Triggering My Hot Spot

I have blogged about this before…it is really one of my “hot spots”.   This morning, not only did I receive an email from this company (oh, I mean SPAM) stating that this is information that I requested, which I did not, it is about something I am absolutely against: selling consumer’s information when they’ve had a credit report pulled to become preapproved.    [photopress:trigger.jpg,full,centered]

If you go to their website, they state, “Receive a daily feed of consumers in your target market that just yesterday had their credit checked for a mortgage loan approval.That ’s right, these consumers have just had their credit checked within 24 hrs, specifically for a mortgage loan approval! Now you can provide them with a pre-approval in just a few days for unlimited growth potential.”

Picture this, Mr. and Mrs. Homebuyer meet with a Loan Originator and sign many documents for the preapproval process including disclosure forms that their private information will not be sold. Within hours, they begin to receive relentless phone calls and post cards from other lenders.   It’s too bad the credit bureaus are not a party to this agreement and that it is legal for the bureaus to re-sale credit scores, addresses, phone numbers, debts, etc.

I’ll go eat a box of Valentine’s candies and go chill out in a corner somewhere.

 

 

Tightening Lending Standards: A market conundrum

What will lending standards look like 6 mos. or a year from now? Will lenders with more stringent qualifying standards be a drag on the market? At minimum, it will change the complexion of the pool of buyers. Some ramifications of tighter standards that come to mind:

  • reduces ability of consumers with credit blemishes to purchase a home as easily as before.
  • it may take longer for loans to be pushed through, because
  • borrowers may have to provide more verifiable documentation.
  • lenders may look more carefully at appraisals and implement other safeguards to reduce fraud.
  • reducing the probablity of those buying a home with questionable credit from getting into financial trouble (which leads to distressed properties which leads to downward pressure of prices)
  • a more stable and credit seasoned pool of borrowers, leads to stable and healthy markets.
  • housing affordability becomes much more tied to economic fundamentals vs speculation and artificial housing appreciation.

Over the last three years or so, qualifying for a mortage has been absurdly easy. There is no doubt about it. When my wife and I bought our first house (670 sq ft) in Ballard, I barely qualified for an FHA ARM. I think the underwriters were cringing and looking away when they stamped it “approved.” We had to provide bank statements, two yrs. of tax returns and more.

Today, borrowers with average to low credit scores could get a loan with virtually little oversight. What program buyers qualified for largely depended upon borrowers credit scores. In the end, it really came down to the interest rate you were going to pay. It was never a matter of “if” you could get a loan, rather, it came down to the interest rate and program you were placed in.

A conundrum

In hindsight, most first time homebuyers that closed their purchase transactions though our escrow office put little to nothing down over the last three years. It is still going on today, but not nearly at the tempo that our office experienced in all of 2005 through summer of 2006. First time home buyers drive the market, providing impetus for sellers to move up into a home that suits their current lifestyle. For many, that meant moving to new construction housing. If the first time buyer market slows, everything down stream slows as well.

Through my direct discussion with loan officers, some have indicated that lenders are scrutinizing transactions more carefully. One indicated that a recent appraisal was required to add more comparable homes and provide interior photos of the subject property being purchased.

WMC, a large national lender and a wholly owned subsidiary of GE Finance (my spouse has now informed me that WMC is no longer, but is now taking the GE name) is slated to eliminate all 100% financing with borrowers having FICO scores below 700. Further, they are financing first time home buyers (FTHB’s) at a 95% cap. I take this to mean that FTHB’s will need a 5% down payment. This is quite the turnaround from the loose lending standards we have seen.

If lending standards tighten with or without government intervention, certainly it will have an impact on the ability of buyers with marginal credit to become a homeowner. Those with existing mortgages may find it more difficult to refinance. I can’t help but think of all the 100% financed borrower transactions our office has closed—borrowers that may not have qualified (nor closed) if these guidelines were in place today. In 2005, that meant 71% of our purchase/sale business would have never existed as it did (hard swallow).

Generally, with sales trending slower than in months past, stricter qualifying standards may have enough impact to slow sales further. I hope it does not, but I don’t see the alternative as being realistic. The upside is that the pool of homebuyers may move towards more traditional mortgage products, such as fixed rates. More stringent qualifying standards is a good thing for the market long-term, even if the short-term prognosis is discomfort.

Your Private Information is For Sale

This subject totally irks me…it is just so completely wrong. The three major credit bureaus are selling personal information to hundreds of mortgage companies throughout the country as soon as a credit report is pulled from a mortgage lender. You visit your preferred lender to get preapproved for a mortgage, and whammo…within hours you may start getting calls from other unscrupulous lenders who will even go so far as to pretend to be working with the preferred lender. You’ll also start noticing mailers appearing in your mailbox offering special rates and programs, too. You’re going to feel very popular and probably very annoyed.
Private information is being sold without your consent or knowledge. These mortgage companies buying these trigger list (also referred to as prescreening) are generally “fly by night

Licensed to Loan

This New Year brought significant changes to the mortgage industry. Loan Originators who provide residential loans in Washington State are now required to be licensed. This legislature applies primarily to Mortgage Brokers and not LOs who are employed by banks or credit unions. As I am employed by a Mortgage Broker (technically, we are a Correspondent Lender…I’ll save that for a later article), I thought I would share some tidbits of what I’ve found so far during the first two weeks into the licensing period.

I completed my online application with DFI, submitted my MU4 forms and 2 sets of fingerprints all prior to the due dates so that my background check to determine that I am not a felon and do not have any gross-misdemeanors can be performed. DFI is inundated with applications and they are posting the list of licensed loan originators on line. I’ve been checking the list daily for my name and license number. As of Tuesday, DFI is showing 9,913 licensees from 123 Cash to Zippy Cash. Loan Originators must display their license number on their business cards, loan applications, marketing and websites. This seems kind of odd to me. Realtors and Escrow Officer’s (L.P.O.) do not have to attach their number to their name for the public to see…don’t they trust us?

Currently, Loan Originators who have completed the required steps of the online application, MU4 and fingerprints are operating under an “interim license

Investigating Preapproval Letters

(Editor’s Note: Today I get to introduce yet another contributor! Rhonda Porter is a successful mortgage broker from the Eastside who has been a frequent and much appreciated commenter on RCG as of late. I’m definitely excited that we get to learn more from her years of experience in the industry… She was formally a title representative before getting into mortgage. You can learn more about Rhonda on her personal blog or her website. She can be reached via email or by simply leaving a comment below!

Yesterday, I received a phone call from a Listing Agent regarding a preapproval letter I had prepared for one of the buyers I’m working with. She wanted to confirm that my clients are indeed approved and to find out a bit more information about me since, if she did accept their offer, we would all be working together. She informed me that she calls on all preapproval letters she receives and that often times, lenders may seem not to have all the facts straight on their borrower or respond as if it’s the only transaction they have in their pipeline. Regardless, she gets a better idea of who the lender is that might be involved with her Seller’s transaction. I am really surprised I don’t receive more phone calls from Listing Agents to check out preapproval letters.

[photopress:j0403639.jpg,thumb,alignright]When I sold my house last year, I actually called on one of the preapproval letters we received. The Selling Agent who was presenting the offer thought it was “highly irregular

Interview with The Greg Swann and his Pack of Bloodhounds

Last year around this time, I published a series of interviews with the real estate bloggers that most influenced me of which I was really proud because I learned a lot and it felt like it helped bring the real estate blogging community together in a new way… This year, I’d like to continue that tradition by publishing the same set of interview questions with a new set of influences. With that said…

Sit down, take a deep breath, and prepare for a wonderfully long and informative interview with the top-notch crew over at the Bloodhound Blog.

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Q: What inspired you to start blogging?

A:

  • Greg Swann: I’ve been writing all my life, but my goal in trying to start a workable real estate weblog was the same as other Realtors: I thought it would scare up business. We tried and failed with two other weblogs. We didn’t know what we were doing — in the sense of “linkation!” — but, by being overtly promotional in content, they were boring to me, anyway — contributing greatly to their failure. BloodhoundBlog works, at least for me, because it is fundamentally indifferent to the idea of milking the readership for leads. I’ve come to believe that a real estate weblog with a large, regular readership is a lousy way to generate leads, in any case, but I don’t care anyway. I want to write what I want to write, come what does.

    Rain City Guide has always been a guide for us, of course, but when I decided that we needed to become a group blog to get where we want to go, we pushed for coverage national in breadth. If our luck holds, we’re defining a new idea in real estate weblogging: Commentary by, for and about real estate professionals on a national level.

    I can’t speak for the other contributors, so, in bald-faced defiance of the form you have established for these interviews, I have invited them to speak for themselves. Five took up the challenge: Kris Berg, Brian Brady, Dan Green, Doug Quance and Russell Shaw. Many of them have their own weblogs, and the answers they might give you there could differ from their answers here. But I want to hear — and I thought your readers would be interested to hear — their thoughts on this real estate weblogging cabal we are building here.

  • Russell Shaw: I have been interested in blogging ever since I read the book, Blog, by Hugh Hewitt. It really got me to thinking about how mainstream media no longer controls what is “worthy” and what is not.

    What got me started was Greg was gracious enough to invite me.

  • Dan Green: I began blogging to educate my clients about home loans in a way that they’d never hear from major news outlets. Two years later, I remain true to my audience and I think about The Mortgage Reports like a TV channel. I joined BloodhoundBlog because it exposes my loyal readers to broader issues in real estate and financing as a whole that wouldn’t fit TMR’s “broadcast” menu. BloodhoundBlog is a different channel. My readers may not agree with everything that BloodhoundBlog’s bloggers write — I know I don’t! — but the site’s aim is to present a perspective that readers may not otherwise hear. In this way, BloodhoundBlog is very similar to The Mortgage Reports — the information is not meant to persuade for sales, it’s meant to educate for understanding. The affiliation was a no-brainer to me.
  • Doug Quance: I was getting ready to redo my website, and I felt that a blog format would allow me to get personal with my visitors. When Greg invited me to contribute to BloodhoundBlog, how could I refuse? That’s like the President asking you to serve your country — you can’t turn that down.
  • Kris Berg: My original motivation to begin blogging was slightly less than noble. It was my attempt to keep up with the Jones’. In my business, I have always tried to keep things fresh and innovative. In a business where competition is fierce, it is essential to constantly reevaluate and reinvent. I have seen too many agents with the potential for greatness deliver mediocre results because of their inability to distinguish themselves as leaders. When Greg tagged me from my own baby blog, I saw it as an opportunity to gain additional exposure and a wider audience.
  • Brian Brady: I wanted to write with the best of the best. I started reading Bloodhound about three months ago. I was impressed with the collaborative authorship. When I noticed that we wanted new authors, I decided to “test my mettle in Yankee Stadium.”

Q: Are there any special topics or issues that you enjoy covering?

A:

  • Russell Shaw: Yes. Making my fellow agents more successful. Helping them to navigate the real obstacles and also to recognize those that exist just because someone “created them.”
  • Brian Brady: My efforts are mostly aimed at Realtors about mortgage lending. I find that by educating them about how to do better business with lenders, I can make a contribution.

    I like to write about hard money loans because it is an under-served niche in my industry.

  • Doug Quance: I enjoy myth-busting the best. Most of the public gets bamboozled by what goes on in the real estate business.
  • Dan Green: Many Americans don’t care about European politics or Chinese monetary policy because they don’t make a connection between international news and their personal life. By contrast, I am fascinated by it. Economics is truly a global game and any event — no matter how small — can have drastic consequences on the lives of everyone in America. My favorite topics to cover are those that show the connection and help people to understand how something buried on page 18 in the front section of a newspaper can cause their retirement portfolio to gain (or lose) tremendous amounts of value.
  • Greg Swann: I like technology and the comical kind of hypocrisy. Although I work in residential real estate, I have a deep interest in certain kinds of innovation in commercial real estate development, and I may devote more attention to this in the future.
  • Kris Berg: Ironically, unlike Greg, I never particularly enjoyed writing — until now. It took me several months to find my voice, which finally happened the day I stopped blogging for business and began blogging for kicks. Somehow, my role has evolved into that of the resident humor columnist, the Real Estate Mom if you will. The most successful agents have a hard time separating their work and their life, and this is where I find the lion’s share of my inspiration. I have the most fun relating those silly, everyday events in my personal life back to the business of real estate, because it is all about people.

Q: What have you done to personalize your blog?

A:

  • Greg Swann: There are two answers to that question. In terms of appearance, I took a theme designed by DL2Media and rewrote the Cascading Style Sheets to fit our look and feel. I can hold my own hand in PHP, so I was able to make the modifications I wanted without breaking anything. For example, our Frequent Contributors list runs out of a PHP program using the WordPress Users database. If I add a user, or change some detail, the change is reflected instantly on the web page.

    But taking the question the other way, when we added those Frequent Contributors, I went to some pains to remove my own (very) peculiar personality from the weblog. I built the weblog originally as a subdomain of BloodhoundRealty.com, and there’s nothing I can do about that, by now. We’re too well known, too well linked. But I’ve done what I could to avoid giving our own brokerage an unfair advantage on the weblog. Six of our ten contributors are Realtors, and, if there is any lead-prospecting benefit to real estate weblogging, I want for us all to share in it.

    I own BloodhoundBlog.net and BloodhoundBlog.org, but I didn’t have the wits to buy BloodhoundBlog.com when we started this weblog, last June. That domain is owned by a software company in Texas, and, had I known that at the time, I probably would have called the weblog something else. I may end up owning that domain in due course, and, if so, I will set it up to redirect to our current sub-domain. I’m already using BloodhoundBlog.net, redirected, for our nascent podcasting overtures.

    The point of all this is, we’re big and getting bigger. My goal is to promote the people who have joined us as much as I might promote myself.

Q: Do you have any favorite posts?

A:

  • Kris Berg: I am my own worst critic, and I am never totally pleased once I have hit the “publish” button. If I have to pick a favorite from my short time with the Bloodhound, it would be a post I did on Louis Vuitton and the French Revolution. The title words actually came out of my 14-year-old daughter’s mouth, and I was somehow about to relate it back to Zillow and real estate marketing. I absolutely love it when, as Jeff Brown once said, I can stick the landing.
  • Russell Shaw: The Millionaire Real Estate Agent.
  • Brian Brady: I like Greg’s Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Willie stories because Willie and I share some similarities in background (I think) and ideology.

    Any Russell Shaw post is bound to attract the whackos; I like reading their aimless rants.

  • Greg Swann: My all-time favorite is Apprehending Realtor 2.0: Seven essential skills of the 21st century real estate agent… I can take both sides of that argument, but the long-run trend is in the direction I take in that post: If you are not moving up the technology tree — and fast — you are moving out of the personal-services real estate brokerage business.

Q: What are some of your favorite blogs (real estate or otherwise)?

A:

  • Greg Swann: Totally unfair question: I have over 160 weblogs in my feed reader. From the RE.net, you can bet we like the weblog if we’ve recruited its author as a BloodhoundBlog contributor. There are people we can’t approach (such as RCG’s very talented talent pool), and some we love — such as vendors — who would compromise either us or their employers by working with us. By now, a significant part of my attention, in reading real estate weblogs, is devoted to recruitment.

    Away from the RE.net, I read a lot of weblogging blogs, marketing blogs, SEO blogs, Macintosh-fanatic blogs and techno-geek blogs in general. Lately, TechMeme gets a lot of my time, simply because it links to such interesting content.

  • Brian Brady: Active Rain Real Estate Network. I’ve developed online friendships and a reader following there. I love Freakonomics Blog because of the off-beat hypotheses they formulate to otherwise explained problems.
  • Doug Quance: BloodhoundBlog, of course… and I have many others, but I wouldn’t want to offend those who, because of brevity, wouldn’t make the list.
  • Dan Green: My non-real estate blog list includes a strange mix of PopSugar, Olson’s Observations, Sabernomics, and Copyblogger.
  • Kris Berg: At the risk of sounding gratuitous, Rain City Guide was the first blog I encountered that really made sense to me. Since then, I have discovered many, many others that seem to strike the same, often elusive balance of having local and national appeal, of being instructional and entertaining, and of speaking to industry professionals and consumers. My first stops each morning include Sellsius, The Real Estate Tomato, 360 Digest, 3 Oceans, Bawldguy Talking, The Phoenix Real Estate Guy, Real Central VA, RealEstateUndressed, Blue Roof, and (of course) The San Diego Home Blog, to name but a few. My feed reader includes about forty blogs at the moment, which is far fewer than for a lot of bloggers I know of, but barely manageable for me. I have been slumming over the holidays and currently have 433 feeds to catch up on.

Q: What tools/websites do you find most helpful in putting together your blog?

A:

  • Brian Brady: Reading other blog stories inspires some of my topics. Articles in “Broker” or “Mortgage Originator” magazines help to a lesser extent. Real life issues that face me everyday are fun to write about.
  • Kris Berg: I subscribe to Inman News, which I find essential. And, of course, a good feed reader is a must.
  • Russell Shaw: Google. 🙂
  • Doug Quance: Google… but I could always use more tools…
  • Greg Swann: I think like a programmer. I write in TextWrangler, the free version of BBEdit, a Mac-based programmer’s editor. I’ve been writing in versions of BBEdit since the betas of version 1.0, coming on twenty years. Tremendous search power, including GREP, so I can reformat just about anything in scratch time. This group interview is being put together from multiple email files. The end-product will be assembled, a file at a time, in TextWrangler.

    As a front-end to WordPress, I use Ecto, which allows for multiple accounts on multiple weblogs, with categories and Technorati tags implemented. A number of the BloodhoundBlog webloggers use Ecto.

Q: How does blogging fit into the overall marketing of your business?

A:

  • Doug Quance: It hasn’t, yet… but I believe that the blog will be the preferred way that the public will determine how compatible a particular Realtor may be for them by reading their posts. You can learn a lot about someone by reading what they write.
  • Dan Green: BloodhoundBlog has a different audience from The Mortgage Reports so it has a different place in my broader marketing plan. BloodhoundBlog helps me gain “name recognition” in the real estate space. BloodhoundBlog fills a unique role in that even folks who disagree (or even dislike) the writers still come to visit just to leave comments. There is no other real estate blog that makes as big a footprint at this point in time.
  • Kris Berg: I have never seen blogging as a lead generator in the strictest sense. Any good marketing plan includes a wide variety of activities. In my case, it is unusual when a new client can tell me precisely where they got my name; it is the marketing effort in its entirety that was responsible. Blogging is but one component. What I have found to be most valuable personally is the knowledge I gain from being in touch with issues on a broader, national level and through exposure to varying perspectives among agents on these issues. Of course, improved search engine rankings don’t hurt.
  • Russell Shaw: I don’t believe that blogging has much of anything to do with me “getting business.” I don’t think the general public is reading BloodhoundBlog every day. Other agents and people in the industry are “the public” I write to and for.

    BloodhoundBlog has a much larger audience than I would ever have on my own. All of the technical aspects are handled by an expert, and, if I don’t post for three or four days, people coming to the site still always have something interesting to read.

  • Brian Brady: Blogging has become the “X” factor in my marketing plan. What started as a hobby has become the leading contributor to our loan production, either from direct response to a post or an indirect referral from the real estate blogging community at large. I commit no money but do commit 2-3 hours a day. I’m still figuring how to fit it into my 2007 marketing plan.
  • Greg Swann: Practically speaking, it doesn’t, but I don’t think that way. What we’re really up to is an idea I call The Third Career. Most of us came to real estate from something else, and, as we are wise, we know this is not our last stop in the world of work. My immediate goal for BloodhoundBlog is to make it the best-read, most-rewarding real estate weblog in the RE.net. Further out, I want for our contributors to be so well known that they can pursue other opportunities: Public speaking, freelance writing, books, seminars, television shows, etc. I don’t know that we will attain this, necessarily, but the goal itself is definitely attainable: Witness Glenn Reynolds, the Instapundit.

Q: What plans do you have to improve your blog over this next year?

A:

  • Greg Swann: We’ll be adding both audio and video podcasting, and we’ll be doing a lot more original reporting. We’ll add new writers as we find them or they find us. BloodhoundBlog has 334 Technorati links right now, which is nothing to sneeze at, but one of the things I want to do in the coming year is to swim our way upstream, to become the authoritative real estate resource for technology, political and general interest weblogs. Like RCG, we’re a given in blogrolls for new real estate weblogs. I want for us to be routinely blogrolled higher up the Technorati food chain.

Q: What is the one tool or feature that you wish your site had?

A:

  • Brian Brady: I don’t know… a live chat button? I think a live chat button would help a reader ask a question to an author. I think some readers are hesitant to post comments or questions because of the “Jim Rome” type environment that exists. That said, the “Jim Rome” environment is effective, though, and shouldn’t be replaced.

    The “sanctity of the confessional” sometimes inspires honesty.

  • Doug Quance: A killer mash-up page.
  • Russell Shaw: A list of killer post ideas. 🙂
  • Dan Green: Actually, I am happy that BloodhoundBlog has only a few features. There is a fine line between useful add-ons and gimmicks and I am happy that Greg Swann lives by one of the basic rules of technology: Just because you can do it doesn’t mean you should. Junked-up Web sites remind me a lot of the Flashing Text Syndrome on Web sites circa 1997.
  • Greg Swann: I’d love to know how many RSS subscribers we have. Our on-site traffic is very impressive, but I’d like to know how many people are seeing us through their feed readers.
  • Kris Berg: Spell-checking — and a laugh track!

Q: What do you think real estate blogging will look like 3 years from now?

A:

  • Dan Green: There will be distinct dichotomy in the blogging world and it won’t be limited to real estate blogging. One group will be defined by community-based blogging, complete with deep and engaging conversations about anything and everything; the other will be defined by presence and access to good information for readers. Both groups will feature high quality writing and that will benefit readers immensely. It’s the latter group, though, that is the most intriguing to me.

    Blog-For-You services such as Bring the Blog are removing the roadblocks to blogging and allowing non-technical (and time-crunched) salespeople to include blogging in their marketing plans. Even though their blogs are updated for them daily, these salespeople are adding to their blogs when they have something important to say — this may be once a day, once a week, or once a month. These blogging entries would otherwise have remained hidden from the world if not for Bring the Blog.

  • Russell Shaw: More and more real estate blogs will exist. There will still only be a select few that are actually being read by a wide audience. As more and more companies that sell blogs to agents come into existence more agents will “blog.” Most of the blogs available are not interesting to anybody, including the people who post on them. The exceptions are those writers who have something worthwhile to say and those who post relevant information (that others want).
  • Kris Berg: I said it a year ago, and I say it today. Blogging for the real estate agent will become as necessary as a website and, as in the case of agent websites, there will be some terrific, unique blogs with great appeal to the consumer and there will be many more canned, static blogs with little value. Blogging takes an extraordinary amount of time, energy, creativity and thought. The agents that choose the easy route, that hire others to do their writing and simply throw their checkbook at a template blogging platform with no customization, will find the exercise as effective in generating business and credibility as door-dropping notepads. I believe that those who make the effort, however, will find that they are more knowledgeable, better respected and more effective as agents. And they might just have a little fun along the way.
  • Doug Quance: It will be far more prevalent… perhaps 10-15% of the mainstream agents will have a blog — though far fewer will take the time to keep it current. Even then, so many agents write such boring drivel… and others use each post as if it were an advertisement.
  • Brian Brady: I think blogging will follow the MySpace popularity curve. That is, a HUGE increase in 12-18 months (as in exponentially increased readership to the 15th or 20th power) followed by a tapering off. I think we’ll have 10 times as many eyeballs on BloodhoundBlog in 3 year as we do now. That number should be consistent for years to come.
  • Greg Swann: It looks to me like there is going to be a strong trend toward local content this year, and, obviously, we intend to buck that trend entirely. Day-by-day, month-by-month, we’ll push more in the direction of an on-line magazine — original content presented in arresting prose. In three years, there may be zero, one or two real estate weblogs like BloodhoundBlog. The rest will be something different, I hesitate to guess what.

    I do think the webloggers’ ideal of transparency is at huge risk in the RE.net, not alone because too many of the people who will come on the scene in coming years will want to avoid the time commitment that good weblogging requires. To the extent that the RE.net gets flooded with for-pay or overly-promotional content, it will tend to self-destruct. Consumers may not always be able to tell a hawk from a handsaw — or a Bloodhound from a Bichon Frise — but they will never fail to spot — and switch away from — yet another commercial.

Thank you to all the Bloodhounds for this wonderfully informative interview! Once again, Greg, you’ve outdone yourself! Thanks again!

And if you can’t wait until tomorrow to read another interview, check out these posts from last year:

Exotic Loan Programs and Potential Foreclosures

[photopress:Dollar_20Squeezed.jpg,thumb,alignright]Every “exotic” loan program has a potential appropriate user of that program. What we are seeing more and more today, is the industry using these perfectly good programs inappropriately, to “get the deal done”. Before I go into my take on the situation, let me point out two relevant sites worth reading. One is on “Non-traditional mortgage product risks and the other is HUD’s warning regarding Predatory Lending.

None of the programs being used today are new. What IS new, is the fact that they are being used by the wrong people for the wrong reasons, with the assistance of the real estate professional and the lendng reps. The Feds in their statement, acknowledge that these products have been around for a very long time, and have been used appropriately until recently. On the HUD site, the main point that ties into the “exotic loan” problem, is when lenders are “Making loans without ample consideration to the borrower’s ability to repay”.

Client A has $100,000 in a 30 year bond he purchased 28 years ago with an interest rate of 14%. He has $1,200,000 in various retirement investments. He has $50,000 in a savings account for emergencies. He is 57 years old and is buying a view condo for $750,000 that he plans to live in forever. He earns $200,000 a year and plans to work for at least 8 more years, possibly longer. He decides to buy the condo with zero down and an interest only loan.

That example may sound ludicrous, but 12 years ago they were the ONLY guys I saw using interest only loans. Their investments were earning well over the interest rate on the mortgage. They weren’t going to take money from an investment earning 12% to put down on a property where the mortgage was only costing 7%. Until recently, interest only loans were an investment decision, not a means to qualify for the home purchase.

Basically what the Feds are saying is that the exotic loans are, and have always been, very good programs used sparingly in the past by very savvy and knowledeable people. These lower payments were not meant to be used as a means to qualify for more house than you can afford. They were meant to be used by people who more than qualified at a higher payment, but chose the interest only option for reasons other than to qualify for the home purchase.

The key phrase in the Fed paper is “consideration of a borrower’s repayment capacity”. The key phrase in the HUD warning is “ample consideration to the borrower’s ability to repay”.

Zero down loans replaced VA and FHA for the most part. High rates on the second mortgages replaced PMI. Ten years ago a person might put 5% down and take out a 95% first mortgage and a lower rate, but they had to pay “Private Mortgage Inurance” on the top 15% of the LTV. The PMI amount was not tax deductible. The payment on the second at the higher rate was lower than the loan plus PMI payment and fully tax deductible. A conventional loan with a high rate second may “look” bad, but actually the numbers usually work better than a regular loan with PMI (the old fashioned way) or a 3% down FHA with an up front plus monthly MIP (Mortgage Insurance Premium).

Bottom line is that ALL of the “exotic” loan programs have valid and good uses. Let’s include “stated income”. Stated Income loans have long been used appropriately by people who more than qualified for the loan. Stated Income was often used by someone who had income they didn’t or couldn’t report on their tax return. There was no question but that they could afford the monthly payment, problem was they couldn’t PROVE it, or were not willing to prove it. Maybe it was some limo driver earning $23,000 a year and getting $1,000 in tips he wasn’t reporting. Maybe it was someone with a cash business that was showing $65,000 a year on his tax return and stuffing the rest in his mattress. Maybe it was a prostitute or a mob member…whatever. It was someone who could make the payment, it was just somebody who didn’t want to prove that they were able to make the payment, and so used a “stated income” loan. Stated Income loans are not supposed to be used as a means to “pretend” that you make more than you DO earn.

Zero down loans are NOT for investors! Yes I will yell that one from the tallest building. I heard that lenders “start to question” a guy who has SEVEN zero down loans in a short period of time. DUH! Why’d you let him get to seven, when he shouldn’t have had ONE! Zero down loans are only for people buying a home to LIVE in it.

So, bottom line. When you start seeing foreclosures, don’t assume the market is headed south. Understand that lenders are not following the Fed and HUD guidelines to give “ample consideration to the borrower’s ability to repay” before approving the loan. Maybe the guy who bought at $450,000 only qualified at $400,000 and was stretched beyond his limit. Maybe the guy who bought 6 homes zero down, stacked costs and stated income in 18 months time, got caught in the web he weaved when first he to practiced to deceive, the underlying lender with full knowledge of the real estate agent and the loan broker. Maybe all the guys who took the $6,000 seminar on how to buy lots of property with no money and no job, are all going down…but that doesn’t mean they are going to take the whole market down with them.

I went to a closing with someone else’s client as a “favor”. I got to the table and asked them if they knew that the payment including taxes and insurance was 60% of their gross income! The lender said, “the lender isn’t impounding taxes and insurance”. The buyer said, “We thought the payment was going to be $300 less than that AND included the taxes and insurance. They asked me if they could sell the house in six months if it was impossible to make the payment. I said not with the costs stacked into the price and the prepayment penalty stacked on top of that. I stood up from the table and said, no one is signing today. How many foreclosures will come about because no one stood up and said, “No one is signing today”.

If someone readily qualifies for the payment at say 33% of their gross income (not 60%!) and has a reasonable “back end” when you add their other debt payments to say 40% (not 73%) and isn’t using stated income, no impounds, interest only and subprime loans to get around the high back end, all is fine.

The “Exotic” programs have their place in the lending industry. We just have to stop agents and lenders from using these programs inappropiately as loopholes to “Get the Deal Done”. If the buyer doesn’t like any of the homes he can afford, send him home. Don’t send him to a lender who can figure out how he can qualify to buy a more expensive house, that he will like better, but can’t really afford.

Cocktail Party Primer

I’d like to open this thread up to a conversation on the health of the Seattle market…

but there is a catch. I will not allow it to dissolve into a conversation about racism, liberals, RCG, or faith. If you’d like to have a reasonable intellectual conversation, you are more than welcome to participate. If you attack me, RCG, or any contributor, then I’ll happily delete your comment.

By the way, please consider this post the “anti-linkbating” post. Not only will I quickly delete any off topic comments, but more importantly, I will mark those comments as “spam”. That will allow me to ban your email, name, IP, etc. from the site after only a few off-topic comments.

Two days ago, Michael Lindekugel of Team Reba made a very interesting comment. No one ever challenged him on the merits of his argument, so I think it makes an appropriate starting point into a discussion on the health of the Seattle market:

It’s the hot topic at most cocktail parties. Is Seattle going to experience a bubble and burst? The short answer is no…..the long answer follows:

We experienced a busy market with a shortage of supply and increasing demand resulting in four or five offers and short “Days On Market

Moving Forward…

I’ve been a little busy lately, so I haven’t had a lot of time to give an update on some of my favorite conversations around the web… Nonetheless, I’m back for an abrivated version (i.e. only 9 articles instead of the usual 10)…

Beau turned me on to a great article by Jay regarding the 30-year trend for Mortgage Rates… Interesting stuff. Also, don’t miss Jay’s tribute to Harry Ramos

I just got an email from someone at Windermere letting me know about Windermere’s new (beta) mapping platform… This is an update to the beta mapping platform they released a little over a year ago and I think they’ve made some great improvements… Here are some features I like: (1) Simple map-based search, (2) intuitive zoom feature, (3) Simple pop-up interface, (4) the filter tool is relatively straightforward, (5) viewing the details doesn’t require a page reload, (6) same with viewing the “list of homes”, (7) saving, emailing and/or contacting an agent can all be done without leaving the map view (8) simple city, state, zip box allows for easy navigation to distant locations… The only complaint I have is that the design doesn’t feel polished, but considering it is a beta and the technology works well, the design is minor…

Steve Weise also let me know about his map-based appraisal tool he recently released and asked me to solicit feedback from the RCG community… His interface is too GIS-specific for my tastes, but maybe other’s will find it interesting and/or useful.

Clever, but probably too simplistic, Rob let me know about his collection of quotes that compare the great depression to today’s housing market. Any way you look at it, he provides a good read…

Greg picked up the new Move commercials on YouTube… The latest fun news around Move is that my favorite commercial (Search) got picked up by AdForum and is currently displayed on their front page!

I really like how Zachary picked up the ball and started posting videos of his properties… They are not high art, but I think they are darn useful, especially for someone selling land in such a beautiful area!

Sometimes being a great agent means divulging the good with the bad… Osman tells us how people can and do loose money in real estate

I hate homework too!!!

The NYTimes real estate blog is officially dead. (although it is everywhere now, I first saw it on Luxury Sarasota Living). I can’t say I’m particularly sad, because the main editor seemed to have such a thing against real estate agents that his blogging on the subject just wasn’t very interesting… (Marlow also noticed this tendency of Damon).

How much for the bathroom?

  1. [photopress:WWCG_logo_JPG.JPG,full,alignright]Frances Flynn Thorsen is raising 100K with the Web Women Giving Circle for CARE — a humanitarian organization that works with women to fight global poverty.
  2. There is no good follow up item because everything else is void of the meaning in comparison. I recommend (1) following the links in the first point, (2) donate some money and/or time and (3) repeating the process until it creates an infinite loop of giving.
  3. NAR has whole pages on the social benefits of homeownership. “Homeownership also provides many benefits to the family, children and the community, such as increased education for children, lower teen-age pregnancy rate and a higher lifetime annual income for children, as discussed in the following articles and studies.” Does anyone really believe homeownership causes these things? I don’t doubt that there is a correlation, but causality?
  4. Joshua Dorkin decides to one-up (make that 22-up) Cheryl, and lists his top 35 real estate blogs!
  5. Fliperati is searching for good investment blogs… (I am too!)
  6. How much is a bathroom worth? depends on how bad you gotta go…
  7. Today’s seemingly random plug for a decent person: Seattle Agent Ann Bergstrom.
  8. I noticed some traffic coming from a MarketWatch article on the value of agents despite the web. Looks like RCG is featured in the sidepanel as an area to keep up with real estate trends. Very cool!
  9. Tom has a different take than MarketWatch his comments on how the web is helping agents compete.. He quotes an article I found most interesting because people like Brad Inman and Greg Sterling comment on the type of real estate companies that will survive a soft housing market.
  10. Dean is asking what I (and you) think of 50-year mortgages? Personally, I despise acting desperate in anything I do, and 50-year mortgages reek of desperation.