story of a company that promised an MLS-free “revolution” settling on improving the current system, but business-wise, I think it makes sense; going it alone is a much higher risk strategy that could lead to spectacular failure and would definitely be an uphill battle. This means they can have all the listings of brokerage sites, a way better interface, and sell leads and maybe make more of the process.

In my mind, consumer-centric web design is Zillow’s true innovation in the real estate industry. Even the biggest sites still view the internet as a way to snag customers into using their “real” business. No broker or agent site approximates the consumer-centric feel of Amazon.com circa 2000 or Google and Yahoo today, although I think the race is on to get there. I give Zillow a good shot as it looks like they’re first to market with a trully consumer-oriented, national real estate search site.

-Galen
ShackPrices.com

UPDATE: John Cook of the Seattle PI picked up this story and has some interesting quotes from Zillow vice president Jorrit Van der Meulen, NWMLS Chief Executive Jack Johnson and Redfin Chief Executive Glenn Kelman. Well worth a read.

Dear Mr. Barton,

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As you may or may not know, I emailed you guys a couple of weeks before you unveiled your product to suggest that you consult at least one real estate expert, before going public. I further suggested that since I have sold real estate in five states from coast to coast, that I might be able to help you tweak your product before its unveiling. I feel very badly that some are poking fun at your great real estate adventure, by coining the phrase “You’ve been ZILLOWED!”

Here are a couple of tips for you, (or for Dustin and Galen and Robbie) If you modify your application of data according to these guidelines, you will likely increase the reliability of your online Zestimate by as much as 50%.

Seattle area: Yes, you can value property fairly accurately using the tax data in the Seattle area. But the first step is to determine the appropriate factor. Many will value out at between 1.2 and 1.4 times the assessed value. Hot areas, like downtown Kirkland or parts of Queen Anne, etc will value at 1.5 to 1.6 times assessed value. Don’t take the comps out too far, keep your radius small. Stay as close to the subject property as possible and STOP when you have 5-8 comps after throwing out the High and the Low. DON’T average the sale price of the comps one to another to determine the value of the subject property. DON’T use price per square foot as a guide. Take each sale price and divide by THAT SAME PROPERTY’S assessed value to come up with the factor. If all of the properties in that neighborhood sold at 1.44 times assessed value, then your ZESTIMATE should be 1.44 times the assessed value of the subject property. You can average the factor, but not the price. Then use a range. Chuck the high and the low, the way I learned in grade school from the good Catholic sisters who taught me well.

Example: Data equals 1.8, 1.4, 1.42, 1.43, 1.44, 1.44, 1.45, 1.47, 1.1

Throw out 1.8 and 1.1. as the high is a massive remodel and the low is a fixer. Factor becomes 1.4357142. Assessed value of subject property is $313,000. Zestimate is $449,378.54 or between $438,200 and $460,110.

When inputting tax data, do not overlook the “effective year built”. Currently your program is not noticing that very important date, and reverting to the original year built, throwing the numbers way off on 80% remodels. You can use the 1.8 and 1.1 in the sample above by saying “Your home is valued at between $438,200 and $460,110. If you have just remodeled the interior, the price might be as high as $563,400 (1.8 X $313,000). If it is a fixer it may be as low as $344,300 (1.1 X $313,000).

For Seattle area, always use the assessed value of the subject property against the neighborhood factor.

Briefly, for Los Angeles beach areas: DO use price per square foot, as by and large that area does not have underground basements and the tax assessment increases to sale price every time a property sells (unlike Seattle and many other areas)

Florida: Do use price per square foot and keep the comps apples to apples. Watch the lakes. Price properties on lakes against other property on the lake and interior against interior. You are already OK in FL for the most part, so you can leave that alone.

PA, NJ and most of the Northeast of the country, keep the radius short and use price per square foot. Then find and apply the neighborhood factor and average the two answers.

Hope that helps you, Mr. Barton. Or maybe it will help Robbie and Galen come up with their own “Better than Zillow!”

Have a great sunny day in Seattle!